Posts

2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 6th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2019 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 6th April 2019 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 6th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: BLACK OP (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Noel Fehily

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
14/16 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/16 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 9 favs have won)
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
17 of the last 21 (81%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 15 (53%) runnings between them
6 of the last 9 runnings went to a 5 year-old

3.00pm – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2018 Winner: DIEGO DU CHARMIL (5/1 odds)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
16/16 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
16/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/16 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/16 – Ridden by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/16 – Irish-trained winners
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
2/16 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 6 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 24 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 10 winners were French bred

3.40pm – Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: IDENTITY THIEF (14/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Sean Flanagan

14/15 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/15 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/15 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/15 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
10/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Won their last race
8/15 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/15 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 15 (87%) had run at this meeting before
13 of the last 15 (87%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 10 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 10 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

 

4.20pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2018 Winner: THOMAS PATRICK (3/1 fav odds)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Richard Johnson

14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/16 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Unplaced in their last race
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 20 winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 15 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 42 runnings
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners were rated between 134 and 140

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)
·  27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

    • Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
    • 10 of the last 11 winners were having their first start in the race
    • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
    • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
    • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
    • 12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
    • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
    • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
    • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
    • 5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
    • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals
    • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
    • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
    • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)

15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously
14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago
14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/16 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Experienced the National fences
6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/16 – Won by the McCain yard

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 5th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 5th April 2019 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 5th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2018 Winner: LALOR (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Kayley Woollacott
Jockey: Richard Johnson

15/16 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/16 – Finished first or second last time out
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/16 – Had raced on the flat before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1978
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

2018 Winner: TERREFORT (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/16 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
29 of the last 30 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 28 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

201 Winner: POLITOLOGUE (11/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

16/16 – Raced within the last 30 days
16/16 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
15/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
21 of the last 28 (75%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
30 of the last 33 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
26 of the last 28 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2018 Winner: ULTRAGOLD (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

15/16 – Raced within the last 34 days
15/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/16 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last 5 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 13 (62%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 15 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 26 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: SANTINI (6/4 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (88%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 19 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Stat of the Day, 5th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.55 Southwell : Dolly Dupree @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, never on terms)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Champ 11/4 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Grade 1, Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good to Soft/Soft worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has never been out of the first two home so far, winning 5 of 8 starts including...

  • 4/6 over hurdles, 4/5 going left handed & 4/5 as favourite
  • 4/6 on Good to Soft/Soft, 2/4 in Novice Hurdles
  • 3/3 carrying 11-04 to 11-06, 2/3 within 14-28 days of his last run
  • 2/3 under Barry Geraghty and 1/2 at Grade 1.

His trainer, Nicky Henderson, is 29/132 (22% SR) for 82.5pts (+62.5% ROI) over hurdles here at Aintree since 2012, from which...

  • those running at the National meeting are 17/91 (18.7%) for 50.7pts (+55.7%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days : 20/90 (22.2%) for 62.5pts (+69.4%)
  • on Good to Soft / Soft ground : 16/72 (22.2%) for 17.6pts (+24.4%)
  • in non-handicaps : 18/67 (26.9%) for 13.4pts (+19.9%)
  • those who ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO are 13/55 (23.6%) for 56.8pts (+103.3%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 21/53 (39.6%) for 57pts (+107.5%)

And more generally...Since 2010, horses finishing in the first three home at the Cheltenham Festival who are then sent straight to the Aintree National Meeting have won 63 of 262 (24.1% SR) for 172.7pts (+65.9% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • non-hcps : 53/179 (29.6%) for 72.8pts (+40.7%)
  • at Grade 1 : 41/150 (27.3%) for 57.7pts (+38.5%)
  • hurdlers are 34/121 (28.1%) for 109pts (+90.1%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 22/105 (21%) for 56.2pts (+53.5%)
  • and those trained by Nicky Henderson are 19/46 (41.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Champ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 15

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.90 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 – 5/4*

Race 2: 68.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 8/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 78.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 3/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 33/1 – 10/1

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4** - 6/4** - 16/1

Race 6: 68.8% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 3/1** - 3/1**

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Oberyn Martell) & 3 (Good Luck Fox)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 2 (2.35): 12 (Sky Cross), 6 (Glorious Dane) & 5 (Eagle Hunter)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Brigand), 1 (Character Witness) & 4 (Warssan)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Acclimatise) & 6 (Turnpike Trip)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Preening), 8 (Autumn Leaves) & 3 (Affina)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Beringer) & 9 (Hyanna)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Firelight in easy to back at around the 16/1 mark this morning but it will interesting to keep an eye on Andrew Balding’s raider, especially as the trainer has (unusually as I recall) five George Strawbridge juveniles in training this term. More logical winners today include OBERYN MARTELL and GOOD LUCK FOX.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured just one bronze medal between them to date.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston (SKY CROSS) leads Richard Hannon (GLORIOUS DANE & DANCING SPEED) 4/3 via recent renewals and I cannot visualise all three horses finishing out of the frame.  That said, the declarations of EAGLE HUNTER and Roger Varian’s late May foal KENZOHOPE complicates matters. Just to add salt into the potential wound, there is plenty of money coming in for Happy Power as I close out the race.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the 19 year study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

3.10: With four of his last nine runners having won at the time of writing, William Haggas carries on regardless of where his horses run and at what level. William could be greeting another gold medallist on Friday afternoon with BRIGAND in this event.  That said, this is a lively three-year-old handicap and no mistake, with connections of CHARACTER WITNESS and WARSAAN also have solid reasons for fancying their respective chances.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals to date.  Three of the four relevant horses won their respective events at 13/8, 7/4 and 7/2**.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have secured 20 of the last 37 available Placepot positions in this event, as well as winning six of the twelve contests for good measure (stats include a 12/1 chance).  Four-year-olds are 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is taken into consideration, with ACCLIMATISE and TURNPIKE TRIP at the head of the overnight list.  I could have really fancied Henry Candy’s latter named raider but for the fast ground, given that his two wins last year were both gained under good to soft conditions.  Given his 11/1 quote in three places at the time of writing, I’m willing to take the gamble, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (exact science), statistics which include five (11/4, 2/1, 11/8, 5/4 & Evens) winners.

