Posts

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Brighton : Toni's A Star @ 7/1 8th at 5/1 (Chased leader until over 1f out, chased leaders, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over f on Good ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare has run consistently well over hurdles, making the frame in 8 of 10 starts, winning three times. She won last time out 16 days ago, despite coming back from 22 weeks off the track and she has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 in handicaps, 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under today's jockey Adam Wedge and 2 wins and a place from 3 starts in handicaps under Mr Wedge.

Her trainer, Emma Lavelle, is 32 from 133 (24.1% SR) for 89.4pts (+67.2% ROI) in Class 3-5 NH handicaps during July to January with horses who have had 10 or fewer previous handicap outing and these include...

  • 17/73 (23.3%) for 52.6pts (+72%) over hurdles
  • 16/72 (22.2%) for 53.4pts (+74.2%) at Class 3
  • 13/50 (26%) for 28.9pts (+57.8%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 40.4pts (+91.8%) during October & November
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 50pts (+156.2%) with Adam Wedge in the saddle
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.8pts (+119.9%) with LTO winners
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 15.4pts (+69.9%) this year
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.28pts (+145.6%) here at Ludlow...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday whilst Betfair/PP were half a point bigger, but won'y go BOG until tomorrow. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Indeed @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leader, led over 1f out, edged left, stayed on well)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one of only two runners in this race to have actually won a race in the past and is the only winner at this 2m trip. She was a decent second last time out (13 days ago at Uttoxeter) with the final 6 lengths margin of defeat only happening in the closing stages as she struggled to see out 2m4f. That said, she was conceding 21lbs to the winner and yet still finished 7, 36 and 43 lengths respectively clear of the next three home.

She runs off the same mark again today and the drop back in trip should also help, as should the booking of experienced rider Adam Wedge. Adam has a good record here at this venue and since 2015, he's 19 from 84 (22.6% SR) for 48.7pts (+58% ROI) when riding in handicaps for trainer Evan Williams here and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 15/53 (28.3%) for 45.5pts (+85.6%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 15/60 (25%) for 53.5pts (+89.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 39.6pts (+113%) top 3 finishers LTO
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 64.3pts (+189.1%) on 5/6 yo's
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.1pts (+32%) over this 2m trip
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) on good to soft

...whilst Wedge/Williams + 5-7 yo's + 7/4 to 8/1 + top 3 LTO + 6-30 dslr = 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 37.1pts (+337.3% ROI)...

More generally, Evan has had success with turning horses back out fairly quickly after a decent run. Numerically/specifically, I'm saying that since the start of 2016 his runners in UK NH handicaps who had a top 3 finish LTO in the previous fortnight are 17 from 55 (30.9% SR) for 32.8pts (+60.8% ROI) and whilst 15 runners a year isn't a large dataset to look at, there are some angles that (a) keep cropping up and (b) are valid today, such as...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+93.6%) from LTO runners-up
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 24.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 4
  • 7/28 (25%) for 21.6pts (+77%) off the same mark as LTO
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.5%) ridden by Adam Wedge
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 24.6pts (+223.7%) from May to July
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.9pts (+137.5%) in Novice handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.54pts (+94.9%) here at Ffos Las
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.97pts (+21.9%) from female runners

...and LTO runners-up racing at Class 4 off the same mark as LTO are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.57pts (+282.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.50 Wolverhampton : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, effort when short of room inside final furlong to go 2nd.

My next attempt to stop crossbar-rattling and drag myself off the cold list goes in Wednesday's...

2.00 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap over 2m on Good To Soft worth £7798...

...and a 6 yr old gelding with solid Irish P2P form from 4 runs at the end of 2016, winning the last of them ahead of a Rules debut at Ffos Las in March of this year. He was a winner that day too by some 30 lengths, although he did have some luck along the way.

He was just over a length down after the last hurdle but was staying on well, when the leader jinked and unseated hos rider, leaving our boy with a facile opportunity to score at the first attempt.

