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Tony Stafford’s Grand National A to D

atodEx-Fleet Street doyen, Tony Stafford, splits the Grand National contenders into four teams, A to D. Hint: you probably want to be on the A'Team if possible...

THE A-TEAM

LONG RUN Hard to believe this former Gold Cup hero – and veteran of umpteen wins around Auteuil - is only nine. Rider has brilliant record around the track and this looks Nicky’s best hope of getting his head in front in the title race.

TRIOLO D’ALENE Hennessy hero got involved in scrimmaging during Gold Cup. Afterthought entry, and maybe this is either a year too soon or not necessarily his track. Dangerous though.

MR MOONSHINE Tailed off behind stablemate winner 12 months ago but improved form since including strong-finishing third in Becher Chase. Last year’s winning rider takes the mount.

TEAFORTHREE Third in 2013, he has been lightly-raced since with the sole aim of winning this time. Single-minded trainer tends to hit her targets.

DOUBLE SEVEN Five chase wins in summer/autumn led to 35lb rise for this green and gold clad eight-year-old. Break brought a promising comeback run last month and could be one of Ireland’s better outsiders.

MONBEG DUDE Royal connections and decent credentials for this former marathon type, who’s showing a little more pace. Nice – should have had ‘em in – prep and one for the short list.

BIG SHU Reliable in cross-country races at top level, but profile suggests he’ll finish nearer than his Festival conqueror Balthazar King. One to be easing into a place up the run-in.

VINTAGE STAR Another from the Sue Smith academy. Stays well and level of this season’s form better than previously. Place claims.

HAWKES POINT Dour stayer whose Welsh National second off 10st was far better than apparently similar task at Haydock off 20lb higher. Fair chance.

PINEAU DE RE Close to the veteran stage, but in single season with Dr Newland this ex-Irish stayer has continued to improve and looked a little unlucky not to catch Fingal Bay at Cheltenham. Might like the track.

SOLL Ran well for a long way last year and is sure to be in the leading group throughout. A big-priced runner who keeps making you want to scratch!

NIGHT IN MILAN He’s a frequent winner and still only eight. It was hard to dislike his Yorkshire Chase romp and he’s a big candidate from his feather weight.

 

THE B-LIST

ROCKY CREEK Consistent in high class, but rating keeps rising for non-winning. Feasible chance, but he looks a bit of a one-pacer to carry such a big burden.

LION NA BERNAI Former Irish National winner got another victory over shorter this winter but at 12 seems high enough in the weights. No problem with stamina/guts though.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE Versatile hurdle/chase winner since joining Mullins from Howard Johnson, and has kept top company since. Maybe a little below that level now.

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BURTON PORT One-time Gold Cup fourth, had been quiet since joining Jonjo from Hendo with “win me another National” directive from Mr Blackpool. They must have thought they’d lined him up to win at Newbury but his finish was a little limited. Well weighted on old form.

MOUNTAINOUS Gallant Welsh National winner, would love it to rain, so latest weather might cause him to be outpaced in the last mile, with so few fences to negotiate.

THE RAINBOW HUNTER Unseated in this last year, but 25-1 Doncaster success suggests another race of hope for his high-profile (ish) connections.

CHANCE DU ROY Aintree fences winner ran other decent race in fourth at Ascot. Small chance but security over these fences is a major plus.

GOLAN WAY  Fresh 10-year-old won plenty of races in the past. Jumped well when coming through easy prep.

ALVARADO Winner of long-distance handicap at Cheltenham this season but refused there in January.

GOONYELLA Another marathon winner – in Punchestown last year - and was not disgraced on recent prep.

MINELLA FOR VALUE Prolific winner in Ireland summer/autumn before fourth on only run so far for John Butler. Clever trainer and he’s had six months to tighten the screws.

TRANQUIL SEA Took competitive Doncaster veterans’ chase to make it 13 career wins. Likely to be up there for a long way.

 

 

C-EEN BETTER DAYS

HUNT BALL Hard to forget his exploits under former connections, but American adventure was a flop and stamina an issue especially off this weight.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE Nine-time winner was once off 169 but his efforts over the past year have been very far removed from those heights. Could have spirit rekindled, but think not.

WAYWARD PRINCE He’s an old adversary of Quito’s and similarly languishing after former eminence. If he could get back to his 50-1 second to Harry Topper in this season’s Charlie Hall that would be a different matter entirely.

OUR FATHER Wide-margin Cheltenham winner early last season, he’s been nowhere near that level since, but this stable does have a habit of Lazarean revivals.

VESPER BELL Improving Mullins chaser until progress was halted by first-fence fall here last autumn and unseated at Cheltenham. Another that needs transformation, but could happen.
THE PACKAGE Smart on his day and no disguising promise of Cheltenham third in first run since previous year’s Festival, when pulled up. Article of faith needed.

RAZ DE MAREE Fair third at Down Royal in minor event ended dreary run of three poor efforts. Whether he can progress at this intensity is doubtful.

SHAKALABOOMBOOM Joint-favourite when eighth in this two years ago after a strong campaign. Done nothing in three runs following a year off.

LAST TIME D’ALBAIN Generally operates at around two and a half miles, and as far as the three runs this campaign go, not very prominently.

SWING BILL Knows his way around here blindfold and was sixth in National last year. Now 13, it’s unlikely he’ll match that.

SAINT ARE In unstoppable form at this meeting two years ago in hurdles/chase, but nothing since.

OUT NOW Irish National runner up in 2012, looks miles below that level.

 

D-ON’T GO NEAR ME

TIDAL BAY Many people’s idea of the winner, but his tendency to switch off is liable to give him too much to claw back. Short enough in the betting considering the age/temperament/weight issues.

COLBERT STATION Good 2012-3 season until not seeming to like track under McCoy when bailing out here last year. Nothing since, but may attract some JP cash.

WALKON Whatever his attributes, it’s hard to imagine that a one-time top four-year-old with the speed to win at two miles, can stretch to more than double that distance. Not a great jumper, but no chance of getting home

BALTHAZAR KING Won the Cheltenham Cross Country in game fashion, but faded out after being up there for a long way in this 12 months ago. Same story probable.

ACROSS THE BAY Challenged Balthazar for the early lead in 2013. Another who’ll be gradually weakening in the last mile.
BATTLE GROUP Two great wins here (hurdle and chase) at the meeting in 2013, but the other side of his make-up has been on show since. Pull up candidate.

BUCKERS BRIDGE OK at two and a half miles. Won’t get home.

KRUZHLININ Plenty of wins on card and two three-milers at Kelso are encouraging, but nothing like what’s needed and doubt he’ll stay the trip/cope with 30 jumps.

TWIRLING MAGNET Looks like a summer horse who might pick up a big one at Galway or Market Rasen.

ROSE OF THE MORN easy Wetherby winner but hammered over these fences beforehand.

LOST GLORY Like Twirling Magnet, a summer type.

ONE IN A MILAN Plodder.
VERDICT

I NIGHT IN MILAN; 2 TEAFORTHREE; 3 MONBEG DUDE; 4 BIG SHU. Outsider PINEAU DE RE.

Aintree Festival Stat Pack

Aintree Festival stats and trends

Aintree Festival stats and trends

In this post, I thought I'd craft together some hopefully material facts and figures about Aintree's Grand National meeting. They're all designed help you profit from some spectacular racing and, with quality fields galore, we may need all the help we can get.

Aintree Grand National Meeting Trainers to Note

Some surprising findings with regards to trainers, as the champions elect of both Britain and Ireland are massive 'swerve' material when it comes to this meeting. Indeed, in the last five years, Messrs Mullins and Nicholls have saddled 166 horses, with just twelve winning (7%). Worse still, Mullins is actually 0-33!

To the list of negative trainers we can add some more high profile names. For instance, how about Grand National-winning trainer Donald McCain? He's sure to be talked about as a result of the exploits of Ballabriggs (and, of course, his late father, Ginger, trainer of Red Rum and Amberleigh House). But he's had just three winners from 59 Aintree National meeting runners in the last five seasons. That's worth a minus of 36.75 points, or a 62.3% negative ROI. Ouch.

And then there's Venetia Williams, another darling of the Grand National soundbite thanks to her 100/1 winner, Mon Mome, the first French-bred to win the big race for exactly a hundred years. Anyway, that's why they'll be talking to her, and talking up her horses' chances. But the reality is that since 2009, that was Venetia's only Aintree April winner, despite having saddled forty nags. Moreover, just four even made the frame.

On the plus side, Peter Bowen has a reputation for being an Aintree winner, and it's well earned. He's scored four times in the last five years and, though three of them were with the brilliant Always Waining, he also banged in 28/1 scorer, Big Time Billy.

Jonjo O'Neill is another positive, with his National winner, Don't Push It headlining a record of five winners from 42 runners. A further eleven placed horses gives him a place strike rate of 38% and makes him a placepotter's pal.

Alan King rounds out my hat-trick of hero handlers, with seven winners from his 49 runners in the past five seasons at this meeting. He too can boast a supporting cast of eleven placed horses for a 37% place record and is also awarded placepotter's pal status.

gntrainerrecords

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Aintree Grand National Meeting Jockeys to Note

So if those are the noteworthy trainers - for whatever reason - then who are the noteworthy jockeys? The one name to stand out is Barry Geraghty. Although he's only recorded an SP profit of 4.40 points, he's ridden 14 winners from 71 mounts, which is better than 20%. A further seven places gives him a 30% win/place strike rate.

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Paul Carberry's three wins and three places from eighteen rides, puts him on the positive list; while Choc Thornton's relationship with Alan King has earned him a place on the plus list via six wins and ten further places from 36 rides. How many of King's horses he'll ride this week remains to be seen, but he clearly knows the way home and might be interesting on 'outside' offerings.

On the downside, Aidan Coleman is nursing a 0 from 37 record largely due to his connection to Venetia Williams (and he chose the wrong one when Mon Mome won the National - ouch!). Just two places from those rides makes for a lamentable record, despite Coleman being an excellent jockey.

Likewise, Jason Maguire is a fine rider, and ditto, his relationship with Donald McCain has contributed towards a negative expectation of his mounts. I don't suppose he'll mind given that he's a National winner, courtesy of the guv'nor's Ballabriggs, but he only has one other winner from 49 starts on his palmarès.

gnjockeyrecords

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Horses for Meetings?

We've looked at trainers and jockeys, so what about the horses? Always Waining was a three-time winner at the Grand National meeting, all of them in the Topham, but with him now retired, what other possibles are there for us to look to? And what is the record of past winners anyway?

Incredibly, looking at horses that had previously won at Aintree, they were able to win again at this meeting 24 times from 239 starts (10%) for a profit at SP of 137.36 points. Even allowing for the 100/1 victory of Mon Mome, that still equates to a profit of 37.36 points. In the same year as Mon Mome (2009), Culcabock was a 66/1 repeat scorer.

Whilst 2011 and 2012 were negative years on this angle, last year there were seven repeat scorers from 53 to try, and they were worth nigh on 50 points of profit.

Each way backers would hit the frame 29% of the time with this approach, and benefit to the tune of 169 points. Focusing solely on horses priced 5/1 or up (i.e. an each way price), there were twelve winners and 31 places from 197 starters, for a profit of 180.90 points, at a 22% each way clip.

gnhorsesformeetings

[Above stats courtesy of horseracebase.com]

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Cheltenham, yes or no?

So what about a run at Cheltenham? Does it matter? And if it does, is it a positive or a negative?

The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is that a run at Cheltenham can be seen as a positive. 'Surprisingly' because it's often considered that Aintree is 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' of Cheltenham, and that horses are 'over the top' by now.

But the data suggests that simply blindly backing Cheltenham Festival runners at Aintree's Grand National meeting would have yielded a profit at Betfair SP.

gncheltenham

[Above stats courtesy of horseracebase.com]

There is a further theory about horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham, usually expressed as those that finished in the frame. In fact, the converse is true in quite a startling way. Looking only at those Cheltenham Festival runners that finished 1-2-3 at the Festival, their performance at Aintree is little short of stellar.

gncheltenham2

[Above stats courtesy of horseracebase.com]

With a strike rate of almost one in four, and a profit at SP of 63 points (91 points at Betfair SP), this is probably the best Aintree system ever - and the simplest! Unfortunately, it does come with a downside warning: two of the five years were unprofitable, and going back to 2006, three of the years were unprofitable (although one of those was just over break even at Betfair SP).

Nevertheless, you're unlikely to go too far wrong using this as a starting point.

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