Posts

2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 6th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2019 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 6th April 2019 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 6th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: BLACK OP (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Noel Fehily

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
14/16 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/16 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 9 favs have won)
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
17 of the last 21 (81%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 15 (53%) runnings between them
6 of the last 9 runnings went to a 5 year-old

3.00pm – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2018 Winner: DIEGO DU CHARMIL (5/1 odds)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
16/16 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
16/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/16 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/16 – Ridden by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/16 – Irish-trained winners
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
2/16 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 6 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 24 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 10 winners were French bred

3.40pm – Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: IDENTITY THIEF (14/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Sean Flanagan

14/15 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/15 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/15 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/15 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
10/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Won their last race
8/15 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/15 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 15 (87%) had run at this meeting before
13 of the last 15 (87%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 10 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 10 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

 

4.20pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2018 Winner: THOMAS PATRICK (3/1 fav odds)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Richard Johnson

14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/16 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Unplaced in their last race
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 20 winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 15 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 42 runnings
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners were rated between 134 and 140

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)
·  27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

    • Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
    • 10 of the last 11 winners were having their first start in the race
    • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
    • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
    • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
    • 12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
    • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
    • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
    • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
    • 5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
    • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals
    • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
    • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
    • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)

15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously
14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago
14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/16 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Experienced the National fences
6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/16 – Won by the McCain yard

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 5th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 5th April 2019 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 5th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2018 Winner: LALOR (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Kayley Woollacott
Jockey: Richard Johnson

15/16 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/16 – Finished first or second last time out
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/16 – Had raced on the flat before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1978
9 of the last 19 (47%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

2018 Winner: TERREFORT (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
7/16 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
29 of the last 30 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 28 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

201 Winner: POLITOLOGUE (11/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

16/16 – Raced within the last 30 days
16/16 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
15/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
10/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
21 of the last 28 (75%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
30 of the last 33 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 28 (68%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
26 of the last 28 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2018 Winner: ULTRAGOLD (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

15/16 – Raced within the last 34 days
15/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/16 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last 5 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 13 (62%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 15 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 26 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: SANTINI (6/4 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/16 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (88%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 19 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Stat of the Day, 5th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.55 Southwell : Dolly Dupree @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, never on terms)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Champ 11/4 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Grade 1, Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good to Soft/Soft worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has never been out of the first two home so far, winning 5 of 8 starts including...

  • 4/6 over hurdles, 4/5 going left handed & 4/5 as favourite
  • 4/6 on Good to Soft/Soft, 2/4 in Novice Hurdles
  • 3/3 carrying 11-04 to 11-06, 2/3 within 14-28 days of his last run
  • 2/3 under Barry Geraghty and 1/2 at Grade 1.

His trainer, Nicky Henderson, is 29/132 (22% SR) for 82.5pts (+62.5% ROI) over hurdles here at Aintree since 2012, from which...

  • those running at the National meeting are 17/91 (18.7%) for 50.7pts (+55.7%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days : 20/90 (22.2%) for 62.5pts (+69.4%)
  • on Good to Soft / Soft ground : 16/72 (22.2%) for 17.6pts (+24.4%)
  • in non-handicaps : 18/67 (26.9%) for 13.4pts (+19.9%)
  • those who ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO are 13/55 (23.6%) for 56.8pts (+103.3%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 21/53 (39.6%) for 57pts (+107.5%)

And more generally...Since 2010, horses finishing in the first three home at the Cheltenham Festival who are then sent straight to the Aintree National Meeting have won 63 of 262 (24.1% SR) for 172.7pts (+65.9% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • non-hcps : 53/179 (29.6%) for 72.8pts (+40.7%)
  • at Grade 1 : 41/150 (27.3%) for 57.7pts (+38.5%)
  • hurdlers are 34/121 (28.1%) for 109pts (+90.1%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 22/105 (21%) for 56.2pts (+53.5%)
  • and those trained by Nicky Henderson are 19/46 (41.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Champ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.10 Yarmouth : Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

We continue with Friday's...

7.55 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

We have a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 3 handicap chase up at Perth last time out (12 days ago), when making all en route to a 13 lengths success under today's jockey and regular rider Harry Reed. This took his chasing record to 5 wins and 6 places from 20 attempts, a decent record that includes...

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 16 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for trainer Tim Reed
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for jockey Harry Reed
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 on Good ground
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 carrying 11st 13lbs
  • 2 from 2 in June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 wearing cheekpieces...

...and Tim / Harry Reed + Class 3 + Good ground + 6-9 runners = 3/3 (100% SR) for 22.5pts (+750% ROI), including 2/2 in June, 1/1 carrying 11-12 and 1/1 in cheekpieces.

