Tag Archive for: 2024 Newmarket July Festival Trends

2024 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Three, Saturday 13th July

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As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with five more LIVE ITV races too. The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Three, Saturday 13th July 2024

2.12 - Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

15/15 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
14/15 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/15 - Had won over at least 7f before
10/15 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/15 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
4/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/15 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/15 – Winning favourites

2.50 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

20/22 – Had won over 7f or further previously
17/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
16/22 – Had 2 or more runs that season
12/22 – Unplaced in their last race
10/22 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
9/22 – Favourites unplaced
5/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Winning Favourites
2/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 6)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 11 runnings

3.25 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

21/22 – Won over at least 6f previously
20/22 – Placed in their last race
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
17/22 – Won their latest race
15/22 – Won by either a March or April foal
13/22 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/22 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/22 – Favourites unplaced
7/22 – Winning Favourites
4/22 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/22 – Winners from stall 3
5/22 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 14)
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 7)
3/22 - Ridden by William Buick
3/22 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 11 runnings)
2/22 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 4 of the last 8 runnings
City Of Troy (4/6 fav) won this race in 2023

4.00 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

21/22 – Won over 7f previously
20/22 – Raced 3 or more times that season
16/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/22 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
12/22 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/22 – Placed in their last race
10/22 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/22 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4/22 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 13)
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 15)
9 of the last 13 winners came from double-figure draws
15 of the last 16 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 16 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Biggles (5/1) won the race in 2023
Motakhayyel won the race in 2020 and 2021

4.35 – My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

21/22 – Aged 5 or younger
20/22 – Had won over 6f before
18/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
17/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
17/22 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
17/22 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/22 – Placed last time out
10/22 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
10/22 – Unplaced favourites
9/22 – Won their previous race
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 6 winners)
3/22 – Filly winners
2/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of the last 11)
2/22 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/22 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 7/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer

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2024 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Two, Friday 12th July

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As we head into day two of the 2023 Newmarket July Festival this Friday there is bundles more to look forward to with four more LIVE ITV races too. The Group One Falmouth Stakes (3:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two, Friday 12th July 2024

1.50 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
12/17 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
12/17 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/17 – Trained by the Johnston yard (including 7 of last 11 runnings)
7/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 9)
1/17 – Winning favourites
Killybegs Warrior (20/1) won in 2023

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

20/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
20/20 – Had raced at least twice before
19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
18/20 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
17/20 – Foaled in Feb or March
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Won by a UK-based yard
15/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
14/20 – Had won over 6f before
12/20 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 8)
3/20 – Drawn in stall 1 (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3 of the last 9 winners drawn in stall 7
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 4 times in total (but last in 1996)

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just 6 previous running
The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2021 and 2023
The Johnston yard won this race in 2019, 2020 and 2022
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
Godolphin have won 3 of the 6 past runnings
6/6 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
4/6 – Carried 9-0 or more
3/6 – Aged 4 years-old
3/6 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/6 – Winning favourites

3.35 - Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

21/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
20/22 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
18/22 – Had 2+ runs that season
17/22– Won over at least 1 mile previously
17/22 – Won from stall 5 or lower
16/22 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
16/22 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Favourites placed
8/22 – Previous Group One winners
7/22 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/22 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/22 – Won their last race
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 10)
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 12 runnings)
2/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 8 runnings)
2/22 - Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 10 runnings)
2/22 – French-trained winners
2/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (6 wins in total)
Since 1979 all bar 2 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old
The last horse to win aged 5 or older was Soviet Song (2005)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (4)
Nashwa (4/1) won this race in 2023

 

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2024 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day One Thursday 11th July

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The three-day 2024 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (11th July) and runs till Saturday (13th July) - with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle. As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and pinpoint the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One, Thursday 11th July 2024

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

21/22 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
18/22 – Failed to win last time out
17/22 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
14/22 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
14/22 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/22 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/22 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 13 runnings)
4/22 – Ridden by William Buick
3/22 – Won by Godolphin (2 of the last 3 Charlie Appleby)
2/22– Winners that came from stall 1

2.25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

21/22 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
20/22 – Placed in their last run
19/22 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
15/22 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
13/22 – Won their last race
12/22 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
11/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Trained by Hannon yard (10 wins in total)
7/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Winners that came from stall 1

3.00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

16/18 – Had won no more than 3 times before
15/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
14/18 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
15/18 – Carried 8-12 or less
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Came from a double-figure stall
12/18 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/18 – Ridden by David Probert
1/18 – Winning favourites
Quinault (4/1 fav) won the race last year

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Stakes (Sponsored by Kingdom of Bahrain) (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

20/22 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 13 of last 16)
20/22 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
18/22 – Had 2 or more runs that season
17/22 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
16/22 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/22 – Unplaced in their previous race
12/22 – Favourites that were placed
10/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
5/22 – Won by the Johnston yard
4/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 7)
2/22 – Trained by Michael Bell (2 of the last 9)
2/22 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 10)
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
The last 12 winners have been trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Michael Bell, Saeed Bin Suroor, John Gosden, Charlie Appleby & Ed Vaughan

 

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