Posts

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 16th March 2021)

Each day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 31 of the last 37 winners won last time out.

 

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Tuesday 16th March (Old Course)   

 

1.20 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

 

2020 Winner: SHISHKIN 6/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 21 of the last 24 winners won their last race
  • 14 of the last 17 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 9 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 8 of the last 9 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
  • 20 of the last 26 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 29 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 15 of the last 16 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 8 years
  • 24 of the last 26 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 8 runnings (5 of the last 14)
  • 5 of the last 7 winners had been rated 153 or more
  • 8 of the last 9 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
  • 7 of the last 8 winners returned a single-figure price
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were previous bumper winners

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 24. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
  • Just 2 of the last 18 winners came here unbeaten
  • Just 1 of the last 18 winners aged 7 or older
  • Just 1 outright winning favourite in the last 16 runnings
  • Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
  • Nicky Henderson is 2 from 39 since 1993 (Shishkin (2020) and Altior (2016) his two winners for this period)

 

1.55 - Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2020 Winner: PUT THE KETTLE ON 16/1
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

 

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 15 of the last 21 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 11 winners won last time out (plus 16 of the last 20)
  • 19 of the last 21 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
  • 12 of the last 17 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
  • 11 of the last 20 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over fences
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 6 runnings (all French-bred)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 34 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just 3 of the last 30 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 29 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • 5 year-olds are 0-12 in the last 12 years
  • Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

 

 

2.30 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2020 Winner: THE CONDITIONAL 15/2
Trainer – David Bridgewater
Jockey – Brendan Powell

 

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 21 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 15 of the last 20 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 21 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 20 were novices or second season chasers
  • 7 of the last 13 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 20 runnings
  • 9 of the last 18 won last time out
  • Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
  • 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
  • 4 of the last 7 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy that season
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

  • Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 10 of the last 16 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2020 winner, The Conditional, carried 10-6
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 49 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
  • Only 2 winners in the last 12 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
  • The Irish have won just 2 of the last 52 runnings (since 1967)
  • Irish-trained runners are 0-26 in the last 14 runnings

 

 

3.05 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

 

2020 Winner: EPATANTE 2/1 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 31 of the last 37 won last time out
  • Horses unbeaten that season often do well (8 of last 10)
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 18 of the last 22 runnings between them
  • 9 of the last 12 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 22 runnings
  • Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 11 (9 in total)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 runnings
  • 26 of the last 31 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (10 of last 14)
  • 12 of the last 22 winners had won at the Festival before
  • 23 of the last 36 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 13 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 25 winners started as flat horses
  • The last 6 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 4 years
  • 6 of the last 12 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 2 from 105 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-29 in the last 38 runnings)
  • Just 1 of the last 14 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 4 from 30, but last year’s winner – Epatante – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
  • Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
  • International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 17 runnings)
  • Only 2 of the last 22 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before

Key Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Betting Trends

 

17/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
15/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Rated 159 or higher
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Had finished in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race the season before
13/18 – Had won 6 or more times over hurdles before
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/18 – Irish-bred winners
10/18 – Irish trained winners
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or more
8/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/18 - Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/18 – Ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle
6/18 – Had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival the previous season
4/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 8 times in all)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 8/1

Other Champion Hurdle Stats:
5 year-olds are just 3 from 106 since 1985
31 of the last 37 winners won their previous race
23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the top 4 at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival
22 of the last 25 winners had a race that calendar year (i.e we are looking for horses that have run in 2020)
27 of the last 30 winners hailed from the first 6 in the betting market
Just 4 of the last 30 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone onto win the Champion Hurdle that season
Irish-trained horses have won 13 of the last 22 renewals

 

Champion Hurdle – UK vs Ireland (Last 23 Years)

13/23 – Irish-trained winners
10/23 – British-trained winners

 

 

3.40 - Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2020 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE 9/4
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

 

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares (11 of last 13)
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 11 of the last 13 runnings
  • 7 of the last 13 favourites have won
  • 12 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m4f
  • Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 12 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
  • Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
  • 11 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • British-bred mares are currently 1-80
  • All 28 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race

 

 

4.15 - Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2020 Winner: ARAMAX 15/2
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 16 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • 9 of the last 16 winners started their careers in France
  • Respect Fillies
  • 8 of the last 16 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 11 of the last 16 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 9 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • 10 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 12 of the last 16 winners were rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 13 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 11 runnings
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

 

Negatives….

  • Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 33 between them
  • Just 2 of the last 16 winners rated 135+
  • Horses bred in Britain are 0-54 (last 12 years)
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 1 from the last 11 years
  • British-bred runners are currently 0-51

 

4.50 - Sam Vesty National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

 

2020 Winner: RAVENHILL 12/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

 

Pluses…..

  • 11 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
  • 4 of the last 10 winners were top-rated
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
  • 5 of the last 10 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 7 of the last 14 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 7 of the last 11 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • 7 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 145 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-21)
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 15 rides)
  • Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 10 (3, Codd, 2 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 6
  • Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 8 runners

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
  • Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
  • Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 9)
  • Just 2 winners in the last 13 returned bigger than 12/1

 

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 17th March 2021)

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 17th March 2021)

Each day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win!

 

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 17th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

 

1.20 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2020 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 4/7 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 5 of the last 7 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 12 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 16 of the last 20 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 25 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 18 (6 of last 7)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 21 of the last 26 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
  • All of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 10 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 18 of the 30 top 3 places
  • 20 of the last 22 were NH bred
  • 14 of the last 22 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (7 of the last 11 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 8 placed in last 15 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 56 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 35 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 15 years)

 

 

1.55 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2020 Winner: CHAMP 4/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • The last 19 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 23 of the last 26 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 14 (16 of last 21)
  • 9 of the last 15 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 13 winners had won a bumper before
  • 6 of the last 14 favourites won
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 20 from the last 24
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (10 of the last 17 between them)
  • 23 of the last 28 were novice hurdling last season
  • 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (52 of the last 54 winners had)
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • The last 6 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 21 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • The last 22 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 21 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 30

 

 

 2.30 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2020 Winner: DAME DE COMPAGNIE (5/1 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 16 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 17 of the last 20 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 9 of the last 12 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 13 of the last 21 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 7 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 12 of the last 15 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 26 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (6 wins in last 11 years)
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 14 of the last 27 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 12)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 12 winners)
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 11
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 17 years (2020)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 41 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 36 in last decade)

 

 

3.05 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

 

2020 Winner: POLITOLOGUE 6/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 20 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 8 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 23 of the last 36 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 9 of the last 13 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 9
  • 14 of the last 20 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run that calendar year
  • 37 of the last 39 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 21 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 18 winners were second season chasers
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 21 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 16 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 2-from-30
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race (0-from-10)
  • Just 1 of the last 19 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 47 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 42 years
  • No Mare has ever won the race

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting Trends

16/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/18 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
16/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – French bred
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
6/18 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
4/18 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out
4/18 – Had won the race before
3/18 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/2

 

Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

 

14 of the last 20 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
22 of the last 36 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
38 of the last 39 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16 of the last 19 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
18 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously

 

Champion Chase – 23 Year Trends

17/23 – British-trained winners
6/23 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) is yet to train the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 5 of the last 9 winners (won the race 6 times in total)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 6 of the last 21 winners
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
Jessica Harrington (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 18 winners

 

 

3.40 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2020 Winner: EASYSLAND 3/1
Trainer – David Cottin
Jockey – Jonathan Plouganou

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 16 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 19 of the last 23 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 9 of the last 16 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • 13 of the last 16 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect Keith Donoghue, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell have 2 wins each
  • 13 or the last 16 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 11 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 8 of the last 16 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 3 of the last 6 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 98, but last year’s winner was 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 15
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

 

 4.15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

 

2020 Winner: CHOSEN MATE 7/2fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell  

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 17 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 8 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 12 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 11 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 17
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 10 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 12 runnings
  • 5 of the last 6 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 140-147
  • The last 10 winners rated between 138-150
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 wins from the last 25 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 15
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 30 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Only 2 of the last 16 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

 4.50 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2020 Winner: FERNY HOLLOW
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 28 had won last time out (all of last 17)
  • 21 of the last 28 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (21 from 37)
  • 19 of the last 28 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 28 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 20 winners were second season horses
  • 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 18 of the last 28 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 18 of the last 20 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 18 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (10 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020
  • The Irish lead the British 22-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
  • 9 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-17 in the last 18 runnings
  • The last 5 winners had run in February
  • Last 2 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 11 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • 4 of the last 11 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 64 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race