More generally, since the start of 2013 in UK Class 3 handicap chases at trips shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description, male runners who won a handicap chase last time out 6 to 20 days earlier are 78 from 334 (23.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+21.4% ROI) from which the following are relevant today...

  • those who won by more than 2 lengths LTO are 57/215 (26.5%) for 74.4pts (+34.6%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 won 52 of 198 (26.3%) for 51.6pts (+26.1%)
  • those racing on Good ground are 45/188 (23.9%) for 24.1pts (+12.8%)
  • those who are running at the same class as LTO are 33/148 (22.3%) for 31.4pts (+21.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f/2m : 13/38 (34.2%) for 27.8pts (+73.2%)
  • and this year alone : 6/18 (33.3%) for 6.64pts (+36.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOGwhich was widely available from Betbright, Betfair, Coral, Paddy Power & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.30 Taunton : Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Led until 7th, lost 2nd before 3 out, soon weakened)

And now to Friday's...

2.50 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Grade 1,  3m1f novice chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?

This five year old gelding is making only his fourth start today and finishing 112 in his previous three outings, all over fences at 2.5 miles on soft ground. He was beaten by seven lengths last out, when a runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival 29 days ago. He looked a little one paced last time, so a step up in trip allied to an easing of the ground should help get him back to winning ways and continue his yard's excellent start to this year's National meeting.

That excellent start was 3 winners and 2 placers from 7 runners on Day 1 and trainer Nicky Henderson will be keen to add to a tally here at Aintree of 38 winners from 199 (19.1% SR) producing 80.9pts (+40.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with Festival runners winning 23 of 144 (16%) for 51.7pts (+35.9%). I should add that this data doesn't include the results from Day 1 : Thursday.

More generally, since the start of 2010, horses running 11-60 days after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival last time out are 133/520 (25.6% SR) for 162.6pts (+31.3% ROI), from which...

  • those running in April are 117/473 (24.7%) for 172.3pts (+36.4%)
  • those last seen 16-45 days earlier are 107/440 (24.3%) for 167.6pts (+38.1%)
  • Grade 1 runers are 78/290 (26.9%) for 34.2pts (+11.8%)
  • here at Aintree : 58/236 (24.6%) for 173.2pts (+73.4%)
  • those beaten by more than 4 lengths LTO are 32/166 (19.3%) for 89.8pts (+54.1%)
  • at trips of 2m6f to 3m4.5f : 38/153 (24.8%) for 47.5pts (+31.1%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 26/127 (20.5%) for 20.6pts (+16.2%)
  • those stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs are 37/121 (30.6%) for 78.1pts (+64.5%)
  • and those trained by Mr Henderson are 22/59 (37.3%) for 12.5pts (+21.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Blacktype (although the latter are non-BOG) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2017

Friday's Result :

1.30 Fontwell : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Behind, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, every chance 2 out, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 1.25 lengths.

Next up is Saturday's...

2.15 Aintree

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good to Soft ground worth £46,425 to the winner.

..and an 8 yr old gelding trained by Dan Skelton, whose horses are in fine fettle right now with 9 winners and 11 placers from his 27 runners so far this month.

This 33.3% win strike rate has yielded 22.95pts profit at an ROI of 85% and with an overall place strike rate of some 74.1%, those numbers could have been even better with a bit more luck.

Of those 27 runners so far this month, 20 have been ridden by Harry Skelton, which has brought about 8 winners (40% SR) and 27.43pts profit at a return of 137.15% and today the Skeltons team up with a horse who has already won 6 of his 12 starts with another couple of placed efforts for good measure and he seems ideal for this contest today, because he is...

  • 5 wins + 2 places from 11 under Harry Skelton (3+2/7 in chases)
  • 6+1/10 going left handed (3+1/5 in chases)
  • 6/7 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (3/4 in chases)
  • 4+1/7 at 2m3f/2m4f (1+1/3 in chases)
  • 3+2/7 in chases
  • 6/6 as fav/jt fav (3/3 in chases)
  • 4/5 in handicaps (1/1 in chases)
  • 3/5 here at Aintree (1/2 in chases)
  • 4/4 at Class 2 (2/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 after a break of 4 months or longer (1/1 in chases)
  • 1+1/2 on Good to Soft ground (both chases)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2016

Friday's Result :

2.25 Sandown : Messire Des Obeaux @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, 3rd before not fluent 2 out, driven and one pace between last 2, rallied last, 2nd run-in, stayed on gamely to lead inside final 150 yards, held on by half a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

12.00 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Over the last fortnight, trainer Evan Williams' runners have won 8 of their 35 races, whilst today's jockey Paul Moloney is 5 from 29 in the same time, so both can be considered as being in decent nick.

