Posts

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.10 Catterick : Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Tracked winner, joined winner 4f out, ridden 2f out, no extra and lost 2nd inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Firm ground, worth £3119 to the winner...  

Why?

On a poor looking day of racing, where I can see many short-ish priced horses winning, the price taken about our pick might actually look decent for a 4 yr old gelding who won last time out at Newton Abbot 22 days ago and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a Class 4 contest.

That LTO win was over slightly longer (2m1f) than today's and the victorious jockey, Aidan Coleman, has retained the ride and indeed makes the journey here for just the one contest, which may or may not be significant.

That said, AC doesn't venture to Sedgefield too often anyway, this will be only his 12th effort over hurdles at this track since the start of 2011. Mind you, he is 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 1.47pts (+13.3% ROI) in that time, including...

  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 6.47pts (+107.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 3/6 (50%) for 3.06pts (+51%) in handicaps
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.18pts (+54.5%) at Class 5

Aidan is also 6/24 (25% SR) for 1.81pts (+7.53% ROI) over hurdles for trainer Olly Murphy including 3 wins for 15 (20%) for 3.67pts (+24.4% ROI) in handicaps and the yard itself seems to be going well with 5 winners from 16 (31.25%) for 2.83pts (+17.7%) over the last 30 days, including a winner and a runner-up from two at Newton Abbot yesterday, taking the 30 day hurdles tally to 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.53pts (+50.3%)

In fact, backing all of Olly Murphy's hurdlers so far in 2018 would give you 32 winners from 171 (18.7% SR) for 25.2pts (+14.7% ROI) and these include...

  • males at 26/126 (20.6%) for 50.9pts (+40.4%)
  • at 10/3 and shorter : 24/59 (40.7%) for 5.39pts (+9.14%)
  • over 2m/2m½f : 8.45 (17.8%) for 47.1pts (+104.7%)
  • and LTO winners are 11/24 (45.8%) for 1.39pts (+5.8%)

Most of today's stats show healthy strike rates, but the ROIs don't seem overly impressive. That doesn't deter me, it just suggests that the runners are well backed and go off quite short, so taking the early price might well grab us a bit of value...

...by placing... a 1pt win bet on Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2017

Monday's Result :

3.15 Ayr : Braes of Lochalsh @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/2 Led, clear 10f out, reduced lead 6f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.35 Uttoxeter...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terry The Fish3/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old gelding on a hat-trick following back to back successes over this track and trip, the latest of which was a comfortable 11 lengths win 20 days ago. This horse has been flagged several times on my database report and interests me in plenty of ways, but in the interests of time/brevity, I'm just going to give you five things to think about...

  1. Jonjo O'Neill's horses ridden by Aidan Coleman here at Uttoxeter are 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 3.71pts (+9.76% ROI), from which handicappers are 7/27 (25.9%) for 7.95pts (+29.4%) with hcp hurdlers winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 2.93pts (+32.6%)
  2. From 2012-2017, male hcp hurdlers who won another hcp hurdle by 4 to 15 lengths LTO 3-45 days ago are 337/1277 (26.4%) for 250.9pts (+19.7%)
  3. Jonjo's hcp hurdlers who were LTO winners 16-30 days ago are 20/70 (28.6%) for 26.7pts (+38.%) since 2012
  4. Since 2008 in hcp hurdles, LTO winners with a previous C&D won are 338/1746 (19.4%) for 163.4pts (+9.4%) with those who won at the same course and distance LTO winning 242 of 1193 (20.3%) for 152.6pts (+12.8%)
  5.  And since 2012 in UK hacp hurdles, those horses being asked to carry 12-0 to 12-4 (inclusive) are 58/168 (34.5%) for 80.9pts (+48.2%), of which Class 4 runners are 31/81 (38.3%) for 55.8pts (+68.8%), those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.7pts (+59.2%) and those ridden by Aidan at Class 4 are 3/6 (50%) for 10.75pts (+179.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Terry The Fish3/1 BOG which was widely available at 12.15am on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Uttoxeter..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.25 Kempton: Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In touch, effort over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Easter Monday's runner goes in the...

3.35 Market Rasen:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Blue Rambler @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Ground speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue here with a horse that was 4 from 4 on the Flat in France and eemed good enough to run in Listed Class in his second/last UK Flat outing (1m6f).

He has finished 322 in three efforts over hurdles, with the middle run being his best to date. That run was over a considerably longer trip (2m3.5f) than the other two which were inadequately short, so I'm expecting this distance to suit him. That middle run was at Musselburgh in early February, when he was only beaten by half a length behind the 135-rated Jetstream Jack, suggesting that an opening handciap mark of 124 could well be on the lenient side today.

His trainer, John Ferguson has a record of 17 wins from 57 runners (29.8% SR) for profits of 10.44pts (+18.3% ROI) here at Market Rasen and those runners can be further scrutinised as follows...

  • those running on good/good to soft ground are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 15.3pts (+33.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 15/43 (34.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% SR)
  • those racing over 17 to 20.5 furlongs are 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+73.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 26 to 60 days ago are 10/20 (50% SR) for 19.7pts (+98.5% ROI)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 3.74pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • those who were 2nd LTO are 7/14 (50% SR) for 19.5pts (+139.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, John has sent Blue Rambler to the track as his only runner of the meeting, but it's a tactic that has been fruitful in the past, with his single entrants winning 112 of 393 (28.5% SR) for 38.2ptys (+9.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2011, and these runners are...

  • 90/307 (29.3% SR) for 25.8pts (+8.4% ROI) over hurdles
  • 52/157 (33.1% SR) for 45pts (+28.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 and 6
  • 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 17pts (+17.5% ROI) on good to soft ground.

And not only is Blue Rambler John's only runner here at Market Rasen today, this 6yr old gelding is the yard's only runner anywhere on Easter Monday. And since the start of 2013, these solo runners have paid their way by winning 70 of 207 races (33.8% SR) producing level stakes profits of 45.5pts at an ROI of 22%, broken down as follows...

  • hurdlers are 57/161 (35.4% SR) for 41pts (+25.5%ROI)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 10/1 (we should be fine here!) are 34/118 (+28.8% SR) for 51.7pts (+43.8% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/54 (37% SR) for 30.5pts (+56.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 17/41 (41.5% SR) for 31.8pts (+77.6% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Blue Rambler at 4/1 BOG with any one of the six firms currently (10.00pm Sunday) quoting that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.25 Kempton: Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In touch, effort over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Easter Monday's runner goes in the...

3.35 Market Rasen:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Rambler @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Ground speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue here with a horse that was 4 from 4 on the Flat in France and deemed good enough to run in Listed Class in his second/last UK Flat outing (1m6f).

He has finished 322 in three efforts over hurdles, with the middle run being his best to date. That run was over a considerably longer trip (2m3.5f) than the other two which were inadequately short, so I'm expecting this distance to suit him. That middle run was at Musselburgh in early February, when he was only beaten by half a length behind the 135-rated Jetstream Jack, suggesting that an opening handciap mark of 124 could well be on the lenient side today.

His trainer, John Ferguson has a record of 17 wins from 57 runners (29.8% SR) for profits of 10.44pts (+18.3% ROI) here at Market Rasen and those runners can be further scrutinised as follows...

  • those running on good/good to soft ground are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 15.3pts (+33.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 15/43 (34.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% SR)
  • those racing over 17 to 20.5 furlongs are 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+73.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 26 to 60 days ago are 10/20 (50% SR) for 19.7pts (+98.5% ROI)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 3.74pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • those who were 2nd LTO are 7/14 (50% SR) for 19.5pts (+139.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, John has sent Blue Rambler to the track as his only runner of the meeting, but it's a tactic that has been fruitful in the past, with his single entrants winning 112 of 393 (28.5% SR) for 38.2ptys (+9.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2011, and these runners are...

  • 90/307 (29.3% SR) for 25.8pts (+8.4% ROI) over hurdles
  • 52/157 (33.1% SR) for 45pts (+28.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 and 6
  • 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 17pts (+17.5% ROI) on good to soft ground.

And not only is Blue Rambler John's only runner here at Market Rasen today, this 6yr old gelding is the yard's only runner anywhere on Easter Monday. And since the start of 2013, these solo runners have paid their way by winning 70 of 207 races (33.8% SR) producing level stakes profits of 45.5pts at an ROI of 22%, broken down as follows...