 

4.20: AFFINA is attracting money at double figure prices as I drift towards the end of the Placepot card and there is every chance that Simon Crisford’s raider can reach the frame.  From a win perspective however, PREENING and AUTUMN LEAVES will command more attention from the Sandown faithful I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include three (3/1, 6/4** & 5/4) winners.

 

4.50: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried a minimum of 9-1 (nine of the last ten were burdened with 9-3 or more) whereby BERINGER and HYANNA form my permutation in the Placepot finale.  If there is a flat trainer in the land who has improved her ratios better than Eve Johnson Houghton in recent months I would be surprised and her new inmate Hyanna might push the projected favourite Beringer all the way to the line.  For the record, the reserve nomination is awarded to Returning Glory.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won 6/12 of the contests to date, whist ten of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.10 Yarmouth : Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

We continue with Friday's...

7.55 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

We have a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 3 handicap chase up at Perth last time out (12 days ago), when making all en route to a 13 lengths success under today's jockey and regular rider Harry Reed. This took his chasing record to 5 wins and 6 places from 20 attempts, a decent record that includes...

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 16 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for trainer Tim Reed
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for jockey Harry Reed
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 on Good ground
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 carrying 11st 13lbs
  • 2 from 2 in June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 wearing cheekpieces...

...and Tim / Harry Reed + Class 3 + Good ground + 6-9 runners = 3/3 (100% SR) for 22.5pts (+750% ROI), including 2/2 in June, 1/1 carrying 11-12 and 1/1 in cheekpieces.

More generally, since the start of 2013 in UK Class 3 handicap chases at trips shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description, male runners who won a handicap chase last time out 6 to 20 days earlier are 78 from 334 (23.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+21.4% ROI) from which the following are relevant today...

  • those who won by more than 2 lengths LTO are 57/215 (26.5%) for 74.4pts (+34.6%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 won 52 of 198 (26.3%) for 51.6pts (+26.1%)
  • those racing on Good ground are 45/188 (23.9%) for 24.1pts (+12.8%)
  • those who are running at the same class as LTO are 33/148 (22.3%) for 31.4pts (+21.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f/2m : 13/38 (34.2%) for 27.8pts (+73.2%)
  • and this year alone : 6/18 (33.3%) for 6.64pts (+36.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOGwhich was widely available from Betbright, Betfair, Coral, Paddy Power & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 18th May

YORK – MAY 18 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £106.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,948.46 - Favourites stats - 44 in total - 17 winners - 11 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.8% units went through – 4/1** - 4/1** - 16/1

Race 2: 40.8% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 5/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 45.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 40/1

Race 4: 77.85% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 15/8*

Race 5: 46.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 5/1 – 8/1

Race 6: 19.8% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 14/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (No Lippy), 3 (Carrie’s Vision) & 16 (Strings Of Life)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Sheilha Reika) & 6 (Threading)

Leg 3 (3.30): 7 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Desert Skyline)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Valcartier), 3 (Kings Gift) & 9 (Master Carpenter)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Crafty Madam), 3 (Pepita) & 4 (Ifubelieveindreams)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Koditime), 5 (Areen Faisal) & 7 (Marnie James)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eleven of the thirteen winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 with the likes of NO LIPPY and CARRIE’S VISION making plenty of appeal this time around towards the top of the market.  Mark Johnston appears to have a typical MJ streetfighter in NO LIPPY who took control early doors in the ‘Lily Agnes’ last week and was not for passing.  This is a tougher assignment obviously, though there is every indication that Mark’s Oasis Dream filly can land the hat trick en route to even better things later in the season.  The other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint is STRINGS OF LIFE in an absorbing start to the final day of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Six of the 15 favourites (thirteen renewals) have obliged to date, whilst ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

9-2-7 (13 ran-soft)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via twelve renewals during the last thirteen years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  The opening line of the stats immediately below suggest the race could develop between the market leaders SHEIKHA REIKA and THREADING, the horses being listed in that order via slightly more strength on the exchanges overnight for the first named Roger Varian trained representative.  Those looking for an alternative each way play (though this is a ‘short field’ event) could do worse than consider the overnight ‘rag’ in the contest’ namely JULIET FOXTRET at around the 12/1 mark.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 25 of the last 28 horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the thirteen favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-5 (6 ran-soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

York record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Awesome Tank (good)

1/1—Threading (good to soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ (thoroughbreds were built for speed rather than endurance from my viewpoint) and I will simply be looking to get through the Placepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that STRADIVARIUS has plenty to offer by way of past results, whilst those of you looking for an each way/Placepot interest in the contest might consider the likes of DESERT SKYLINE and CALL TO MIND.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 recent favourites have finished in the frame, whilst seven market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/12—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Max Dynamite (good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available Placepot positions. Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms two years ago and the pick only four 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be VALCARTIER and KINGS GIFT.  That all said, there is the small matter of MASTER CARPENTER having been declared to attempt to defend his crown successfully after blowing his rivals away in no uncertain fashion twelve months ago.  Don’t listen to too much talk of that race having been contested of soft ground, as Rod Millman’s Mastercraftsman raider has won on the course under good conditions as well. Carrying two pounds less on this occasion, Red’s seven-year-old demands Placepot respect at the very least, especially as 7/1 was still on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 23 favourites have secured Placepot positions in recent times, though only three market leaders have won down the relevant years.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