They now team up with this 3 yr old who has won two of her last three starts, including a win on her hurdling debut over 2m1f at Exeter 13 days ago, when she was partnered by Paul Moloney for the first time.

And as well as being my fancy for this particular race, she catches the eye statistically as Evan Williams' runners who were LTO winners scored back to back successes on 43 of 177  (24.3% SR) occasions since the start of 2014, yielding level stakes profits of 141.8pts at an ROI of 184.3%, from which...

  • those who last ran within the previous 90 days are 36/145 (24.8%) for 133.3pts (+91.9%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f : 36/124 (29%) for 156.5pts (+126.2%)
  • hurdlers are 28/87 (32.2%) for 160.4pts (+184.3%)

AND...hurdlers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f within 90 days of that LTO win are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 143.9pts (+252.5% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Evening Hush at 100/30 BOG from Hills, BetVictor and/or SkyBet, as of 8.40pm on Friday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.00 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Sat TV Trends: 3rd Dec 2016

Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the C4 cameras heading to Sandown Park and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests - As always we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.

 

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.55 - Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
12/13 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won last time out
11/13 – French (8) or Irish (3) bred
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 winner)
9/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

 

2.25 - Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y CH4

12/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Raced within the last month
12/13 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Rated between 116-128
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

 

3.00 – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
12/14 – Had won a Grade One chase before
12/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
11/14 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/14 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – French bred
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8/14 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
5/14 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/14 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Sire de Grugy won the race in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.30 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Aged 7 or older
11/12 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
11/12 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
10/12 – Rated 126 or higher
10/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Unplaced favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/12 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/12 – Trained by Tom George
1/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

 


Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.35 - Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

11/14 – Irish bred winners
11/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
11/14 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or older
11/14 – Officially rated between 123-138
10/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/14 – Had no more than 1 start that season
9/14 – Had raced at Aintree before
9/14 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
5/14 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/14 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
Highland Lodge won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993


2.10 - Betfred "Home Of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f CH4

10/12 - Carried 10-9 or more in weight
9/12 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 - Aged 6 or younger
9/12 – Rated 123 or higher
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/12 – Had won over at last 2m4f before
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before (3 had won there before)
7/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – French (4) or Irish (3) bred
6/12 - Winning favourites
2/12 - Trained by Peter Bowen
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton
Trainer Dan Skelton & Nicky Henderson have trained the last 4 winners between them
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1


2.40 - Betfred Lotto "£100K Cash Giveaway" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m210y CH4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
3/5 – Winning favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/2
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 34 (6%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes is only 3 from 38 riding over fences here


3.15 - Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/11 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
10/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 124 or more
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
8/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Had run at Aintree before (3 over the GN style fences)
more
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Won last time out
1/11 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
Bennys Mist won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Darebin - I have always thought a lot of this horse but very disappointing last time. First-time blinkers today and if he can put his last run behind him - was his first for over 6 months - should have a decent chance. E/W price."
Gary Moore

29/11/16 1st 12/1

"Kassis is still nicely handicapped and should go well today back over hurdles with the trip and conditions to suit we hope for a good run."
Jamie Snowden

27/11/16 1st 5/1

"Pensax Lady won well last time out and remains in good form at home coming out of the race well. This looks a bit more competitive than the race she won but we hope that she can go close again!"
Mark Loughnane

26/11/16 2nd 7/1

"Win Lose Draw, Down to lowest handicap mark and with Ali's claim then we look to have a fair chance. Decent draw in 2 and we put the cheekpieces on for the first time. We think they will help and has a fair amount of experience of this track. Not the best-looking race and we should be open to improvement with just 7 career runs. Each-way chance."
Mick Appleby

26/11/16 1st 9/2

 

 JOIN TODAY

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2015

Friday's Result :

1.40 Exeter : St Dominick @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Held up in rear, headway 14th, chased leaders next, came wide into straight, weakened 3 out, tailed off)

Saturday's selection runs in the...

2.45 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

I've based the selection on the following trainer, horse and track stats...

Trainer Stats : Dan Skelton's NH handicappers priced at 12/1 or shorter have won 85 of their 378 races (22.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 54.9pts at an ROI of 14.5% with a whole host of profitable angles that can be derived from those 378 runners, but with today's contest in mind...

  • hurdlers are 37/168 (22% SR) for 42.6pts (+25.4% ROI)
  • class 1 & 2 runners are 15/93 (16.1% SR) for 34.4pts (+37% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 17/88 (19.3% SR) for 37pts (+42% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 26/85 (30.6% SR) for 30.7pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 23/83 (27.7% SR) for 9.9pts (+12% ROI)
  • at this 2m4f trip : 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 24.9pts (+48.8% ROI)
  • those returning from a break of 150 to 240 days are 11/39 (28.2% SR) for 54.5pts (+139.8% ROI)
  • here at Aintree : 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+115.7% ROI)

Horse Stats : Virgilio was a course and distance winner last time out, albeit 204 days ago, taking his UK record to 2 from 2, both over hurdles, after winning on debut at Warwick on soft ground. Further evidence of him being suited by conditions is the fact that he also won over hurdles on very soft ground at Sables D'Olonne in a very beautiful part of Western France.

Also, former course and distance winners who were also LTO winners anywhere are 281 from 1443 (19.5% SR) for profits of 190pts (+13.2% ROI), which is a very decent set of figures, but can once again be improved in reference to this contest ie...

  • 5/6 yr olds are 129/569 (22.7% SR) for 157.3pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • Class 1 to 3 runners are 94/474 (19.8% SR) for 201.6pts (+42.6% ROI)
  • On soft ground or worse : 105/463 (22.7% SR) for 66.2pts (+14.4% ROI)
  • over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f : 78/377 (20.7% SR) for 136.1pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • those returning from an absence of 180 to 365 days : 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 55.1pts (+102% ROI)
  • here at Aintree : 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 14.7pts (+98.2% ROI)

And the track stats : Since the start of 2010, favourites in handicap hurdles here at Aintree have been successful on 23 of 73 occasions (31.5% SR) for profits of 21pts (+28.8% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/67 (34.3% SR) for 27pts (+40.3% ROI)
  • males are 21/63 (33.33% SR) for 21.7pts (+34.5% ROI)
  • at 2m4f : 12/35 (34.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+55.5% ROI)
  • LTO winners : 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 7.2pts (+20.6% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 17.2pts (+66.1% ROI)
  • those returning from a break of 120 to 300 days are 9/15 (60% SR) for 19.2pts (+128% ROI)
  • Dan Skelton's runners are 2 from 3 (66.7% SR) for 2.02pts (+67.4% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.15pm?

A 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 11/4 BOG, a price available with around 5 different firms at the time I posted this, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Becher Chase 2015 Preview, Trends, Tips

Becher Chase 2015 Preview, Trends, Tips

Aintree's Becher Chase is a real crowd pleaser, run as it is over the Grand National fences. It has been a reasonable portent to that mile and a quarter longer race in recent times, with both Silver Birch and Amberleigh House taking the Becher en route to National glory.

Becher Chase 2015 Trends

Becher Chase last time out trends: Considering that seven of the eighteen winners since 1997 were priced 14/1 or bigger, it might be a surprise that only one horse who completed on its previous start finished worse than fifth that day. Top fivers won twelve from 158 (7.6% strike rate). Of the eight to fall or be brought down in their previous race, just one made the frame, none winning; but of those pulling up or unseating last time, there were five winners and four further places from just 34 runners (14.7%).

Those completing last time but with five or more in front of them have gone a collective 1 for 73, with just nine placed efforts to their names (12.3%). That compares to 42 top five last time out placers (26.6%) and ten last day non-completers to make the frame (23.8%).

I'd be prepared to forgive a horse that didn't finish on its previous run, but would be far more apprehensive about one that simply ran down the field.

Becher Chase Age trends: This is a solid test of stamina, so while it is possible for a young horse to prevail (Silver Birch was seven when he won in 2004), the percentage call is for older lags. Specifically, since 1997, five to seven year olds are 1 from 40 (2.5%), seven places (17.5%).

Those aged eight to ten are 13 from 183 (7.1%), 43 places (23.5%); and older horses still are 4 from 52 (7.7%), eleven places (21.2%).

The message here appears to be that it is reckless to dismiss older horses, but young ones must be very good to compete on this battle ground.

Becher Chase Weight trends: As is often the case with handicap weight stats, care is required. On the face of it, with half of the last 18 winners carrying 10-07 or less, one would be forgiven for thinking that's where to hang one's hat. However, closer inspection reveals that those nine winners came at a cost of 132 runners (7%).

That compares favourably with middle-weighted horses - those between 10-08 and 11-03 - who won just four times from 92 runners (4%). The small group of 51 horses to shoulder 11-04 or more claimed five prizes between them at a clip of 10%.

Looking at the place strike rates, a similar story emerges, with the bottom third of the weights placing 25% of the time, the middle third hitting the frame just 15% of the time, and the top third yielding a 1-2-3 dividend 27% of the time.

Summary: Don't be afraid to back a highly weighted horse, all other things being equal.

