Posts

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.00 Southwell : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Dwelt soon led narrowly, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m2f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, on what looks as poor a day of racing that I've seen for some time. I'm going to keep it really simple with a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in all bar one of his six efforts over fences, winning once along the way. He stays much further than this, doesn't mind soft ground, he's dropping in class and has been eased 2lb by the assessor since finishing 3rd LTO 39 days ago.

All of which suggests he should be fine with race conditions for his first visit to Doncaster, where trainer Alan King's chasers are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 15.67pts (+49% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 9/31 (29%) for 16.67pts (+53.8%) from males
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.46pts (+123.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 3.33pts (+16.65%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20.84pts (+109.7%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 6/24 (25%) for 18.89pts (+78.7%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.53pts (+81.7%) in Jan/Feb
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.66pts (+40.7%) on Gd to Soft in case the going eases
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 6-7 yr old males sent off shorter than 5/1 after a top 3 finish LTO are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 2.29pts (+28.6% ROI), all in the December to February period, 2 from 2 on Good to Soft and 1 from 1 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms were showing a movement towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Wolverhampton : Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, headway and in touch over 4f out, effort over 1f out, soon ridden, kept on, no extra towards finish, beaten by just over a length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Stratford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 2 from 2 over fences so far, including a win at this grade and one at this track. He's by Diamond Green, whose chasers are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 8.94pts (+44.7% ROI) since the start of last year and these 20 runners (all male) are...

  • 8/10 (80%) for 18.94pts (+189.4%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) aged 6 or 7
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.95pts (+121.7%) on Good to Soft or "worse"
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.57pts (+61.9%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m4.5f
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.23pts (+131.8%) at Class 3
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 5.13pts (+73.3%) from LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 5.21pts (+86.8%) as 6 yr olds

His trainer, Alan King, is 20 from 68 (29.4% SR) for 18.94pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013, including of note today...

  • 19/55 (34.5%) for 21.93pts (+39.9%) at Class 3/4
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.1pts (+45.5%) with male runners
  • 16/32 (50%) for 37.42pts (+116.9%) from those aged 5 or 6 yrs old
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 13.25pts (+88.4%) aged 6
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 2.84pts (+11.8%) at Class 3
  • 6/15 (40%) for 4.2pts (+28%) with Chasers
  • 6/10 (60%) for 12.66pts (+126.6%) with LTO winners
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.97pts (+91.4%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m3.5f
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.85pts (+37%) at 2m3.5f
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.5pts (+30%) on Soft ground...

...whilst from the above, males aged 5/6 at Class 3/4 are 14 from 20 (70% SR) for 41.78pts (+208.9% ROI), including 4/4 (100%) for 10.38pts (+259.5%) this year alone!

And lastly for today, I should mention Alan King's record with LTO winners, particularly those sent off at odds ranging from 9/4 to 10/1 in NH handicaps, as such runners are 13 from 62 (21% SR) for 23.5pts (+37.9% ROI) over the last 4 years, including...

  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 34.8pts (+74.1%) aged 5-7 yrs old
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 9.82pts (+40.9%) at Class 3
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.1%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 15pts (+55.5%) in the second half of the year
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 20pts (+90.8%) with 5-7 yr olds in the second half of the year
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 8.45pts (+140.8%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3 in the second half of the year

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3 as was offered by Bet365 (7/2 BOG) and Betfair/PP (10/3 BOG in the morning) at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.45 Ludlow : Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway after 6th, one pace before 3 out, not fluent 2 out, modest 3rd last)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG or 3/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Fillies A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly has finished 121 in her last three outings and was an LTO winner at this class & trip at Wolverhampton 40 days ago. The rest will have done her good and she clearly looks an improving type, whilst her short career so far has already yielded the following of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs this year
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at 10 furlongs and further
  • 2 wins and a place at 5/1 and shorter
  • 1 from 1 with Tom Marquand on her back

Her trainer, Alan King, is 48 from 229 (21% SR) for 94.1pts (+41.1% ROI) since the start of 2016 with LTO winners subsequently sent off at odds in the basic SotD range ie 9/4 to 12/1 and these include...

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 32.3pts (+70.2%) with females
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 31.9pts (+91.2%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 24.7pts (+145.4%) at 1m4f
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.38pts (+117.3%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

And as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, it's worth seeing how Mr King's runners fare in such contests and a quick dive into the stats show that since the start of 2016 in 3yo+ handicaps over 1m2f and beyond, they are 13 from 41 (31.7% SR) for 36.2pts at a healthy return of 88.3%, including of note/interest today...

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 39.8pts (+124.4%) at 16-60 dslr
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 34.4pts (+190.9%) as the same class as LTO
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 10pts (+62.5%) at the same distance as LTO
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 28.6pts (+168.2%) over 1m4f
  • 6/12 (50%) for 18.4pts (+152.9%) with LTO winners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.11pts (+50.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 27.7pts (+173.4%) on the A/W
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+149.7%) from females
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 0.92pts (+10.2%) in female only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.21pts (+102.6%) here at Kempton
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.88pts (+594%) ridden by Tom Marquand...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG or 3/1 non-BOG until morning as was offered by (a) Bet365 and (b) Hills & Sky respectively at 5.50pm Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.50 Lingfield : Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG PU at 11/2 Mid-division on inside, mistake 6th, weakened, tailed off when mistake 4 out, pulled up before 3 out.

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.50 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m3.5f on Soft ground worth £14,076 to the winner.

Featuring a 7 yr old mare who won a Listed hurdle race by 6 lengths last time out. That was at Cheltenham some 30 weeks (approx 7 months) ago, but this reappearance certainly represents a drop in class for a runner that is...