He can be expected to have come on for having had the experience and you just know that as an ex-pointer he should just jump well and no doubt his handler, Evan Williams will have had him extensively schooled during his 252 day break ahead of this handicap debut.

Evan does well with his jumping debutants and those priced at 6/ to 11/1 are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.6% ROI) since 2011, including...

  • males at 14/69 (20.3%) for 28.6pts (+41.5%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 10/40 (25%) for 18.3pts (+45.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Wedge are 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+148.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 6 to 10 months are 4/14 (28.6%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.3pts (+155.3%)

It's no surprise to see the yard has had a couple of winners on handicap debut at this track, as more generally/recently, the Williams runners have a good time of it here at Chepstow, winning 19 of 102 (18.6% SR) for 117.2pts (+114.9% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • males are 17/88 (19.3%) for 102.7pts (+116.8%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m3.5f : 15/72 (20.8%) for 117.4pts (+163%)
  • at odds of Evens to 17/2 : 14/56 (25%) for 20.8pts (+37.1%)
  • ridden by Adam Wedge : 6/31 (19.4%) for 6.9pts (+22.3%)
  • over the 2m trip : 9/30 (30%) for 24.6pts (+82%)
  • those rated (OR) 119-130 are 7/27 (25.9%) for 25.7pts (+95.3%)
  • in October/November : 8/20 (40%) for 145.3pts (+726.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.95pts (+41.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/13 (46.2%) for 121.9pts (+937.9%)
  • and those coming back from 6-10 months off the track are 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.98pts (+90.7%)

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from BetVictor, BoyleSports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2016

Boxing Day's Result :

1.40 Wincanton : Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG WON at 3/1 - Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, led approaching last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pobbles Bay @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A relatively uncomplicated explanation (for a change!) this time about a 6 yr old gelding who returned from a 216-day absence to win on his chasing bow at Uttoxeter last time out.

He was a winner by 16 lengths that day, 45 days ago, on soft ground in this grade and under today's jockey and there's every chance he'll improve for the experience, especially as the 3rd, 4th and 6th placed horses (who were 20, 25 and 47 lengths behind him) have all won since.

He's up in trip today, but stays 3m2f, he's 2/3 at this grade and has, of course, won under today's jockey Adam Wedge.

From a statistical point of view, Evan Williams' NH handicappers making only their second appearance in a 90-day period are 84/533 (15.8% SR) for 162.9pts (+30.6% ROI) since the start of 2010, with the following of particular relevance here today...

  • in chases : 51/280 (18.2%) for 64.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/127 (15.8%) for 58.9pts (+46.4%)
  • under Adam Wedge : 26/125 (20.8%) for 86.3pts (+69%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m1.5f : 18/113 (15.9%) for 60.7pts (+53.7%)
  • 6yr olds : 19/101 (18.8%) for 63.95pts (+63.3%)
  • LTO winners : 21/72 (29.2%) for 64pts (+88.9%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 7/44 (15.9%) for 30.1pts (+68.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pobbles Bay at 9/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and also from BetVictor, Betway and/or Hills (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 8.20pm on Boxing Day (yes, we work through Christmas for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 9/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.40 Newton Abbot : Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG still to run (report to follow later).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Slidecheck at 4/1 BOG.

Why?

This 9yr old gelding was beaten in each of his first ten starts until being partnered with today's jockey Adam Wedge, but he now comes here having completed a hat-trick of wins taking his career tally to a far more respectable 3/13.

He won those three races in pretty close succession and has now been allowed a couple of months rest before resuming hostilities today and his 3/13 record seems to fit well within the parameters of today's contest, as he is now...

  • 3/9 in cheekpieces
  • 3/7 since the move to Alex Dunn's yard
  • 3/4 when priced at 7/1 or shorter
  • 3/3 under Adam Wedge
  • 1/1 here at Bangor
  • 1/1 at this trip
  • and as a result of the above, 1/1 over course and distance when he won here by 5 lengths two starts ago.

