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2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 19th March 2021)

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 19th March 2021)

Each day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know, all of the last 18 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger?

 


Friday 19th March 2021 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

 

 1.20 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2020 Winner: BURNING VICTORY 12/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses…..

  • 21 of the last 27 winners won last time out
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 5 of the last 8 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 10 of the last 16 places (last 6 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 16 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 17 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 15 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 11 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 7 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 16 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 race – currently 1-from-29

 

 

  1.55 - McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

 

2020 Winner: SAINT ROI 11/2 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 9 of the last 14 runnings
  • The last 6 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton
  • Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 16 of the last 20 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 4 of the last 13 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 14 of the last 15 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 13 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 6 of the last 12 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 11 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 11 of the last 22 winners aged 5
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 9 of the last 14 winners Irish-trained
  • 8 of the last 13 winners started their careers in France
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 17 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • The last 5 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 30 (+16pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 38 (+47.5pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 5 renewals (2 of last 3)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (158 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last year’s winner defied this trend
  • 0 of the last 7 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
  • Just 2 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-from-32) since 2000
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-17) last 10 years

 

 

 2.30 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2020 Winner: MONKFISH 5/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 16 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 14 of the last 16 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 15 of the last 16 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had won a Point
  • 5 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 16 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 16 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 14 of the last 16 had run in a race over 3m
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 15 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 14 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 15 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles (1 from 16)
  • Willie Mullins is 2 from 38 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 4
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-7
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 16 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

 

3.05 - WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2020 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 17 of the last 21 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 18 of the last 20 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 18 of the last 21 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • All of the last 21 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 16 of the last 20 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 17 of the last 20 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 12 of the last 13 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 16 of the last 20 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 15 favourites won
  • 9 of the last 18 winners were favourirtes
  • 12 of the last 16 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 21 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 20 of the last 21 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 19 of the last 21 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record (6-from-6 this century)

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 34
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 33 (had 4 of the last 8 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 1 of the last 13 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Trends

18/18 – Aged 9 or younger
17/18 – Had raced within the last 3 months
16/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
14/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
14/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
11/18 – Rated 170 or higher
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Had last raced in the previous calendar year
8/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/18 – Irish-trained winners
5/18 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
4/18 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Ran in the Lexus Chase last time out
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 18 renewals is 11/2

Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
26 of the last 27 winners have been aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 19 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
17 of the last 20 winners were rated 166 or higher
20 of the last 22 winners had won a race already that current season
14 of the last 20 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
11 of the last 21 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
All of the previous 21 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest before
The last winner aged older than 10 was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – UK v Irish

 

16/23 – British-trained winners
7/23 – Irish-trained winners (3 of last 5 though)
Willie Mullins (Ire) has trained just two winners
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 3 of the last 13 winners (4 in total)

 

3.40 - St James's Place Foxhunter Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2020 Winner: IT CAME TO PASS 66/1
Trainer – Eugene O’Sullivan
Jockey – Miss M O’Sullivan

Pluses…..

  • 26 of the last 30 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 35 won last time out
  • 17 of the last 18 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 14 winners were yet to win over this trip
  • 6 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 12 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 28 of the last 32 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 15 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 7 of last 10)
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 12 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 9 of the last 11 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 8, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 44 years aged 12 or older
  • 27 of the last 29 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just 1 6 year-old winner in the last 33 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-81 (last 18 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 245 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

 

 

 4.15 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

New Race – No Key Trends

 

4.50 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

 

2020 Winner: INDEFATIGABLE 25/1
Trainer – Paul Webber
Jockey – Rex Dingle  

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 12 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 9 of the last 10 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 12 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • The last three winners had top-weight
  • All 12 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 7 or the last 9 winners rated 139+
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 4 of the last 7 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 10 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 35 of the 37 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 10 of the 12 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 6 of the 12 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 12 winners were rated 133-139
  • 8 of the 12 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 12 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 12 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 19 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 10 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 8 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 20, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 48
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 12-year history (8/11 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 59
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-89