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Aintree Trends: Fri 9th April 2021

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 9th April 2021 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

FRIDAY, 9th April 2021 (ITV/Racing TV)

 

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

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2019 Winner: FELIX DESJY (7/2)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

16/17 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/17 – Finished first or second last time out
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/17 – Had raced on the flat before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 10)
4/17 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just two Irish winner since 1978 (1 from 25 this century)
10 of the last 20 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2019 Winner: LOSTINTRANSLATION (3/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

17/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
13/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/17 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of last 3)
2/17 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 17 runnings between them
16 of the last 23 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (10) years-old
The last 17 winners were either French (7) or Irish (10) bred.
5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
30 of the last 31 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 29 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (83%) winners had won twice or more over fences
15 of the last 18 (83%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

 

3.25pm – The Marsh Steeple Chase (Reg as the Melling Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2019 Winner: MIN (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: R Walsh

17/17 – Raced within the last 30 days
17/17 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
10/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/17 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
22 of the last 29 (76%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 29 (79%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
16 of the last 25 (64%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
27 of the last 29 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2019 Winner: CADIUM (8/1)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

16/17 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/17 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
4/17 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 - Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 6 winners carried 11-1 or more
5 of the last 6 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 6 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 16 (63%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 27 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 3 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

 

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2019 Winner: CHAMP (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Mark Walsh

15/17 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
2/17 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/17 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (92%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 26 (50%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 20 (65%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival