Tag Archive for: 2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 18th March 2022)

2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 18th March 2022)

Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know, all of the last 19 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger?

 


Friday 19th March 2022 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

 

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2021 Winner: QUILIXIOS (2/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses…..

  • 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 11 of the last 19 places (last 7 runnings)
  • 12 of the last 17 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (6 of the last 10) last time
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had raced by Christmas time
  • 5 of the last 7 winners began their careers in France
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 8 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 17 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 13
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 race – currently 1-from-31
  • Last 7 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost  (all unplaced)

 

2.10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

 

2021 Winner: BELFAST BANTER (33/1)
Trainer – Peter Fahey
Jockey – Kevin Sexton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (3) or Dan Skelton (3)
  • Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 12 runnings
  • 17 of the last 21 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 14 of the last 16 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 8 of the last 14 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 6 of the last 13 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 11 of the last 23 winners aged 5
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 10 of the last 15 winners Irish-trained
  • 8 of the last 14 winners started their careers in France
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 18 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 11 of the last 21 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 43 (+42.5pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 6 renewals

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (158 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last year’s winner defied this trend
  • Horses aged 9+ are 0-from23 in the last 10 years
  • 1 of the last 8 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
  • Just 2 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-from-33) since 2000
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-17) last 11 years

 

    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2021 Winner: VANILLIER (14/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 17 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 15 of the last 17 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won a Point
  • 6 of the last 8 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 17 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 17 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 14 of the last 17 had run in a race over 3m
  • 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 16 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 2 from 40 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-7
  • Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 10 years
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2021 Winner: MINELLA INDO (9/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • 18 of the last 22 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 18 of the last 21 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • 21 of the last 22 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 17 of the last 21 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 17 of the last 21 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 12 of the last 14 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 17 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 16 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 19 winners were favourites
  • 13 of the last 17 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 22 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 21 of the last 22 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 20 of the last 22 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 35
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 33 (had 4 of the last 9 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 2 of the last 14 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

 

 

   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2021 Winner: PORLOCK BAY (16/1)
Trainer – Will Biddick
Jockey – Lorcan Williams  

Pluses…..

  • 27 of the last 31 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 36 won last time out
  • 18 of the last 19 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 15 winners were yet to win over this trip
  • 6 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 29 of the last 33 started out in point-to-point races
  • 12 of the last 16 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 7 of last 11)
  • 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 9, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 45 years aged 12 or older
  • 27 of the last 29 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 34 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-84 (last 19 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 251 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

 

    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2021 Winner: COLREEVY (1st 9/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

  • Willie Mullins trained the 1-2 last season
  • Willie Mullins has won 15 of the 21 mares’ only races at the Festival

 

    5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

 

2021 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (8/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keeffe  

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 9 of the last 11 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 13 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 3 of the last 4 winners had top-weight
  • All 13 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 8 or the last 10 winners rated 139+
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 7 of the last 11 (6 making handicap debuts)
  • 36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 10 of the 13 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 6 of the 13 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 13 winners were rated 133-139
  • 8 of the 13 winners returned at a double-figure price (10 of the last 13 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 11 of last 13 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 20 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 11 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 9 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 56
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 13-year history (8-11 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 71
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-91