  • hurdlers are 57/161 (35.4% SR) for 41pts (+25.5%ROI)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 10/1 (we should be fine here!) are 34/118 (+28.8% SR) for 51.7pts (+43.8% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/54 (37% SR) for 30.5pts (+56.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 17/41 (41.5% SR) for 31.8pts (+77.6% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Blue Rambler at 4/1 BOG with any one of the six firms currently (10.00pm Sunday) quoting that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2016

Monday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd 3rd, led 6th, headed 3 out, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

4.10 Exeter:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Renard @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding was a runner-up when last seen 11 days ago and should be competitive having had the recent effort and especially now eased 2lbs and dropped two classes to a grade where he is currently 2 from 2 and he comes to Exeter where his trainer Venetia Williams' handicap chasers (all male!) are 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 26.5pts (+189.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2015.

Of those 14 'capper chasing males...

  • those running on soft/heavy are 3/12 for 19.1pts
  • class 4 runners are 2/5 for 20.4pts
  • Aidan Coleman has ridden 2 winners from 5 for 16.5pts
  • and at 2m3f/2m3.5f, they are 2 from 2 for 19.1pts

In addition to the above, Venetia's handicap chasers dropping down in class are 39/231 (16.9% SR) for 12.3pts (+5.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with the following angles prevalent here...

  • soft ground runners are 18/86 for 11.6pts
  • class 4 runners are 14/67 for 8.13pts
  • those priced at 5/4 to 7/2 are 20/53 for 13.5pts
  • those racing over 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 8/33 for 25.8pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 2 from 10 for 15.4pts

Plus, Ms Williams' handicap jumpers running after a string of 5 or more successive defeats and are now rated lower than their last jumps win have won 21 of 74 (28.4% SR) races for profits of 34.3pts (+46.3% ROI) when sent off in the 13/8 to 13/2 price range since the start of 2012. Of particular interest to me today, are the following facts...

  • males are 19/68 for 31.7pts
  • chasers are 17/62 for 19.4pts
  • soft ground runners are 12/39 for 27.8pts
  • class 4 runners are 10/36 for 13.5pts
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 8/27 for 12.5pts
  • in races of 2m0.5f to 2,4.5f, they are 10/23 for 26pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 1 from 2 for 4.33pts

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Renard at 11/4 BOG, a price available with Betbright, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 5.40pm, so to take your pick of the pack, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2015

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Ludlow : Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG 2nd of 7 at 2/1 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, went 2nd after 4 out, led 3 out, mistake 2 out, ridden and headed before last, stayed on same pace flat)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

1.10 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cyclop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

1. Trainer David Dennis' NH runners are not only in fine recent form, but they also tend to go rather well here at Market Rasen. In fact over the last fortnight, his NH runners have won 4 from 6 (11F131) with a 2 from 2 record over fences and when you add to the mix the fact that his runners priced 4/1 and shorter are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for  7.62pts (+95.3% ROI) profit at this track, then Cyclop becomes of obvious interest as David's most likely winner from two sent here today.

2. He calls upon the services of Aidan Coleman for the 10th time over fences today and they've already won 3 from 9 (33.33% SR) for 7.7pts (+85.5% ROI) together (3 from 8 in hcp chases) and Aidan himself has a decent record at this venue, winning 17 of 96 (17.7% SR) over the last 5 years and at the sharper end of the market ie 6/4 to 7/1, he is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 16.7pts (+36.4% ROI) with a record over fences of 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 8.84pts (+55.2% ROI).

3. And now back to David Dennis, for whom the last 23 months have brought so much success, especially in handicap contests where this "new" trainer has already hit 37 winners from just 243 runners (15.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 58.9pts (+24.3% ROI), broken down with this race in mind as follows...

  • class 4 : 20/99 (20.2% SR) for 22.9pts (+23.2% ROI)
  • 6/1 and shorter : 29/96 (30.2% SR) for 57.5pts (+59.9% ROI)
  • chases : 14/74 (18.9% SR) for 31.1pts (+42.1% ROI)
  • soft ground : 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 2.63pts (+6.1% ROI)
  • over the 3m trip : 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 26.4pts (+203.1% ROI)

And slightly broader/more generally, David's Class 4/5 handicap jumpers priced at 6/1 or shorter on ground deemed worse (ie softer) than good are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for profits of 48.1pts at an ROI of 166%!

