Thursday's pick was...
5.00 Newmarket : Matewan @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, driven to lead narrowly inside final furlong, headed final strides and beaten in a photo by a short head)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...
As we generally do, our first port of the call is the Geegeez racecard, which tells us so much about a runner without changing pages or looking things up.
We see that we've got a 5yr old in excellent form including a win last time out 15 days ago. He hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C1, C5) and will be ridden by a jockey in good form (14) who has also done well at this venue (C1, C5).
Tabaahy also featured three times on my angles report (hence the 3) and I've opened them up for you to see that my report parameters specify a high A/E and an even higher IV figure allied to a strike rate of at least 20%.
Those details plus the jockey & trainer stats are pretty self explanatory and could be enough to form the basis of a bet, but let's take a closer look at the living elements at play today.
The horse has four wins and two places from just eight runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today...
- 3w, 2pl from 7 handicaps
- 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5yrs old
- 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5f
- 3w, 1pl from 6 at Class 5
- 3w, 1pl from 5 left-handed
- 3w, 1pl from 4 sub-6/1 runs
- 3w, 1pl from 4 in fields of fewer than 9 runners
- and 2w, 1pl from 3 off a mark (OR) in the 70's
And next up is the jockey Adam McNamara, whose 12-month record at Lingfield is no flash in the pan, as shown by his record over the past near-30 months...
And of those 39 rides, Adam is...
- 8/28 (28.6%) for 23.03pts (+82.2%) at evens to 10/1
- 7/31 (22.6%) for 33.25pts (+107.3%) at Class 5/6
- 7/25 (28%) for 47.68pts (+190.7%) on male runners
- 5/19 (26.3%) for 31.42pts (+165.4%) on those rested for 6-20 days
- 4/14 (28.6%) for 48.34pts (+345.3%) on 4/5 yr olds
- and 3/5 (60%) for 42.3pts (+846%) in fields of 7 or fewer runners
...whilst he is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 18.91pts (+157.6% ROI)) on Class 5/6 males sent off at Evens to 10/1.
And finally to the trainer, David O'Meara, whose numbers on the A/W here at Lingfield since the start of 2019 currently stand at...
Again we have excellent strike rate, profit/ROI and A/E figures and a dig down into those 54 runners show that David's charges are...
- 13/39 (33.3%) for 50.2pts (+128.7%) at odds of Evens to 8/1
- 12/46 (26.1%) for 38.97pts (+84.7%) in handicaps
- 9/23 (39.1%) for 50.14pts (+218%) over 5/6 furlongs
- 8/19 (42.1%) for 25.14pts (+132.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
- 6/20 (30%) for 23.82pts (+119.1%) with those last raced 11-20 days earlier
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.77pts (+144.4%) in races worth less than £4k
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.71pts (+130.1%) with LTO winners
- and 2/4 (50%) for 5.66pts (+141.4%) over this 5f course and distance...
...whilst in handicaps over 5/6 furlongs at Evens to 8/1, they are 9 from 16 (56.25% SR) for 57.13pts (+357.1% ROI)...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Coral at 8.10am Friday (and still available an hour later), but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!