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Punchestown Festival – Big Race Trends

A huge week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (27th April-1st May). Like all big race meetings, we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these to help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

 

DAY ONE – Tuesday 27th April 2021

 4.15 – EcOMM merchant solutions Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m 1/2f

8 of the last 15 runnings went to the favourite
8 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 15 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
8 of the last 15 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 21 years (18 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 4 times
14 of the last 15 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Edward O’Grady has won the race in 2003, 2007 & 2011
16 of the last 20 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out

 

5.25 – william hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) Winner €86,800 2m

6 of the last 17 runnings went to the favourite
16 of the last 21 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
14 of the last 18 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 18 had previous won at the track
All of the last 18 winners had won before over 2m
14 of the last 18 came 1st or 2nd last time out
12 of the last 18 were Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 18 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 15 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
12 of the last 17 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
7 of the last 17 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015, 2018 & 2019

 

DAY TWO – Wednesday 28th April 2021

 

5.55 – LADBROKES Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Irish-trained winners
12/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/17 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
4/17 - Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/2
8 of the last 15 favourites have won
Nine of the last 12 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 21 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase


6.30 – ITM – Supporting Irish store sales Champion I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 1) (4-7yo) 2m

3 winning favourites in the last 15 years (1 joint)
14 of the last 16 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 14 winners since 1992
14 of the last 28 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
27 of the last 28 winners had raced 2 or more times before
Not many mares have run in the race, but 5 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 & 2019
The Irish have won 14 of the last 16 runnings

 

DAY THREE – Thursday 29th April 2021

 

4.50 – Mongey communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 14 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 21 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 14 carried 12-2 or more
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or older
6 of the last 14 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
20 of the last 25 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
10 of the last 14 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race
Ballyboker Bridge won this race in 2019

 

5.25 - Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 3m


Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (16/1)
2018 – FAUGHEEN (11/2)
2017 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (4/1)
2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)


Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

14/17 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
13/17 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Irish trained winners
9/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
7/17 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/17 – Ran in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle last time out
Only one Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 20 runnings
14 of the last 17 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The market leader has won 9 of the last 19 runnings
11 of the last 18 winners won their previous race
11 of the 23 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
8 of the last 16 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
11 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before

 

6.35 - Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

6 winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
13 of the last 14 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or older (only 5 of the last 23 aged 6 or younger)
9 of the last 14 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
22 of the last 24 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
8 of the last 14 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 11 times they have had runners
14 of the last 16 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019

 

 

DAY FOUR – Friday 30th April 2021

5.25 – PADDY POWER CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

8 of the last 15 favourites (2 joint) have won
7 of the last 13 winners won last time out
12 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
13 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or older
12 of the last 21 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two when running
12 of the last 15 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2017
6 of the last 9 winners returned odds-on in the betting
13 of the last 15 winners were Irish-trained

6.00 – ALANNA CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

9 of the last 15 favourites have won
9 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 years-old
13 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 9 of the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 19 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old

 

DAY FIVE – Saturday 1st May 2021


4.25 – AES CHAMPION FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

6 winning favourites in the last 15 runnings
14 of the last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018
12 of the last 14 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
6 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
10 of the last 22 runnings went to a British-trained horse
Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 3 runnings