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Aintree Trends: Sat 10th April 2021

As we head into the last day of the 2021 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 10th April 2021 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle and The Doom Bar Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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SATURDAY, 10th April 2021 (ITV/Racing TV)

 

2.20pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

2019 Winner: RESERVE TANK (20/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

16/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
15/17 – Raced 39 days or less ago
14/17 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/17 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/17 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 10 favs have won)
7/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 9 runnings)
Ballymore Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
10 of the last 11 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
17 of the last 22 (77%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 16 (50%) runnings between them
7 of the last 10 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 24 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 31 years
8 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter

 

3.00pm – The Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2019 Winner: ORNUA (3/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Davy Russell

17/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
17/17 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
17/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
11/17 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/17 – Irish-trained winners
2/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 9 runnings)
3/17 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 7 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 5-7 in the last 21 years and 3-from-3 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 4 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2019
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
19 of the last 25 (76%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 11 winners were French bred
9 of the last 12 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
10 of the last 13 winners started their chasing careers with 7 or less runs over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 21 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 23 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

 

3.35pm – The Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2019 Winner: IF THE CAP FITS (7/1)
Trainer: Harry Fry
Jockey: Sean Bowen

14/16 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/16 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/16 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/16 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
11/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/16 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Number of Irish-trained winners
14 of the last 16 (88%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 16 (94%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 16 (81%) had run at this meeting before
13 of the last 16 (81%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 11 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 11 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this
Previous winners of the race are currently 5-from-5
Horses rated 170+ are currently 5-from-6
No winner older than 9 years-old

 

4.15pm – Betway Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2019 Winner: KILDISART (8/1)
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

14/17 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/17 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
10/17 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/17 – Unplaced in their last race
4/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 10)
2/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/17 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable (4-from-9 since 2000)
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 21 winners were aged 10+
Only 3 winners carried more than 11st in the last 16 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 43 runnings
9 of the last 10 (90%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 13 winners didn’t win earlier that season
6 of the last 8 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 14 winners won last time out

 

5.15pm – The Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 ½f ITV

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL (4/1 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

  • 28/29 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
    · 28/29 – Officially rated 137 or higher
    · 27/29 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
    · 25/29 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
    · 24/29 – Aged 9 or older
    · 23/29 – Returned a double-figure price
    · 23/29 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
    · 22/29 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
    · 21/29 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
    · 19/29 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
    · 18/29 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
    · 18/29 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
    · 16/29 – Placed favourites
    · 16/29 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
    · 16/29 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
    · 15/29 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
    · 11/29 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
    · 10/29 – Trained in Ireland (inc 7 of the last 14 years)
    · 6/29 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
    · 7/29 – Ran in a previous Grand National
    · 7/29 – Won last time out
    . 3/29 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
    · 2/29 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
    · 2/29 – Ridden by Davy Russell
    · 2/29 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
    · 0/29 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 126 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 16 of the last 21 winners were bred in Ireland
  • Only 3 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
  • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
  • 13 of the last 23 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 17 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 18 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 26 renewals
  • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 35 years (77 have attempted)
  • 21 of the last 23 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019).
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were having their first run in the race
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 16 of the last 21 winners were Irish-bred
  • Gigginstown House Stud Owners are 3-from-4
  • Only 1 winning 12 year-old in the last 24 years
  • 21 of the last 23 winners had fallen no more than twice before
  • Only 2 of the last 36 winners had won or been placed in a previous Grand National

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (17 Year)

16/17 – Had won over at least 3m previously
15/17 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/17 – Officially rated 137 or higher
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
10/17 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
10/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/17 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/17 – Experienced the National fences before
7/17 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/17 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/17 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/17 – Won by the McCain yard