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Aintree Trends: Thurs 8th April 2021

A top week for horse racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 8th April 2021 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day.

We get started on DAY ONE with the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Rose Paterson Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is plenty to look forward to.

As always with the big meetings here at GEEGEEZ we've all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

THURSDAY, 8th April 2021 (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.20pm – Doombar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (11/4)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

15/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
14/17 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/17 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
11/17 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 13)
3/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/17  - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (last two)
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
12/15 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 11 of the last 21 (53%) runnings – including 4 of the last 5
14/20 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/30 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

 

2.50pm – The Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

2019 Winner: KEMBOY (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: R Walsh

15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/17 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
9/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/17 – Aged in double-figures
5/17 – Winning favourites (4 of the last 5)
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/6 – Won that season’s King George
4/6 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
15/36 (42%) winners were aged 10 or older
25/36 (69%) winners ran in that season’s King George
25/36 (69%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
13/23 (57%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Irish-trained winners are just 3-from-13 in the last 8 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 27 (48%) renewals and 6 of the last 10 (60%)
4 of the last 9 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010
3 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury

 

3.25pm – The Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2019 Winner: SUPASUNDAE (15/2)
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Jockey: Robbie Power

16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
9/17 – Irish-trained winners, plus 19 of the last 43
5/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 9)
13 of the last 26 (50%) winners trained in Ireland
29 of the last 43 (67%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
7 of the last 10 winners (70%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
11 of the last 14 winners (including last 8) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 31 runnings
Just 1 of the last 19 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won

 

4.05pm – The Rose Paterson Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2019 Winner: TOP WOOD (14/1)
Trainer: Kelly Morgan
Jockey: Tabitha Worsley

17/17 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 34 winners were younger than 9)
13/17 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged in double-figures
12/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
4 of the last 6 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
19 of the last 27 (70%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
22 of the last 27 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 36 winners were aged younger than 9
22 of the last 27 (81%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
10 of the last 15 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 12 of the last 18 (67%) renewals

 

4.40pm – The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2019 Winner: Moon Over Germany (11/2)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

16/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Carried 11-1 or less
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/17 – Aged 7 or younger
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Irish-trained winner
13 of the last 18 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 19 winners were Novices (inc last 4)
16 of the last 20 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 12 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 15 of the last 22 (68%) runnings
18 of the last 20 (90%) winners carried 11-2 or less
3 of the last 13 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 21 (33%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
5 of the last 6 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The last 5 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 and 3 placed horses

 

Aintree Trends: Fri 9th April 2021

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 9th April 2021 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

FRIDAY, 9th April 2021 (ITV/Racing TV)

 

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

2019 Winner: FELIX DESJY (7/2)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

16/17 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/17 – Finished first or second last time out
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/17 – Had raced on the flat before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 10)
4/17 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just two Irish winner since 1978 (1 from 25 this century)
10 of the last 20 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2019 Winner: LOSTINTRANSLATION (3/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

17/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
13/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/17 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of last 3)
2/17 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 17 runnings between them
16 of the last 23 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (10) years-old
The last 17 winners were either French (7) or Irish (10) bred.
5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
30 of the last 31 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 29 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (83%) winners had won twice or more over fences
15 of the last 18 (83%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

 

3.25pm – The Marsh Steeple Chase (Reg as the Melling Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2019 Winner: MIN (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: R Walsh

17/17 – Raced within the last 30 days
17/17 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
10/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/17 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
22 of the last 29 (76%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 29 (79%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
16 of the last 25 (64%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
27 of the last 29 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2019 Winner: CADIUM (8/1)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

16/17 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/17 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
4/17 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 - Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 6 winners carried 11-1 or more
5 of the last 6 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 6 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 16 (63%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 27 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 3 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

 

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2019 Winner: CHAMP (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Mark Walsh

15/17 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
2/17 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/17 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (92%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 26 (50%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 20 (65%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival