Tag Archive for: 2022 stayers hurdle trends

2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 17th March 2022)

Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 13 of the last 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before. While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw the Irish-trained Flooring Porter land in 2021.

 

Thursday 17th March (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

 

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (9/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 9 of the 11 winners were Irish-trained
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 11 winners
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 10 of the last 11 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 8 of the last 11 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 11 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 10 of the 11 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 9 of the last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
  • 3 outright winning favourites in the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 winners won last time out
  • 10 of the last 11 winners French (4) or Irish (6) bred
  • 5 of the last 11 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 11 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 7 of last 11 renewals
  • 6 of the last 7 winners rated 151+
  • 3 of the last 11 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
  • Gordon Elliott is 2 from 4
  • McManus has owned 2 of the last 3 winners

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 11
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 11 runnings (1 co)
  • 5 year-olds are 0-from-6
  • Just 1 of the last 11 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 2 winners had been off for more than 54 days

 

    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

 

2021 Winner: MRS MILNER (12/1)
Trainer – Paul Nolan
Jockey – BJ Cooper

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 12 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • Irish have won the last 6 runnings
  • Last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
  • Last 6 winners trained in Ireland
  • Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
  • 9 of the last 14 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 10 of the last 21 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 10 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 7 of the last 8 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 21 winners won their last race
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 3 of the last 13 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
  • Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 6 winners
  • Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • Only 2 winning favourites in last 16 years
  • Just 1 winner in the last 39 aged 10+
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 8 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 47

 

    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

 

2021 Winner: ALLAHO (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore  

Pluses….

  • 13 of the 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • All 14 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 11 of the last 14 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 28)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 14 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 17 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 13 of last 17 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (3 from 10)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 8 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season
  • 4 of the last 6 winners trained by Willie Mullins

 

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 5 from 62 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 5 of the last 14 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2021 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (12/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins   

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 17 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 29 of the last 32 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 20 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 8 of the last 15 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
  • 19 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 13 of the last 17 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 16 of the last 25 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 3 of the last 4 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just 4 times since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16), but horses that ran in the race have won the last 3
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 71
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 59)

 

4.10 - Paddy Power Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2021 Winner: THE SHUNTER (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Emmet Mullins
Jockey – Jordan Gainford

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 34 winners were officially rated 140 or less
  • 11 of the last 13 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 13 of the last 17 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
  • 11 of the last 18 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 24 runnings
  • 16 of the last 21 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 21 of the last 30 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
  • 21 of the last 22 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 17 of the last 22 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
  • The last 6 winners were novices or second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had raced that calendar year

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1951
  • Only 2 of the last 18 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 16 years
  • Only 4 of last 27 won with 11st+
  • Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 and 2020 winners did defy this trend.
  • Only 2 of the last 18 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

    4.50 – Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2021 Winner: TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 6 renewals)
  • All 6 winners trained in Ireland
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 6 runnings
  • 3 of the last 6 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 6 winners were French-bred
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were top or 2nd top rated
  • 5 of the last 6 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 6 past winners started their careers in France
  • 3 of the 6 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 6 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 6 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 6 runnings


Negatives….

  • Irish bred mares are just 2-from-45
  • British trained runners are 0-from-43
  • British bred mares are 0-from-17
  • Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-8
  • JP McManus owned are 0-from-7
  • 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-16

    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2021 Winner: MOUNT IDA (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Denise Foster
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 11 of the last 14 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • The last 10 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 9 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
    9 of the last 13 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 18 of the last 22 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 10 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
  • 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 13 winners
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 10)
  • 18 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Just 5 Irish winners in last 38 years (but have won 5 of the last 8)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 23
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 68 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 2 from 96 since 2009
  • Just 1 of the last 19 winners won last time out

 

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