Tag Archive for: 2024 cheltenham festival trends

2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 15th March 2024)

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Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know? All of the last 21 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Friday 15th March 2024 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

   

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 23 of the last 30 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 14 of the last 23 places (last 9 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 12) last time
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had raced by Christmas time
  • 7 of the last 9 winners began their careers in France
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 10 years
  • Mullins and Rich Ricci has won the last 2 runnings
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 19 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 15
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020, 2022, 2023 races – currently 3-from-41 runners
  • Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)

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2.10 – BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: FAIVOIR (33/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Bridget Andrews
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
  • 8 of the last 9 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (4)
  • Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 14 runnings
  • 18 of the last 23 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 9 of the last 16 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 7 of the last 15 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 25 winners aged 5
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 11 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
  • 9 of the last 16 winners started their careers in France
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 20 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 12 of the last 23 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 5 of the last 8 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 32 (+15pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 52 (+36.25pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-20) since 2011
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-36) this century
  • Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 38 in last 16 runnings
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
  • Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 22
  • Just 3 of the last 16 winners returned a single-figure price

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    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2023 Winner: STAY AWAY FAY (18/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 19 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 7 of the last 19 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
  • 16 of the last 19 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Point
  • 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 19 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 19 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 15 of the last 19 had run in a race over 3m
  • 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 18 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 47 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 6
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-12
  • Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 19)
  • Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 11 years
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 120)
  • Only 4 of the last 18 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (0%)

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    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2023 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (7/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 19 of the last 24 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 20 of the last 23 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 12 of the last 18 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • 23 of the last 24 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
  • 19 of the last 23 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 19 of the last 23 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 24 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 16 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 17 of the last 27 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 17 of the last 23 winners won last time out
  • 11 of the last 21 winners were favourites (52%)
  • 14 of the last 19 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 24 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 23 of the last 24 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 21 of the last 24 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
  • Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 5
  • Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 74)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 46
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 2 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats: The Last 20 Years

  • 20/20 – Aged 9 or younger
  • 19/20 – Had raced within the last 3 months
  • 18/20 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
  • 17/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17/20 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 15/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
  • 15/20 – Won last time out
  • 14/20 – Placed favourites
  • 13/20 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
  • 12/20 – Rated 170 or higher
  • 11/20 – Irish bred
  • 10/20 – Winning favourites
  • 9/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 7)
  • 8/20 – Had last raced in the previous calendar year
  • 8/20 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
  • 5/20 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
  • 4/20 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
  • 3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
  • 3/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of the last 5)
  • 2/20 – Ran in the Savills Chase last time out
  • 2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
  • 2/20 – Trained by Henry De Bromhead (2 of the last 3)
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 renewals is 11/2

Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

  • Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
  • 28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 9 or younger
  • 9 of the last 21 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were rated 166 or higher
  • 22 of the last 24 winners had won a race already that current season
  • 16 of the last 22 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 11 of the last 23 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
  • 22 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest before
  • The last winner aged older than 11+ was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)
  • Just one 10 year-old winner since 1993 (Cool Dawn, 1998)

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   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2023 Winner: Premier Magic
Trainer – Bradley Gibbs
Jockey – Mr Bradley Gibbs
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 29 of the last 33 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 27 of the last 38 won last time out
  • The last 9 winners aged 10 or 11
  • 20 of the last 21 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 17 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
  • 8 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 9 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 31 of the last 35 started out in point-to-point races
  • 14 of the last 18 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 13)
  • 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 9 of the last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 11 of the last 14 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 11, rated 138+)
  • 3 back-to-back winners in the last 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 47 years aged 12 or older
  • 30 of the last 37 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 36 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-89 (last 21 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 266 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

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    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2023 Winner: IMPERVIOUS (1st 15/8)
Trainer – Colm Murphy
Jockey – Brian Hayes
UK/Irish: Irish

  • Only 3 previous runnings
  • Willie Mullins trained 2 winners
  • Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
  • All 3 winners have been 2nd favourite
  • All 3 winners won last time out
  • All 3 winners rated 150+
  • All 3 winners aged 7-8
  • All 3 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 3 runnings (0%)