5-3-6-19 (20 ran-soft)

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of the course winner in the field:

2/4—Master Carpenter (good & soft)

 

4.35: Ryan Moore has a number of each way chances on the card, arguably none more so than CRAFTY MADAM in this contest.  Given Ryan’s 6/18 record for Clive Cox down the years, CRAFTY MADAM is the first name on the team sheet ahead of other PEPITA and a potential each way player in IFUBELIEVEINDREAMS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 4/1, 7/2 & 11/4.  Detectives are still searching for the unplaced favourite that was sunk without trace.

York record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Dark Intention (good to soft)

 

5.05: 23/38 horses to have gained Placepot positions (via eleven renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (jockey claims are taken into account) in a sixteen strong field, potentially at least. KODITIME (another Cox/Moore runner on the card), AREEN FAISAL and MARNIE JAMES get the vote.

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-1-14 (12 ran-soft)

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Marnie James (good to firm)

1/3—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th April

AINTREE – APRIL 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)

Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)

Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2

Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1

Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)

Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)

Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations.  This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:

1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)

1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)

1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon.  That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Lalor (good)

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected.  There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)

 

3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest.  Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sizing Granite

 

4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests.  Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Ultragold (good)

2/6—Eastlake (good soft)

1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX.  Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 13th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.30 Taunton : Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Led until 7th, lost 2nd before 3 out, soon weakened)

And now to Friday's...

2.50 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Grade 1,  3m1f novice chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?

This five year old gelding is making only his fourth start today and finishing 112 in his previous three outings, all over fences at 2.5 miles on soft ground. He was beaten by seven lengths last out, when a runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival 29 days ago. He looked a little one paced last time, so a step up in trip allied to an easing of the ground should help get him back to winning ways and continue his yard's excellent start to this year's National meeting.

That excellent start was 3 winners and 2 placers from 7 runners on Day 1 and trainer Nicky Henderson will be keen to add to a tally here at Aintree of 38 winners from 199 (19.1% SR) producing 80.9pts (+40.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with Festival runners winning 23 of 144 (16%) for 51.7pts (+35.9%). I should add that this data doesn't include the results from Day 1 : Thursday.

More generally, since the start of 2010, horses running 11-60 days after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival last time out are 133/520 (25.6% SR) for 162.6pts (+31.3% ROI), from which...

  • those running in April are 117/473 (24.7%) for 172.3pts (+36.4%)
  • those last seen 16-45 days earlier are 107/440 (24.3%) for 167.6pts (+38.1%)
  • Grade 1 runers are 78/290 (26.9%) for 34.2pts (+11.8%)
  • here at Aintree : 58/236 (24.6%) for 173.2pts (+73.4%)
  • those beaten by more than 4 lengths LTO are 32/166 (19.3%) for 89.8pts (+54.1%)
  • at trips of 2m6f to 3m4.5f : 38/153 (24.8%) for 47.5pts (+31.1%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 26/127 (20.5%) for 20.6pts (+16.2%)
  • those stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs are 37/121 (30.6%) for 78.1pts (+64.5%)
  • and those trained by Mr Henderson are 22/59 (37.3%) for 12.5pts (+21.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Blacktype (although the latter are non-BOG) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 7 (Whatswrongwithyou), 3 (Just A Sting) & 1 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Ellens Way), 7 (The Wicket Chicken) & 1 (Whauduhavtoget)

Leg 3 (1.10): 6 (Connetable), 8 (Monbeg Oscar) & 1 (Beat That)

Leg 4 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 4 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 5 (2.20): 6 (Jenkins), 10 (Exitas) & 8 (Fidux)

Leg 6 (2.55): 3 (Fox Norton) & 5 (Politologue)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 18 years (see below).   Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the last eleven renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured seven of the last eight renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner three years ago defied belief!  I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living.  That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast.  Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many Tote punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race.  Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of WHATSWRONGWITHYOU jumps off the page.  If the four and five-year-olds are to dominate again however, the chances of the four-year-old representatives JUST A STING (Harry Fry saddled the winner last year) and AINCHEA are there to be seen via the form book.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 18 renewals, with 15 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  16/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 15 years.

 

12.40: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out.  Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include the trio of winners at 14/1, 5/1 & 7/2.  Four of the five representatives this year seemingly hold chances of extending the trend, the pick of which will hopefully prover to be ELLENS WAY, THE WICKET CHICKEN and WHATDUHAVTOGET.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1.  Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) the following year, though the 7/2 market leader prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Loves Destination (heavy)

 

1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of CONNETABLE is respected, especially as Paul’s winners scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1.  Paul has secured three of the last nine renewals where his five-year-old gelding could be the value for money call, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  The vintage stat also brings MONBEG OSCAR into the equation, with the highly rated five pound claimer Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle.  Jonjo O’Neill will be slightly embarrassed by his 2/50 strike rate at Sandown during the last five years I’ll wager, whereby his only runner on the card (Terry The Fish) is swerved by yours truly, preferring BEAT THAT who represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled no less than 11 winners (yes eleven) at this corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last five years!
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), stats which include three winning favourites.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Connetable (soft)

1.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase event with the trainer represented by five-year-old Capitaine on this occasion. Vintage representatives have won five of the last seven contests whereby once again, Paul has shown his appreciation for statistics which have not let him down so far in his career!  That said, this looks a tough (and intriguing) renewal, with BRAIN POWER, FINIAN’S OSCAR and NORTH HILL HARVEY all boasting obvious claim for one reason or another.  There is a nagging notion that this event might just run the feet off Finian’s Oscar, whereby I will opt for the other pair, without totally discarding the chance of the fifth runner in the field (Sceau Royal) in any shape of form.  A typically wonderful Sandown event which demonstrates perfectly why this racecourse runs Cheltenham so close to being my favourite NH venue.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in three of the last four years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (soft)

2.20: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last sixteen renewals.  FIDUX is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes (thanks to a jockey claim), though Alan King has been struggling for gold medallists of late (recent stats of 1/32) whereby JENKINS is preferred in terms of naming the actual winner.  Nicky Henderson looks to have laid out his five-year-old Azamour gelding for this contest and with the trainer having saddled four of the last seven winners, JENKINS is my each way nap on the card.  A winner of three of his six races to date (2/4 over timber), JENKINS looks to have plenty going for him and the 7/1 quotes by Betfair and Paddy Power make for attractive reading.  I do not anticipate that price being available by the time that the phones start ringing in their respective offices later this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from EXITAS if taking Alan King’s recent negative winning record into account.  Crossed My Mind is the ‘unknown factor’ in the field but I would rather stick closer to home given the potential of Jenkins, especially as Nicky won this with a particularly progressive type in Brain Power twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned in single figures.  Eight of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/1—Exitas (soft)

2.55: Three of the last five winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season, whilst last year’s Gold Medallist was aimed at the ‘Ryanair’ at the festival and Un De Sceaux duly obliged.  Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 17 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 12) and the stable is represented by POLITOLOGUE on this occasion, though it would a big surprise if FOX NORTON failed to become the fourth seven-year-old to win this event in what would be the last nine years.  Colin Tizzard’s raider put on a masterclass at Cheltenham the last day despite looking as though the run would put him 100% right and whatever scope Paul’s horse has for improvement, it’s unlikely to upset favourite backers here, albeit I expect POLIOLOGUE to account for the other five entries, the best of which should prove to be CHARBEL is you want to have a speculative each way punt to small stakes.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 17 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Our Mad (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five year totals of winners at this corresponding ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting:

7—Paul Nicholls (6 winners)

5—Nicky Henderson (11)

4—Alan King (2)

3—Harry Fry (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Dan Skelton

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey

2—Chris Gordon

2—Phil Middleton (1)

2—Jeremy Scott

2—Evan Williams

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £637.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chepstow: £91.80 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Wetherby: £57.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverh’ton: £236.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2017

Friday's Result :

1.30 Fontwell : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Behind, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, every chance 2 out, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 1.25 lengths.

Next up is Saturday's...

2.15 Aintree

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good to Soft ground worth £46,425 to the winner.

..and an 8 yr old gelding trained by Dan Skelton, whose horses are in fine fettle right now with 9 winners and 11 placers from his 27 runners so far this month.

This 33.3% win strike rate has yielded 22.95pts profit at an ROI of 85% and with an overall place strike rate of some 74.1%, those numbers could have been even better with a bit more luck.

Of those 27 runners so far this month, 20 have been ridden by Harry Skelton, which has brought about 8 winners (40% SR) and 27.43pts profit at a return of 137.15% and today the Skeltons team up with a horse who has already won 6 of his 12 starts with another couple of placed efforts for good measure and he seems ideal for this contest today, because he is...

  • 5 wins + 2 places from 11 under Harry Skelton (3+2/7 in chases)
  • 6+1/10 going left handed (3+1/5 in chases)
  • 6/7 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (3/4 in chases)
  • 4+1/7 at 2m3f/2m4f (1+1/3 in chases)
  • 3+2/7 in chases
  • 6/6 as fav/jt fav (3/3 in chases)
  • 4/5 in handicaps (1/1 in chases)
  • 3/5 here at Aintree (1/2 in chases)
  • 4/4 at Class 2 (2/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 after a break of 4 months or longer (1/1 in chases)
  • 1+1/2 on Good to Soft ground (both chases)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 29th October

AINTREE - OCTOBER 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £151.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Global Citizen), 3 (Aye Aye Charlie) & 10 (New Quay)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Monsieur Arkadin), 1 (Verygoodverygood) & 5 (Another Frontier)

Leg 3 (1.50): 5 (Call Me Vic), 14 (Bob Tucker) & 8 (Masters Hill)

Leg 4 (2.25): 13 (Stamp Your Feet), 11 (Caius Marcius) & 15 (Return Flight)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Smad Place), 4 (Aso) & 6 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 6 (3.55): 7 (Ballyarthur) & 5 (Some Are Lucky)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Jonjo’s chasers are normally the horses I home in on from the stable, particularly here at Aintree.  On this occasion however GLOBAL CITIZEN commands centre stage having hacked up by seven lengths on his Worcester debut in a bumper following a successful sortie between the flags. AYE AYE CHARLIE catches the eye at the trade press quote of 14/1, whilst NEW QUAY completes my trio against the field ahead of On The Blind Side from a potential value for money perspective.

Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 3/1 joint favourites finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest, before last year’s even money market leader snared a Placepot position by finishing second.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.15: Six-year-olds have ruled the roost thus far, even though only three renewals of the second race on the card have been contested.  Vintage representatives make up the four winners of the race to date, given that two six-year-olds could not be split by the judge two years ago.  Vintage raiders are 9/4 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with the pick of this year’s relevant declarations hopefully proving to be MONSIEUR ARKADIN and the Twiston-Davies pair VERYGOODVERYGOOD and ANOTHER FRONTIER.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot position by winning their respective events, albeit one of the gold medallists dead heated when sharing the main prize.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Chicoria (good)

 

1.50: Ten-year-olds have won seven of the nine renewals of this Veterans' Handicap Chase, with Nigel Twiston-Davies trainer having snared gold on three occasions.  The two vintage representatives that really catch my attention here are course winner CALL ME VIC and BOB TUCKER.  No horse older than eleven years of age has won this contest, a factor that goes against last year’s winner Shuil Royale from my viewpoint, though that does not rule Harry Fry’s raider out of the Placepot equation of course, albeit I give MASTERS HILL the slight edge this time around.  Nigel’s two runners fail to light the blue touch paper on this occasion, though I expect Benbens to at least figure prominently until the taps are turned on.

Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have claimed Placepot position to date, statistics which include two (3/1 & 15/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Shuil Royale (good)

1/3—Call Me Vic (good)

1/6—Benbens (good)

1/9—Astracad (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/7—Baileys Concerto (good)

 

2.25: All five available Placepot positions have been gained by horses carrying a maximum burden of eleven stones, the winners having scored at 25/1 & 11/1. Rightly or wrongly (after such a brief history) I am eliminating the top nine horses in the handicap, opting for the trio of STAMP YOUR FEET, CAIUS MARCIUS and RETURN FLIGHT.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BOBO MAC.

Favourite factor:  The inaugural 6/4 market leader lost out (by a length) to an 11/2 chance, before last year’s 11/4 favourite suffered the same fate, albeit Placepot positions were gained on both occasions.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the Aintree card:

1/2—Massini’s Trap (good)

2/7—Clondaw Kaempfer (good to soft & soft)

 

3.00: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 11 stones to victory, with SMAD PLACE and ASO making plenty of each way appeal between them for different reasons. The first named Alan King raider has won half of his eight races at this time of year and there was recent evidence (via a video) that all was well with Alan King’s ten-year-old in the lead up to this event.  Conversely, ASO is only a seven-year-old and might still have some untapped potential lurking under the saddle and with Venetia Williams have secured a winner the other day, now is the time that the popular trainer really gets her act together.  If you want proof of that statement, try and remember to take a look at next Saturday’s Ascot stats which explain what I mean.  Trevor Hemmings is a trainer whose colours have been worn by so many winners down the years here at Aintree, including victories in the Grand National of course.  Trevor is represented by the Malcolm Jefferson trained CLOUDY DREAM who just gets the vote ahead of Shantou Village from those towards the head of the market.

Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed during the last decade in this Grade 2 contest, whilst just four of the 14 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the extended study period of twelve years.

Record of course winners in the ‘Old Roan’:

1/4—God’s Own

1/1—Tea For Two (good)

1/4—Royal Regatta (good)

1/5—Third Intention (good)

2/4—Ballybolly (2 x good to soft)

 

3.35: BALLYARTHUR is a typically consistent Twiston-Davies representative who could really blossom over fences and whilst this is his debut over the larger obstacles under NH rules, it’s worth noting that he has already won ‘between the flags’ in a point to point event.  Tom George does better than most with his runners at this venue (see stats below) whereby SOME ARE LUCKY is nominated as the main danger to the selection.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘dead eight’ contest.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Perform (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Aintree card on Sunday with five year stats + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tom George (10/55 +39)

6—Nigel Twiston-Davies (10/83 – loss of 17 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (10/90 – loss of 17 points)

4—Dan Skelton (7/54 – loss of 23 points)

4—Colin Tizzard (10/35 +95)

4—Ian Williams (1/18 – loss of 13 points)

3—Malcolm Jefferson (2/17 +1)

3—Alan King (6/65 – loss of 20 points)

3—Donald McCain 5/114 – loss of 83 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (0/20)

3—Ben Pauling (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

3—Sue Smith (0/31)

2—Henry De Bromhead (1/21 – loss of 15 points)

2—Rebecca Curtis (5/54 – loss of 35 points)

2—Harry Fry (3/29 – loss 9 points)

2—Alex Hales (0/1)

2—Lisa Harrison (0/5)

2—Nicky Henderson (23/126 +18)

2—Emma Lavelle (1/18 – loss of 8 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (3/51 – loss of 41 points)

2—James Moffat (1/7 +14)

2—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 2 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/20 +2)

2—J A Nash (2/11 +17)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (12/92 – loss of 29 points)

2—Paul Nicholls (14/132 – loss of 44 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (4/34 – loss of 1 point)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

99 declared runners

 

Placepot dividend at Wincanton last year:

£393.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday May 19

YORK – MAY 19 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,255.52 - Favourites stats - 37 in total - 14 winners - 9 placed - 14 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Maggies Angel), 9 (Izzy Bizu) & 5 (Faithful Promise)

Leg 2 (2.55): 3 (Dancing Breeze), 5 (On Her Toes) & 7 (Sibilance)

Leg 3 (3.30): 3 (Dartmouth), 6 (Muntahaa) & 1 (Clever Cookie)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Gibbs Hill) & 4 (Southdown Lad)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Carolinae), 1 (Shypen) & 8 (Nouvelli Dancer)

