Tag Archive for: Aidan O’Brien

2026 Irish Derby Trends

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The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is a Group One contest run over 1m4f at the Curragh racecourse.

In recent years, the race has been dominated by one trainer – Aidan O’Brien, who has landed the lucrative pot a staggering 17 times since 1997 and you can expect the Ballydoyle handler to be mob-handed once again.

He won the race 12 months ago with that season's Epsom Derby winner Lambourn (8/13) and before that with Los Angeles (2024) and Auguste Rodin (2023) - meaning he's won the last three.

We take a look back at past winners, plus give you all the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal, this year run on Sunday 28th June.

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2025 - LAMBOURN (8/13 fav)
2024 - LOS ANGELES (13/8)
2023 - AUGUSTE RODIN (4/11 fav)
2022 - WESTOVER (11/8 jfav)
2021 – HURRICANE LANE (4/1)
2020 – SANTIAGO (2/1 fav)
2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

22/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
20/23 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
19/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard
19/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
19/23 – Won a Group race before
19/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/23 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
17/23 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
15/23 – Failed to win their last race
15/23 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
14/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 17 times in total)
12/23 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (5 winners, Lambourn, Auguste Rodin, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
6/23 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/23 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore (last three)
2/23 – Ridden by William Buick
Jockey Ryan Moore won the Irish Derby for the first time in 2023 - but has won the last three now

 

20 horses have done the Epsom/Irish Derby double 

  • 2025 - Lambourn
  • 2023 - Auguste Rodin
  • 2016 - Harzand
  • 2014 - Australia
  • 2012 - Camelot
  • 2002 - High Chaparral
  • 2001 - Galileo
  • 2000 - Sinndar
  • 1993 - Commander In Chief
  • 1991 - Generous
  • 1988 - Kahyasi
  • 1986 - Shahrastani
  • 1981 - Shergar
  • 1979 - Troy
  • 1978 - Shirley Heights
  • 1977 - The Minstrel
  • 1975 - Grundy
  • 1970 - Nijinsky
  • 1964 - Santa Claus
  • 1907 - Orby

 

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Monday Musings: A Thrilling Ascot

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Considering how fit he looked the last time I saw him on one of his visits with the Aidan O’Brien team last year, it’s almost unfathomable that it’s 36 years (27 January 1990 to be exact) that Dean Gallagher outrode the top-class Graham McCourt to guide Willsford home first in a  staying chase  at Cheltenham for the Jenny Pitman stable, writes Tony Stafford.

Two runs and two races later, McCourt and Norton’s Coin gained their revenge over Jenny, this time as a 100/1 shot in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Sirrell Griffiths saddled the winner, with Toby Tobias and Mark Pitman a close runner-up ahead of the odds-on Desert Orchid in third.

Mark Pitman stepped into the Gold Cup top spot a year later with Garrison Savannah, beating off the top French horse The Fellow in a tight finish. After his riding career, Mark Pitman had some productive years as a trainer but it’s been a while since he held a licence.

Dean had a tricky time of it with Jenny. I’ve often wondered whether the presence of her son in the yard put a subconscious antipathy towards a man whose riding talent was clear to most as being superior to that of his colleague and rival.

At this point I should declare an interest. I knew Dean’s father Tom from the days he worked as a travelling head lad for Jim Bolger. I think he may already have left for a similar role with Dermot Weld when he called and said that Dean needed a change of scene and could I get him a job in England?

At that time, I was involved with several horses in the Rod Simpson yard and, as with Simon Whitworth whose solicitor father Eric contacted me with a similar request at around the same time, I suggested Rod. They both moved there but Dean was too heavy to ride exclusively on the flat and the switch to a jumps yard was sensible. I’ve since mulled whether an offer from Martin Pipe for Dean to join as his conditional rider would have been a better move, but Rod and a couple of his major owners persuaded him to stay. Also, one of the many changes in the Rules might have proved a problem too had he joined.

At Jenny’s, Dean shared the winners and to some extent the rides with Mark, but the relationship with the trainer was apparently never easy and one morning on the gallops, Dean snapped, untacked his horse and walked back to the yard with his saddle - but without the horse. If it’s not true, Dean, I have heard the story enough times to believe it is!

From there it wasn’t a career path strewn with roses but eventually he teamed up with owner Paul Green and for him rode the ex-French Hors La Loi III to victory in the 2002 Champion Hurdle, trained by James Fanshawe.

Later, he was mainly associated with the top French yard of Frederic Cottin riding four Grade 1s and many other Graded race winners across the Channel.

Since remarrying and settling down close to Ballydoyle, he is one of many other top former race riders – Adrian Maguire another – whose skills have been appreciated by Aidan. Here he was – I wasn’t as you know – in the entourage with his regular morning ride, Scandinavia, who won that epic Gold Cup duel on Thursday against the brave Trawlerman.

Mark Pitman was also there, as his former riding colleague Luke Harvey pointed out before a race later in the week, helping the stalls team load up the massive fields that were a frequent feature of many races. One horse was particularly explosive before its race and Mark was deposited on his backside right in front of the ITV cameras. Happily, he got up grinning. There’s something about racing. If it’s in your blood, it takes a lot to get rid of it!

If there was some excitement to be had at the despatch area, never can an Ascot crowd have been as thrilled by so many tight finishes. If you take the purely arbitrary notion of half a length – a margin that rightly could convince supporters of more than one horse in any race that they would be in with a chance right up to the line – an amazing 23 of the 35 races were settled by that amount or less.

Both on the Tuesday and Thursday, all seven races were so concluded and on Saturday only the opening Norfolk Stakes, won thrillingly by three-and-a-half lengths by the Clive Cox-trained and Rossa Ryan-ridden Orthodox, escaped the narrow margin parameters.

His win was my highlight of the week in talent terms. Five furlongs anywhere requires terrific speed, but on quick ground at Ascot with three Wesley Ward “rockets” setting the pace, each on its designated portion of Berkshire, it didn’t need much imagination to believe a come-from-behind horse would prevail.

I’ll never grow tired of watching Rossa bringing the son of Havana Grey through at the furlong pole to challenge two of the Wesley runners. He sluiced past them, quickly opening up a winning distance that was only exceeded by Ombudsman as he obliterated a rallying Minnie Hauk and Daryz by four lengths in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

The Norfolk is usually the best guide to the future sprinting hierarchy. Orthodox might have won by seven or eight lengths had he been able to tackle the extra furlong of a Coventry or, from this year, the Listed Windsor Castle, but Clive loves his sprinters and no doubt will have his plans.

The obvious route would be the Gimcrack and Middle Park over six. How about, though, taking on the much less defined older generations in the Nunthorpe and the Prix de l’Abbaye staying at the minimum?

Watching from home had its downside. Marmite Chapman, shoes (or were they spats?) providing an instant antipathy, is getting above even himself. The post-race demarcation was illustrated with Orthodox’s win, Rishi Persad telling Clive Cox he would require speaking to Chapman as if trainers’ opinions were above his pay grade. It fell to him only to speak to jockeys.

As well as the post-race duties, Matt now has free rein to roam the paddock and tell trainers before their races how the jockey should ride their horses. The irritating way he dogged William Haggas through the week made one wonder what reaction he would have got from William’s late father-in-law. “Something off!” would be my best bet.

I’m surprised that the highly talented Fozzy Stack, having endured a second sycophantic few seconds – it seemed longer – from Matt, to have as a parting shot when he was already walking away as, “You’re a good trainer!” must have been fuel enough for him to come back and deck the self-styled arbiter of all racing knowledge.

I didn’t hear it at the time, but after hearing advice from Chapman as how best to ride his horse, world-leading jockey James McDonald was heard – I’m told – to reply: “How many winners have you ridden, mate?”

But it’s an entertainment business, moved jollily and knowledgeably along by Ed Chamberlin, with loyal lieutenants Jason Weaver, Francesca Cumani and Adele Mulrennan, showing their respective abilities. There’s also, of course, the true expert, Ruby Walsh, what an asset! Some of it gets repetitive, not least the genuflecting to Kevin Blake. Then again, as Matt would presumably say, “How many Derby third placed finishers have you bought for 50 grand?”

Joseph O’Brien readily acknowledges Blake’s contribution to the planning that brought five Ascot wins and three second places, bettered only by two more wins for Aidan, seven representing a joint best for him over 30 years as he went past the career century during the meeting.

You only need to look on the list which reveals trainers that have had at least one third place to see some unexpected names among the non-winners. I wonder if Chapman, if he even finds time to trouble speaking to them, would he say, “Hi there, …, you’re a bad trainer!”?

- TS

Monday Musings: Nasty Business

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I’ll be missing the whole of Royal Ascot this week, so the freshly cleaned morning suit will remain on its hanger in the wardrobe, writes Tony Stafford. But the reason for it - ten days’ puppy watch while the beloved takes an educational language trip to Italy – brought home to me yet another reason why the UK is rapidly becoming the nastiest, most cynical and rapacious country in Europe

It’s long been annoying that Stansted airport – other airports are similarly greedy - charges a not inconsiderable amount just for dropping off a passenger at the Terminal. On Saturday, something since my last visit appeared to have changed.

I had never noticed directions to free drop-off – involves a bus – but this time I did. Anxious for a quick departure though, we made our way directly to the Terminal knowing a payment was needed. All my previous visits had involved paying by card at the end of the road after the Terminal but this time, all there is to see is a sign saying, “don’t forget to pay by tomorrow.”

At 3.30 am I jolted awake – “payment!” Trying to get on the right site, my bleary eyes were drawn to “airport-service.co.uk”. I went through the steps and was shocked to see an overall charge of £26, £10 for payment and £16 additional for “service”.  So, £26 for a one-minute slide through.

I knew I’d never paid even as much as £10 before and luckily, I was sufficiently awake to hesitate before pressing the button. I scanned the page again and noticed somewhere – “there are cheaper ways to pay this charge” or something of the like. I think it’s only when you get as close to paying as I had that this message appears.

“Airport-service.co.uk” was close enough to the top of the list that all drop-offees must visit - in second place behind the airport’s own payment site. The skilfully worded legend must draw many equally initially gullible people as me every day. Just while I was there, there was a non-stop succession of cars and taxis unloading. Nice work for the airport whether it was on their site or on that of the oh-so-helpful “Service” crowd, that no doubt passes on the tenner and pockets the rest.

There has been much discussion about the damaging effect of the internet on under-16s and the possible moves to ban them from using it over the past few days. How about a more general cleaning-up so that companies like Airport-service.co.uk are no longer allowed to fleece the public with such bare-faced misdirection?

So you’ve guessed. I’m annoyed to miss the five racing days of the year that I anticipate above all others – even more so than those two lovely spells at York with Mr and Mrs Cannon.

Those of you who can go will have a first-day feast in the clashes between the Charlie Appleby pair of Notable Speech and Opera Ballo and the William Haggas-trained More Thunder in the Queen Anne Stakes, and then the rematch between the 2,000 Guineas 1-2 Bow Echo (George Boughey) and Gstaad (Aidan O’Brien) in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The lure of Royal Ascot means that in both races there are talented horses waiting for a slip-up from the anticipated principals. The Queen Anne’s straight mile has been the source of a host of surprises, not least when Brook got the race in 1974 (I was there) upon the disqualification of the first three finishers. Docklands’ success at 12/1 in the race last year ought not to count as one of those.

Harry Eustace’s six-year-old has never been out of the first four in seven runs on the track and that sole fourth place was close up and barely a length behind the 100/1 winner Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day over the course and distance last October. Since then, he has been clocking up the air miles and annexing foreign currency with a series of good runs in the Far East, either side of an easy win at Doncaster in March.

Again, though, has he the resources to withstand the sort of acceleration that the 2024 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech can unleash? The latest version of that came with a devastating burst to win a very competitive renewal of the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury a month ago.

Charlie can back him up with the seven-time-winning (from nine) Opera Ballo, whose demolition of Field Of Gold in the bet365 Mile at Sandown elevated him into an elite category.

Then there’s More Thunder, from the William Haggas team and the one singled out by Tom Marquand as the pick of his stables’ riches over the week. Haggas comes into the week in form, again with some spectacular results from his handicappers (really?) over the past few days.

I read an article quoting my old pal Kieran Fallon suggesting that maybe his son Cieren (different spelling - and accent!) could make a challenge for the jockeys’ title with Oisin this year. If he keeps getting on the right Haggas ones – he did on Saturday at York while Tom Marquand was messing around at Sandown, and had the pleasant task of a steering job, even after repeated blockages on his way through on Extremely Zain in a modestly-endowed for the day seven-furlong handicap.

Runing off 93 in a 0-95 handicap after two wins from two, Extremely Zain was the proverbial Group horse running in a handicap, except he was more probably a Group 1 horse dancing though a handicap. I don’t now how the handicapper was expected to put a figure on his initial wide-margin debut win and then narrow second victory in a Newbury novice.

He must have thought he was safe with 93. One hundred and three wouldn’t have made much difference. The much more valuable six-furlong sprint will seem – when it appears on the screen as a result or on paper if anyone still reads form in that way – much more closely-fought.

The truth is that Zac Lloyd, son of English-born but top Australian jockey Jeff, had everything well under control in that big field. Thunder Call was on 85. He’s another almost sure to get to three figures with a couple of well-chosen and remunerative stopping points along the way.

The rematch between Bow Echo and Gstaad will be the main item for many. At Newmarket, Bow Echo comfortably had the measure of Gstaad while both had the rest of the Classic field miles behind. Gstaad went on to win in Ireland but, with Bow Echo enjoying a steady build-up under Boughey’s single-minded approach, it’s hard to see how this unbeaten colt could be relinquishing his position at the top of the miling tree. I can’t wait to see him get his hands (hooves) on the older bunch.

In the far-off olden days, they would have had a runoff over four miles to decide things later in the day.

Talking of history, one of my favourite races down the years has been the Ascot Stakes. This year, the 20 runners include one from France, six from England and 13 from Ireland, including seven from Oaks-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. Where have our staying handicappers gone?

James Owen does run one and I’m sure he wishes the lower-rated Carlton could have been high enough to get in; maybe he would have without the Irish logjam. He’ll probably run on Saturday in the level weights and slightly longer Queen Alexandra. The way he finished in the Chester Plate suggests he’ll stay the trip. Get your topper and tails ready, Mick!

I often sound off about handicappers, but in going for one of the non-Joseph Irish contingent, I admit the task in assessing a horse with one win on debut over 1m4f, a third place over 1m6f behind fellow Stakes entry Kizlyar (O’Brien), and then, from his mark of 91 from two outings, a smooth win last time over one mile, is a tricky one!

Now trainer Henry De Bromhead is asking his five-year-old Tim Toe to travel two and a half times as far. Champion Hurdles are one thing, but Henry also loves to go for the posh pots on the flat and this would be a splendid addition to his lengthy jumps honours board.

- TS

Monday Musings: Money Back!

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How many races do you think have been started from stalls in the UK since the obscure rule change which caused such havoc in the Epsom betting ring after Christmas Day won the Betfred Derby on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford.

I would suggest thousands, but that woke alteration allowed the Epsom stewards to declare never-in-the-hunt Betfred Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner for getting his leg over (rather stuck in) the stalls. No doubt he’ll be getting his leg over in the proscribed way later in life. Yes, this weekend we saw the first running of the Woke Derby.

Imperfect starts have always been a part of racing. While on this very public occasion the finicky stewards decided to intervene after the fact, multiple examples of slow starts historically have been ignored.

Often on the flat, starters let the fields go, not noticing when one or more horses might be in various states of discomfort in the stalls, their jockeys imploring “wait sir, wait!” Either they do or they don’t, tough! How many times have we seen hoods coming off too late? What an unseemly dish to set before the King!

Then while jumping starts at the workaday meetings are allowed to go off where the jockeys want to be placed, at the big very public and most important meetings like Cheltenham and Aintree, again fussy officialdom often ruins the race. Multiple false starts and unsatisfactory standing still departures immediately end many horses’ chances before they go a yard.

Ahead of Saturday’s controversy, Christmas Day continued the theme that you can never ignore Aidan O’Brien’s “other runners” in the Derby. It proved a truism once more, the 7/1 winner attracting far more interest in the market than the favourite and even trumping presumed second choice Pierre Bonnard, a laboured seventh under Christophe Soumillon.

The key to finding the Derby winner is 1) with now ten of the last 15 winners (67%) of the race, it must be an Aidan horse. 2) if you ignore Ryan Moore who now has missed out on five of the last seven Coolmore winners, find a jockey that’s never got near winning it before, often one that’s never ridden in the race!