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.45pm?

A 1pt win bet on Cyclop3/1 BOG with either of Coral or BetVictor to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Market Rasen

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Stat of the Day, 8th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2014

Last week was a good week and we came very close to landing a third winning bet inside four days with an 8/1 E/W bet on Gravitational. The race was competitive, as I though it might be and we were just edged out for a place by half a length.

Our runner was sent off at 6/1 and just didn't have the closing pace needed to catch the third-placed horse on the run in, but it was a bold enough effort and I have no complaints.

Long-distance hurdling represents a bit of a shift in action today, as we head to Devon for the...

4.40 Newton Abbot:

And a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG on Champions Versions, who tackles this 3m3f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle just four days after winning by two lengths over a slightly longer trip at Sedgefield on Thursday. That was his first win of his 11-race career and this seven year old is turned out again quickly to see if he can repeat the feat.

He is trained by Lawney Hill...

...about whom I have a few stats to relay to you, but the core stat underpinning any selection trained by Mrs Hill is that you can back all of her runners sent off at 16/1 and make a blind profit. We love trainers like this.

More specifically, since the start of 2009, 110 of her 616 runners (17.9% SR) have been victorious and the level stakes profits have produced 108.4pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation to BOG odds), which is a 17.6% return on all stakes.

This is excellent for blind backing such a large number of runners. as today's contest is over hurdles, it might be wise to just look at how her runners perform just over hurdles! And a 17.6% strike rate (51/290) is pretty much in line with the overall stat, but the level stakes profits of 64.6pts (+22.3% ROI) are a slight improvement.

A while ago, however, Matt told me that under certain conditions, the Hill runners could double your money for you. I, of course, wrote the details down and popped them in one of my notebooks (I write everything down! 😀 ) and those optimum conditions for backing Lawney's horses are as follows:

Horse aged 5 to 8 (CV is 7) / Class 4 to 6 races (C5 today) / March to October (September) and since the start of 2008, Mrs Hill has sent out 338 runners fitting those criteria. 75 of the 338 (22.2% SR) were winners and the 392.3pts level stakes profits produced from these runners is the equivalent of 116.1%.

So Matt was right, you could more than double your money! Incidentally, the yard's runners fitting that bill here at Newton Abbot are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 11.1pts (+100.9% ROI).

Our selection ran as recently as four days ago, won't this be a hindrance?

Possibly, but history would suggest otherwise.

Handicap hurdlers aged 7 to 9 who reappeared within 2 to 6 days of their last outing and were priced between 2/1 and 9/1 went on to win 136 of those 655 quick returns since 2008. This 20.8% strike rate has, so far, generated 162.8pts profit at an ROI of 24.9%.

Not only did he run 4 days ago, he won 4 days ago...

NH horses running within 5 days of a win last time out have actually won 286 of 801 follow-up efforts since 2008, which is a fantastic strike rate of 35.7%.

As you'd expect from in-form horses, they're generally well backed which affects the ROI from the profits, but these runners still give a return of 15% above stakes invested via a total profit of 119.8pts.

This year alone, the record is 28 winners from 69 (40.6% SR) for 12.74pts at an ROI of 18.5%.

Because Champions Versions ran from 3lbs outside the handicap for his win last time out, his 5lb penalty is only effectively 2lbs and if he runs like he ran at Sedgefield, he could very well go in again. The very able Aidan Coleman is, once again, on board, as he was last week (8521 in the horse) and the horse has produced all his best form at this type of trip and the going today will be similarly good to what he faced in the North East.

This could be a fair test of stamina and although he is 2lbs higher in the weights, he is actually bottom weight of the 7 runners and receiving chunks of it all round.

He's a little shorter in the market than I normally go for, but he's still a bit longer than I expected, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Champions Versions at 11/4 BOG.

I've gone with Coral, but at least three other firms are offering that same price, so why not take your pick of the bookies, when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Newton Abbot

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Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

A nice comfortable victory for Naivasha at Bath got us back to winning ways on Friday, as she virtually made all before pulling clear in the final furlong to score by almost three lengths.