Leg 6 (5.05): 3 (Justanotherbottle), 7 (Savannah’s Dream) & 9 (Computable)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 though on the negative side, only Richard Fahey has saddled two winners to date.  The last of those was his 33/1 gold medallist Vona twelve months ago, with MAGGIES ANGEL having been given the green light by the trainer this time around. Mark Johnston secured a 2,956/1 four timer on the corresponding card two years ago, and his two outsiders IZZY BIZU and FAITHFUL PROMISE are added into the mix. NEOLA receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Five of the 13 favourites (twelve renewals) have obliged to date, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via eleven renewals during the last twelve years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  That said, DANCING BREEZE (John Gosden) and ON HER TOES (William Haggas) hail from stable which have already posted winners at the meeting this week and their chances are respected.  Ralph Beckett has a winning way when handling fillies and I doubt that SIBILANCE will be far away at the business end of proceedings.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the twelve favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-7 – 7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ and I will simply be looking to get through the toteplacepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Last year’s winner CLEVER COOKIE does not appear to know how to run a bad race (whatever the conditions), though it looks as though connections of Peter Niven's nine-year-old warrior will have to settle for place money, with the likes of MUNTAHAA and DARTMOUTH having been entered this year.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/8—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (four-year-olds have won the other four contests), whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won nine of the last thirteen contests.  Two of the four-year-old  ‘qualifiers’ this time with ticks in both of the vintage/weight trend boxes are listed in order of preference as GIBBS HILL and SOUTHDOWN LAD.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

4.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-3 via just nine available Placepot positions to date.  Charlie Fellowes (four of his last six runners have won) saddles the lone five-year-old in the field, namely CAROLINAE with Ryan Moore noted having been booked to ride.  Others for the mix include SHYPEN and NOUVELLI DANCER whose trainer David Griffiths is also in sparkling form right now.

Favourite factor: The first two favourites prevailed before last year’s third market leader was sunk without (Placepot) trace.

York record of runners in the fifth event on the card:

1/3—Lil Sophella (good to firm)

 

5.05: 21/35 horses to have gained toteplacepot positions (via ten renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with seven qualifying runners to consider this time around (before jockey claims are taken into account) in a fouteen strong field. JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, SANANNAH’S DREAM and COMPUTABLE get the vote.

Favourite factor: Two of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Angel Meadow (good)

1/2—Tahoo (good to firm)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday – followed by Wednesday/Thursday winners + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (1/14 – winner at 5/1)

5—Mark Johnston (1/6 – winner at 10/1)

3—Ralph Beckett (0/2)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/5)

2—Michael Appleby (0/1)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Karl Burke (0/1)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (0/1)

2—Tom Easterby (0/6)

2—James Given (0/1)

2—John Gosden (1/3 – winner at 4/7*)

2—David O’Meara (2/12—winners at 25/1 & 20/1)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/9)

2—Roger Varian (0/4)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 runners stood their ground at the time of writing

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hamilton: £17.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Newbury: £218.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Newmarket: £3,103.80 – 7 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Aintree: £51.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Saturday April 8

AINTREE – APRIL 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £697.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 4 (Whataknight), 12 (For Good Measure) & 6 (Golden Doyen)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Finian’s Oscar) & 10 (Lough Derg Spirit)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Charbel) & 4 (San Benedeto)

Leg 4 (3.40): 9 (Value At Risk), 12 (Relentless Dreamer), 13 (Rightdownthemiddle) & 17 (Taking Risks)

Leg 5 (4.20): 12 (Yanworth) & 4 (Different Gravey)

Leg 6 (5.15): 22 (One For Arthur), 13 (The Young Master), 10 (Blacklion), 29 (Vicente) & 4 (Perfect Candidate)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last eleven years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of GOLDEN DOYEN, WHATAKNIGHT and FOR GOOD MEASURE who is included in the mix, despite sitting sixteen ounces the wrong side of the superior weight barrier.  I dined out for many months on the success of SPLASH OF GINGE when Nigel’s raider won the Betfair Hurdle a few years ago (offered as the only bet of the day at 33/1) and though he is not the force of old, Splash Of Ginge keeps catching my eye every time I peruse the list, something which has not happened for the thick end of two years.  The course winner might just have preferred a little more juice in the ground however.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the fourteen favourites during the last eleven have secured toteplacpot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/6—Zarkandar (good & good to soft)

1/4—Splash Of Ginge (soft)

1/7—Holywell (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and FINIAN’S OSCAR and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT are marginally preferred to LE BREUIL in another fascinating contest.  I would applaud a victory for the last named Ben Pauling raider who hails from a stable which has enjoyed a fine season despite the loss of service of Barters Hill who could have added the icing on the cake this season.  FINIAN’S OSCAR is unbeaten which tilts the balance in his favour over Nicky Henderson’s LOUGH DERG SPIRIT from my viewpoint, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 18 years, whilst 13 of the 18 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions. Going back further in time, 16/39 renewals to date have been won by favourites (41% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—La Bague Au Roi (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured five of the last six renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that CHARBEL will not be running at full speed when negotiating his fences as he was doing when falling when trying to keep tabs on Altior in the ‘Arkle’ at Cheltenham recently.  This lesser test should enable Kim Bailey’s raider to remain in second gear until they turn for home and even then, David Bass should have enough in hand of his four rivals without having to ‘go for broke’ at the last fence.  I’m torn between the Nicholls pair in terms of the forecast call (if the race pans out that way) but I will opt for SAN BENEDETO who won well at Ascot on decent ground last week, conditions which obviously suit this eight time winner.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 14 of the last 15 winners carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won six of the last 16 contests.  Four horses possess ticks in both of the trend boxes and the pick of the quartet will hopefully prove to be VALUE AT RISK and RELENTLESS DREAMER.  TAKINGRISKS is the third option, whilst another low weighted horse to consider is RIGHTDOWNTHEMIDDLE.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 17 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/3—Starchitect (good)

