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Sat TV Trends: 12th May 2018

Another jam-packed day Saturday on the horse racing front with the ITV4 cameras heading to Ascot, Haydock and Lingfield  - we've 8 races in total that include the Victoria Cup, Swinton Hurdle, plus the Lingfield Derby and Oaks Trials - As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV contests covered from a trends and stats angle.

Saturday 12th May 2018

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

3.10 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
15/15 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
15/15 – Carried 11-5 or less
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
10/15 – Irish bred
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
3/15 – Ran at Ayr last time out
3/15 – Trained by Evan Williams (3 of the last 5 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 12 winners returned 16/1
John Constable (5/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.15 – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Cl3 1m4f ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/7 – Won 2 or 3 times before
7/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Rated between 86 and 91
6/7 – Carried 9-4 or less
5/7 – Aged 4 years-old
5/7 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/7 – Won on reappearance run (last 4)
4/7 – Drawn in stalls 5-8 (inc)
4/7 – Horses from stall 11 placed (1 winner)
4/7 – Had raced at Ascot before
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

 

2.50 - Carey Group Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Had won 3 or more times before
7/12 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/12 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
6/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/12 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
2/12 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

 

3.25 - EBF Breeders´ Series Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

12/12 – Failed to win last time out
12/12 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
11/12 – Had won over a mile before
10/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
8/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/12 – Aged 4 years-old
8/12 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
7/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Rated between 82-87
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

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4.00 – Totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

14/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 7f before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Had won no more than 3 times
11/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before (4 winners)
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The last 5 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.55 - Betfred Mobile Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

13/14 – Had won no more than once before
11/14 – Had no more than 3 career runs
11/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Came from stall 5 or higher
9/14 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
8/14 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
7/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Having first run of the season
6/14 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Winners from stall 5
4/14 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
3/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

2.30 - Betfred Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

15/15 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (no winners)
11/15 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
4/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
The last winner to go on and win the Epsom Derby was High Rise 1998

 

3.40 - Betfred "Supports Jack Berry House" Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

12/12 – Aged 5 or younger
11/12 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
10/12 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Had won over 7f before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/12 – Irish-bred
6/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Non UK-trained winners
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
2/12 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 9 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2


 

 

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