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2019 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 14th March 2019)

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY THREE: Thursday 14th March 2019

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2018 Winner: SHATTERLED LOVE (4/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • 7 of the 8 winners were Irish-trained
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • All 8 past winners had run at the Festival before
  • 7 of the 8 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 8 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 7 of the last 8 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 8 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 8 renewals

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just one British-trained runner so far
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 8
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 3 winning favourites in 8 runnings (1 co)
  • Just 1 of the last 8 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2018 Winner: DELTA WORK (6/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or older
  • 8 of the last 9 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • 10 of the last 18 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 8 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 18 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

  • Just 4 Irish-trained winners in the last 13 runnings
  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • French-bred horses are currently on a run of 1-80
  • All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
  • 1 winning favourite in last 13 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 5 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 2 from 37

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2018 Winner: BALKO DES FLOS (8/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 19 of the 27 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 5 of the last 6 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 9 of the last 11 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 25)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 14 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 10 of last 14 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out
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Negatives….

  • The Irish are 3 from 43 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 3 of the last 11 won last time out
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

15:30 Sun Racing Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

2018 Winner: PENHILL (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

 

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 14 won last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 17 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 14 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 12 of the last 14 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (2 from 19)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 63
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 52)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2018 Winner: THE STORYTELLER (5/1 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 31 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 21 runnings
  • 16 of the last 18 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 27 winners had run at the Festival before (but 6 of last 8 were having Festival debut)
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 17 of the last 19 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 13 years
  • 3 of last 24 won with 11st+
  • Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have poor records

16:50 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

2018 Winner: LAURINA (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

A new race (Just three renewals)
Favourites have all three runnings
All three past winners won last time out
All three winners have been aged 5 years-old
Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017 & 2018
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2016, 2017
Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

2018 Winner: MISSED APPROACH (8/1)
Trainer – Warren Greatrex
Jockey – Mr N McParlan

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 7 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 17 of the last 19 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 10 winners
  • Nina Carberry placed 6 times, Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times

Negatives….

  • Just two Irish winners for 35 years (but have won 2 of the last 5)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 20
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 56 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 85 since 2009

 

 

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2019 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 15th March 2019)

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 15th March 2019

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2018 Winner: FARCLAS (9/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses…..

  • 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 12 places (last 4 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 14 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 15 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 7 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 11


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2018 Winner: MOHAAYED (33/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Bridget Andrews

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 12 runnings
  • 4 of the last 11 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • The last 13 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 11 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 10 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 11 of the last 15 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 15 years
  • 10 of the last 18 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 10 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 27 (+19pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 30 (+49pts)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 4 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 8 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005 134 runners rated 140+ have lost
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2018 Winner: KILBRICKEN STORM (33/1)
Trainer – Colin Tizzard
Jockey – Harry Cobden

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Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 14 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 14 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 12 of the last 14 had run in a race over 3m
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 13 favourites won

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 32 in the race
  • Only 3 of the last 14 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2018 Winner: NATIVE RIVER (5/1)
Trainer – Colin Tizzard
Jockey – Richard Johnson

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 19 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 16 of the last 18 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 had won or placed 2nd at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 18 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 10 of the last 11 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 22 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 13 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 19 winners were aged 9 or younger

 

Negatives….

  • Non Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 70)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 4 from last 24
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 80)
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 26 (had last 4 of the last 6 seconds though)
  • Just 1 of the last 11 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their 1st Gold Cup are 1 from 67 when running again

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2018 Winner: PACHA DU POLDER (25/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Miss Harriet Tucker

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 28 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 24 of the last 33 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 26 of the last 30 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 13 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 8)
  • 5 of the last 7 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 7 of the last 10 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 26 of the last 27 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 4 from 221 since 1990

 

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2018 Winner: LE PREZIEN (15/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 19 winners carried 11st or less
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 7 of the last 15 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side (won 3 of the last 6)
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 8 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 10 runnings
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 23 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just six winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 13
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 27 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2018 Winner: BLOW BY BLOW (11/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Donagh Meyler

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • Irish have won 5 of the last 8 (all making handicap debuts)
  • 28 of the 30 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 8 of the 10 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 10 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the 10 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 10 winners returned at a double-figure price (8 of the last 10 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 9 of last 10 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 14 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 8 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 3 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 6 years

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 10 year history (7/9 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 48
  • Only 2 winners have previous Festival experience

 

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2019 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 12th March 2019)

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY ONE: Tuesday 12th March 2019

13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

2018 Winner: SUMMERVILLE BOY 9/1
Trainer – Tom George
Jockey - Noel Fehily

Pluses…..

