Tag Archive for: 2024 punchestown festival trends

2024 Punchestown Festival Trends

A huge week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (30th April-4th May 2024). Like all big race meetings, we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these to help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

DAY ONE – Tuesday 30th April 2024

3.40 – KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m 1/2f

10 of the last 18 runnings went to the favourite
11 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
15 of the last 18 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 18 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 24 years (18 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 4 times
16 of the last 17 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2023
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Jessie Harrington won the race in 2013 and 2016
17 of the last 22 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out
2023 Winner: Facile Vega (4/6 fav)

5.25 – William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

9 of the last 20 runnings went to the favourite
19 of the last 24 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
17 of the last 21 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12 of the last 21 had previously won at the track
All of the last 21 winners had won before over 2m
16 of the last 21 came 1st or 2nd last time out
15 of the last 21 were Irish-trained winners
15 of the last 21 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 18 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
15 of the last 20 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
7 of the last 20 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 & 2023
Paul Townend has ridden the last four winners
Energumene won the race in 2022 and 2023
2023 Winner: Energumene (2/7 fav)

DAY TWO – Wednesday 1st May 2024

5.25 – Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Irish-trained winners
14/20 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/20 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
10/20 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
5/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of the last 10)
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 6/1
9 of the last 18 favourites have won
10 of the last 15 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
10 of the last 24 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

DAY THREE – Thursday 2nd May 2024

 4.50 – Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 17 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 24 runnings
11 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 17 carried 12-2 or more
14 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or older
7 of the last 17 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
21 of the last 28 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
10 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race
Singing Banjo won this race in 2021 and 2nd in 2022
2023 Winner: Vital Island (3/1 fav)

5.25 - Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 3m

Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2023 - KLASSICAL DREAM (3/1 jfav)
2022 – KLASSICAL DREAM (11/10 fav)
2021 – KLASSICAL DREAM (5/1)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (16/1)
2018 – FAUGHEEN (11/2)
2017 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (4/1)
2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)

Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

16/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
15/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Aged 8 or younger
13/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
13/20 – Irish trained winners
10/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
7/20 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/20 – Ran in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
Only one Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 23 runnings
The market leader has won 11 of the last 22 runnings
11 of the last 21 winners won their previous race
11 of the 26 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
8 of the last 19 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
13 of the last 20 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before

5.25 - Barberstown Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

9 winning favourites in the last 12 runnings
16 of the last 17 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or older (only 6 of the last 26 aged 6 or younger)
11 of the last 17 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
25 of the last 27 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
10 of the last 17 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 14 times they have had runners
15 of the last 19 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 & 2023 (won the last 8)
Paul Townend has ridden the last three winners
2023 Winner: El Fabiolo (1/4 fav)

DAY FOUR – Friday 3rd May 2024

5.25 – PADDY POWER CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

11 of the last 18 favourites (2 joint) have won
10 of the last 16 winners won last time out
15 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or older
15 of the last 24 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two when running
15 of the last 18 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2023
9 of the last 12 winners returned odds-on in the betting
16 of the last 18 winners were Irish-trained
2023 Winner: State Man (2/5 fav)

6.00 – ALANNA CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

12 of the last 18 favourites have won
12 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 years-old
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 12 of the last 21 runnings
16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Owner J Donnelly has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
2023 Winner: Impaire Et Passe (1/3 fav)

7.35 – Howden Insurance Brokers INH Flat Race (Grade 1) (4-7yo) 2m

4 winning favourites in the last 18 years (1 joint)
17 of the last 19 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 16 winners since 1992
17 of the last 31 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
30 of the last 31 winners had raced 2 or more times before
Not many mares have run in the race, but 5 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2022
The Irish have won 17 of the last 19 runnings
2023 Winner: A Dream To Share (8/11 fav)

DAY FIVE – Saturday 4th May 2024

4.25 – BALLYMORE FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

8 winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
16 of the last 18 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022 & 2023
14 of the last 17 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
8 of the last 15 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
10 of the last 25 runnings went to a British-trained horse
Owner Rich Ricci has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
2023 Winner: Lossiemouth (1/2 fav)

 

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