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Stat of the Day, 7th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.20 Stratford : See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG WON at 13/8 (Led until narrowly headed 4th, pressed leader, in front again 2 out, clear when ridden before last, stayed on well run-in to win by two lengths) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Garsman @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

As usual, we start with a quick glance at the racecard...

Which tells us that we've a consistent sort ridden by a jockey who fares well at this venue. You can see the last six runs from this 3yr old, but he has run seven times this year, winning his first one, so he's actually 1151222 in 2020. Those three wins include two over this minimum 5f trip and one at today's Class 4 and it's his recent string of runner-up finishes that interests me today, as I do look out the 222's as I call them.

Essentially, it's like this... in UK Class 2-5 contests since the start of 2016, horses with a recent form line of 222 who were beaten by less than 10 lengths LTO 6-45 days earlier (not as complicated as it looks in print) are...

with the following of relevance today...

  • 136/504 (27%) for 97pts (+19.2%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 86/394 (21.8%) for 60.2pts (+15.3%) in handicaps
  • 102/377 (27.1%) for 150.7pts (+40%) in fields of 6-12 runners
  • 59/205 (28.8%) for 30.3pts (+14.8%) on the Flat
  • 46/201 (22.9%) for 16.7pts (+8.3%) at Class 4
  • 34/148 (23%) for 24.6pts (+16.6%) over trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • and 26/83 (31.3%) for 26.2pts (+31.6%) on Good to Firm...

...whilst those sent off shorter than 12/1 in 6-12 runner handicaps are 66/256 (25.8% SR) for 80.2pts (+31.3% ROI), including...

  • 33/99 (33.3%) for 64.2pts (+64.8%) on the Flat
  • 18/66 (27.3%) for 41.5pts (+62.9%) over 5-7f
  • and 16/38 (42.1%) for 44.7pts (+117.6%) on good to firm ground...

...which somewhat belatedly explains... a 1pt win bet on Garsman @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs ) at 8.00 am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!