Tag Archive for: 2024 kim muir chase trends

2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 14th March 2024)

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 15 of the last 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw Sire Du Berlais grabbing a shock win in 2023 and is back for more at the age of 12.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Thursday 14th March 2024 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

  

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR 15/2
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 9 of the 13 winners were Irish-trained
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 13 winners
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 12 of the last 13 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 9 of the last 13 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 13 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 12 of the 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 13 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
  • 3 outright winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
  • 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 winners French (4) or Irish (8) bred (7 of last 8 Irish bred)
  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 7 of the last 13 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 9 of last 13 renewals
  • 8 of the last 9 winners rated 151+
  • 3 of the last 13 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
  • Gordon Elliott is 2 from 6
  • JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 5 winners
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just 4 British-trained winners so far, but one was last year (Stage Star)
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 13
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 13 runnings (1 co)
  • 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

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    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

 

2023 Winner: GOOD TIME JONNY (9/1)
Trainer – AJ Martin
Jockey – Liam McKenna (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Irish have won the last 7 of last 8 runnings
  • Last 12 winners aged 8 or younger
  • Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
  • 9 of the last 16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 11 of the last 23 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 12 of the last 17 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 23 winners won their last race
  • 6 of the last 8 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 3 of the last 15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)
  • 7 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
  • 7 of the last 8 winners Irish-trained
  • 6 of the last 8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
  • Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 50
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

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    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2023 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN (13/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 15 of the 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • All 16 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 13 of the last 16 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 30) (Envoi Allen 2023 ran in that season’s KG 7th)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 15 of the last 16 winners were rated 161+
  • Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 6
  • 4 of the last 19 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 14 of last 19 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 11 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (3 from 12)
  • 10 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 10 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 5 or less times that season
  • 5 of the last 8 winners trained by Willie Mullins
  • Last 12 winners aged 9 or younger
  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 runnings
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Only 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 6 of the last 16 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

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    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2023 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS (33/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish   

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 19 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 20 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 30 of the last 34 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 18 of the last 23 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 18 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
  • 9 of the last 22 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 8 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
  • 19 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 14 of the last 19 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 18 of the last 27 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • The Irish are have won the race just 6 times since 1995 (but have won the last 3)
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 79
  • Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 34 runnings
  • Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 65), last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

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4.10 - TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: SEDDON (20/1)
Trainer – John C McConnell
Jockey – Ben Harvey (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 36 winners were officially rated 140 or less
  • 12 of the last 15 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
  • 11 of the last 20 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 26 runnings
  • 18 of the last 23 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 23 of the last 32 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 12 were having Festival debut)
  • 23 of the last 24 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 19 of the last 24 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were novices or second season chasers
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had raced that calendar year
  • Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • The last 5 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but could be turning with these all coming since 2016
  • Only 3 of the last 20 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
  • Just 4 winning favourites in the last 18 years
  • Only 5 of last 29 winners won with 11st+
  • Just 2 winners older than 9 in the last 11 years
  • Only 2 of the last 20 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

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    4.50 – Ryanair Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: YOU WEAR IT WELL
Trainer – Jamie Snowden
Jockey – Gavin Sheehan
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 8 renewals)
  • All 8 winners aged 5 or 6
  • 6 of the last 8 winners trained in Ireland, but last 2 UK trained
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 8 runnings
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 8 winners were French-bred
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were top or 2nd top rated
  • 5 of the last 8 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 8 past winners started their careers in France
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
  • 4 of the 8 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 8 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 8 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (38%)

Negatives….

  • British trained runners are 2-from-57
  • British bred mares are 1-from-28
  • Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
  • JP McManus owned are 0-from-9
  • 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24

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    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2023 Winner: ANGELS DAWN
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr PA King
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
  • 11 of the last 16 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 10 of the last 12 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 137-143
  • 9 of the last 14 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  • 8 of the last 13 winners hadn’t won that season
    11 of the last 15 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 20 of the last 24 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
  • 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 12)
  • 19 of the last 21 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Just 6 Irish winners in last 40 years (but have won 6 of the last 10)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 1 from 80 since 2005
  • Jus 2 of the last 19 winners aged 10+
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 108 since 2009
  • Just 2 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

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