Becher Chase Miscellany: Those with two or more wins over further than the 3m2f Becher trip have won six times from just 24 starters (25%) since 1997, and placed another three times (37.5%) for a healthy win and each way profit.

Becher Chase Trainer trends: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners and six more placers from 23 runners since 1997. Nigel Twiston-Davies also has three wins in that time, from 19 runners, and one further place; while the late Dessie Hughes legged up two winners and a place from just five runners. His daughter, Sandra, runs Irish National winner, Thunder And Roses.

On balance, it looks prudent to favour a mature horse with guaranteed stamina, and either a touch of class or a light weight. The likes of Goonyella and Portrait King look to fit the loose bill.

Becher Chase Form Preview

Your first 30 days for just £1

It's 8/1 the field, and might be close to 10/1 your pick on the morning of the race. Of course, by off time, the overround will be MUCH higher, so the message has to be take a price best odds guaranteed if you are still able to.

The Irish-trained pair of Goonyella and Thunder And Roses lead the market, and both have solid form credentials despite no Irish horse making the frame since One Cool Cookie (25/1) in 2010. The year before, Vic Venturi was the last Irish winner of the Becher for the aforementioned much missed Dessie Hughes.

Daughter Sandra is making a good fist of her fledgling training career, having already brought the (Fairy)house down when winning the Irish National on Easter Monday this year. That success, a big-priced winner flagged here, was achieved by Thunder And Roses, who was given an absolutely brilliant ride by Katie Walsh. Gigginstown retained jockey, Bryan Cooper, takes over and he's yet to be out of the first two in four starts with this son of Presenting.

Thunder And Roses is a horse with some potential and looks a strong stayer but I just wonder whether this might be a sighter for April. If that's the case, it wouldn't do to horlicks the handicap mark in the rehearsal!

Goonyella has already cut his handicap cloth - he's rated 150 after taking the Midlands National in March and running second in the Scottish National a month later - so may as well try his damnedest to win this before pleading for leniency from the official handicapper Phil Smith's discretionary Grand National allocations. (Not that they won't all be trying their damnedest, you understand. Ahem).

There's little doubt as to what Goony's target will be this season and this second attempt at the Becher (unseated at the first last year) looks sure to be more fruitful than the first. How much more is the million dollar question. The answer looks to be considerably more: assuming he jumps round he will have no issue with the trip or the ground, and he had a lovely pipe opener over hurdles a month ago.

The first British-trained name in the betting lists is Algernon Pazham. Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose record in this race is impeccable, the data implies that asking a six year old to tackle this challenge is a big request. Whilst I imagine he probably has the stamina for the job, and some upside potential in terms of form profile, I'm not sure he's quite classy enough. At the prices, it's a no from me, as those upstanding bastions of the community on X Factor might say.

Something of an Aintree legend, Saint Are looks very likely to run a bold race. Winner of a Grade 1 hurdle at the Aintree Festival in 2011, he's since won a Listed handicap chase at the track, ran third in this race last year and then ran second in the National itself earlier this year. The niggle is the ground. Saint Are used to be suited by a sound surface but, as his stamina has stretched out, perhaps that is less of an issue now. If he gets through it, and if the handicapping penalties of those excellent runs haven't taken their toll, he must go close.

I can't have Unioniste, classy though he is on his day. Trip and ground are in his favour but he has to lug eight pounds more than any other horse and, in such a stamina test, I don't expect him to be able to do that. [Cue facile win!]

Pineau De Re won the Grand National as an eleven year old in 2014, and he ran a big race again this year off an eight pound higher rating. Second in a veterans' chase last time he can't be written off - very few can - but nor is he especially appetizing at 10/1.

Soll had rather lost his way since finishing seventh in the 2013 Grand National, but a change of stable saw him notch back-to-back wins earlier this year. Both were at around this trip, and Soll also finished ninth in this year's National. Although he should improve for his seasonal debut, especially with the Pipe yard going better now, he still looks a bit high in the weights to scalp a race of this nature.

This trip looks a minimum for Irish raider, Vics Canvas, who is another higher in the handicap than ideal. A nice completion here, beaten far enough, should knock a couple of pounds off his April return visit rating, for which connections will be performing a rain dance. Not this time, thank you.

The form of the Sue Smith team demands No Planning gets a second glance, the more so when one notes that La Smith has had four placed horses in the Becher Chase from eleven runners since 1997, including 2002 winner, Ardent Scout. No Planning has been in the frame in twelve of eighteen chase starts, winning five of them. This trip might just stretch his stamina but, with the yard in barnstorming form, he's a noteworthy contender.

Dolatulo represents another in-form team (Greatrex/Sheehan). The form of his Rowland Meyrick Chase win of Boxing Day last year gives him a squeak, and he's a year more mature now. But recent efforts ask punters to make a leap of faith and, again, there may be others better handicapped.

One such is Portrait King, who was still going with the leading group when coming to grief three out in this year's National. A stamina test - perhaps more of a stamina test than this, in truth - is what he relishes, on sodden turf. He's actually dropped eight pounds since then and, though one has to overlook a pulled up effort last time, his overall profile - and odds of 16/1 - is more appealing than many. Indeed, keep in mind that those who pulled up last time have won four times since 2006.

Another potentially well handicapped is Highland Lodge, who has plummeted down the weights. Rated as high as 143 two years ago, he gets in here off a mark of 125, mainly by dint of a series of 'gone at the game' efforts. But his most recent run was his best in two years, and he's since moved to Jimmy Moffatt's stable. If a change of scenery has brought about any deeper affection for his profession, he could go better than a 25/1 chance. If...

Finally, though I'd worry about him having the class for this, Financial Climate might be worth a small speculative at a big price. 33/1 is his general quote which perhaps doesn't quite take account of his stable's form, or his ability to handle conditions. Trainer Oliver Sherwood has saddled five winners from 17 runners in the last two weeks, and Tom Garner has ridden three of them, from just five mounts.

The eight year old may have needed his first run of the season when well enough beaten last time, and if he strips fitter for that he has a featherweight, albeit five pounds out of the handicap proper allowing for jockey claim.

Becher Chase Tips

It's a wide open renewal of the Becher, and finding a winner looks a devil of a job. In the circumstances, I think I want some jam on my bread. One that looks potentially well treated on National form is Portrait King and 16/1 offers a scintilla of value.

At the top end of the market, Goonyella ought to run his race though I'm not sure whether the big weight will anchor him late in the play. I'll take a small piece of him at the best prevailing morning odds, which are likely to be a shade bigger than the current 7/1.

No Planning is another I can't resist a morsel on win and place for an on fire yard.

1.5 pts staked in a race where interest trumps edge. If one of this trio wins, we will have been lucky as well as good, because there are very few in the field without a chance!

0.5 pt win Goonyella 7/1 general (or best morning price)

0.25 pt e/w Portrait King 16/1 general (or best morning price)

0.25 pt e/w No Planning 14/1 general (or best morning price)

And remember, take best early price in the 'village', best odds guaranteed if you can. The early prices will certainly offer more value than starting prices.

Double Dutch, 7th November 2015

Double Dutch, 7th November 2015

A better day for us on Friday with two winners, a runner-up and a faller, who looked like he'd have won if staying on his feet.

We also landed a bonus in the shape of a 6/1 exacta and whilst it might sound a little churlish/greedy to mention it, I really thought we were going to have one of those perfect DD days with to 1-2 finishes.

Nevertheless, after what seems an eternity of near misses, it's nice to get some points on the board. More needed though!

Friday's results were as follows:

Present Flight : WON at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
The Backup Plan : fell at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Famous Kid : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Anglophile : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £7.40 here.

Results to date:
719 winning selections from 2578 = 27.89%
227 winning bets in 668 days = 33.98%

Stakes: 1335.00pts
Returns: 1431.52pts
P/L : +96.52pts (+7.23% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

These are Saturday's selected races...

1.05 Kelso :

Throthehatch is a former Point to Point winner who landed a win on his chasing debut last time out. He jumped well that day and although it hasn't turned out to be the best of races, you can only beat what you're faced with and the runner-up has at least won a race since.

It wouldn't be unreasonable for him to improve for the experience and with trainer Lucinda Russell's horses in fine form (7/20) in the last week and her chasers having won 6 of 20 (30% SR) here at Kelso this year, a 9/4 BOG bet with Paddy Power on Throthehatch might prove profitable.

I did also like the look of the capable, but frustrating Roc de Prince, who has the potential to be decent but lacks consistency. Trip and conditions hold no fears for him and he gets on well with today's jockey, but he can't always be relied upon to give his all, which is probably why he's as big as 4/1 BOG here today.

That said, a repeat of his last run could make that price look foolish, having stayed on well four weeks a go at Hexham to win a handicap chase by over to lengths looking like he had plenty to spare. He does have tendency to idle, but if the jockey can keep him up to his work, Roc de Prince could land back to back wins here.

*

2.30 Aintree :

The undoubted class act here is Simonsig and the only issue I have with him is that he hasn't been seen since winning the 2013 Arkle 970 days ago. He has 8 wins and a second from nine career outings and is 12111 over hurdles. He's a course and distance winner, soft ground doesn't faze him and he gets on well with Barry Geraghty.

He's also a Gr1 and Gr2 winner over timber, so this is well short of the heights he has scaled in the past and had he been more active of late, you'd be all over Simonsig at 2/1 BOG today. Mind yo, with a recent run, you'd not get anywhere near that price!

Purple Bay is the one that looks likeliest to derail that comeback bid and whilst he has plenty going for him, I'd not be wanting to back him at 13/8 BOG, which I feel is a little mean, but just about acceptable as half of a double. He's a Gr 2 winner from his penultimate outing at Wincanton a year ago and he followed that up by finishing second in the Gr1 Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day with plenty of daylight between him and the other four horses behind him.

He was actually beaten by 8 lengths that day, but when you see that the winner was Faugheen, it doesn't look too bad. That race has produced 5 further wins whilst Purple Bay has been rested and in a race, where all five runners have something to prove, he might just prevail.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Throthehatch / Purple Bay @ 7.53/1 (9/4 & 13/8 : Paddy Power)
Throthehatch / Simonsig @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Betway)
Roc de Prince / Purple Bay @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : BetVictor & Stan James)
Roc de Prince / Simonsig @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : Betway)

Double Dutch, 13th June 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th June 2014

Another day of near misses and what ifs on Thursday, I'm afraid. In what is becoming a very frustrating tale of woe, we were beaten into second place in both races yesterday, as firstly Global Leader was beaten by just half a length, before Merchant of Medici made the frame without winning for the fourth race on the bounce, going down by just a nose despite leading well into the final furlong.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Global Leader: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Putin: u/p at 12/1 (adv 6/1)
---------------------------------
Merchant of Medici: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Call of Duty: u/p at 4/1 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
254 winning selections from 921 = 27.58%
80 winning bets in 240 days = 33.33%

Stakes: 478.00pts
Returns: 505.63pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +27.63pts (+5.78% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are my selections for Friday...

3.25 Musselburgh:

The ground was too soft for Just Paul at Catterick three weeks ago when well beaten off today's mark of 81, which was a 5lb rise from his previous run, a C&D victoty here at Musselburgh, where his form is sensational at 1211 with all 3 wins coming over course and distance (2nd was over a mile) and he's currently a 9/2 BOG chance to extend that run.

All his six career wins and his best form has come on ground no worse than good to soft, so conditions are ideal for him here today and with Joey Haynes claiming 5lbs today, he's effectively back to the same winning mark from two starts ago, when he won by the best parts fo two lengths, despite being denied a clear run and had to be switched in and out a couple of times.

Best of Order is also of interest here, as his UK form line of 814 doesn't even begin to tell the full story. This 7yr old has run over 40 times now and last year had finishes of 2421 in france, so he came over here with some decent form behind him. The ground was far too quick on his UK debut at Newmarket last July, but he reappeared at Doncaster 32 days ago after a break of 303 days to win over today's trip on heavy ground, which would surely have provided a stiff test of stamina.

He ran again 19 days later (13 days ago) and was fourth at York, beaten by less than three lengths in a much stronger race than this one and on similar good to soft ground as we're seeing today. He's only the second runner from that York to run again, after Balty Boys (5 lengths behind) ran and won at Nottingham nine days ago, beating a 105-rated horse in the process. If fully wound up for this, he could be a big player at 7/2 BOG.

*

7.35 Aintree:

In the last month AP McCoy has ridden nine times for John Ferguson recording three victories and three runner-up finishes and they team up here with the classy Dubai Prince who is already proving a hit over hurdles, winning three times from six efforts and who comes here seeking a hat-trick.

The going is set to be good today and his natural pace between obstacles will be a vital asset this evening. He won five of his seven starts on the flat, including two group 3 contests. He has a couple of good ground wins to his name and is 3 from 3 at Class 3 level. He's up in the weights and is now rated 134, but could still be leniently treated based on his flat form and I fancy him to take this at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

I would expect Minella Reception to be the main threat at 100/30 BOG (also with BetVictor). His form this year reads 1321 and was a comfortable winner last time out at Southwell when making all and quickening away late on ten days ago. He carries a 7lb penalty for that win, but is still a further 4lbs ahead of the assessor and if allowed to dictate affairs again today, he could cause problems for Dubai Prince.

He's a versatile sort, who has won on both heavy and Good to Firm ground and won three times and placed three times from 11 starts in and around today's trip.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Best of Order / Dubai Prince @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Best of Order / Minella Reception @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Just Paul / Dubai Prince @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Just Paul / Minella Reception @ 22.83/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2013

It wasn't one of John Gosden's better days yesterday: just one of his six runners made the frame and our selection, Jefferson City was amongst his four unplaced runners at Newbury, normally a happy hunting ground for him.