Step up Ronan Whelan. Like so many, Aidan included, Whelan spent plenty of time in his younger days with Jim Bolger. This is his second year as back up to Moore and super stand-in Wayne Lordan, and Epsom on Saturday was his ultimate reward.

It happened for Lordan with Lambourn last year and Lordan it was on the fourth O’Brien runner Action, who set the pace on Saturday with Christmas Day at his elbow. The other two Coolmore runners were held behind the nice even pace that Lordan excels at.

Into the straight it wasn’t long before Christmas Day took the lead, edging into the middle of the rain-softened ground and drawing away much as Lambourn and that other surprise O’Brien winner of the modern era, Serpentine, did in 2020. The difference this time was the ground. It had completely obliterated Calandagan in the £1 million Coolmore Coronation Cup earlier, won in spectacular fashion by George Scott’s Bay City Roller, and several in the Derby field were similarly inconvenienced.

Not Christmas Day though. His sire Camelot was an 8/13 shot when winning the race in 2012, the first of that run of ten in 15, with Joseph O’Brien in the saddle. Having beaten French Fifteen at Newmarket, it just needed the St Leger for him to emulate Nijinsky 42 years earlier. Encke has his name on the historical record but nobody believes him the moral winner.

With 14 runners contesting the prizes which went down from £1 million for the winner to £20k for tenth, there wasn’t much room for horses’ being eased, apart that was for the toiling Benvenuto Cellini who passed the post miles behind all bar last home Poker.

Though nothing ever seemed likely to catch the winner, with Maltese Cross, Joseph’s James J Braddock, and Bay Of Brilliance the next three home, I enjoyed seeing Julie Wood’s colours flashing home in fifth. Alderman earned his owner £80k, not bad for a horse rated only 83. Saturday’s 100/1 shot is in for a big hike tomorrow, but the thrill that the Richard Hannon colt gave her a day or so after her birthday is irreplaceable.

Very few owners stick as much to their principles and methods as Julie. While others wait until the yearling sales. Julie always buys foals on her own judgment. This one, a son of Study Of Man, cost 42,000gns at the foal sale in 2023 and has been well worth the wait. Many observers feel the lower limit of 80 for horses qualifying to run in the Derby should be raised. Mrs Wood, Hannon and Alderman are eloquent advocates of why it is fine as it is.

Sixth was another outsider, the Faye Bramey-trained Rebel Rocker, a 66/1 shot, although at 99, he was rated a full 16lb higher than the horse that ran past him in the closing stages. Faye has worked closely for a long time with A P McCoy and she is sure to have more success with Jennifer Dorey’s home bred.

Memories in horse racing are very short and I hadn’t remembered that Christmas Day started the 11/4 favourite for what many regard as the prime Derby trial, the Dante Stakes at York last month. He was comfortably put in his place in third by Item and, for a long time, that Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned colt was the biggest market threat to Saturday's favourite, winner of the Chester Vase as his trial.

But the ground was clearly a worry for Item as he drifted out to 11/2 before finishing a remote ninth. Christmas Day moved the other way in the market. Priced at 14/1 in the Racing Post forecast in the morning he started at half those odds and with the 25p in the pound deduction bookmakers could (although some did not) apply, that equates to nearer 5/1.

Camelot joins Galileo (four wins) and Australia, with Lambourn last year, as O’Brien Derby winners that then sired winners of the Classic. We always wondered which of the array of new stallions that would fill that area of Galileo’s brilliance. Camelot seems the most likely.

Friday’s Oaks was another O’Brien tour-de-force, but in this case it was son Joseph and the Frankel filly Thundering On that exploded past and away from the Gosdens’ well-supported Legacy Link by almost four lengths.

Until Thundering On appeared on the scene, victory seemed assured for Legacy Link as that Dubawi filly had taken it up from Sugar Island, least fancied of the three Aidan O’Brien runners at 25/1 and another daughter of Dubawi. I watched at close hand as Aidan saddled his three Oaks contenders in the paddock beforehand and had to smile when the first girth tried on the strapping Sugar Island failed to go around her by a good few inches. She is some physical specimen!

She looks one that will take her races going forward even though Thundering On was ten lengths ahead of her by the line. Sadly, my role as chief cheerleader fell flat. The boss’s 100/1 bet on favourite Amelia Earhart never looked like materialising. There’s aways next year, Matt!

If you were a trainer with a Derby (Motivator) and Oaks winner (Sariska) to your name, where would you prefer to have been on Saturday? Michael Bell found himself watching maybe 45 minutes of cricket al Lord’s on an awful day which not only spoilt the Test match for spectators on the worst pitch ever at the Headquarters of cricket, but also ruined hopes of a big attendance on the imaginatively improved Hill at Epsom.

At least Michael’s viewing of the Derby wasn’t interrupted, neither was his winner of a £51k race, £25k to the winner, that Blues And Royals won with a last-stride dip of the head at Musselburgh. Blues And Royals is in triple ownership, but I was delighted that the white colours, dark blue cap of Jonathan Barnett passed the line in front.

That’s three nice wins so far. Could he sneak into the Britannia, probably not, but that sort of win keeps owners happy. At least I had something to cheer on Saturday!

- TS

Epsom Oaks Trends 2026

/in /by

Run over 1m4f the Epsom Oaks is the third of the five English Classics to be run each season and is for 3 year-old fillies.

Did you know? Trainers John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien have won 11 of the last 12 runnings between them and O'Brien has 11 total wins (and counting). 

Here at GeeGeez we take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends and trainer stats ahead of the 2026 Epsom race – this year run on Friday 5th June 2026 at Epsom racecourse.

Recent Epsom Oaks Winners

2025 - Minnie Hauk (9/2)
2024 - Ezeliya (13/2)
2023 - Soul Sister (11/4)
2022 - Tuesday (13/2)
2021  - Snowfall (11/2)
2020 – Love (11/10 fav)
2019 – Anapurna (8/1)
2018 – Forever Together (7/1)
2017 - Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
2015 – Qualify (50/1)
2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
2013 – Talent (20/1)
2012 - Was (20/1)
2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1)
2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)
2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav)
2008 – Look Here (33/1)
2007 – Light Shift (13/2)
2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav)
2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav)
2004 – Ouija Board (7/2)
2003 – Casual Look (10/1)
2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)

Epsom Oaks Betting Trends

24/24 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
22/24 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
19/24 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
16/24 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
16/24 – Favourites that were placed
15/24 – Won last time out
10/24 – Irish-trained winners
9/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 total)
6/24 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
6/24 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
5/24 – Returned a double-figure price
5/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 11)
2/24 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/24 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/24 – Had run at the course before
8 of the last 19 favourites were unplaced
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
O’Brien and Gosden have won 11 of the last 12 runnings between them
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10/1
8 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 9 of the last 24 runnings and won again last year (Minnie Hauk)

 

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Monday Musings: Now I’ve Seen Everything

/in /by

Finally, after more than 70 years of watching horse racing, I can honestly say I’ve seen everything, writes Tony Stafford.

We’ve been used to witnessing Aidan O’Brien horses filling the first three positions in Classic races maybe not that frequently. It happens enough not to be a total surprise when it does. Never, though, I venture, have we seen anything to match the stage management that led to yesterday’s clean sweep in the Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) at Chantilly.

Aidan’s trio finished the right way round in the end as favourite Constitution River, yes over there rather than at Epsom on Saturday in the “real” Derby, under a sublime Ryan Moore, edged out Hawk Mountain and Christophe Soumillon, with outsider Montreal, on their heels in third under an inspired ride from the front by reliable number two Wayne Lordan.

I wonder how many of the Ballydoyle entourage bothered or even thought to risk a little on the Tricast on the Pari-Mutuel. It paid €167.55 for a €1 stake!

Sixteen horses turned out for this 10.5 furlongs with Ryan drawn widest bar-one in 15, a position reckoned by many experts impossible from which to win. Those experts, including the extremely experienced Sky Sports Racing team on scene, reckoned Ryan would have to “drop in” to overcome the disadvantageous position.

Instead, he “dropped out” widest of all in clear isolation in the early running as Lordan from the middle aimed and effected a fast break to get to the inside. Soumillon was soon at the head of the big group up the middle, and you could understand the enormity of the favourite’s task as Constitution River was needing plenty of encouragement throughout the entire race as he was so wide as the turns unfolded.

By the time they had straightened for home, the Ballydoyle trio had worked their way into the podium places as Karl Burke’s Hankelow, echoing his prominent role in the French 2,000 Guineas, started to flag. He had finished a close third over the mile at Longchamp behind St James’s Palace-bound Rayif and yesterday’s rival Komorebi.

The stock of that race took a dive yesterday, Komorebi finishing only tenth and Burke’s horse fading away to 13th.

Winding up for the final thrust a furlong from home, the three Coolmore colts were in a line. If anything, you were wondering, certainly I was, whether Montreal was going to spring the shock. Hawk Mountain, winner of last year’s Futurity at Doncaster where he beat next Saturday’s Epsom race favourite Benvenuto Cellini, was also fully extended, but Ryan was the one with the most resources at his disposal.

It wasn’t until the last 75 yards that the result was etched on the trophy with Michael Tabor’s blue edging out Derrick Smith’s purple, Sue Magnier’s second pink silks gracing the third home. That the final margin had stretched to threequarters of a length at the line suggested strongly that Constitution River would have had a favourite’s chance over another furlong and a half at Epsom had he been sent there.

For years, we’ve had the supreme hurdler turned nine-year-old embryo flat performer Constitution Hill as the most popular racehorse. Maybe Constitution River will do enough in his career to give pause for thought. The world as they say, is his – you know what.

And as if the O’Brien family didn’t have enough to celebrate yesterday, out of the pack into fourth came A Boy Named Susie. His trainer? None other than Aidan and Anne-Marie O’Brien’s younger son Donnacha and owned by his (Donnacha’s) sister Ana, no mean jockey herself until injury curtailed her career.

Yesterday’s winner and runner-up were among the 22 left in the Betfred Derby at the latest stage. The already humbled French – don’t fret mes chers, the English team were similarly blown away – do not have a single horse standing in the Classic unless connections wish to put up the requisite supplementary fee of £90,000 by noon today.

To recoup that, your horse would have to finish in the first four of the £1 million to the winner, and £2 million total, contest. Prizes for the Betfred Derby dribble down to tenth, almost in the way of the sales races for two-year-olds, but from a fittingly more handsome starting point.

The best that the home team could muster yesterday was the 37 grand picked up by fifth-home Alam. Aidan will be credited with £1.2 million in the French trainers’ prizemoney list or rather €1.37 million and the winner’s €857k (or if you prefer £745,000) will swell by another €282k as he is French-bred, while his stablemates are not. I wondered why they decided to go there!

Ana O’Brien’s 74 grand is likely to be swamped by what she can expect to field in offers for her colt from the ever-ravenous Australian stables who have so much money to spend.

As my old pal Lew Day told me the other week, he retained a half-share in his horse Raheen House when he went to race in Australia, there were maybe a hundred joint-owners sharing the other half, a worthwhile punt if you have the prizemoney to offer as they do.

I guess it’s possible there might be a supplementary entry or two, although whether anyone will be daring enough after this O’Brien 1-2-3 is debatable.

Suppose the bare 20 all stay in, that would mean ten for the home team including smart pair Item (Andrew Balding) and Maltese Cross (William Haggas) and again ten from Ireland, eight from Aidan and two trained by his elder son Joseph, including James J Braddock which got up late to beat Aidan’s Pierre Bonnard in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time.

James J Braddock already has part Australian ownership, a group having acquired a share from noted Irish media expert (and Joseph advisor) Kevin Blake. Joseph bought the son of Zarak as a yearling for 40,000gns. His stud fee in France this year was €80k, so some bargain, never mind what he has already collected for his now part-owner. A share of the £1 million would still do nicely.

Benvenuto Cellini is now 2/1 best to make it 12 Derby wins for O’Brien and 13 for Michael Tabor. Item is only 4/1 now after that smooth Dante win at York, with Pierre Bonnard and Lingfield trial winner Maltese Cross coming next.

With the money after the winner standing at £400k; £200k; £130k; £80k; £50k; £35k; £30k; £25k and £20k, I wonder if we will see a Michael Dickinson-type domination on Saturday? Could the Famous Five of the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup be usurped by a Superb Six, a Superlative Seven of even an Extraordinary Eight? Probably not, and for the home trainers with hopes of winning the most important prize in the calendar, let’s hope it doesn’t happen.

I’m sure that Saturday’s revelation of the 16 six-day acceptors (four supplementary) for Friday’s Oaks at Epsom brought the chill of dread to the Editor with Precise poised to line up with/against Amelia Earhart depending on your point of view.

Does the stretching-out to 1m4f for the first time of an ultra-impressive Guineas-winning filly trump the emphatic Cheshire Oaks-winning form at just a half-furlong or so short of the Classic trip of her stablemate?

It might not even be a case of whether Ryan Moore or Wayne Lordan rides which of the pair. Lordan rode True Love to win the 1,000 Guineas as Moore on Precise was a sleepy seventh. At the Curragh, a rejuvenated, if you can call it that after one run off a setback, Precise with Lordan up, slaughtered her old rival, now under Ryan, with the finishing speed of a true champion.

He’s done it successfully before, but will Aidan want to test his belief that Precise will stay another four furlongs so soon after the Curragh against the certainty of knowing she would be the one to beat if turning up for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot? Nervy times – as I said, depending on your point of view.

What yesterday in Chantilly told us, is that even after all this time, Aidan O’Brien is getting better every year in his role as custodian of the Coolmore breeding operation. I’ll never again subscribe to the view that anything he attempts is unlikely to happen.

- TS

Monday Musings: Perfectly Precise

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You can routinely analyse form as pounds for lengths, but as yesterday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas proved, expecting past form to be repeated is not always as Precise as experts might think it to be, writes Tony Stafford.

On a weekend where Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore had previously got everything right in tandem, including Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas with Gstaad, along came Precise to make a monkey of Coolmore’s number one for the second time in less than a month.

Precise, a filly Ryan had never previously ridden owing to last autumn’s lengthy injury spell, was his mount as the 9/5 favourite in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She finished only seventh as stable-companion True Love, for one race at least, dispelled any doubts about her stamina for a Classic mile.

True Love, as did Precise, had experience at the top level on her side but also proven fitness with a run this year. Ryan instead partnered the filly that O’Brien had referred to in the most glowing of terms as she went through the grades last autumn. Precise’s preparation for the Rowley Mile had been interrupted this spring, but despite this, confidence in her remained strong.

The Coolmore team never shrinks from giving a back-up to their number one contender in the big races and now at the Curragh Precise was the perceived number two. The reasoning is, if one can’t win it, maybe the other one can. As somebody very wise used to say, it’s not what you lose, it’s what you win, and Coolmore has not been for many years over-protective of its top horses.

The race split into two groups, and Ryan on the far side on True Love sat close to Godolphin’s Abashiri, who had been ahead of Precise in fifth at Newmarket. When Moore asked for her effort, she smoothly got to William Buick’s mount but took a while to settle the issue. Then, from the back of the stands-side sextet, Wayne Lordan, as on True Love at Newmarket, upset the expected Ballydoyle order.

Precise was regarded by O’Brien last year as one of the best juvenile fillies he had ever trained. It must be a source of great pride that she is a product of his family’s Whisperview Trading Ltd breeding operation. The speed she showed here to cut back the front two in half a furlong and then power two-and-a half lengths clear was truly exhilarating. Aidan’s estimate of her ability and potential clearly wasn’t misguided.

At Newmarket, many were surprised that True Love, who with the precocity of being a five-furlong Queen Mary Royal Ascot winner hardly had the profile of a Guineas filly, lasted as well up the hill at HQ as she did. Here, it was Precise with extravagant acceleration that quickly made up the ground and burst clear. Now they have two more Classic winning fillies to grace their pedigrees for the coming years.

I know one person who will now be quaking in his boots as he awaits news of which of the Oaks, French Oaks or the Coronation Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot will be the next option for Precise. How about the Oaks followed by the Coronation? And Aidan still has the facile French 1,000 winner Diamond Necklace to sort out a programme for. Most people seem to think it will be back to France for the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). You can’t make it up, as a pal of mine was saying at Yarmouth the other night.

He (no, not my friend at Yarmouth) has a decent bet at 100/1 about the existing Oaks favourite Amelia Earhart, but he must be in trepidation whether the Cheshire Oaks winner will have to contend with Precise. It will not be unprecedented for a dyed in the wool mile and a half filly to be usurped at Epsom by a speedier animal, even though you must have stayed if you win an Oaks - or a Derby for that matter. After all, they thought City Of Troy wouldn’t stay, but class and acceleration were his weapons.