1/4—Thomas Brown (good to soft)

 

4.20: YANWORTH splits opinion like few other horses in training right now but if he is ever to prove himself once and for all as a rattling good horse, this is surely his opportunity.  Yes, Alan King’s seven-year-old wanders into unknown territory over this longer distance but that said, Yanworth ran Yorkhill to less than two lengths at the Cheltenham Festival last year over his longest trip to date.  Although this is a Grade 1 event, the contest offers others horses who also flatter to deceive on occasions, whereby Yanworth should be able to breeze into the race turning for home on the final circuit, albeit he enters my ‘last chance saloon’ at this level today.  As a winner of five of his nine races thus far, the 20/1 quote I have seen in a place about DIFFERENT GRAVEY suggests that he could be the alternative each way option against the favourite.  That said, he failed to figure prominently in this race last year but then again, Yanworth is no Thistlecrack whatever happens today.

Favourite factor: 12 favourites have won during the last 22 years (54.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured toteplacepot position in each of the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—Ballyoptic (soft)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 21 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last six contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 34 contests (29.4% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 33 renewals.  Irish trainers have won six of the last 18 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  25 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--eight unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies.  As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, ONE FOR ARTHUR gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that ONE FOR ARTHUR has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them, having gained the thick end of his 67 winners to date over the bigger obstacles (fences as opposed to hurdles). Trainer Lucinda Russell has saddled two hundred winners boasting a fine career without being one of the ‘headline names’.  Owner Trevor Hemmings (VECENTE) has been one of the luckiest owners in the history of the great race and having bought Vicente to represent the yellow, green and white colours recently, Trevor is in with a fine chance of gaining further success. Paul Nicholls ‘stole’ the Trainers’ Championship from Nicky Henderson a few years ago by saddling the winner of this event and history could repeat itself here. Brian Hughes has become the ‘darling of the north’ in the saddle in the NH sector and no other jockey would be given a warmer reception should Brian prevail in the biggest race on the calendar. As the name implies, BLACKLION is as tough and as game as they come and there will be few horses (if any) willing to put themselves on the line like the eight-year-old. Nigel Twiston-Davies has already saddled two winners of this great event and BLACKLION can gain further prize money for the trainer. Noel Fehily is one of the most stylish jockeys in the weighing room and BLACKLION will lack nothing from the saddle. BLACKLION is three pounds better in with Vieux Lion Rouge having been beaten three and a quarter lengths by David Pipe’s raider at Haydock recently. The turnaround in the weight is likely to give BLACKLION the edge from my viewpoint, especially as his fighting spirit will hold him in good stead at Aintree. Sam Waley-Cohen (THE YOUNG MASTER) has already ridden two horses to winning effect over the Grand National course, notwithstanding a Cheltenham Gold Cup victory during his ‘part time’ career in the saddle. THE YOUNG MASTER once posted eight victories via a nine race period, albeit the eight-year-old lost one of prizes due to a technicality. Trainer Neil Mulholland has been one of the success stories of the season and it would come as no surprise if THE YOUNG MASTER figured prominently.  CAUSE OF CAUSES will be a popular choice and there is no doubting his recent form which looks to give the horse a decent chance. Two things could go against the nine-year-old however, as the Gordon Elliott trained raider could have too much ground to make up on the second circuit as he often gets out of his ground early doors in his races. The other point worth making is that in his first race over cross country fences, CAUSE OF CAUSES spat out the dummy before going on to run fine races over the discipline of late. The first sight of the National fences might have the same effect.  Few (underrated) trainers can get a horse ready for a big race like Fergal O’Brien whereby PERFECT CANDIDATE is the potential fly in the ointment on behalf of the outsiders in this year’s renewal. At around the 50/1 mark at the time of writing, Perfect CANDIDATE will have ground to his liking, whereby Paddy Brennan’s could easily outrun his odds.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last twelve years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 10 of the 23 favourites during the last 14 years have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Grand National over the big fences:

1/2—Vieux Lion Rouge (good to soft)

1/3—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Aintree card on Saturday (winning Grand National trainers listed in brackets):

11 runners—Paul Nicholls (1 winner at 33/1)

5—Donald McCain (1 winner at 14/1)

5—Jonjo O’Neill (1 winner at 10/1**)

5—David Pipe (1 winner at 7/1**)

5—Dan Skelton

4—Rebecca Curtis

4—Gordon Elliott (1 winner at 33/1)

4—Brian Ellison

4—Nicky Henderson

4—Philip Hobbs

4—Noel Meade

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 winners at 20/1 & 7/1*)

3—Peter Bowen

3—Alan King

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey (1 winner at 16/1)

2—Henry De Bromhead

2—Gavin Cromwell

2—Harry Fry

2—Tom George

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Patrick Griffin

2—Anthony Honeyball

2—Kerry Lee

2—Charlie Longsdon

2—Gary Moore

2—Mouse Morris (1 winner at 33/1)

2—Dr Richard Newland (1 winner at 25/1)

2—Fergal O’Brien

2—Ben Pauling

2—Nicky Richards

2—Sue Smith (1 winner at 66/1)

2—Ian Williams

2—Venetia Williams (1 winner at 100/1)

Oliver Sherwood has one runner on the card having saddled a 25/1 winner of the Grand National, whilst Willie Mullins is in the same camp having secured a 7/1* success.