  • 3/7 going left handed
  • 4/6 at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/5 since moving to Alan King's yard
  • 2/4 in handicap hurdles
  • 2/3 on Soft ground
  • 2/3 after a break of longer than 4 months
  • 1/2 under jockey Wayne Hutchinson
  • 1/1 here at Bangor
  • and 1/1 running in November

Her trainer, Alan King's handicap hurdlers who won LTO are 16/83 (19.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+31.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 14/49 (28.6%) for 8.6pts (+17.6%)
  • those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 9/43 (20.9%) for 43.5pts (+101.1%)
  • and those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson at 6/1 and shorter are 7/27 (25.9%) for 7.8pts (+29%)

Whilst since the start of last year, Alan's runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 13.8pts (+55.1% ROI)  here at Bangor, including...

  • under Wayne H : 7/20 (35%) for 6.6pts (+33.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/12 (41.7%) for 6.4pts (+53.6%)
  • and handicappers are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.8pts (+108.5%)

The last thing that I'm going to mention is that Midnight Tour was sired by Midnight Legend. Regular/long-term readers of SotD will read extensively about the prowess of the Midnight Legend offspring, so I'm not going to churn out loads of data today, but suffice to say that his female handicap hurdlers do really well and they don't mind a bit of mud!

...directing us to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Cheltenham Festival: The Role of Luck

When the Festival concludes next Friday, praise will be variously doled to the talent involved, writes Tony Keenan. Horses, trainers, jockeys, maybe even stable staff, will get credit for their efforts in victory. Much of it will be deserved but the one thing unlikely to be mentioned is luck.

Part of this is simply our thinking biases; humans operate under the illusion of control, overestimating the role we play in outcomes. Another aspect is that luck is hard to quantify in racing; we can all recall specific examples of luck in action, when a horse fell when seemingly going best or failed to get a clear run when travelling strongly or simply a narrow defeat, but gauging trainers who are the victims of variance over time is more difficult. Surely not all of them are equally lucky, especially at the Cheltenham Festival where there are only 28 races, a very small sample size.

Data analysts or sabremetricians have sought to quantify this in other sports, specifically those based in the US. Pythagorean expectation, the formula that estimates how many games a team should have won based on their scoring, have proven a better predictor of future success than past win-loss records in sports in baseball, basketball and American football. These theories have crossed into European soccer too with numbers on shots, shot quality and expected goals now playing a part in some sensible conversations on the sport.

Translating this into racing isn’t easy but it seemed worth a try going back as far as the 2010 Festival.

Rather than taking just one criterion, I decided to use three to see if the same trainers were unlucky across the different metrics. Firstly, the old favourite expected winners -the number of winners a trainer should have had judged on market prices - to see who was lucky and unlucky, overachieving and underachieving. From there, I took the number of seconds and placed runs relative to winners to uncover who was getting close without winning.

Finally, I looked at the in-running markets from Betfair for all the races since 2010 to see how many odds-on in-running trades trainers had, as sometimes the place results may not tell the whole truth, for instance when a horse that looked set to be involved in the finish fell close home. I used 2.0 as my cut-off point as an odds-on trade reflects a view held by someone (rightly or wrongly) that a horse was more likely than not to win a race at a given point.

 

Cheltenham Festival: Trainer Performance Based on Market Expectation

Trainer Actual Wins Expected Wins Difference Actual/Expected
W. Mullins 33 29.5 +3.5 1.12
N. Henderson 21 21.8 -0.8 0.96
P. Nicholls 15 18.0 -3.0 0.83
D. Pipe 11 9.9 +1.1 1.11
JJ. O’Neill 10 6.2 +3.8 1.61
G. Elliott 8 5.3 +2.7 1.51
N. Twiston-Davies 7 5.2 +1.8 1.35
P. Hobbs 7 6.6 +0.4 1.06
C. Tizzard 5 3.3 +1.7 1.51
R. Curtis 4 1.6 +2.4 2.50
T. Martin 4 1.7 +2.3 2.35
D. McCain 4 3.5 +0.5 1.14
A. King 4 6.5 -2.5 0.61
J. Culloty 3 0.3 +2.7 10.00
E. Bolger 3 3.1 -0.1 0.97
H. De Bromhead 3 2.4 +0.6 1.25

 

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It seems scarcely credible but these figures suggest the Festival markets still hasn’t totally caught up with Willie Mullins; he is outperforming expectations despite breaking records at the meeting.

Perhaps this year, when the yard has had so much bad luck ahead of the meeting, will finally see his runners overbet. Paul Nicholls could be Mullins of five years in the future; after a period of being top trainer at the meeting (he won it five times between 2004 and 2009), he now has one of the poorer records among the top trainers, with only Alan King having a lower actual/expected figure.

This is the top group of trainers in terms of winners sent out at the meeting, however, and unsurprisingly most are doing better and/or are luckier than the betting suggests. That could well simply reflect their skill and the quality of their horses but one obvious conclusion is that there must be an awful lot of smaller yards really struggling for a winner who have negative figures.

Gordon Elliott and Jonjo O’Neill are two that stand out in terms of luck though with Elliott it seems likely the market will take full cognisance of the level he is currently operating at; whereas in past seasons, he was slightly under-the-radar, now he is a presumptive Champion Trainer with the favourite or second favourite in seemingly every handicap at the meeting. O’Neill is a different case and his results might be down to how his stable performs through the winter; it seems that every March, his runners come into the Festival under a cloud and the markets have to have them at bigger prices as a result.

Alan King is one of the unluckiest big trainers – a point we’ll return to later – while Jim Culloty is the luckiest and it’s not even close. His actual over expected ratio is off the charts but this looks a case of pure randomness rather than skill; everything else we have seen in his training career thus far says he is not this good and, realistically, no trainer could maintain such figures. Trusting those figures and betting his horses at the Festival would be to fall prey to an extreme form of survivorship bias.

 

Cheltenham Festival: Seconds and Places

Trainer Wins Seconds Difference Places (2nd, 3rd and 4th) Winners to Places Ratio
W. Mullins 33 22 +11 69 2.09
N. Henderson 21 21 0 57 2.71
P. Nicholls 15 19 -4 43 2.87
D. Pipe 11 9 +2 24 2.18
JJ. O’Neill 10 8 +2 15 1.50
G. Elliott 8 7 +1 22 2.75
N. Twiston-Davies 7 6 +1 14 2.00
P. Hobbs 7 2 +5 18 2.58
C. Tizzard 5 2 +3 8 1.60
R. Curtis 4 0 +4 3 0.75
T. Martin 4 1 +3 5 1.25
D. McCain 4 5 -1 8 2.00
A. King 4 6 -2 25 6.25
J. Culloty 3 0 +3 0 0.00
E. Bolger 3 2 +1 5 1.67
H. De Bromhead 3 4 -1 10 3.33
D. Weld 2 3 -1 4 2.oo
M. Morris 1 5 -4 7 7.00
N. Meade 1 2 -1 9 9.00
E. Lavelle 1 3 -2 5 5.00
M. Keighley 0 3 -3 5 0.00
T. George 0 3 -3 8 0.00
N. Williams 0 1 -1 11 0.00

 

In terms of simple winners to seconds difference, Mullins comes off best again. Philip Hobbs is next in with five more winners than runners-up while Rebecca Curtis could well be called "the milk-woman" in that she always delivers with not a single runner-up and only three places to go against her four winners. The unlucky trainers in this regard are Paul Nicholls, Mouse Morris, Martin Keighley and Tom George.

Winners to place ratio is simply places divided by winners; the places here don’t include winners. By my reckoning, a ratio of above 3.00 suggests bad luck while below suggests good luck; there are 3 places available in each race with only one win. Alan King’s misfortune is the one that jumps out here with an amazing 25 places to four winners for a ratio of 6.25 which is more than double what would typically be expected. Both Mouse Morris and Noel Meade have higher ratios but King’s comes from a bigger sample size. Nick Williams, too, has had a lot of horses run well without winning and is still waiting for a first Festival winner.

 

Cheltenham Festival: In-running Trades

Trainer Sub-2.0 Trades Winners Difference
W. Mullins 20 33 +13
N. Henderson 19 21 +2
P. Nicholls 17 15 -2
D. Pipe 11 11 0
G. Elliott 10 8 -2
JJ. O’Neill 6 10 +3
A. King 6 4 -1
N. Twiston-Davies 4 7 +3
E. Bolger 4 3 -1
T. George 4 0 -4
M. Keighley 4 0 -4
N. Williams 3 0 -3
D. McCain 3 4 +1
M. Morris 3 1 -2

 

These in-running histories would surely make for grim reading for many a punter though perhaps not as much as they do for Paul Nicholls; in back-to-back renewals of the Gold Cup in 2010 and 2011 he watched both Kauto Star and Denman trade odds-on in-running before getting beaten. That’s rough.

Nicky Henderson – 2011 Supreme with both Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre – was only other trainer that happened to in the period covered. These Betfair numbers basically back up a lot of what we’ve seen already: Willie Mullins, Jonjo O’Neill and Nigel Twiston-Davies have been lucky; Tom George, Martin Keighley and Nick Williams have not.

So who should we be looking at for some regression, positive or negative, next week?

Overall, Willie Mullins, Rebecca Curtis and Jonjo O’Neill might see their winners drop while Tom George, Martin Keighley, Noel Meade and Alan King could be heading the other way. That of course depends on whether you think they were lucky or good and as they always say, it’s better to be the former than the latter!

- Tony Keenan

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Tikkapick @ 5/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting Abandoned)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Messire Des Obeaux @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding warmed up for this race by winning by 10 lengths 23 days ago and has won his only start on good to soft ground and on his only ride under Daryl Jacob.

Trainer Alan King's runners are in great form, winning 9 of 43 (20.9% SR) in the past fortnight and 6 of 21 (28.6%) in the last 7 days, whilst jockey Daryl Jacob's figures in that same time frame are 10/33 (30.3%) and 8/18 (44.4%) respectively. And Daryl is 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 49.5pts (+75% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012.

In addition to the above , since 2010 Alan King's Class 1 to 3 runners are 15/93(16.1% SR) for 14.1pts (+15.2% ROI) here at Sandown, whilst his runners over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f are 11/46 (23.9%) for 48.2pts (+104.8%)

AND...Alan King / Class 1-3 / 2m4f to 3m1f / Sandown / 2010-16 = 11/44 (25% SR) for 50.2pts (+114.1% ROI)

...and...a 1pt win bet on Messire Des Obeaux at 7/2 BOG from Betfair Sports and/or Paddy Power, as of 6.05pm on Thursday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.40 Pontefract : Highly Sprung @ 11/2 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, no impression over 1f out, weakened entering final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in fine form at present with three wins and a runner-up finish from her last four efforts over hurdles (1121) and she's well suited by conditions here, as she's 3 from 4 under today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson, she's 3/5 going left handed, she's 1 from 1 at this track, 1 from at Class 3 and although this is her first crack at 2m4f, she is 1 from 1 at 2m3f.

In addition to those details, jockey Wayne is 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) here at Worcester since 2013 when riding for Alan King, including 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for 70.6pts (+78.5% ROI) over hurdles, including a win on Miss Crick here back in May of this year.

And if her own stats and those of the trainer/jockey aren't quite enough to persuade you, then a quick look at her breeding might. She's one of many offspring of one of my favourite sires, the recently departed Midnight Legend, about whom there are a myriad of profitable angles to follow, but the one I'm going to share here is very simple indeed...

...Midnight Legend offspring / Class 3 hcp hurdles / 2009 onwards = 35/160 (21.9% SR) for 190.8pts  profit at a whopping ROI of 119.3%.

And of those 160 runners...

  • those who last ran 11-90 days ago are 30/125 (24%) for 169.5pts (+135.6%)
  • those racing over 2m1f to 3m are 29/110 (26.4%) for 194pts (+176.4%)
  • females are 19/75 (25.3%) for 136.5pts (+182%)
  • 5 yr olds are 7/33 (21.2%) for 42.6pts (+129.1%)

and females racing over 2m1f to 3m, 11-90 dslr are 13/47 (27.7% SR) for 120.4pts (+256.2% ROI).

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair Sports and/or BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday (it was 5/1 at 5.20!), but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Worcester.

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Here is today's racecard...

Six Trainers and the Cheltenham Open Meeting

It's the first big meeting of the National Hunt season, hosted... at Cheltenham, where else?

Headlined by the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, the Open meeting runs over three days and offers trainers the chance to get some match practice in way ahead of the Festival next March. But which handlers have their team ready to go here, and which may be hanging fire for bigger battles down the line?

Looking at the handicaps at this meeting since 2010 - five years' worth of data - reveals some interesting performers... and under-performers. Let's start with those who command a second glance.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Follow

 

David Pipe

David Pipe doesn't seem that much like his old man, Martin, who revolutionized the game a generation ago when he introduced interval training. He's more affable, more owner-focussed and, according to the record at least, less obsessed by winners. But not at Cheltenham and not in November.

Pipe Senior loved this meeting, and David is a chip off the old block in that regard at the very least. Indeed, since 2010, he's saddled ten handicap winners, from 52 runners, for a profit of 67.5 points at starting price. Moreover, he's peppered the target in that time, with 23 of his 52 runners making the frame.

One point to note is that the group included 40/1 hurdle winner, Home Run, which does rather skew the figures. Nevertheless, the overall profile demands focus.

Our Dave kicks the meeting off with La Vaticane, the favourite in the opening handicap chase, before saddling top weight, Baraka De Thaix (3rd in the G2 Triumph Hurdle Trial on this card a year ago) in the novices' handicap hurdle at 3.25, and latterly legging up the excellent value David Noonan in the amateurs' handicap chase that closes the card.

Noonan will be riding The Geegeez Geegee on Monday all other things being equal, and he's one of the best amateurs around.

Entries for later in the week are yet to be confirmed at this stage, so keep 'em peeled - a comment that applies to all entries in these lists if you're sufficiently moved to track their progress.

Philip Hobbs

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Hobbs, the Minehead Maestro, has been in scintillating form in the early weeks of the season. In fact, he's been performing at a 25% clip over the past six months, which is phenomenal.

At this particular meeting, the perma-titfered Wallace lookalike has bagged a fairly unspectacular four handicap winners from 39 runners (10%), but has added another six placed horses to that tally (25%).

Your first 30 days for just £1

In profitability terms, Hobbsy (as he's almost certainly known to nobody) has snaffled 15 points at SP and something closer to 40 at Betfair SP, courtesy of three nicely priced winners in the last two years.

Friday sees Allthekingshorses test the oppo for stable mate, Balthazar King, in the Cross Country Handicap Chase; Ink Master attempt to harness the power of the O-pen (certainly not the power of the pun after that crowbarred effort!) in the novices' handicap hurdle; and Return Spring bid for a return to the winners' enclosure at a meeting where he scored two years ago.

Neil Mulholland

Significantly lower profile than the first pair, Mulholland has had an affinity with Cheltenham since his Midnight Chase recorded a superb five wins at the track. Just five handicap starters since 2010 at this meeting have yielded form figures of 11002 and a profit of 12 units at SP.

He's represented by Minella Present, the type of progressive novice that does well here, in the opener; and may run Fingerontheswitch in the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle on Sunday.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Beware

 

Venetia Williams

The folly of nominating trainers with poor records off small sample sizes is franked repeatedly, so please don't go laying this trio for the mortgage. However, each has a far better record at the Festival in March than the Open Meeting in November, and that may be more than mere coincidence.

Venetia is in great form just now, with six winners in the last week. But her record in handicaps at this particular meeting is a lamentable zero from thirty. Or, as they say in the States, "o'fer" (as in O, or 0 more correctly, for x, where x is the number of losers!).

Worse still, La Williams has had just one horse from that score and ten hit the board, for a place lay profit of 25.05 units, according to horseracebase.com

8/1 chance, The Clock Leary, kicks V's 'cap team off in the opener, and she also saddles bottom weight, Eco Warrior, in the novices' handicap hurdle. Further possibles through the weekend include Rigadin de Beauchene and Bennys Mist on Saturday. Good luck if you like any of these - you may need it.

Jonjo O'Neill

Everyone knows about Jackdaws Jonjo's record at the Festival. But maybe not everyone knows how limited his success has been at the November gathering. He has actually had a pair of winners, which is two more than VW. But they've come at a cost of 26 losers, 24 of which were unplaced.

That equates to a place lay profit of 14.22 if Horseracebase.com's calculations are to be believed.

JP's trusted lieutenant is as wily as they come despite a demeanour of innocence presumably acquired from his little known convent days (not really), and there is usually another day for most of his beaten runners, such is the trainer's talent.

He won't trouble us during the first of the three sessions, but may have any of Upswing, Johns Spirit, Milan Bound, Fort Worth and Hedley Lamarr entered on Saturday; and Mad Jack Mytton and Don Padeja on Sunday.

Alan King

Alan King is another big gun who has hardly had the best of it in recent times at this particular fixture. Like Jonjo, he's managed to win two handicap races but, like Jonjo, they have come at the cost of fairly hefty collateral damage. Like Jonjo, he's managed but two further placed runners, this time from 26 saddled 'cappers since 2010.

The place lay kitty swelled by a satisfying 11.33 for those clairvoyant enough to envisage this half a decade ago. For the rest of us, there is a heavy note of caution in those data if tempted to side with a King runner, regardless of how things pan out this time around.

The Duke's apprentice (David Nicholson was his guv'nor when he was a mere best boy) has nothing for Chelters on day one, but a raft of possibles over the weekend, including Sego Success, Annacotty and Turn Over Sivola. Tread on eggshells. Eggshells I say...

**

So there you have it. A thousand words of trainer quack stats. Miniscule sample sizes mean the scope for looking daft seeps out of every one of the sextet. And yet it will come as no surprise whatsoever if the former group persistently trouble the judge, while the latter group trouble what's known affectionately in cycling as the broom wagon.

It's a deeply competitive three day affair, so good luck to all however you play. The season starts here!

Matt

p.s. If you're having a cut at the placepot there this afternoon, Mal Boyle's placepot pointers will surely assist...

p.p.s. I've just heard from the chaps at Cleeve Racing that they're offering a special discount for new subscribers this weekend. Cleeve has an unbroken six year record of National Hunt profit, and are already well in front this fledgling season (+£460 to £20 level stakes)

Use the below codes on the checkout page (where it says 'Have a coupon?') to claim your discount:

Full season membership - cleeve£40 (£199 reduced to £159)
One month trial - cleeve£15 (£40 to £25)

Here's the registration link - do take a look.

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Saturday's Result :

4.55 Ffos Las : Forever My Friend @ 3/1 BOG : 4th at 11/4 jt fav (Chased leaders, mistake 11th, pushed along 6 out, never a threat and beaten by 17 lengths)

Monday's selection runs in the...

4.00 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trainer Alan King has saddled up 34 winners from just 90 runners (37.8% SR) for 19.2pts (+21.3% ROI) of level stakes profits here at Plumpton since the start of 2008.

Those ridden by today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson are 14/28 (50% SR) for 16.5pts (+59% ROI) profit and those running in chases are equally impressive with 13 wins from 27 (48.2% SR) for 12pts profit at an ROI of 44.4% and those chasers ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 10.5pts (+262.3% ROI) with all four priced at 4/1 or shorter.

Wayne now rides a horse in form, that has won 2 of his last three starts over fences (all with Wayne in the saddle) taking the horse/jockey partnership to 3 wins from 6.

Gone Too Far has 3 wins and a place from five starts on good ground, he has 2 wins and a place from five runs at 2m3.5f/2m4f and he has won four times and been placed on five other occasions from the 10 races in which he has been sent off at odds below 9/2.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG with Coral. You can also get this price at Hills and BetVictor, so please...

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Stat of the Day, 15th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2015

Racing Europe was really well backed on Wednesday, which did at least back up my affirmation that I wasn't aimlessly punting at a big priced horse to get me out of the current rut I'm sitting in.

There were obviously plenty of people (including some respected names in the industry) sharing my view that 7/1 was too long and he was eventually sent off as an 11/4 favourite, meaning we'd secured ourselves a ticket at almost 255% of SP. Doing that on a regular basis will make a profit, but unfortunately not on this occasion.

He travelled really well until around the last flight of hurdles when the pace increased and he found himself unable to go with the leading pair and his inability to quicken was highlighted in him surrendering 3rd place on the run-in to deny the E/W punters amongst us even the consolation prize.

Nevertheless, Thursday represents another opportunity climb off the cold list and it's a back to basics pick in the...

8.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about Alan King's 3 yr old filly Forgiving Glance.

It's OK, I haven't taken leave of my senses due to the current drought I'm enduring. Yes, Alan King is best known as a NH trainer and his A/W runners form just 3.7% of his 7,427 runners to grace a racetrack since the start of 2003 and I'm also aware that today's pick is still a maiden after nine starts, but she has run consistently well this year and is totally unexposed over both track and trip.

She shaped as though she needed further than 1m5f last time out when headed and outpaced deep into the final furlong at Bath a month ago, as she went down by just half a length to Le Torrent, who was then a winner here at Chelmsford just five days ago to complete a hat-trick.

The third placed horse from bath, Doctor Kehoe was the best part of three lengths behind Forgiving Glance, but he too went on to win next time out (at Wolverhampton) and despite being raised another 3lb and stepped up in class, he was only then beaten by just over four lengths in a decent contest on Tuesday night (I backed him that night too!).

So, if the form from the Bath run holds out for Forgiving Glance's reappearance, she should go very close again and then finally win after finishing 2432 in her four outings this year.

And now back to Alan King...

As I said at the top, he doesn't run too many on the A/W, but when there's some interest in them, they seem to go well and since 2008 in A/W handicaps with horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1, he has managed to hit 19 winners from 75 and whilst this isn't the biggest sample size I've ever put before you, a 25.3% strike rate that produces 18.9pts at an ROI of 25.2% is difficult to dismiss out of hand.

In relation to this contest, those 75 runners are...

  • 15/48 (31.25% SR) for 26.3pts (+54.7% ROI) since the start of 2012
  • 9/31 (29% SR) for 16.4pts (+52.9% ROI) when ridden by Fergus Sweeney
  • 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 20.6pts (+89.4% ROI) from female horses
  • 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 5.2pts (+30.6% ROI) from his 3 yr olds
  • 9/15 (60% SR) for 27.9pts (+185.8% ROI) in Class 6 competition
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 11.7pts (+194.6% ROI) here at Chelmsford

And since the start of 2012, those ridden by Fergus Sweeney in Class 5/6 races are 6/20 (30% SR) for 15.2pts (+75.8% ROI) profit.

