2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 16th March 2022)
Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win!
Cheltenham Festival Trends
Wednesday 16th March (Old Course & Cross Country)
1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV
2021 Winner: BOB OLINGER (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 5 of the last 8 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
- 17 of the last 21 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
- 21 of the last 27 winners won last time out
- 26 of the last 27 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- The Irish have won 12 of the last 19 (7 of last 8)
- Horses rated 150+ do well
- 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 22 of the last 27 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
- All of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6
- In the last 10 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 18 of the 30 top 3 places
- 21 of the last 23 were NH bred
- 15 of the last 23 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
- Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 9 placed in last 16 years
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 4
Negatives….
- Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 56 (since 1988)
- Only two of the last 35 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 18 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 16 years)
2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV
2021 Winner: MONKFISH (1/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
Pluses….
- 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 6th Feb) that season
- The last 20 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
- 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
- 24 of the last 27 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 12 of the last 15 (17 of last 22)
- 10 of the last 16 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 12 winners were beaten on their chase debut
- 8 of the last 14 winners had won a bumper before
- 7 of the last 15 favourites won
- The last 7 winners were rated 150+
- 9 of the last 10 winners returned single-figures in the betting
- 19 of the last 21 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
- Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
- Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 25
- 10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 7 of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 18 between them)
- 24 of the last 29 were novice hurdling last season
- 6 of the last 12 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (53 of the last 55 winners had)
- 12 of the last 15 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
- The last 7 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
- Just 2 of the last 22 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
- French bred horses are 0-from-36 (last 15 years)
- Colin Tizzard is 0-from-10 over the last 10 years
- Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 22 winners)
- Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
- Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 30
2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
2021 Winner: HEAVEN HELP US (33/1)
Trainer – Paul Hennessy
Jockey – Richard Condon
Pluses….
- 12 of the last 17 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 18 of the last 21 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
- 10 of the last 12 winners had run at the Festival before
- 9 of the last 13 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 9 of the last 13 winners were rated in the 140’s
- 14 of the last 22 winners aged 6 or 7
- 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- 12 of the last 16 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 20 of the last 27 winners won earlier that season
- Respect JP McManus-owned runners
- Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (6 wins in last 12 years)
- 10 of the last 20 winners were FRENCH-BRED
- 15 of the last 28 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (6 of the last 13)
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 13 winners)
- 15 of the last 17 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 11
- 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
- The last 3 winners wore headgear
Negatives….
- Just one winning favourite in the last 18 years (2020)
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
- Just 4 winners since 2000 aged 8+
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 45 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 42 since 2010
3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV
2021 Winner: PUT THE KETTLE ON (17/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- 13 of the last 21 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 9 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 24 of the last 37 had won at the Festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 9 of the last 14 between them
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 10
- 27 of the last 35 winners aged between 7-9
- 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
- 16 of the last 19 winners had run that calendar year
- 38 of the last 40 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- 15 of the last 22 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 7 of the last 15 winners were French-bred
- 11 of the last 19 winners were second season chasers
- 15 of the last 17 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 19 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 16 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 7 of the last 11 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
- Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 38 years
- Just 1 winner in last 17 had run 4+ times that season
- Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 3-from-31
- Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race (0-from-12)
- Just 1 of the last 20 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 12 of the last 16 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
- Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 47 years
- Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 43 years
- Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
2021 Winner: TIGER ROLL (9/2)
Trainer – Denise Foster
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
Pluses….
- The Irish have won 14 of the last 17 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
- 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 9 of the last 17 ran in the December Cross Country race here
- 14 of the last 17 winners had run on the course before
- Respect Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
- 13 or the last 17 winners were aged 10 or younger
- 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or 9
- Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 11 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
- 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
- 9 of the last 17 winners had run in the NH Chase before
- 4 of the last 7 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
- The last 6 winners all wore headgear
Negatives….
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
- Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 99, but the 2020 winner was 6
- Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 15
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2021 Winner: SKY PIRATE (14/1)
Trainer – Jonjo O’Neill
Jockey – Nick Schofield
Pluses….
- 7 of the last 8 winners carried 11st or more
- 15 of the last 18 winners had run at the Festival before
- 8 of the last 18 winners ran in the previous renewal
- Irish have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
- 8 of the last 12 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 9 of the last 13 winners novices or second season chasers
- 11 of the last 16 winners aged between 6-8
- 12 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or older
- Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
- Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 18
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 10 placed)
- The last 11 winners were rated at least 138
- 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
- Novices have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
- 5 of the last 7 winners won after a 91+ day break
- 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 138-147
- 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 138-150
- 8 of the last 11 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
- 19 of the last 22 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
Negatives….
- Horses aged 10+ are just 2 wins from the last 26 runnings
- Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
- Last time out winners are just 1 from last 15
- Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 30 since 2005
- Only 2 of the last 16 winners were favourites
- Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
- Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2021 Winner: SIR GERHARD
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- 27 of the last 29 had won last time out (all of last 18)
- 22 of the last 29 winners trained in Ireland
- Respect Irish-trained runners (22 from 38)
- 20 of the last 29 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 22 of the last 29 were Irish-bred
- 11 of the last 21 winners were second season horses
- 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 18 of the last 29 winners aged 5 years-old
- 18 of the last 20 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 12 of the last 19 had been beaten in a race before
- 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- Respect Willie Mullins (11 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
- The Irish lead the British 23-7 in the race history
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
- 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- Mares are 3-18 in the last 18 runnings
- 5 of the last 6 winners had run in February
- Last 3 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
- Just 2 of the last 11 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- 4 of the last 11 winners were won by UK-based trainers
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 64 since 2000 (Cue Card)
- Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
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