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    5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

 

2023 Winner: IROKO
Trainer – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Jockey – Aidan Kelly
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 15 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 15 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 3 of the last 6 winners had top-weight
  • All 15 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 9 or the last 12 winners rated 138+
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 8 of the last 13 (6 making handicap debuts)
  • 37 of the 39 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 12 of the 15 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 8 of the 15 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 9 of the 15 winners were rated 133-139
  • 9 of the 15 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 15 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 13 of last 15 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 25 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 13 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 11 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
  • Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5
  • Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 11 between them

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 63
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 15-year history (9-13 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 78
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-100
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (0%)
  • 1 Winning fav since the race started in 2009

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2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 14th March 2024)

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Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 15 of the last 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw Sire Du Berlais grabbing a shock win in 2023 and is back for more at the age of 12.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Thursday 14th March 2024 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

  

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR 15/2
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 9 of the 13 winners were Irish-trained
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 13 winners
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 12 of the last 13 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 9 of the last 13 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 13 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 12 of the 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 13 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
  • 3 outright winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
  • 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 winners French (4) or Irish (8) bred (7 of last 8 Irish bred)
  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 7 of the last 13 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 9 of last 13 renewals
  • 8 of the last 9 winners rated 151+
  • 3 of the last 13 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
  • Gordon Elliott is 2 from 6
  • JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 5 winners
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just 4 British-trained winners so far, but one was last year (Stage Star)
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 13
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 13 runnings (1 co)
  • 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

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    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

 

2023 Winner: GOOD TIME JONNY (9/1)
Trainer – AJ Martin
Jockey – Liam McKenna (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Irish have won the last 7 of last 8 runnings
  • Last 12 winners aged 8 or younger
  • Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
  • 9 of the last 16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 11 of the last 23 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 12 of the last 17 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 23 winners won their last race
  • 6 of the last 8 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 3 of the last 15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)
  • 7 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
  • 7 of the last 8 winners Irish-trained
  • 6 of the last 8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
  • Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 50
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

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    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2023 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN (13/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 15 of the 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • All 16 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 13 of the last 16 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 30) (Envoi Allen 2023 ran in that season’s KG 7th)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 15 of the last 16 winners were rated 161+
  • Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 6
  • 4 of the last 19 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 14 of last 19 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 11 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (3 from 12)
  • 10 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 10 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 5 or less times that season
  • 5 of the last 8 winners trained by Willie Mullins
  • Last 12 winners aged 9 or younger
  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 runnings
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Only 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 6 of the last 16 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

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    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2023 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS (33/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish   

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 19 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 20 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 30 of the last 34 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 18 of the last 23 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 18 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
  • 9 of the last 22 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 8 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
  • 19 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 14 of the last 19 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 18 of the last 27 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • The Irish are have won the race just 6 times since 1995 (but have won the last 3)
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 79
  • Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 34 runnings
  • Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 65), last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

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4.10 - TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: SEDDON (20/1)
Trainer – John C McConnell
Jockey – Ben Harvey (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 36 winners were officially rated 140 or less
  • 12 of the last 15 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
  • 11 of the last 20 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 26 runnings
  • 18 of the last 23 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 23 of the last 32 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 12 were having Festival debut)
  • 23 of the last 24 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 19 of the last 24 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were novices or second season chasers
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had raced that calendar year
  • Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • The last 5 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but could be turning with these all coming since 2016
  • Only 3 of the last 20 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
  • Just 4 winning favourites in the last 18 years
  • Only 5 of last 29 winners won with 11st+
  • Just 2 winners older than 9 in the last 11 years
  • Only 2 of the last 20 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

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    4.50 – Ryanair Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: YOU WEAR IT WELL
Trainer – Jamie Snowden
Jockey – Gavin Sheehan
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 8 renewals)
  • All 8 winners aged 5 or 6
  • 6 of the last 8 winners trained in Ireland, but last 2 UK trained
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 8 runnings
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 8 winners were French-bred
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were top or 2nd top rated
  • 5 of the last 8 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 8 past winners started their careers in France
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
  • 4 of the 8 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 8 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 8 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (38%)

Negatives….

  • British trained runners are 2-from-57
  • British bred mares are 1-from-28
  • Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
  • JP McManus owned are 0-from-9
  • 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24

================================================

    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2023 Winner: ANGELS DAWN
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr PA King
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
  • 11 of the last 16 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 10 of the last 12 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 137-143
  • 9 of the last 14 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  • 8 of the last 13 winners hadn’t won that season
    11 of the last 15 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 20 of the last 24 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
  • 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 12)
  • 19 of the last 21 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Just 6 Irish winners in last 40 years (but have won 6 of the last 10)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 1 from 80 since 2005
  • Jus 2 of the last 19 winners aged 10+
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 108 since 2009
  • Just 2 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

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2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 13th March 2024)

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Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two seasons and has a strong hand again in 2024 with El Fabiolo, who is unbeaten over fences.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

Wednesday 13th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

1.30 – Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Reg as the Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2023 Winner: IMPAIRE ET PASSE (5/2)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 19 of the last 23 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
  • 28 of the last 29 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 14 of the last 21 (9 of last 10)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 24 of the last 29 winners (including last 12) had won at least one bumper race
  • 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 12 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 24 of the 36 top 3 places
  • 23 of the last 25 were NH bred
  • 17 of the last 25 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 13 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 6 winners in last 16 years (4 of the last 10)
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 winners
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 37 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 20 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)

=================================================

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2023 Winner: THE REAL WHACKER (8/1)
Trainer – Patrick Neville
Jockey – Sam Twiston-Davies
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
  • The last 22 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 16 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 26 of the last 29 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 14 of the last 17 (19 of last 24)
  • 12 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper before
  • 8 of the last 17 favourites won
  • The last 9 winners were rated 150+
  • 11 of the last 12 winners returned single-figures in the betting
  • 21 of the last 23 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 27
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 7 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (5 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 20 between them)
  • 26 of the last 31 were novice hurdling last season
  • 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (55 of the last 57 winners had)
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • 8 of the last 9 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 3 of the last 24 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
  • French bred horses are 1-from-43 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
  • The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 12 years
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 24 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race
  • Horses in headgear have a poor record

=================================================

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2023 Winner: LANGER DAN (9/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 19 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 18 of the last 23 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before (9 had top 4 finish)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 15 of the last 24 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 10 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 29 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 14 years)
  • 10 of the last 22 winners were French-Bred
  • 15 of the last 30 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 15)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (13 of last 15 winners)
  • 16 of the last 19 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 13 runnings
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 10 (4 in total)
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
  • 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 20 years (2020)
  • Only 5 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
  • Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 50 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 47 since 2010
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2023 Winner: ENERGUMENE (6/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 23 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 11 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 25 of the last 39 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 24 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 12
  • 29 of the last 37 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 22 winners won last time out
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 18 of the last 21 winners had run that calendar year
  • 40 of the last 42 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 17 of the last 24 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 17 winners were French-bred
  • 12 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 24 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 7 of the last 13 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 19 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
  • Just 1 of the last 22 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 49 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 45 years
  • 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
  • Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

=================================================

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
  • 15 of the last 19 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
  • 15 or the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 10 of the last 19 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
  • The last 8 winners wore headgear
  • 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
  • Just 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

=================================================

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2023 Winner: MASKADA (22/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Darragh O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
  • 16 of the last 20 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 10 of the last 14 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 15 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 12 of the last 18 winners aged between 6-8
  • 13 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 20
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 15 runnings
  • 5 of the last 9 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-147
  • 11 of the last 13 winners rated between 138-150
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more in weight
  • 21 of the last 24 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 28 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 17
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 35 since 2005
  • Only 2 of the last 19 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2023 Winner: A DREAM TO SHARE (7/2)
Trainer – John E Kiely
Jockey – Mr JL Gleeson
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 29 of the last 31 had won last time out (all of last 19)
  • 24 of the last 31 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (24 from 40)
  • 22 of the last 31 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 24 of the last 31 were Irish-bred
  • 12 of the last 23 winners were second season horses
  • 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 20 of the last 31 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 20 of the last 22 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 21 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
  • The Irish lead the British 25-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
  • 12 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-21 in the last 19 runnings
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had run in February
  • 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • Only 4 of the last 13 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 67 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