Fergus rides this track well and has been on board this horse twice in the past to finish second and third, but the step up in trip is the key here for me. If she "gets" the 2m, she's sure to be on the premises when the prizes are given out. Time will, of course, tell.

My quoted price is with Bet365, whilst 7/2 BOG seems to be the norm elsewhere. If you need to use another firm other than Bet365, you can always...

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Stat of the Day, 20th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th March 2015

Rock Charm firmed up slightly in the market to be sent off as the 2/1 favourite and ran pretty well, despite finishing third. The Chelmsford track seems to be riding deep/slow and it looked a very open race approaching the final furlong.

Several runners, including our own, tried to kick on to no avail and in the end only the eventual winner was able to pick up any extra momentum. Results are generally better this week than of late, but we've still work to do to make profit for the month, so I could ideally do with having found the winner of the...

3.45 Newbury:

A Class 3 Handicap Chase over 3m on good to soft ground where Alan King's Desert Joe is rated a 9/2 BOG chance with Skybet to make it back to back wins over fences at this trip.

Alan King's record in handicap chases here at Newbury with runners priced in the 2/1 to 9/1 range since 2010 is 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 7.3pts (22.1% ROI), but don't worry I'm not building my selection around that stat! That's just the hors(e) d'oeuvre to the main course later. 😀

Wayne Hutchinson is in the saddle today, as regular King-watchers would have expected and together they make a great team in general, but let's just focus on their record over fences, which since the start of 2010 comprises of 55 winners from 270 (20.4% SR) runners for level stakes profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of 18.2%.

In handicap chases those figures become 33/186 (17.7% SR) for 62.5pts (+33.6% ROI) with runners priced in the 5/2 to 13/2 band winning 20 of 80 (25% SR) for 29.7pts at an ROI of 37.2%.

Desert Joe has been in good form since unseating his rider at Exeter in a 3m chase last November and there were mitigating circumstances at play that day. He'd been off the track for over 2 years (746 days) and was making his chasing debut. He'd slipped on landing after the 4th fence and ejected poor Jack Doyle from the saddle!

Since then, he has ran three times finishing 221 in progressively better runs, culminating in a win at Leicester five weeks ago. The three horses immediately (2.5L, 6.25L & 9.5L) were rated far higher (14lbs, 12lbs & 6lbs) than him and all went on to compete at Cheltenham last week. None of them really did much at the festival, but they did at least get there! And a 6lb rise for our runner doesn't look too punitive based on what he beat.

He's 121 in his last three runs on good to soft ground, 2/4 over this trip, 321 under today's jockey and U21 at this Class 3 level.

Now let's look more generally at some bigger numbers to back up the selection...

Since the start of 2010, 6 to 9yr old males running at Class 3 or 4 level who were winners in a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out in the previous 11-150 days went on to win again on 204 of 869 (23.5% SR) occasions recording profits of 212.8pts profit at an ROI of 24.5%. It's a very profitable angle that I follow and its really not as complicated in real life as it looks in print!

If we break those 869 runners down to fit today's selection, you'll see that each filter is still profitable, despite a dilution of the number of qualifiers, as follows...

Those running in a chase : 196/833 (23.5% SR) for 192.5pts (+23.1% ROI)
Those competing at Class 3 level : 92/439 (21% SR) for 111.8pts (+25.5% ROI)
Those aged 9 yrs old : 40/177 (22.6% SR) for 70.9pts (+40.1% ROI)
Those whose last run (& win) was 11-45 days ago : 185/753 = 24.6% SR for 197.9pts (+26.3% ROI)

You can use the above like pick and mix to make winning combinations and if you put them all together, you can see that...

9 yr old males in Class 3 handicap chases at odds of 2/1 to 12/1, 11 to 45 days after a win by 2 to 10 lengths in a handicap chase are 12/58 (20.7% SR) for 35.1pts profit at an ROI of 60.6%. 

This looks like a decent contest and at 9/2 BOG with SkyBet, there could well be some value in a 1pt bet on Desert Joe. If you've not got a SkyBet account yet, then you should get one by clicking the Skybet name on this page or you can...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Newbury

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SotD : Monday 09/02/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2015

Eight ran at Warwick on Saturday, one was pulled up and seven finished. Our pick Vesuvhill was well fancied and was backed in to become the 2/1 favourite at the off, which gave me some relief that there wasn't just us backing it!

Unfortunately, come the end of the race, he was 40 lengths off the pace and had no rivals behind him in a disappointing display where he gave us no sort of run at all.

All runs of form (good or bad) eventually come to an end and I'm hoping for a change in results from Monday's...

3.50 Plumpton:

A Class 4 handicap chase over 2m4f on good to soft ground, where Alan King has booked Wayne Hutchinson to ride the chase debutant Roberto Pegasus, who can readily be backed at 4/1 BOG.

The trainer does well in handicap chases...

With those priced from Evens to 12/1 since the start of 2010, Alan has had 64 winners from 382 (16.8% SR) runners bringing in 30.8pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 8.1%. And whilst that's a modest return, it's only the prelude to better things.

From the 64/382 stats, today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson is 30/141 (21.3% SR) for 61.5pts (+43.6% ROI) which is far more palatable and of those 141 runners, 88 had been rested for more than a month since their last run and 20 of the 88 (22.7% SR) returned with a win to generate profits of 45.4pts (+51.6% ROI).

Alan also likes it here at Plumpton...