As mentioned briefly above, he's trained by Alex Dunn, a relatively "new" name in NH racing, but she has already proved that she's no mug with 16 handicap chase winners since the start of 2014 at a strike rate of 16% from exactly 100 runners, generating 42.5pts (+42.5% ROI) profits in the process.

In the context of this contest, that century of handicap chasers are...

  • 10/40 (25% SR) for 64pts (+160% ROI) at the ages of 9 & 10
  • 6/38 (15.8% SR) for 46pts (+121% ROI) on good ground
  • 6/36 (16.7% SR) for 51.8pts (+144% ROI) off a break of 26-120 days
  • 12/30 (40% SR) for 27.9pts (+93% ROI) priced in the 2/1 to 11/2 range
  • 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 3.29pts (+15.6% ROI) under Adam Wedge
  • 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 7.08pts (+39.3% ROI) from LTO winners
  • and 2/4 here at Bangor for profits of 6.32pts (+158.1% ROI)

And so the call is...a 1pt win bet on Slidecheck at 4/1 BOG which was available with around 10 bookies at 6.25pm. Those of you not yet restricted by Betway can get 9/2, but that isn't BOG until morning and to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015

Monday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Aleator @ 3/1 BOG 4th of 7 at 7/4 (Went 2nd on outside 8f out, ridden lost 2nd and outpaced over 1f out, plugged on but no threat after)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

1.10 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding comes here in good nick, after been a winner over hurdles on similarly soft ground just 8 days ago. That run was the first time he'd been partnered by today's jockey Adam Wedge and he won comfortably by 6 lengths despite not having raced for 238 days.

He runs off the same mark today, albeit over fences and should come on for having had the run and now runs off a mark a pound lower than his only other start over fences, when beaten by less than 5 lengths into third place on bottomless ground at Bangor back in February.

Zero Visibility is also 1 from 1 here at Fontwell, having won here over today's trip over hurdles by 7 lengths on heavy ground just over a year ago and with testing conditions forecast, he'll be happy, having won 2 of 4 starts on soft ground (P131) and he has a win and two places from four runs on heavy.

So, to date, he's 3 from 12, but of those 12 starts, he is 3/8 on soft/heavy, 3/8 at 9/2 and shorter, 3/8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners and 3/7 at Class 5, leading us to...

...Zero Visibility has three wins and a place from five runs (1P131) at class 5 on soft/heavy ground when priced at 9/2 or shorter in a race with fewer than 8 runners.

He's also trained by Alex Dunn, who has done really well with her NH handicappers in the short time she's held a licence, with 22 of her 194 runners (11.3% SR) winning their races and generating level stakes profits of 74.5pts at an ROI of 38.4%, making her well worth following, especially under today's race conditions, where she is...

  • 22/174 (12.6% SR) for 94.5pts (+54.3% ROI) with horse aged 6 to 10 yrs old
  • 9/74 (12.2% SR) for 33.7pts (+45.6% ROI) in chases
  • 8/55 (14.6% SR) for 22pts (+40% ROI) at Class 5
  • 7/37 (18.9% SR) for 38.4pts (+103.8% ROI) with those ridden by Adam Wedge
  • 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 24.5pts (+74.2% ROI) with those racing at trips of 2m 1.5f to 2m 3.5f.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 5.45pm?

A 1pt win bet on Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG, that's with BetVictor and also as a non-BOG price available from Betway and/or Ladbrokes with 9/4 BOG being the best alternative BOG on offer at present. I think this one might shorten, so if you can't get on with betVictor, you should consider the better non-BOG price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015

Well, Micky Hammond got his Hexham winner again on Thursday, but unfortunately for us it was Endless Credit in the opener.

Our 4/1 bet on Auldthunder, however, went unrewarded despite beating the 3/1 SP comfortably again. It was a workmanlike rather than spectacular effort and but for slowing at the finish, he'd have finished third, but lost that on the line.

I'm not convinced he got 3m 1f on ground that looked stickier than good to the naked eye and had to be driven from a good way out. That said he plugged on and was involved in a decent battle for the minor honours, as the eventual winner had bolted off and made all.

The beauty of a daily service, is that although I have no hiding places, I do get an almost instant shot at redemption and my quest for a winner now takes me to the...

4.15 Fakenham:

And Ali Stronge's 11/2 BOG priced, consistent hurdler Cappielow Park.

Ali Stronge might not be a familiar name to all of you, but she's been on my radar for a while now. She's a dual-code trainer based in Lambourn and after having three horses run for her in 2012 has begun to kick on since the start of 2013 and she's making a bit of name for herself as a successful NH handicap trainer.

She might not stay under the radar if sites like Geegeez start to highlight her, but what can you do? Anyway in a little over two years, she has already had 14 handicap winners from just 94 runners, a decent strike rate of 14.9% that has produced level stakes profits of 18.6pts at an ROI of 19.8% to date.

Her handicap hurdlers are 1054 (18.5% SR) for 40.5pts (+75% ROI), with the 2/1 to 12/1 price band providing most success with 10 winners from 40 (25% SR) and profits of 54.5pts (+136.3% ROI).

Ali has also has success here at Fakenham already with 5 of her 10 runners here returning as winners and bringing home 35.16pts profit in the process, from which her hurdlers are 4/8 (50% SR) for 33.78pts (+422.3% ROI) and her handicap hurdlers are 3/5 (60% SR) for 30.08pts (+601.6% ROI).

Adam Wedge is in the saddle today and he's already managed to bag 6 winners from just 14 rides on Ali's horses with that 42.9% strike rate producing 53.2pts profit at an ROI of 379.9% ROI. Over hurdles, the partnership is 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 54.2pts (+416.8% ROI) and in handicap hurdles the figures are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 52.8pts (+480.1% SR).

All those rides were at prices of 12/1 or shorter and they are 3 from 4 here at Fakenham together.

I appreciate and accept that the above sets of data aren't the biggest sample sizes I've ever used, but I've told you about all of the trainer's runners. I've not cherrypicked years or types of races/tracks etc. It's just that she's fairly new!

But if you want something a little more substantial to go off, let's switch attention to the horse, Cappielow Park, who was last seen 16 days ago winning a novice handicap by two lengths over today's trip on heavy ground at Wincanton, which will hopefully follow the precedent that...

...since 2008, male handicap hurdlers who won a novice hurdle last time out 16 to 25 ago followed up with another win on 77 of 369 (20.9% SR) occasions, recording level stakes profits of 137.6pts (+37.3% ROI).

Those sent off in the 6/4 to 9/1 range are 69/267 (25.8% SR) for 135.9pts (+50.9% ROI) with those whop won by a head to 4 lengths last time going on to win 42 of 150 (28% SR) for 100.1pts (+66.7% ROI) profit next time around.

Cappielow Park has been in decent consistent form over hurdles in the last twelve months with a run of results reading 41122U1 and in the same time, he has been turned out on the level on four occasions, making the frame in two of those races. He has won once and been the runner-up once from three Adam Wedge rides and today will be just his third attempt at Class 3 racing, having a win and a runner-up finish to his name already.

This is a a tougher task than his last outing and he's up 4lbs for that win, but the ground conditions are much better here than they were for his last run, so perhaps his stamina might not be over stretched by the extra weight. He has won on good ground in the past and all his best form is in and around this type of trip, so an 11/2 BOG bet on Cappielow Park looks a decent option to me here. I'm on with Bet365, but at least three other firms are offering the same price, so why not...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Trainer Stats: Thurs 26th Jan 2012

Williams A Hot Name At Present

It‘s simple this week – just look out for a trainer with the surname ‘Williams’ - Maybe Serena, Robbie and Venus should take up a licence! Read more