Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know, all of the last 20 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger?

Friday 17th March 2023 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: VAUBAN (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses…..

• 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 7 of the last 10 runnings
• French-breds have filled 13 of the last 22 places (last 8 runnings)
• 13 of the last 18 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (Last year’s winner Vauban won that race too)
• 9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (7 of the last 11) last time
• 9 of the last 11 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 6 of the last 8 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 9 years

Negatives….

• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 2 of the last 18 winner returned bigger than 12/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 14
• Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 and 2022 races – currently 2-from-34
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost (all unplaced too)

 

---

2.10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: STATE MAN (11/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
• 7 of the last 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (3)
• Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 13 runnings
• 18 of the last 22 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 13 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 8 of the last 15 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 7 of the last 14 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 13 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 24 winners aged 5
• 6 of the last 9 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 11 of the last 16 winners Irish-trained
• 9 of the last 15 winners started their careers in France
• 13 of the last 17 winners were priced in double-figures
• 13 of the last 19 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 12 of the last 22 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 7 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 48 (+40.25pts)
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 7 winners

Negatives….

• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-19) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 35 in last 15 runnings
• Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
• Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 21
• Just 3 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price

 

---

    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: THE NICE GUY (18/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 9 of the last 18 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 15 of the last 18 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 7 of the last 18 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
• 15 of the last 18 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 11 winners had won a Point
• 7 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 9 of the last 18 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 18 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 14 of the last 18 had run in a race over 3m
• 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 14 of the last 18 winners were 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 12 of the last 18 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 17 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 6 runnings

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Willie Mullins is 3 from 44 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
• Gordon Elliott is 0-from-9
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 18)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 10 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 17)
• Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

---

    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2022 Winner: A PLUS TARD (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 19 of the last 23 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 19 of the last 22 finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 18 of the last 23 winners were 2^nd or 3^rd season chasers
• 11 of the last 17 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 22 of the last 23 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 18 of the last 22 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 18 of the last 22 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 20 of the last 23 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 13 of the last 15 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 17 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
• 16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 20 winners were favourites (50%)
• 13 of the last 18 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 22 of the last 23 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
• 20 of the last 23 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season

Negatives….

• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 41
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 36 (had 4 of the last 10 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 15 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

 

---

   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2022 Winner: BILLAWAY (13/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained  

Pluses…..

• 28 of the last 32 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 26 of the last 37 won last time out
• The last 8 winners aged 10 or 11
• 19 of the last 20 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 16 winners were yet to win over this trip
• 7 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 9 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 30 of the last 34 started out in point-to-point races
• 13 of the last 17 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 8 of last 12)
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
• 12 of the last 17 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
• 13 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 13 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 10, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winner in the last 11
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 46 years aged 12 or older
• 27 of the last 34 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 35 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 0-86 (last 20 runnings)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 256 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

 

---

    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2022 Winner: ELIMAY (1^st 9/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

• Only 2 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained both winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• Both winners returned 9/4 2^nd favourite
• Both winners won last time out
• Both winners rated 150+
• Both winners aged 8
• Both winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before

 

---

5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

2022 Winner: BANDBRIDGE (12/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Mark McDonagh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 14 winners were 2^nd season-hurdlers
• 10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 14 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 5 winners had top-weight
• All 14 winners aged 7 or younger
• 8 or the last 11 winners rated 139+
• 12 of the last 14 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 6 of the last 9 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 8 of the last 12 (6 making handicap debuts)
• 36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1^st or 2^nd season hurdlers
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 11 of the 14 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 7 of the 14 winners won last time out
• 6 of the last 9 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 8 of the 14 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 14 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 14 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-old have won 12 of last 14 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 22 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 12 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 10 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 4
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 10 between them

Negatives….

• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 59
• Just 1 winning fav in the 14-year history (9-12 returned in double-figures)
• Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 75
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-96

 

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================