...or at least he should! Since 2008, his record here is 32/83 (38.6% SR) for 20.8pts (+25% ROI) and it's fairly surprising he doesn't send more runners here based on that record. His chasers are 12/26 (46.2% SR) here for 8.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with a 3/9 record in handicap chases bearing 4.2pts profit.

Jockey Wayne Hutchinson rides the track well...

...as verified by a 15 wins from 50 (30% SR) record, which has produced profits of 7.1pts (14.2% ROI) to date with a 4/10 record in chases here.

And the two work well together...

...and have done for some time. Since 2008 the combo has had 202 winners from 1085 runners, with the excellent 18.6% strike rate generating 203.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.7%, whilst in handicap events, they have a record 69/462 (14.9% SR) for 112.2pts (+24.3% ROI).

Since 2010, their record in handicap chases has been very good with 31 winners from 177 (17.5% SR) and 63.5pts (+35.9% ROI) profit with those horses sent off in the 9/4 to 7/1 price banding winning 21 of 90 (23.3% SR) for 27.7pts (+30.8% ROI).

It's the horse's first crack at fences...

Since 2010, Alan King has sent 44 horses into handicap chases as their introduction to fences. The 13 subsequent winners is a very healthy 29.6% of the runners, whilst the 27.4pts profit give a fantastic ROI of some 62.2% and with no winners above 7/1, it seems like it pays to check the market first. Those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 13/35 (37.1% SR) for 36.4pts (+103.9% ROI)

Despite today being the first time that Roberto Pegasus has visited Plumpton or has tackled the larger obstacles, he won't entirely be out of his comfort zone, as he has won three from five on good to soft ground and has two wins at today's class 4 level under belt. He has already been successful over today's 2m4f trip and was victorious on the only other occasion that he competed in a race with less than 8 runners.

Based on his hurdling prowess, he looks leniently treated here today and providing he takes to the fences (and having been schooled by Mr King, he really should!), he looks a decent proposition at 4/1 BOG. That price is widely available, but I've decided to place my 1pt win bet on Roberto Pegasus with Hills, but for your preferred bookies' odds...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Plumpton

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Stat of the Day, 9th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2015

Eight ran at Warwick on Saturday, one was pulled up and seven finished. Our pick Vesuvhill was well fancied and was backed in to become the 2/1 favourite at the off, which gave me some relief that there wasn't just us backing it!

Unfortunately, come the end of the race, he was 40 lengths off the pace and had no rivals behind him in a disappointing display where he gave us no sort of run at all.

All runs of form (good or bad) eventually come to an end and I'm hoping for a change in results from Monday's...

3.50 Plumpton:

A Class 4 handicap chase over 2m4f on good to soft ground, where Alan King has booked Wayne Hutchinson to ride the chase debutant Roberto Pegasus, who can readily be backed at 4/1 BOG.

The trainer does well in handicap chases...

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With those priced from Evens to 12/1 since the start of 2010, Alan has had 64 winners from 382 (16.8% SR) runners bringing in 30.8pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 8.1%. And whilst that's a modest return, it's only the prelude to better things.

From the 64/382 stats, today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson is 30/141 (21.3% SR) for 61.5pts (+43.6% ROI) which is far more palatable and of those 141 runners, 88 had been rested for more than a month since their last run and 20 of the 88 (22.7% SR) returned with a win to generate profits of 45.4pts (+51.6% ROI).

Alan also likes it here at Plumpton...

...or at least he should! Since 2008, his record here is 32/83 (38.6% SR) for 20.8pts (+25% ROI) and it's fairly surprising he doesn't send more runners here based on that record. His chasers are 12/26 (46.2% SR) here for 8.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with a 3/9 record in handicap chases bearing 4.2pts profit.

Jockey Wayne Hutchinson rides the track well...

...as verified by a 15 wins from 50 (30% SR) record, which has produced profits of 7.1pts (14.2% ROI) to date with a 4/10 record in chases here.

And the two work well together...

...and have done for some time. Since 2008 the combo has had 202 winners from 1085 runners, with the excellent 18.6% strike rate generating 203.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.7%, whilst in handicap events, they have a record 69/462 (14.9% SR) for 112.2pts (+24.3% ROI).

Since 2010, their record in handicap chases has been very good with 31 winners from 177 (17.5% SR) and 63.5pts (+35.9% ROI) profit with those horses sent off in the 9/4 to 7/1 price banding winning 21 of 90 (23.3% SR) for 27.7pts (+30.8% ROI).

It's the horse's first crack at fences...

Since 2010, Alan King has sent 44 horses into handicap chases as their introduction to fences. The 13 subsequent winners is a very healthy 29.6% of the runners, whilst the 27.4pts profit give a fantastic ROI of some 62.2% and with no winners above 7/1, it seems like it pays to check the market first. Those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 13/35 (37.1% SR) for 36.4pts (+103.9% ROI)

Despite today being the first time that Roberto Pegasus has visited Plumpton or has tackled the larger obstacles, he won't entirely be out of his comfort zone, as he has won three from five on good to soft ground and has two wins at today's class 4 level under belt. He has already been successful over today's 2m4f trip and was victorious on the only other occasion that he competed in a race with less than 8 runners.

Based on his hurdling prowess, he looks leniently treated here today and providing he takes to the fences (and having been schooled by Mr King, he really should!), he looks a decent proposition at 4/1 BOG. That price is widely available, but I've decided to place my 1pt win bet on Roberto Pegasus with Hills, but for your preferred bookies' odds...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Plumpton

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Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

A nice comfortable victory for Naivasha at Bath got us back to winning ways on Friday, as she virtually made all before pulling clear in the final furlong to score by almost three lengths.

We got on at 9/4, which proved to be marginally better than her 2/1 SP, but she did go as low as 6/4 during the afternoon.