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2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 12th March 2024)

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Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 34 of the last 40 winners won last time out. While the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 renewals between them.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

Tuesday 12th March 2024 (Old Course)   

1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

 

2023 Winner: Marine Nationale
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 24 of the last 27 winners won their last race
  • 14 of the last 20 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
  • 21 of the last 29 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 18 of the last 32 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 17 of the last 19 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 11 years
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
  • 26 of the last 29 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had been rated 153 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners returned a single-figure price
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper winners
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 27. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
  • Just 4 of the last 21 winners came here unbeaten
  • Just 1 of the last 21 winners aged 7 or older
  • Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
  • 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
  • Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

====================================================

2.10 – My Pension Expert Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2023 Winner: EL FABIOLO (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 19 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 18 of the last 24 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 14 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
  • 22 of the last 24 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had won at least twice over fences before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 21 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 20 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over fences
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
  • Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 runnings (all French-bred)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Nicky Henderson (4)
  • 9 of the last 12 favourites have won
  • 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 37 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
  • Just 3 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 4 of the last 32 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • Ex-flat horses have a poor record
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
  • Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

====================================================

    2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2023 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 18 of the last 24 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 16 of the last 23 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 23 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 17 of the last 23 were novices or second season chasers
  • 9 of the last 16 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 15 of the last 23 runnings
  • 9 of the last 21 won last time out
  • Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
  • 10 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
  • 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Northern-based runners have a good record

Negatives….

  • Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 19 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Corach Rambler in 2023 carried 10st 5bs)
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 55 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
  • Only 3 winners in the last 15 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
  • The Irish have won just 2 of the last 55 runnings (since 1967)
  • Irish-trained runners are 0-38 in the last 17 runnings
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

====================================================

    3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2023 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL (1st 4/11 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 34 of the last 40 won last time out
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
  • Horses unbeaten that season often do well (11 of last 13)
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 runnings between them
  • 10 of the last 15 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
  • The Irish have won 15 of the last 25 runnings
  • Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 14 (9 in total)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
  • 28 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
  • 15 of the last 25 winners had won at the Festival before
  • 26 of the last 39 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 16 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 28 winners started as flat horses
  • The last 9 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 7 years
  • 7 of the last 15 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
  • Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 8 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 favourites won
  • 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 2 from 112 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 41 runnings)
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
  • Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
  • International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 20 years)
  • Only 2 of the last 25 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
  • The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 52 years ago (Bula)

====================================================

    4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2023 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares (13 of last 16)
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 12 of the last 16 runnings
  • 9 of the last 16 favourites have won
  • 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m4f
  • Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 16 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
  • 6 of the last 12 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
  • Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
  • 12 of the last 16 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • British-bred mares are currently 3-90
  • Just 1 outright favourite in the last 9 runnings
  • Just one winner from last 32 runners to wear headgear have won
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
  • Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

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    4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2023 Winner: JAZZY MATTY (18/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 19 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • 10 of the last 19 winners started their careers in France
  • Respect Fillies
  • 12 of the last 19 winners carried 11st+
  • 9 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 13 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 11 of the last 19 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 12 priced 25/1+)
  • 13 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 16 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 14 runnings
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 40 between them
  • Just 3 of the last 19 winners rated 135+
  • Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 14 years)
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 20 (just 3 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 19
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

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    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

 

2023 Winner: GAILLARD DU MESNIL 10/11 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 13 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (24 of the last 33)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 5+ times over fences
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
  • 7 of the last 13 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 8 of the last 17 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 9 of the last 13 winners Irish-trained
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were rated 145 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 5 places (from 17 rides)
  • Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 9 of the last 13 (4 Mullins, 3 Codd, 2 O’Connor)
  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 9
  • Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 13 runners
  • 3 of the last 6 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
  • Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
  • Favourites have won just 4 of the last 14 runnings
  • Just 2 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 years-old
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
  • Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
  • Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 15)
  • Just 2 winners in the last 15 returned bigger than 12/1
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

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