We got on at 9/4, which proved to be marginally better than her 2/1 SP, but she did go as low as 6/4 during the afternoon.

Hurdles action awaits us on Saturday with the...

4.35 Worcester:

Where Alan King's Simply A Legend is priced up at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor on his bid to complete a hat-trick of hurdles victories.

Alan King has a record of 5 winners from 16 in hurdle races here at Worcester with horses priced at 7/1 or shorter, with both of his runners winning here last year.

Simply A Legend is to be ridden by Aidan Coleman who has ridden 15 winners from 95 rides (15.8% SR) here at Worcester over the last five seasons with those winners generating 63.6pts profit, a figure equivalent to 67% of all stakes invested.

This 5 yr old gelding had finished second in three of his first four hurdles races, all at shorter trips than today, before the application of a hood and a step up to 2m 3.5f did the trick at Ascot at the end of March, where he stayed on well to win by three parts of a length.

He was then stepped up to 2m 5f at Kempton and won by half a length, despite blundering at the last. He travelled well throughout and always seemed to be just doing enough to win and probably with a fair bit to spare.

He now comes to Worcester in a bid to land the hat-trick in what will be his handicap debut for a trainer who has the happy knack of getting horses to perform well in their first handicap outings.

Over the last four years, Alan King's handicap debutants have won 16 of 94 attempts for a 17% strike rate and 32.25pts profit making for an ROI of 34.3%. His hurdlers provided the bulk of the winners and runners with a record of 14 wins from 85 (16.5% SR) for 30.9pts (+36.3% ROI), with the 5yr old hurdlers winning 7 times from 36 (19.4% SR) for 26.7pts (+47.9% ROI) profit.

If we apply a 10/1 odds cap: the hurdling handicap debutants have won 13 of 54 races (24.1% SR) for 35.7pts (+66/1% ROI), with the 5yr olds having a record of 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 14.5pts (+66.1% ROI).

At 7/1 or shorter: 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+63.5% ROI) with 5yr olds winning 6 of 18 (33.33% SR) races for 18.5pts (+103% ROI).

And if the price shortens from our 11/2 BOG advised odds, that could be a good sign, as the record at 5/1 or shorter is 9 wins from 25 (36% SR) for 22.5pts (+89.9% ROI) and the 5 yr olds have won 5 times from 9 (55.6% SR) producing 17.7pts profit (+196.4% ROI).

Simply A Legend was sired by Midnight Legend whose offspring have been highly profitable to back in recent years. In fact, the 14.7% win strike rate form the 1100-plus runs by his offspring over the last couple has generated over 21% profits above stakes and his progeny have consistently performed well here at Worcester, especially in similar situations to today's contest.

Since 2009 in races of up to 2m 7f here at Worcester, runners sired by Midnight Legend have won 13 of 76 (17.1% SR) for 25.9pts profit (+34.1% ROI). From these 76 runners, geldings have a 6/34 (17.7% SR) record generating 13pts (+38.2% ROI) and 5yr olds have won 4 of 14 (28.6% SR).

We can further drill down in the 13/76 record of Midnight Legend's offspring at Worcester as follows:

12/1 odds cap : 12/38 (+31.6% SR) for 36.4pts (+95.8% ROI)
8/1 odds cap : 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 30.7pts (+113.7% ROI)
6/1 odds cap : 10/20 (50.0% SR) for 27.2pts (+136% ROI)

All of which points to another decent run by Simply A Legend, especially if the price contracts. The current best price of 11/2 BOG is borderline E/W territory and this is a competitive enough contest for a handicap debut, but I don't think that this horse is done improving just yet.

With that in mind and the old "fortune favours the brave" adage ringing in my ears, I'm going all in with a 1pt win bet on Simply A Legend at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, choose to take the E/W option should the price suit you and you can see all the available prices when you...

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Stat of the Day, 7th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2014

Silent Knight was very well backed yesterday, as our 10/1 E/W shot was sent off at 5/1 on course.

He ran well enough, I suppose, but tired and faded late on to finish two places and seven lengths outside the money in fifth place.

If you thought yesterday's racing was poor, today looks even worse, I'm afraid, but I might just have one for you in the...

1.50 Leicester:

Where I've just backed Renard Dirlande at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports and here's why...