Hurdles action awaits us on Saturday with the...

4.35 Worcester:

Where Alan King's Simply A Legend is priced up at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor on his bid to complete a hat-trick of hurdles victories.

Alan King has a record of 5 winners from 16 in hurdle races here at Worcester with horses priced at 7/1 or shorter, with both of his runners winning here last year.

Simply A Legend is to be ridden by Aidan Coleman who has ridden 15 winners from 95 rides (15.8% SR) here at Worcester over the last five seasons with those winners generating 63.6pts profit, a figure equivalent to 67% of all stakes invested.

This 5 yr old gelding had finished second in three of his first four hurdles races, all at shorter trips than today, before the application of a hood and a step up to 2m 3.5f did the trick at Ascot at the end of March, where he stayed on well to win by three parts of a length.

He was then stepped up to 2m 5f at Kempton and won by half a length, despite blundering at the last. He travelled well throughout and always seemed to be just doing enough to win and probably with a fair bit to spare.

He now comes to Worcester in a bid to land the hat-trick in what will be his handicap debut for a trainer who has the happy knack of getting horses to perform well in their first handicap outings.

Over the last four years, Alan King's handicap debutants have won 16 of 94 attempts for a 17% strike rate and 32.25pts profit making for an ROI of 34.3%. His hurdlers provided the bulk of the winners and runners with a record of 14 wins from 85 (16.5% SR) for 30.9pts (+36.3% ROI), with the 5yr old hurdlers winning 7 times from 36 (19.4% SR) for 26.7pts (+47.9% ROI) profit.

If we apply a 10/1 odds cap: the hurdling handicap debutants have won 13 of 54 races (24.1% SR) for 35.7pts (+66/1% ROI), with the 5yr olds having a record of 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 14.5pts (+66.1% ROI).

At 7/1 or shorter: 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+63.5% ROI) with 5yr olds winning 6 of 18 (33.33% SR) races for 18.5pts (+103% ROI).

And if the price shortens from our 11/2 BOG advised odds, that could be a good sign, as the record at 5/1 or shorter is 9 wins from 25 (36% SR) for 22.5pts (+89.9% ROI) and the 5 yr olds have won 5 times from 9 (55.6% SR) producing 17.7pts profit (+196.4% ROI).

Simply A Legend was sired by Midnight Legend whose offspring have been highly profitable to back in recent years. In fact, the 14.7% win strike rate form the 1100-plus runs by his offspring over the last couple has generated over 21% profits above stakes and his progeny have consistently performed well here at Worcester, especially in similar situations to today's contest.

Since 2009 in races of up to 2m 7f here at Worcester, runners sired by Midnight Legend have won 13 of 76 (17.1% SR) for 25.9pts profit (+34.1% ROI). From these 76 runners, geldings have a 6/34 (17.7% SR) record generating 13pts (+38.2% ROI) and 5yr olds have won 4 of 14 (28.6% SR).

We can further drill down in the 13/76 record of Midnight Legend's offspring at Worcester as follows:

12/1 odds cap : 12/38 (+31.6% SR) for 36.4pts (+95.8% ROI)
8/1 odds cap : 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 30.7pts (+113.7% ROI)
6/1 odds cap : 10/20 (50.0% SR) for 27.2pts (+136% ROI)

All of which points to another decent run by Simply A Legend, especially if the price contracts. The current best price of 11/2 BOG is borderline E/W territory and this is a competitive enough contest for a handicap debut, but I don't think that this horse is done improving just yet.

With that in mind and the old "fortune favours the brave" adage ringing in my ears, I'm going all in with a 1pt win bet on Simply A Legend at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, choose to take the E/W option should the price suit you and you can see all the available prices when you...

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2013

Men Don't Cry certainly proved his consistency on Saturday night, but was unable to get away with conceding a stone to the 3/1 favourite.

Men Don't Cry drifted a little from our advised 5/1 price to an SP of 11/2 and bravely attempted to steal the race coming off the final bend, but was eventually overhauled close to the line and suffered a defeat by just a head.

He was by no means disgraced and certainly belied his price tag, but still drew a blank for us which I'll hope to rectify in the...

3.05 Exeter

In the last two years, Alan King has sent just nine chasers to Exeter, but it has been well worth his while, as he has netted five winners in that time for level stakes profits of 9pts at SP, basically doubling his followers' money.

In fact, he always has an excellent record in chase events here with his overall record reading as 16 wins from 59 races (27.12% SR) for profits of 32.37pts profit at Betfair SP, a return of 54.86% 0f stakes when backed blindly. The bulk of those horses have been ridden by Robert Thornton, whose own record on these King chasers reads 14/44 (31.8% SR) for 34.14pts (+77.6% ROI).

The best results from the original 59 runners have come from backing the ones priced between 5/2 and 12/1 with 12 winners from 41 (29.3% SR) for profits of 42.33pts (+102.3% ROI), of which "Choccy" has ridden 10 winners from 32 (31.25% SR) for 38.1pts (+119%).

And so to today, Alan King has one chaser here at Exeter today and Robert Thornton will be taking the ride on the 10 yr old warrior Oh Crick.

Oh Crick isn't the force that he was in years gone by, but his jumping is still as good as it ever was and he's certainly well treated at the weights if he's in the right mood here.

Despite his advancing years, he very rarely falls and it's only a year ago that he was running off the lofty mark of 145 at Cheltenham and comes here to compete off 127 and if he can run to anything like he is capable, then has to be respected with a chance of at least making the frame.

It won't be easy today, but the 10/1 on offer from Coral was too good to ignore and if things fall his way, then my 0.5pt E/W bet on Oh Crick might just pay dividends.

As always, my advice is to see what the other bookies are offering and the easiest way to do this, is to...

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