129 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £29.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle (NH): £55.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £48.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £197.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday April 6

AINTREE – APRIL 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £13.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Top Notch) & 1 (Cloudy Dream)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Defi Du Seuil) & 3 (Divin Bere)

Leg 3 (2.50): 3 (Cue Card), 2 (Bristol De Mai) & 4 (Empire Of Dirt)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 6 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.05): 19 (On The Fringe), 14 (Mendip Express), 20 (Pacha Du Polder) & 21 (Poole Master)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Bun Doran), 11 (Yorkist), 14 (Raven’s Tower) & 10 (Romain De Senam)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by TOP NOTCH on this occasion.  Nicky’s fine prospect has done next to nothing wrong to date and though these fences will come by at a furious pace today, I expect Top Notch to pass the test with flying colours.  That said, Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last six years (no gold medallists last year though), Paul having saddled eight winners during the period.  Paul has declared FRODON and though the five-year-old looks to have plenty on here, Paul’s runners will be fine-tuned this week with the trainers’ championship in mind. CLOUDY DREAM looks the main danger to the selection however, though I was somewhat taken aback by seeing TOP NOTCH as a projected odds against favourite in the trade press, believing Nicky’s raider to be a 4/5 chance personally as his conqueror at Cheltenham (Yorkhill) would surely have been put in at around 2/5 has he been in the field instead of Nicky’s representative.

Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via eight renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All eight winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Max Ward (good)

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race two years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader.  Nicky will have been hoping that this year got off to a better start in the first race but either way, stable representative DIVIN BERE deserves his place in the field here, albeit a forecast position is probably the best that connections can hope for with the Triumph winner DEFI DU SEUIL having been declared.  Philip Hobbs was an emotional wreck of a man (wonderful to witness) following the victory of his outstanding raider in the opening race on Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and there is every chance that DEFI DU SEUIL will be the fourth horse since the turn of the Millennium to achieve the double in the relevant two races at these spring festivals.  The Queen’s colours could be seen in the unsaddling enclosure after the race as FORTH BRIDGE boasts realistic place claims.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last twelve contests, with ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  Nine winners during the last twelve years were returned at 13/2 or less.

 

2.50: I’m sure we can all recall the cheers when CUE CARD proved his doubters wrong in this event twelve months ago having fully recovered from the fall in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.  We are in exactly the same position this year of course, though with another twelve months having slipped by, there has to be a chance that this will be a more difficult task.  That said, this track seems to suit Colin Tizzard’s raider and his legion of fans probably won’t hear of defeat.  I would be seriously worried by BRISTOL DE MAI if I thought he could put in a clear round of fencing, whilst the chance EMPIRE OF DIRT cannot be ignored, especially with the ten-year-old being Gordon Elliott’s only runner on the card.  I suspect that this might be the last Championship race for Silviniaco Conti though whatever the result, this admirably consistent chaser deserves a free tilt at yet another top notch event as he does not owe anyone a penny in the sport.

Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years though that said, twelve winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.  Four of the last eight favourites have finished out of the frame.

Aintree record of course winners in the third race:

2/5—Cue Card (2 x good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

3/5—Silviniaco Conti 2 x good & good to soft)

 

3.25: Providing he stays the trip well enough (his pedigree suggests he will), this should something of a stroll in the park for the Champion Hurdle winner BUVEUR D’AIR who was powering up the hill when scoring at Prestbury Park three weeks ago.  His only hurdle defeat came when finishing third in last year’s ‘Supreme’ via six assignments over timber and unless THE NEW ONE can rekindle the flame of yesteryear, BUVEUR D’AIR should run out an impressive winner.  THE NEW ONE should have his favoured ground by the time that flag fall arrives, with IDENTITY CHIEF nominated as the other potential forecast option.

Favourite factor: Only five favourites have won during the last 21 years, though 11 of the last 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:

1/2—Buveur D’Air (soft)

1/3—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)

2/4—The New One (2 x good)

 

4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below).  12 of the last 14 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE, PACHA DU POLDER and last year’s bronze medallist MENDIP EXPRESS.  If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, POOLE MASTER could give you a decent run for your money at around the 22/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 25 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last six winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/2—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)

1/6—Poole Master (good to soft)

1/6—Rebel Rebellion (soft)

 

4.40: Ten of the last eleven (and 13 of the last 15) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby BUN DORAN, YORKIST and RAVEN’S TOWER form my overnight short list.   The reserve nomination is awarded to ROMAIN DE SENAM who has been dropped five pounds for a recent disappointing effort.  It is hardly surprising that this competitive toteplacepot finale has recently produced twelve different winning trainers in as many years.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last fifteen contests, whilst 10 of the 17 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  That said, five of the last nine gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.

Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Theinval (good to soft)

3/5—Parsnip Pete (2 x good & good to soft)

1/1—Reven’s Tower (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Aintree card on Thursday (Prices in brackets of their winners at Aintree this season):

6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3 winners: 5/1, 4/1* & 7/4**)

5—Nicky Henderson

4—Tom George (4 winners: 33/1, 7/1, 7/2 & Evens*)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1 winner: 9/1)

3—Nick Williams

2—Mickey Bowen

2—Henry De Bromhead

2—Warren Greatrex (1 winner: 4/1)

2—Philip Hobbs

2—Malcolm Jefferson

2—Charlie Longsdon

2—Ben Pauling (1 winner: 9/2)

2—Dan Skelton (1 winner: 5/2)

+ 51 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: £59.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell: £41.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £169.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced