Tag Archive for: Aintree racecourse

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newcastle
  • 1.05 Chelmsford
  • 1.30 Newcastle
  • 3.05 Aintree
  • 6.10 Wolverhampton
  • 7.20 Dundalk

...gives me a grand total of thirteen races to cover, including two Class 1 contests from the Grand National meeting. It'd be rude of me not to cover one of those (even if others more qualified to do so will be doing elsewhere on Geegeez) and if I'm going to do one, I might as well do the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle! It's on your cards as the 3.05 Aintree and 12 runners (4yo+) will tackle 13 hurdles over a left-handed trip of 3m 154yds on soft ground in the aim of winning £140k...

Botox Has, Hewick and Hiddenvalley Lake all won last time out, whilst Flooring Porter was second only to Teahupoo in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in a race featuring five of this field. Strong Leader was also in the frame on his last run, but is the only runner here not to win any of his last five starts.

All twelve raced in Class 1 races last time around and most have raced at least once in the last two months, but Champ & Strong Leader haven't been seen for eleven weeks, Hewick's last outing was his win in the King George on Boxing Day, whilst Proschema hasn't re-emerged since being pulled up before three out in this very race last year.

That race was won by Sire du Berlais, as it was in 2022 so the Elliott/Walsh Trainer/Jockey Combo will be seeking a hat-trick today and this triple Grade 1 12yo comes here off the back of a fine run at HQ. Champ has also won over this course and distance, whilst Crambo, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have all also scored on this track, but the latter is the only runner here without a win over a similar trip...

...whilst Buddy One, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have found top-level race wins hard to come by. Sire du Berlais' back to back wins in this race are reflected in the track stats and Flooring Porter has an excellent record over this type of trip. At first glance, Monkfish would be of interest, but he struggled in the Gold Cup last time out and wa susbsequently found to have bled, so I'd not be too keen on backing him here.

If truth be told, our pace analyser doesn't have much data for today's expected race conditions...

...but does seemingly suggest that a runner willing to take the race on would be of interest, which is good news for the likes of Flooring Porter...

...amongst a group who like to race prominently. Sire du Berlais, however, has taken to racing in the rear of late and this might prove his undoing (as well as his age etc) in his bid for a third successive win.

Summary

For me, this is Flooring Porter's race to win/lose. Second only to Teahupoo last time out, he looks set to control the tempo of the race from the front here and I think his current (3.15pm Friday) 7/2 odds look more than fair.

As for the places (and bookies will pay four here), I'd want at least 8/1 about a horse to make me interested, so let's look at the market...

To be honest, the first four in the odds could very well be the first four home, but it rarely works out that way. I don't rate Champ or Proschema's chances so if I was to take an E/W punt on one (or more) of...

...I think I'd probably put Botox Has ahead of Buddy One and Dashel Drasher. Strong Leader and Hewick are a little short at 9's and 11's for me, whilst Monkfish's run at the Gold Cup puts me off.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 11/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.33 Taunton
  • 2.35 Limerick
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...from which the clear highest-rated takes place just North of Liverpool city centre. The 3.30 Aintree is the Aintree Hurdle, a Class 1 (Grade 1 no less), 4yo+, hurdles contest over two and a half miles (plus 74 yards today for rail movements), taking in a dozen hurdles over a left handed track on soft ground, where one of these will trot away having netted just over £140k for their owner(s)...

Early indications are that this is expected to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe, who are both expected to go off shorter than 2/1. This is unattractive to me in terms of picking/backing a winner, based on my staking levels, but it does open the prospect of an E/W bet at 8/1 or bigger, so let's go!

Langer Dan and Mahons Glory both won last time out, but the latter is the only runner in this field not to run at Class 1 last time out, as he comes here off the back of a Boxing Day, Class 3 hurdle win at Kempton, but he has won two of his last five, whilst the former scored at Cheltenham, becoming the first horse to land the Coral Cup on more than one occasion.

All eight have won at least one of their last five with only Nicky Henderson's Marie's Rock failing to complete their last race. She's one of two mares in the race, both trained by Nick henderson, who has won this race four times in the last six years, including 2022 and 2023. Marie's Rock's jockey Nico de Boinville was in the saddle last year, steering Constitution Hill home to victory. The other mare is the consistent (5 wins and 5 places from 10) Luccia.

The two mares get a 7lbs weight allowance here in a race where the two market principals are best off at the weights ahead of Luccia after the allowances are factored in. Most of the field ran at the Cheltenham Festival a month ago, but Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe didn't visit HQ and last raced in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown almost ten weeks ago, finishing second and third respectively, 5.5 and 10/5 lengths behind State Man, who then went to Cheltenham to win our Champion Hurdle. Luccia was a gallant third that day, beaten by just 3.5 lengths.

Only Mahon's Glory has yet to race this year, but he is one of just two (alongside Langer Dan) to have won over this course and distance, although all bar Neman Lion and Luccia have won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...that said, neither have raced at this trip! The above graphic suggests that of the favourites, Impaire should feel more at home on the soft ground but Bob Olinger is also 3 from 3 over fences on soft ground. Beacon Edge looks like he might be outclassed here and Mahons Glory will find it tough to challenge, but as I'm after an E/W bet, let's look at place data...

...where, as you'd expect, most fare pretty well. I think it's the end of the road here for Beacon Edge, Langer Dan, Mahon's Glory and Marie's Rock, though, as Nemean Lion and Luccia look better E/W prospects so far, unless there's something radical in the pace stats to make me change my mind. I'm aware that this last pair haven't raced at this trip before, but is it better or worse to have not raced at the trip than it is to have tried and failed?

As it stands, this field's recent races suggest that there might well be some decent early pace...

...whilst off an admittedly small sample size of similar past races here at Aintree, early pace does seem to be the best tactic...

Summary

I agree with the pre-race judgement that this is likely to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe and if pushed for a verdict, I'd have Impasse et Passe ahead of Bob Olinger here, but I doubt there'll be very much in it.

As for the places, I envisage another tight battle between Luccia and Nemean Lion. Luccia has ticked more boxes during my analysis, but has never been beyond 2m1f, whilst Nemean Lion was a runner-up over 2m5½f earlier this year. I do like Luccia more than Nemean Lion and she's technically 5lbs well in, so if she stays the trip, she'd be my E/W option. The Wednesday 3.30pm market looked like this...

...with Nemean Lion looking attractively priced too. I'll take Luccia, but I might take the Lion too!

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 19/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 3.15 Newbury
  • 5.00 Downpatrick
  • 5.26 Newbury
  • 7.40 Aintree
  • 7.45 Downpatrick

The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I'm heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers' contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of 'Grand National' proportions, but it's a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground...

Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.

Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today's mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.

A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.

Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,

Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.

Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts...

...whilst place form looks like this...

The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.

The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out...

...with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I'd expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.

Summary

The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they'd be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today's mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.

Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I'd be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I'll wait that out.

For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14's, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.

Chris

Please Note, I'm away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I'll be back Sunday for Monday's racing.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 13/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Chelmsford

The best of those races is undoubtedly up here in the North West, where it's almost inconceivable that the 1/7 priced Constitution Hill would get beat, after winning all five of his Grade 1 starts to date with an average winning margin of over 14 lengths, but with all his rivals being priced up at 14/1 or longer, we could pick ourselves up a nice E/W bet or forecast from the 3.30 Aintree, a 6-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle race over a left-handed 2m4f (+62 yds rail movement)...

CONSTITUTION HILL is 5 from 5 in Grade 1 contests without really breaking sweat. Yes, he's up in trip by the best part of 3 fulrongs, but the manner of his last two victories suggests another easy win.

I LIKE TO MOVE IT has won a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest this season, but was only 6th of 7 and 34 lengths behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out with the re-opposing Zanahiyr three places and 21 lengths ahead of him. he wouldn't be a contender for the top 2 on that run, but he has won here in the past, landing a bumper on debut back in November 2020.

SCEAU ROYAL wears cheekpieces for the first time today after going down by just a length and a half in a grade 2 event at Fontwell last time out. he was third here in 2022's Melling Chase and has won three grade 2 hurdles, but hasn't proven himself in seven efforts at this level.

SHARJAH might not be the horse he was, but he's won seven Grade 1 hurdle races in an illustrious career and was beaten by less than 3 lengths (4th of 24) in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. You know he'll run his race, virtually all of his career has been over a two mile trip.

ZANAHIYR was running a big race in this contest a year ago when falling at the last under pressure from the eventual winner Epatante who re-opposes here. Another similar effort puts him right in the mix for a place, especially after getting within 13 lengths of Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out. Not many have got that close and the trip shouldn't be an issue.

EPATANTE is the only mare in the race and gets a useful 7lb concession. She is, of course a course and distance winner, courtesy of winning this very race last year. She beat all bar stablemate Constitution Hill in both the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle last winter before a routine win in a Doncaster Grade 2 in late January. She wasn't at her best at the Cheltenham festival, but reunited with her stablemate here could see another Nicky Henderson big-race 1-2.

At this point, I've got the battle for silver as a 2-horse contest between Zanahiyr and Epatante, but let's check collateral form via Instant Expert...

...which pretty much speaks for itself and is a tick for the mare Epatante, who also comes out on top on place form...

Based on recent pace profiles, I wouldn't be surprised if the favourite was allowed to set the tempo of the contest in afield lacking an out and out front runner...

...and I suppose the key here might be to see if you could stop him from running too far clear. The chances are that he'll be allowed to dominate, giving us a 5-runner contest for the £53k runner-up prize. As it happens, similar small field races here have been kind to those 'chasing' the leader(s)...

...although I suspect the chase will be at a distance here. Hold-up horses have done well enough too and there's not really much to choose between the bottom four on the pace graphic. I Like To Move It might well be the one who tries to go with the fav, but he weakened late on during his only other effort at this trip and going off too quickly would end his chances here.

Summary

Barring a disaster, Constitution Hill should be cantering home well ahead of the field. Is 1/7 value or not? I'll let you decide for yourselves, but at the stakes I play at, it's not worth bothering. The race for second, however, could be fascinating between Zanahiyr and Epatante with the latter hopefully prevailing. She's (LTO aside) in good nick, seems to run well whenever her stablemate  Constitution Hill is around and is proven at track/trip. Both contenders are priced at 14/1, but Epatante shades it for me.

My 1-2-3 would be Constitution Hill/Epatante/Zanahiyr with me going E/W on the mare and doing the forecast.



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