The generations of Galileo colts and fillies have finally gone while probably his most potent successor as a stallion of potential champions, Wootton Bassett, is also no longer with us. His progeny will be available for a year or two more.

Market moves are always instructive at this time of year and the flow of money that has brought Wootton Bassett’s son Constitution River to the head of the Derby betting at 5/2, replacing his fellow Chester winner (Vase) Benvenuto Cellini at the head of some books has to be significant. Oath (Henry Cecil) in 1999 and Kris Kin, Michael Stoute, four years later, were the most recent Dee Stakes winners that went on to Epsom glory.

Constitution River had a concrete boost to what had seemed a bloodless seven-length margin in the ten-furlong test when the third horse home, Golden Story, won Saturday’s Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood for Karl Burke.

I know the ground can be soft at Chester, but it was still no mean feat on quick going for Constitution River to record comfortably the fastest-ever time for the race since its reduction to the present distance in the 1970s. Considering the strength of either homebreds from Coolmore with its colossal stock of top-class mares, or such as Whisperview Trading and other close, long-standing associates, it has become an unequal task for stables with the odd top class horse to stave off their power.

It is something of a surprise, then, that Constitution River comes from a French nursery and M V Magnier was able to buy him at €400k. It’s not that they are merely clever with producing and improving stallions – they also know how to work the sales.

Aidan’s love for Chester – he’s won the Vase 12 times and the Dee Stakes 13, including eight of the last nine – is well documented, and I’ve enjoyed seeing quite a few of them at close hand apart from missing the last two or three.

The winners haven’t always gone on to be stars at the top end of racing, but the 2024 scorer Capulet did take part in quite a momentous race in Sha Tin yesterday. Romantic Warrior, the eight-year-old who vies with sprinter Ka Ying Rising as the favourite horse in Hong Kong even though his younger rival deservedly had the edge on ratings as the top international horse of 2025, won the 24th race of his 31-run career.

It took him a long time to win the 1m4f turf event, James McDonald having to make up ground on two leaders turning for home. One of these, the former Capulet, now named Romantic Thor in Hong Kong, finished fourth as Romantic Warrior took his world leading career earnings beyond £28 million.

What Aidan didn’t win over the two days at the Curragh, sons Joseph and Donnacha filled in with three victories between them. Last month Donnacha took the four-year-old sprinter Comanche Brave on a speculative trip to Hong Kong to take on Ka Ying Rising. He finished fifth, eight lengths behind the home champion, a project which brought a handsome £80k reward for his first run of the year.

To show just how adaptable a stallion Wootton Bassett is, he is the sire of Comanche Brave, now the easy winner of the Group 3 Greenlands Stakes over six furlongs on Saturday. Good stallions get winners at all distances, subject to the quality of the mares. While it’s never a Precise rule of breeding, Coolmore seems always to have the bases covered. We’ll see just how well, when they collect the Derby and Oaks double. Mr Editor, I hope Precise stays away!

- TS

Irish 1000 Guineas Trends 2026

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Staged at The Curragh racecourse the Irish 1,000 Guineas is a Group One class race for 3 year-olds fillies. Run over 1m the contest normally takes place each year in May and was first run in 1921.

Horses that contested the English 1,000 Guineas often go onto run in this race, while winners of the Irish 1,000 Guineas tend head to Royal Ascot for the Coronation Stakes.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last 8 runnings, while in total, O’Brien has won the race a staggering 10 times. Veteran handler Dermot Weld has also won the race 6 times in total and in two of the last four - both times with jockey Chris Hayes riding.

But Aidan O'Brien landed the last running in 2025 with Lake Victoria - giving him an eleventh success in the race.

We take a look back at past winners, plus have all the key trends ahead of the 2026 Irish 1,000 Guineas – run on Sunday 24th May 2026.

Recent Irish 1,000 Guineas Winners

2025 - LAKE VICTORIA (10/11 fav)
2024 - FALLEN ANGEL (11/4 fav)
2023 - TAHIYRA (2/5 fav)
2022 - HOMELESS SONGS (11/2)
2021 - EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (14/1)
2020 – PEACEFUL (3/1)
2019 – HERMOSA (5/2 fav)
2018 – ALPHA CENTAURI (12/1)
2017 – WINTER (9/1)
2016 – JET SETTING (9/1)
2015 – PLEASCACH (11/2)
2014 – MARVELLOUS (10/1)
2013 – JUST THE JUDGE (2/1 fav)
2012 – SAMITAR (12/1)

Irish 1,000 Guineas Betting Trends and Stats

13/14 - Irish bred horses
13/14 - Had at least 3 previous runs
13/14 - Had won over at least 7f before
11/14 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/14 - Favourites placed in the top 3
10/14 - Had won between 1-2 times
10/14 - Ran between 4-8 times before
9/14 - Drawn between stalls 6-11 (inc)
8/14 - Hadn’t run at the Curragh before
8/14 - Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/14 - Ran in the English 1000 Guineas last time (2 winners: Winter (2017) and Hermosa (2019))
6/14 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
6/14 - Winning favourites
4/14 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 - Ridden by Chris Hayes  (2 of last 4)
2/14 - Trained by Dermot Weld (2 of last 4 and 6 wins in total)
8 of the last 13 winners were placed 1st or 2nd last time out (4 won)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 6/1

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2025 Futurity Trophy Stakes Trends

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The Futurity Trophy Stakes is staged each year at Doncaster racecourse and is for 2 year-olds only.

The Group One race is run over a distance of 1m and is an excellent guide and trial to the following year’s Classics, in particular the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby - backed up in recent years with High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized, Camelot and, most-recently, Auguste Rodin all winning the William Hill Futurity Trophy before going onto take the Epsom Derby the next season.

While recent winners – Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko, who the race is named after this year - went onto land the 2,000 Guineas the following season.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race a remarkable 11 times, including in 2022 with Auguste Rodin, who went onto win the Epsom Derby. Ryan Moore is also another jockey making the race his own - with 3 wins since 2017.

Lester Piggott and Pat Eddery remain the winning-most jockeys with 5 wins each.

Here at GeeGeez we take a look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal - run on Saturday 25th October.

Futurity Trophy Winners

2024 - Hotazhell (11/1)
2023 - Aincient Wisdom (5/4 fav)
2022 - Auguste Rodin (9/4 fav)
2021 – Luxembourg (4/6 fav)
2020 - Mac Swiney (12/1)
2019 – Kameko (11/2)
2018 – Magna Grecia (2/1 fav)
2017 – Saxon Warrior (13/8 fav)
2016 – Rivet (11/4)
2015 – Marcel (33/1)
2014 – Elm Park (13/8 fav)
2013 – Kingston Hill (7/2 fav)
2012 – Kingsbarns (15/8 fav)
2011 – Camelot (10/11 fav)
2010 – Casamento (2/1 fav)
2009 – St Nicholas Abbey (13/8 fav)
2008 – Crowded House (7/1)
2007 – Ibn Khaldun (11/4 fav)
2006 – Authorized (25/1)
2005 – Palace Episode (20/1)
2004 – Motivator (6/4 fav)
2003 – American Post (5/6 fav)
2002 – Brian Boru (11/8 fav)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

Futurity Trophy Betting Trends

20/23 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
20/23 – Placed favourites
19/23 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
19/23 - Foaled in February or later
19/23 – Finished in the top two last time out
18/23 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
17/23 – Had raced at least twice previously
15/23 – Winning favourites
15/23 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
15/23 – Won their last race
14/23 – Foaled in either Feb or March
14/23 – Had won over a mile in the past
11/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
4/23 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 11)
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
Trainer John Gosden have NEVER won this race
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 4-7
6 of the last 10 winners from stalls 4, 6 or 7 (2 each)
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022
The average SP in the last 23 runnings is 13/2

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Monday Musings: A Five and a Six Away from Ascot

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On a day when Ascot’s Champions Day supplied winners at 200/1 and 100/1 for home stables, two of Ireland’s biggest yards were at it elsewhere, writes Tony Stafford. It came as little surprise when Aidan O’Brien had the first five and then mercifully allowed someone else to get on the scoresheet before making it six on the day back home at Leopardstown.

With several multiple opportunities through the card, it wasn’t easy to identify which would be the better, notably in the fifth, the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes. This went to 13/8 second-best Dorset in the Derrick Smith silks, after getting first run on the Michael Tabor colours on 6/4 favourite Daytona, clear of the rest and much to the mirth of the two gentlemen concerned back at Ascot.

I doubt whether even they or their trainer would have been able to predict all six beforehand. If they had, it was around a 1,150/1 six-timer, eclipsing the 200/1 longest-ever Group 1 winning starting price recorded by the Richard Fahey-trained Powerful Glory back at Ascot. His victory in the Qipco Champion Sprint owed much to a Jamie Spencer masterclass amid the whoops and disbelieving on the straight course at Ascot where his age-old skills never dim.

Two races later I did venture into the paddock, when many of the connections stay to view their race on the big screen, to watch the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Horse racing can bring emotion far removed from everyday life and I swear I saw more than one very emotional woman and at least half a dozen men unashamedly crying as Charlie Hills’ Cicero’s Gift returned to unsaddle.

It was a day of days for owners Rosehill Racing and even jockey Jason Watson was wiping away a tear or two as he brought the unconsidered five-year-old back having edged out the big guns. Behind, a revived The Lion In Winter led home Alakazi and Docklands, with the disappointing pair Field Of Gold and Rosallion next home.

No doubt emotion in the entire Hills family was the order of the day just short of four months after Charlie’s father Barry, such a genius of a trainer, died at the age of 88. I snatched a few words with Barry’s widow and Charlie’s mum Penny earlier in the day. Afterwards I recalled one day driving down Fulham Palace Road in West London a decade or more prior, passing Charing Cross Hospital where Barry was being treated for cancer and seeing Penny on her way out having visited him, as she did every day during his illnesses.

She looked great on Saturday and I’m sure she felt that her son, often under-valued by ultra-critical people in racing – not always the kindest of arenas – had gone a long way to silencing his critics. After all, hadn’t he also won the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes at Keeneland two weeks earlier with the nine-year-old Khaadem, partnered by Frankie Dettori? That Fitri Hay-owned sprinter had won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee at Royal Ascot both in 2023 and last year. You don’t keep top-class horses going that long into a career without having a real talent for the job.

Frankie no doubt would have been keeping an eye on matters at Ascot on the 29th anniversary of his unique seven-race through-the-card feat. I saw Gary Wiltshire at Chelmsford on Thursday night and he’s still dining out on how he lost £2 million laying the last winner of that septet. I won’t ever forget it either, having to write an extra chapter for the book Year in The Life Of Frankie Dettori, ready to go as it was then.

Gary’s latest book detailing those days is a steady seller, and I hope Victor Thompson’s Eighty Years in the Fast Lane, also published by Weatherbys will get a nice response. I helped Victor and his partner Gina Coulson put it together, and the final piece in the puzzle came with Nick Luck’s stylish and heart-warming foreword last week. Publication should be at the end of this month.

If ever I write another book of my own, the title ought to be “I digress” (!), because almost the most unlikely eventuality of all those remarkable Saturday feats was occurring over in the US at Far Hills racecourse in New Jersey.

Gordon Elliott might have been bullied almost into submission in the top races over the years by Willie Mullins, but he certainly knows how to pick his spots. He sent a team of horses to the US’s biggest day of jump racing in both prestige and money terms on Saturday and won five, including their Champion Hurdle and Grand National.

Jack Kennedy, happily recovered from his latest injury, rode four of them, giving way to Danny Gilligan on Coutach in the £72k to the winner Champion Hurdle. Pride of place goes to the last of the quintet, Zanahiyr, an Aga Khan-bred son of Nathaniel, Enable’s sire. Nathaniel, at the age of 17, has been making enough of a revival to stand at an increased £20k at Newsells Park Stud. Graham Smith-Bernal, Newsells’ owner, was still bubbling over another sales triumph (3.6 million gns) even though only second of the pile at Tattersalls Book 1 for a son of Frankel, sold of course to Amo Racing.

Zanahiyr collected £120k for his neck success over fellow Irishman, the Gavin Cromwell-trained Ballysax Hank. He’s another versatile type having won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen (a race won the previous year by geegeez syndicate horse, Sure Touch, which also followed up there this week) and collected a 1m6f flat race on home turf before his trip to New Jersey.

Cromwell had fulfilled a long ambition when sending out Stumptown, a regular in good handicap chases, to win the Velka Pardubicka over the fearsome obstacles at Pardubice, Czech Republic, the previous weekend.

In all, Elliott’s five pulled in a total of £300,000. It’s to his credit that he’s come through the dark days and the ban that followed that infamous photo with ever more energy and operational dexterity.

Judged on recent events Elliott, Cromwell and Joseph O’Brien will be ever more visible going for the top UK prizes this winter when the home defence, with one or two exceptions, might struggle to withstand them – never forgetting the imperious Willie Mullins.

I hear a whisper that the champ already has earmarked the horses he intends to line up for the five Grade 1 races that were the fixture for so many years for the opening day at Cheltenham’s Festival meeting next March. One of the stable’s most ardent followers was bemoaning the rearrangement of the four-day programme that as he says dilutes the top races through the week. Maybe it’s a response by bookmakers sick of having their pants down and bottoms smacked every year by Wearisome Willie!

I digressed and did so again. What a day. We saw a proper middle-distance champion in the French gelding Calandagan, too speedy for the rest and ridden with great tactical awareness by Mickael Barzalona, two weeks on from his Arc de Triomphe win on Daryz. An early test of that form was Kalpana’s easy repeat win in Saturday’s Champion Filly and Mare race, soon clear in the straight and never tested in repelling a late thrust from Estrange. That striking grey ran a blinder considering the unsuitably fast ground.

John Gosden seemed more pleased to have ended the three-race tussle with Delacroix (who finished fourth) on the credit side, two-to-one, than worry about Osbudsman’s being beaten by the French raider who, like Daryz, is trained by Francis-Henri Graffard.

In that race I was astonished that Delacroix hadn’t finished in front of outsider Almaqam, trained by Ed Walker, especially as my vantage point was as near to level with the winning line as it can get. Certainly, it’s better than from the Royal Box fifty yards further down the straight!

Again, there was chat about Christophe Soumillon, even after winning the Two-Year-Old Conditions race on Mission Control for the Coolmore team and O’Brien. In the big one, he was ahead of both Calandagan and William Buick on Ombudsman turning for home but then was swamped by a pincer movement from behind, immediately losing his nice pitch. I doubt he would have troubled the winner, but he might have been in another close fight with the Gosden horse had he kept out of trouble. Most of us thought he ought to have done better in the finish for third too, but I’ve talked about his coming unstuck in photos before.

Then again, having had a chip each way (forget which of my old-time friends used to say that!) on Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy in the closing Balmoral Handicap, the one handicap on the day, my eyes again deceived me. I knew Crown of Oaks had won to give yet another big handicap to William Haggas but was sure Holloway Boy, in his first run since Meydan in April, was a narrow outright second.

Once more, I was wrong, the dead-heat announcement being a further surprise. Talking of Holloway Boy he, like the fifth-placed favourite Native Warrior, is trained by Karl Burke, one trainer inexorably moving up the ladder.

A reflection of that is how he’s now winning races overseas, too. Yesterday in the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp he reversed Balmoral Handicap fortunes with Haggas, Convergent getting the better of his rival’s Dubai Honour by a neck.

Native Warrior was one of five Wathnan Racing runners on the day, from four different stables, all ridden by James Doyle. His is a fantastic job and one that can only get better as the owners and Richard Brown extend their tentacles.

There are still a few rungs to go before Karl Burke makes the top three in his peer group. After Saturday’s skirmishes, when O’Brien, Andrew Balding and the Gosdens each had one winner, it’s status quo in the UK trainers’ title race, with Aidan now guaranteed another triumph. If he wins the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday, he’ll nudge over £8million in prize money.

Finally, after a day with more to mention than space warrants, on the way out I bumped into old pal Graham Thorner, former trainer and Grand National winning rider. I suggested that Ascot remains unique in that it attracts massive crowds for all its dates and that I’d never seen so many young people at a race meeting before. He agreed. Whatever Ascot’s blueprint for success, they should make sure they pass it on to less successful venues.

- TS

Monday Musings: Daryz Makes it the Aga’s Arc

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Ten furlongs (and a little bit) on fast ground at York is a world away from a mile and a half in very soft going at Longchamp in October, writes Tony Stafford. Run in a fast time – yesterday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe was the only race among a string of Group 1’s to better the standard – identifies it as a very good version of the race, certainly as far as the first two home were concerned.