1. He's trained by Venetia Williams, whose horses are in terrific form at the moment with 10 winners from 37 in the last fortnight and a place strike rate of over 43%.

2. Jockey Aidan Coleman has ridden 18 winners from 79 (22.8% SR) for over 25pts profit in the last month alone.

3. In 2012 & 2013, Miss Williams' record at Leicester is 6 winners from 19 with all six winners coming in chase contests, where the record reads 6 wins from 14 (42.9% SR) for 6.98pts (+49.9% ROI). of those 14 runners, there is a record of 6/12 for 8.98pts with chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter.

4. Her overall record in Leicester chases is 21/65 (32.3% SR) for 8.53pts (+13.1% ROI), and with the 5/1 odds cap imposed: 21/48 (43.75% SR) for 25.53pts (+53.2% ROI) profit.

5. Renard Dirlande loves the soft ground he'll face here today, on ground officially described as soft or heavy (or anywhere in between!) he has won twice and been placed four times from six efforts (412321) with a record of 2321 in chases.

All of which hopefully points to a successful 1pt win on Renard Dirlande at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports, but as always, you really should...

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Here is today's racecard!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 11/03/13

Stat of the Day: 11/03/13

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2013

A change of author over the weekend didn't, unfortunately, bring a change in fortune for SotD on the winners front. We did, however, secure another runner-up position yesterday as the line came just too soon for Matt's selection Crowning Jewel.

The horse seemed to be making up ground with every stride, eventually going down by just under a length and as Matt now prepares loads of interesting stuff for our Cheltenham coverage I'm back in the chair.

We're heading to the South West today for a Class 4 Handicap Hurdle. The trip is a testing 3 miles and a half furlong on soft ground for the eight runners set to contest the...

2.50 Taunton

Miss Venetia Williams' horses are going well again at present with over half of her thirty-five runners making the frame in the last fortnight. Eight of those 35 have been returned as winners giving her a healthy 23% strike in those 14 days.

She is certainly one of the UK's top trainers in general, but even more so at places like Taunton. When it comes to handicap hurdle events, she has the best recent record of all the trainers on display today. Since the turn of 2011, eight (44.44%) of her eighteen runners in Taunton handicap hurdles have been returned to  the winners' enclosure, providing her followers with excellent profits of 35.1pts (+195%) at SP.

In that same time frame, the course top jockey is Aidan Coleman with a record of seven winners from fifteen (46.67%) and level stakes profits of 28.1pts (+187%).

It obviously goes without saying that some of those results have been achieved when Aidan has ridden for Miss Williams and their record together is 7/12 (58.33%) for 31.1pts (+259%) profit: certainly a combination to keep an eye out for.

Miss Williams has just one hurdler at Taunton today and Mr Coleman rides just one hurdler today. Needless to say, it's the same horse, Rocky Bender.

Rocky Bender showed an improvement upon his novice form when finishing third to Qalinas (beaten by 1.75 lengths) on handicap debut at Lingfield (2m7f, heavy) last month and seemed to want a bit further that day. He reopposes Qalinas again today on better terms than last time and that should be enough to put that challenge aside.

The going shouldn't be a concern, since that third place came on heavy ground and he also already has an Irish point-to-point win under his belt over 3 miles on yielding ground. Rocky Bender seems to have plenty of scope for further potential and based on the records of the trainer and jockey here allied to the yard's recent form, I'm happy to place a 1pt win bet on Rocky Bender at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor (BoyleSports & Coral are also at 4's), but as always feel free to...

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Trainer Stats: 3rd May 2012

Jim Boyle Is Starting To Hit Form

Andy Newton gives you eight in-form trainers to look out for this week........... Read more

Sat TV Trends – 3rd March 2012

Nicholls Eyes Another Greatwood Gold Cup

Can Paul Nicholls land Newbury's Greatwood Gold Cup for a fifth time since 2006 this Saturday? - Andy Newton's got all the trends for the LIVE C4 races. Read more

Trainer Stats: Thurs 26th Jan 2012

Williams A Hot Name At Present

It‘s simple this week – just look out for a trainer with the surname ‘Williams’ - Maybe Serena, Robbie and Venus should take up a licence! Read more