So, a loss on the books for us as we travel to a rather damp Merseyside for the first race on the card aka the...

1.55 Aintree

When Tony McCoy will aim to edge that little bit closer to 4,000 career wins aboard Ifandbutwhynot. AP comes here in great form after riding another five-timer at Carlisle on Thursday and since he drew a blank on Friday, he'll be itching to get back into the winners' enclosure here.

Ifandbutwhynot is making his seasonal reappearance after a break of 6 months since falling at the last when he'd every chance of landing the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. He's trained by David O'Meara, who is a bit of a dab hand at getting horses to run well after an absence from the track.

In the 2011/13 time frame, David had reintroduced 146 runners to the track after a break of 2 to 8 months, with 30 f those 146 horses winning on their reappearance. That's a 20.55% strike rate which has generated level stakes profits of 72.5pts or 49.7% of stakes invested.

I'm well aware that 2 to 8 months is a large gap and considering that Ifandbutwhynot now runs after a break of 6 months and a week, we should focus on Mr O'Meara's horses coming off the back of a break of 4 to 8 months, perhaps.

The figures for those runners are 22 wins from 99 (22.22% SR) for 76.56pts (+77.3% ROI), which is very impressive indeed.

Now, David O'Meara is one of what calls his "Saturday Trainers" ie trainers with a good record in Saturday handicaps. I've touched on this in the past, but certain trainers, including David, have a good record in such races for a variety of reasons, possibly including training many syndicate horses whose owners can only get to the track at weekends to see their horses run or maybe they train horses for owners who like to be seen on TV.

Whatever the reason, there is a small band of trainers who consistently turn a profit from these Saturday handicaps. David O'Meara's own record in these events is 63 winners from 406, a strike rate of 15.5% (pretty good from such a large sample size) for profits of 106.4pts or 26.2% of stakes and he looks set to increase that tally with Ifandbutwhynot here today.

I'm not normally what you'd call a favourite backer for SotD, but one has to concede that you can turn a profit from backing the right ones, as one in three do win after all! Ifandbutwhynot is highly likely to have the word favourite after his name today, be it sole, joint or co, but that's not deterring me from backing him here.

In fact, over the 2011/13 period, 19 of the 55 favourites (34.55%) in handicap hurdles here at Aintree have won their races and if you'd had a tenner on all of them, you'd now be £291.20 better off, which represents a near 53% return on your money.

And the final set of stats go back to our illustrious jockey, Mr AP McCoy. Tony has won 7 out of 23 races here at Aintree in the last two years, a terrific  30.43% strike rate and throughout his career, backing every one of his rides in handicap hurdles here at this Merseyside venue would have seen you make a 55% profit on your stakes invested.

Ifandbutwhynot is a classy horse and provided the fall last time out doesn't play on his mind, he looks set to get back to winning ways and he looks set to be suited by the ground, currently described as Good To Soft. He has won 2 from 3 on such ground in the past, but with the amount of rain around the North West at the moment, don't be surprised to see that official description changed to Soft. That shouldn't be a problem either, as he won on soft ground over this trip at Cheltenham in the past.

I'm on Ifandbutwhynot at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor, but that price is also available at Bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power and William Hill, so for your pick of the pack, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.55 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

 

Sat TV Trends: 26th Oct 2012

O BrienThe C4 cameras head to Doncaster, Newbury and Aintree this Saturday - Andy Newton's got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle.......Can Aidan O'Brien land an 8th Racing Post Trophy? Read more

Simple Aintree April System

John Smiths Grand NationalThere are many schools of thought on how Cheltenham form translates at Aintree, and of course, the real answer is that it varies from horse to horse.

But one thing that is true is that an in form horse at either meeting is a horse with a better than average chance. And that's the backbone of this simple little system for Aintree's three day Grand National meeting.

The rules are as follows:

  1. Ran at Cheltenham last time and finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd
  2. Finished 1st or 2nd in the previous race before Cheltenham

And, erm, that's it!

Over the last ten years, that system has found 48 winners from 190 runners, and shown a level stakes profit at SP of 39.62 points. At Betfair SP (and projected Betfair SP), that profit rises to 62.57 units.

Now, there have been losing years as well as winning years, so you need to beware of that. But how about improving the bottom line and reducing the number of bets?

OK then, if you only bet those qualifiers at 5/1 or more each way, you'd have returned 41.88 units of profit at SP from just 68 bets. That's the way I'll be playing this one.

Either way, the message is clear. In form horses which at least placed at the Cheltenham Festival have LIVE chances at Aintree too.