The going might explain in part Daryz’s elevation from last of six as a 14/1 shot at York to winning the Arc at slightly bigger odds. In doing so, he collected more than £2 million for the Aga Khan studs. Sadly, Prince Karim, who died in early February this year, never lived to see his colt, a son of champion 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Arc winner Sea The Stars on the racetrack.

https://youtu.be/poLX14qVTA8?si=6MWEOQdjr4vIwOfK

Daryz only made his debut in early April and trainer Francis-Henri Graffard guided him gently through the grades before York, via two conditions events, then a Listed race and a Group 2, before sending him overseas for the first time.

There was an obvious feeling of shock when he flopped in the Juddmonte, but Daryz restored confidence with a narrow defeat in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange over ten furlongs of Sunday’s course three weeks ago. Just a neck behind Japan’s Croix Du Nord, his was very much a try-out for yesterday, and the form turnaround – 11 lengths – was a stark reminder of how the top French trainers have always used the racing calendar to their advantage.

Daryz would undoubtedly have been at much shorter odds bar the flood of money on the Pari-Mutuel for the three Japanese runners. Two, Croix Du Nord and Alohi Alii, were out with the washing in 14th and 16th of the 17 starters, while Byzantine Dream, supported down to 7/1 second favourite, could do no better than fifth.

So far, we haven’t mentioned the favourite, unreasonably so as Minnie Hauk ran an astounding race, beaten only a neck by the Mickael Barzalona-ridden winner having been in the front four throughout. When Christophe Soumillon took her to the front, it looked like being a Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien treble on the day, but Daryz proved just too strong.

As the colt and filly fought out the finish, it was admirable that they stretched more than five lengths ahead of their field. With such as the Juddmonte one/two Ombudsman and Delacroix absent, as well as unqualified-by-the-conditions star geldings including Calandagan and Goliath, it wasn’t the race of earlier vintages when EVERYTHING used to turn up.

Having been a fan of racing well before Sea Bird II’s 1965 Derby and Arc demolition jobs, I’ll never forget his day in Paris when he cantered over such as Reliance, Diatome and further back the top-class American colt Tom Rolfe.

Big money is to be earned with less sweat for connections and horses alike these days, though, and no doubt the Japanese will be regretting putting so much energy into their continuing luckless quest to win the race. They do far better on Dubai World Cup Day and yesterday’s valiant trio should be ready in time for that.

As the records describe him, Aga Khan IV won the race four times between 1982 and 2008 with Akiyda, Derby winner Sinndar, Dalakhani and the brilliant mare Zarkava.

His father, Prince Aly Khan, married to the actress Rita Hayworth and destined to an early passing via a fatal car crash, enjoyed success in 1959 with Saint Crespin. And his father, Aga Khan III, won the race which was founded in 1920 with Migoli in 1948 and Nuccio four years later.

Talking about the Arc soon afterwards Barzalona explained how he needed to make the most of his good draw. Soumillon on Minnie Hauk (drawn 1) was fast away and Barzalona slotted the winner, exiting stall two, in just handy. It’s always seemed weird to me that over longer distances it happens, but the draw did make a big difference in this race. The highest drawn of the first four home was Marco Botti’s Giavellotto, (drawn five) just behind third-placed Sosie (stall three) in fourth.

You would imagine that the winner, unraced at two, would have plenty to gain from staying in training, and might be aimed at a rare Arc double next year. I would love to see Minnie Hauk, a daughter of Frankel, continue too. One obvious stud route for her was closed when Wootton Bassett came to his untimely end in Australia last month.

It seems a date next month at the Breeders’ Cup has not been ruled out. Yesterday was only her fifth race of the year and seventh in all, so she has hardly been over raced. I’m pretty sure the ever-combative owners would be all for it.

Incidentally, Wootton Bassett had two winners on the Sunday card, both from mares by Galileo. Having already picked up the Qatar Prix Marcel Bousac with Diamond Necklace, O’Brien, Soumillon and the Coolmore partners added the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere for two-year-old colts with Puerto Rico.

Last weekend at Newmarket, on remarking to Michael Tabor that True Love had done well to retain her form through a long season in winning the Cheveley Park Stakes, he replied, “That’s what Aidan does.”

He could have used the same phrase to describe the progress of the Lagardere winner. He was beaten twice in maidens; another couple of times in Curragh Group 2 races before finishing 4th in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) a couple of places behind True Love.

He broke his maiden at the sixth time of asking at Doncaster last month and improved again markedly on that with an all-the-way emphatic success here. Last year’s winner of the race, stable-companion Camille Pissarro, went on to victory in this year’s Prix du Jockey Club and was retired after getting injured when 4th to another stablemate, Delacroix, in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes.

The second win from that Wootton Bassett-Galileo nick was the Christopher Head-trained Maranoa Charlie in the Prix de la Foret. The three-year-old had been extremely unlucky when third at York and showed his true colours here.

There had been a few mutterings that Soumillon’s spell as temporary replacement for Ryan Moore had not been a success, but the contra view was that he would come into his own on the French tracks. His masterful judgment of pace coming from the back on Diamond Necklace was a typical French ride from the Yves Saint-Martin era, never getting involved until coming with a smooth run down the outside. Those 8/1 odds for Newmarket next spring might shrink a fair bit over the winter.

Unusually, yesterday wasn’t a great day for UK trainers, who drew a blank. One who did play a part in a piece of racing history, however, was Amy Murphy. Now happily settled in Chantilly, she had been among the back-up team behind Asfoora’s first ever win for an Australian-trained horse in France.

Asfoora’s trainer Henry Dwyer was rather sheepish as he related how if it hadn’t been for Ms Murphy and a very quick Uber driver, the mare would not have been allowed to race.

Instead of taking Asfoora’s passport to the track, he brought the one for a horse he’d bought at the Arqana Arc Eve sale on Saturday. Amy sorted the driver and the correct passport arrived with a minute and a half to spare.

It didn’t take Asfoora quite that long to beat her 16 rivals in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp under a very confident Oisin Murphy. She came through to challenge outsider Jawwal in the last furlong, winning by a comfortable half-length in 56.39 sec. The seven-year-old isn’t regarded as the best sprinter in Australia but she’s more than good enough to beat the cream of Europe’s speed merchants.

It was sad that Peter Charalambous’s Apollo One found so much trouble in the six furlongs of Ascot’s John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes on Saturday, more than enough to prevent a follow-up from last year’s triumph. Stopped in his run repeatedly, he stretched out gamely to the line, making up several lengths in the last furlong, but missed out by a rapidly diminishing short head to Mick Appleby’s Annaf.

Winning group races is never easy, but this was one that slipped through his owner-trainer-breeder’s fingers. It made the difference of £30k and prevented the seven-year-old (that’s right, another one) from getting neatly onto career earnings of almost exactly half a million quid.  I’m sure it’s only delayed.

  • TS

2025 St Leger Trends

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The St Leger is the oldest of the five British flat racing Classics, as well as the longest in trip at Doncaster racecourse.

Run over a distance of 1m6f and for 3 year-olds only this contest is targeted by horses that ran in that season’s Great Voltigeur, with 9 of the last 22 winners having ran in that York race before winning this, while in recent years with seen 9 winning favourites in the last 22 runnings.

Look out for John Gosden-trained horses as this powerful Newmarket stable has won the race four times in the last 22 years, while top Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger eight times, including 5 of the last 12 seasons with Leading Light, Capri, Kew Gardens, Continuous and last year with Jan Brueghel.

Also note any Godolphin-owned entries as they these famous blue silks have won the final English Classic of the season a staggering seven times.

Here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal - on Saturday 13th September.

Recent St Leger Winners

2024 - Jan Brueghel (11/4 jfav)
2023 - Continuous (3/1)
2022 – Eldar Eldarov (9/2)
2021 – Hurricane Lane (8/11 fav)
2020 – Galileo Chrome (4/1)
2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
2018 - Kew Gardens (3/1)
2017 - Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1)
2015 – Simple Verse (8/1)
2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav)
2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav)
2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2)
2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1)
2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav)
2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav)
2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav)
2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav)
2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)

Key St Leger Trends

20/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
20/23 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
20/23 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
19/23 – Placed favourites
19/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Had won a Group race before
18/23 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
15/23 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
15/23 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
13/23 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
13/23 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
14/23 – Won last time out
14/23 – Officially rated 109 to 115
10/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/23 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
7/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden
4/23 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (7 wins in total)
4/23 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (3 won it)
3/23 – Ridden by William Buick
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/23 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/23 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 7 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 8 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 6/1

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Whirl aiming to underline Arc claims with Vermeille victory

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Whirl is among a plethora of horses looking to cement their place in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on a jam-packed card at ParisLongchamp on Sunday.

Touched off by stablemate Minnie Hauk in the Oaks, she has since beaten Kalpana in the Pretty Polly in Ireland and ran out an easy winner of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

She is as low as 6-1 joint-favourite for the Arc in some lists in a market that is sure to have a big shake-up after this weekend.

O’Brien also runs Bedtime Story, who was second to Gezora in the Prix de Diane and that pair meet again.

Stable representative Chris Armstrong said: “It looks a lovely race for her. Obviously, there are some very good fillies in it. It is a very good race, it is a Group One and it will be nice to get this out of the way and see where she fits in for the back end of the season – is she a filly that ends up in the Arc mix?

“She has loads of options and she has been a filly that has just gone from strength to strength this year, physically and mentally. She came through Goodwood very well and her work has been lovely since. Aidan and all the team at home have been delighted with her. Looking forward to tomorrow.”

Francis-Henri Graffard said of Gezora: “This race has been the target ever since she won the Prix de Diane. She worked on the racecourse on Tuesday and everything went smoothly.

“I don’t think the longer distance will be an issue – she’s very relaxed in her races. She’s also proven she can handle any ground.

“This race will help us decide on the rest of her campaign. The Arc is certainly an option, but the Prix de l’Opera is also on the table.”

Christophe Ferland’s Aventure was second to Bluestocking in both the Prix Vermeille and the Arc last season and returns for a second tilt at the former contest after finishing second to Calandagan in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out.

“Everything is looking good for Sunday. Maxime Guyon came to work her on Tuesday morning and all went well. Aventure is in great form,” said Ferland.

Los Angeles was a fine third in the Arc last season, having attempted the tough task of making all.

He added another Group One to his record in the Tattersalls Gold Cup earlier this campaign, but O’Brien admitted his King George tactics were wrong and felt he was some way from his best last time out. He runs in the Prix Foy.

“We’re very happy, he only started back at the Curragh (last time) so he was always going to have an easy time. He had an easy time because it was his first run back, then the plan was he would go to France for his next one and it will be a bit harder,” said O’Brien.

“He’s still not all out, there’s more to come, and hopefully he’ll arrive in time for the Arc. The season went downhill a bit at Ascot but the Arc has always been his aim.”

Sosie was one place behind Los Angeles in the Arc and has his first run since finishing sixth in the Eclipse for Andre Fabre.

The Japanese challenger, Byzantine Dream, was second in the Tenno Sho when last seen in May and connections are hoping this will be the perfect stepping stone to the Arc.

His trainer Tomoyasu Sakaguchi, said: “In the Foy, the key is for him to have a good, incident-free race that serves as a springboard to the main goal. His preparation has gone very well. He’s a bit unsettled by the change of environment – his stress levels are higher than they would be in Japan – but we hope he’ll settle quickly.”

Ed Walker’s Almaqam showed his class earlier in the season when beating Ombudsman, but has been frustrated by the dry summer and this will be his first try at 12 furlongs.

“I think the Prix Foy is the right race for him,” said Walker.

“The ground should suit. Several jockeys who’ve ridden him before believe he’ll stay. His pedigree doesn’t make it obvious, but the way he races suggests he should. He’s a dream of a horse for a jockey – you can place him anywhere.

“Sunday will tell us whether he’s an Arc horse or better suited to the Champion Stakes. He’s in phenomenal form.”

The Prix Niel should prove informative too, with Jean-Claude Rouget’s Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard in a field of eight.

“His preparation went well. Leffard and Arrow Eagle (runs in the Prix Foy) worked together on Monday at Deauville and finished together,” said Rouget.

“I didn’t see the point in running Leffard at Deauville. I think moving the Arc trials up by a week was a great decision – it gives horses more recovery time.”

Aidan O’Brien runs Swagman, not seen since winning the Classic Trial at Sandown, and Aftermath, who is making his seasonal reappearance.

Joseph O’Brien sends over Tennessee Stud, third in the Derby and fourth in the Irish version, with George Scott’s Bay City Roller another who cannot be dismissed trying the trip for the first time.

Gstaad going up in distance in bid to be National hero

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Gstaad is expected to thrive over seven furlongs when he tries the trip for the first time in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh next weekend.

A hugely impressive winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, he met with defeat on his next start in what looked a red-hot Prix Morny at Deauville.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien was encouraged by the way he finished that race off though, and expects him to improve for the step up in trip.

Gstaad was a brilliant winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot
Gstaad was a brilliant winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

“Gstaad will love seven furlongs,” said O’Brien. “He went to France but it was a little bit early, he came back heavier than he went so he’s going to be very comfortable at seven, he always was.

“The original plan was that he was going to go to the Curragh for a stiff six (Phoenix Stakes) but we didn’t get to go obviously. The filly (True Love) was to go to Deauville but they had to swap around.

“That was the way it worked but it didn’t suit either, the filly would probably be better over a quick six and he would have been better over a stiff six but that’s the way it was.

“He’s a fair horse, he stays, he’s quick, he’s a big hardy horse and you could see him going through the line at Deauville.”

He may be joined in the National Stakes at the Irish Champions Festival by Italy, second to Gewan in the Acomb Stakes at York.

“It’s possible Italy could join him, he ran well at York. He got back a little bit, he’s still a little immature mentally but we’re happy with him since so it’s a strong possibility he will,” said O’Brien.

Another potentially smart juvenile from the yard is Montreal, who is heading towards the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown a day earlier.

The son of Sea The Stars could be joined by a plethora of stablemates.

“Montreal was very impressive at Leopardstown when he won the last day,” added O’Brien.

“The Frankel horse who won in Killarney is a possible (Benvenuto Cellini) and the Frankel horse that won at the Curragh is a possible (New Zealand), as is the Frankel that won at Galway, Action. We’ve the horse that won at Goodwood by Camelot, Isaac Newton, he’s possible. They’re all possibles.”

Composing is building a fine reputation
Composing is building a fine reputation (Damien Eagers/PA)

Composing looks a very nice type among the fillies and is set to head the Moyglare Stud Stakes team.

He said: “Composing won very well the last day. She’s a very straightforward, honest to God filly.

“She doesn’t mind making the running and you have to follow her because she stays. She’s a good filly so that will be the plan with her.

“Beautify could run, she won a Group Two at the Curragh a while ago but she couldn’t run any more because she had penalties wherever she went. She’d be very happy going up to seven.

“There’s the filly who won at Goodwood as well (Precise) she might go or she might wait.”

Illinois and Jan Brueghel set for Irish St Leger clash

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Two Ballydoyle heavyweights in Illinois and Jan Brueghel are on a collision course in the Comer Group Irish St Leger at the Curragh on Sunday week.

Illinois finished second to Trawlerman in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June and was then beaten by younger stablemate Scandinavia in the Goodwood Cup.

Jan Brueghel beat Illinois by a neck in last year’s St Leger at Doncaster and was too good for Calandagan in this summer’s Coronation Cup, but trainer Aidan O’Brien has admitted to getting his tactics all wrong when he attempted to make all in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Speaking at a press morning at his Ballydoyle Stables ahead of the Irish Champions Festival, O’Brien said: “I think Illinois and Jan Brueghel will take each other on, the lads are very happy for that to happen. They are two older horses.

“We might not have seen the best of Illinois yet because the Gold Cup was a bit hard on him and his preparation up to it might not have been brilliant. He might have felt that a little bit in Goodwood, but we think he’s in a good place again. It might take until next year to get him right back.

“Jan Brueghel, we absolutely made a hash of it in the King George but he’s very well. Obviously he’s very idle in front, he needs something to be running at but he stays very well and he’s in good shape.

“You get plenty of days like Ascot but it’s sport and you have to take the good with the bad, you often learn more from the bad. At least we know what not to do with him any more, we won’t ask him to make his own running. He loves following a horse, stays very well but he is lazy.”

When asked if Jan Brueghel could be a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe contender, O’Brien added: “He could be anything if the pace is on. We did the perfect thing with him at Epsom and then the completely wrong thing at Ascot.”