Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 14 of the last 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before. While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw the Irish-trained Flooring Porter land in 2021 and 2022.

Thursday 16th March (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2022 Winner: BOB OLINGER 6/5
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachel Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
• 11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
• 3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
• 5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
• 7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
• 3 of the last 12 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
• Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 12 runnings (1 co)
• 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
• Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

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    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: THIRD WIND (25/1)
Trainer – Hughie Morison
Jockey – Tom O’Brien
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 runnings
• Last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
• Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
• 9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
• 5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
• Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
• Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
• 6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
• 5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown  Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 48

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    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2022 Winner: ALLAHO (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 7 of the last 10 winners were 2^nd season chasers
• All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
• 4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
• 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
• 9 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 9 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 14 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
• No winner was having their Festival debut

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    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2022 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (4/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained   

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 18 won last time out
• 7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
• 20 of the last 23 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
• 8 of the last 21 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
• 19 of the last 23 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 runnings)
• 17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 runningss
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)

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4.10 - Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2022 Winner: COOLE CODY (22/1)
Trainer – Evan Williams
Jockey – Adam Wedge
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• 28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25^th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 runnings
• 17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
• 22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• 6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
• 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
• The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
• Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• 4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
• Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
• Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
• Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

    4.50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2022 Winner: LOVE ENVOI
Trainer – Harry Fry
Jockey – Jonathan Burke
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• A new race (Just 7 renewals)
• All 7 winners aged 5 or 6
• 6 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
• Favourites have won 3 of the 7 runnings
• 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 7 winners were French-bred
• 4 of the last 7 winners were top or 2^nd top rated
• 5 of the last 7 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 7 past winners started their careers in France
• 5 of the last 7 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 4 of the 7 winners were unbeaten that season
• Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 7 runnings (just 4 runners)
• 4 of the 7 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

• British trained runners are 1-from-49
• British bred mares are 0-from-23
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-10
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-8
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-20

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    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2022 Winner: CHAMBARD
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Lucy Turner
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
• 11 of the last 15 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 10 of the last 11 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 137-143
• 9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 9 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
• 8 of the last 12 winners hadn’t win that season
  10 of the last 14 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 19 of the last 23 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
• 11 of the last 14 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 14 winners
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2^nd 3 times and 1^st in 2019
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 11)
• 18 of the last 20 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

• Just 5 Irish winners in last 39 years (but have won 5 of the last 9)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 1 from 74 since 2005
• Jus 2 of the last 18 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 102 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 20 winners won last time out

 

 

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