  • 19 of the last 22 winners won their last race
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 18 of the last 24 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 15 of the last 27 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 13 of the last 14 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times since 2007 and for 3 of the last 6 years
  • 22 of the last 24 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci, Trainer Willie Mullins & Jockey Ruby Walsh have won 3 of the last 6 runnings.

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 22. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (35) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

2018 Winner: FOOTPAD 5/6 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey - Ruby Walsh

 

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 14 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 9 winners won last time out (plus 14 of the last 18)
  • 18 of the last 19 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 11 of the last 15 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
  • 11 of the last 18 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 32 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just two of the last 28 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 27 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

2018 Winner: COO STAR SIVOLA 5/1 fav
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey - Lizzie Kelly

 

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Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 19 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 13 of the last 18 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 19 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 18 were novices or second season chasers
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were rated between 142-146
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 11 of the last 18 runnings
  • 8 of the last 16 won last time out
  • 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • 6 of the last 7 winners all wore headgear
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before

Negatives….

  • Avoid any horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 9 of the last 14 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 22
  • Only 1 winner in the last 10 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival

 

15:30 Stan James Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

2018 Winner: BUVEUR D’AIR 4/6 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey - Barry Geraghty

 

Pluses….

  • 29 of the last 35 won last time out
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 16 of the last 20 runnings
  • The Irish have won 12 of the last 20 runnings
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 23 of the last 34 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 11 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 23 winners started as flat horses
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times, including the last two years

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 1 from 101 since 1985
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are 3 from 26

 

16:10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

2018 Winner: BENIE DES DIEUX 9/2
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey - Ruby Walsh

 

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 10 of the last 11 runnings
  • 7 of the last 11 favourites have won
  • Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 10 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • All 25 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • Just 1 winner of the race to date began their career racing on the flat

 

16:50 The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

2018 Winner: MISTER WHITAKER 13/2
Trainer – Mick Channon
Jockey - Brian Hughes

 

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 14 winners raced in the last 45 days
  • Respect 7 year-olds
  • Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
  • 6 of last 10 won last time out
  • 12 of the last 14 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd)
  • Look for Henderson, O’Neill & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
  • Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
  • The Irish are just 2 from the last 14 runnings

17:30 National Hunt Chase   4m

2018 Winner: RATHVINDEN 9/2
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey - P Mullins

 

Pluses…..

  • 11 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
  • 4 of the last 8 winners were top-rated
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 6 of the last 12 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were rated 146 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned (6 winners) runners
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 13 rides)

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 78 since 1989
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race

 

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2019 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 13th March 2019)

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 13th March 2019

 

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f


2018 Winner: SAMCRO (8/11 fav)
Trainer –Gordon Elliott
Jockey - Jack Kennedy


Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 18 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13
  • All of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 8 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 14 of the 24 top 3 places
  • 18 of the last 20 were NH bred
  • 13 of the last 20 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (5 of the last 9 begin their careers in Irish points)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 14 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 54 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 33 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 16 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten)

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2018 Winner: PRESENTING PERCY (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Patrick Kelly
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 9 of the last 11
  • 9 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 12 favourites won (50%)
  • Irish bred horses are 18 from the last 22
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 22 of the last 26 were novice hurdling last season
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 52 winners had)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid unbeaten horses over fences
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 1 of the last 19 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • All 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 24

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2018 Winner: BLEU BERRY (20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh

 

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Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 14 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 11 of the last 13 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 24 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (2 wins each in last 9 years)
  • 9 of the last 17 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 25 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 10)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 10 winners)
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 9

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 15 years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 301to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
  • Only 4 of the last 18 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • The last 74 horses wearing headgear have been beaten
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race last year, but overall has a bad record – 29 runners – just one placed inside the top 2

 

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2018 Winner: ALTIOR (Evs)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 18 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 3 of the last 6 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 22 of the last 34 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 7 of the last 11 between them
  • 15 of the last 16 winners had run that calendar year
  • 35 of the last 37 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 19 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 12 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 36 years
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 13 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (7/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 12 of the last 14 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 8 of the last 14 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 15 between them)
  • 11 or the last 14 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 16

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2018 Winner: VENEER OF CHARM (33/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • Respect Fillies
  • 7 of the last 8 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 10 of the last 14 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 7 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • The last 13 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 9 runnings

 

Negatives….

  • Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 29 between them
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 12 (and all not placed in the top 5 either)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before

 

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2018 Winner: RELEGATE (25/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Katie Walsh

Pluses….

  • 24 of the last 26 had won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (19 from 35)
  • 4 of the last 9 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 17 of the last 26 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 26 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 18 winners were second season horses
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 16 of the last 18 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 16 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 34 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 20-7 in the race history

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 58 since 2000
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

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