Tag Archive for: Albany Stakes

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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And so to the fourth and final quarter of the geegeez.co.uk daily race previews, Friday, Day 4. Two Group 1's, led out by the relatively new Commonwealth Cup and followed up with a cracking Coronation Stakes, are the features but there's plenty to go at from start to end, beginning with the...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

It's hard to believe we've already reached the fourth day of Royal Ascot — time certainly flies when you're having fun. This is my final day of previewing a daily race for Geegeez, and I've genuinely enjoyed it. I hope you've found my musings on the various contests both insightful and enjoyable.

On Wednesday, I tipped a 20/1 winner for Victor Value subscribers. Interestingly, if I hadn’t been previewing the juvenile races for this site, I probably wouldn’t have even looked at that race. So I owe a big thanks to Matt Bisogno for pushing me in the two-year-old direction. [You're welcome, John - just wish I'd given you the Windsor Castle for Wednesday! - Ed.]

Today, let's talk about the Albany Stakes, a prestigious Group 3. Here are some key details about the race: Run over six furlongs the Albany Stakes was inaugurated in 2002, making it one of the newer races at the Royal Ascot meeting. Initially classified at Listed level, it was promoted to Group 3 status in 2005, reflecting its growing importance and quality of participants.

Over the years, several winners of the Albany Stakes have gone on to achieve greater success in their racing careers, enhancing the race's reputation as a launchpad for future champions. For instance, the last two winners, Porta Fortuna (2023) and Meditate (2022), both went on to achieve Group 1 success. Winning or performing well in the Albany Stakes can significantly enhance the reputation and value of a filly, both in terms of racing and breeding potential.

The Albany Stakes continues to maintain its status as a key early-season race for two-year-old fillies.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Last Time Out Track: Naas – 2 winners from 5 runners +40, 3 places

Last Time Out Placing: 1st - 5 winners from 86 runners, 15 places (non-winners last time are 0 from 33 runners, 4 places)

Key Contenders:

Fairy Godmother

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Fairy Godmother built on her debut promise by defeating five rivals in the Group 3 Fillies' Sprint Stakes at Naas last time. The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to be speedy and sets a high standard.

Heavens Gate

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Heavens Gate won a Curragh maiden over the distance 26 days ago. Like Fairy Godmother, she is open to further improvement. She has the rail draw in stall 17.

Mountain Breeze

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Mountain Breeze looked impressive when winning at Newmarket last month. The daughter of Lope De Vega is now two from two and is poised for a big run, posing the main threat to the favourite in my view.

California Dreamer

Trainer: Adrian Murray. California Dreamer finished a length third to Fairy Godmother at Naas. This was a significant improvement from her Dundalk debut, indicating she has more to offer, although beating Fairy Godmother will be tough.

Twafeeg

Trainer: Archie Watson. Twafeeg showcased her speed by winning on debut at Doncaster 20 days ago. There is more to come from her, and an Archie Watson juvenile should never be underestimated at Royal Ascot.

Simmering

Trainer: Ollie Sangster. Simmering showed plenty of promise on her debut at York, finishing third behind Arabie, who has since won a Group 3 at Chantilly. Sent off the 3/1 favourite at York she must have been showing plenty at home. While beating top contenders like Fairy Godmother and Mountain Breeze will be tough, Simmering has room for plenty of improvement. With Jamie Spencer on board, she could get into the places.

Albany Stakes Verdict:

Fairy Godmother sets a high bar and will be tough to beat, but Mountain Breeze is also a strong contender and should provide a stern challenge. Twafeeg, coming off a recent win at Doncaster, has solid each-way claims. The most intriguing runner in the line-up is Simmering, who arguably has the most potential for improvement among the 17 fillies.

Betting Advice:

My idea of the winner is Fairy Godmother and 13/8 looks a fair price about her chance but if you’re looking for an each-way play at big odds I would consider Simmering if you can get 25/1 and four places.

Simmering: £2 each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying four places)

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

Introduced in 2015, this six furlong Group 1 for three-year-olds only is a terrific addition to the Royal Ascot menu. It's been a slot where failed Classic aspirants have rediscovered their top class mojo over a more suitable trip; and where genuinely fast horses can show their (go faster) stripes. In its nine years to date, no trainer has taken the prize more than once, and no horse has returned greater than 12/1 in spite of big fields being commonplace.

Sheikh Obaid has a strong hand with, at time of writing, the first two in the betting. Inisherin was supplemented at some expense, even by a Sheikh's standard, after an easy score in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. He'd previously led the 2000 Guineas field to the quarter pole before the lactic acid kicked in and he checked out. Remarkably, and atypically, he'd never run shorter than a mile prior to the Haydock race. That's a bit of a question mark given it was soft ground there, and so more of an emphasis on stamina, whereas it will be fast turf here. Moreover, leading against milers who are saving something for the final two furlongs is different from trying to best the fastest and classiest speedsters of his generation. He has an obvious chance to win but looks opposable at the prices.

Arrow number two in Sheikh Obaid's quiver is Elite Status, who lived up to his name when hacking up in a Listed race over this trip at Newbury last time. Trained by Karl Burke, who has trained a Commonwealth Cup winner, he's had plenty of experience, with four wins from seven starts thus far. They include a second Listed score as well as a Group 3 but he was thumped in both the Prix Morny and Middle Park (both G1) at the end of last season. You could argue that he was over the top for them, but it is also not unreasonable to take a less charitable view of those no shows. Perhaps he's not quite at this level.

Jasour was beaten in that same brace of top level two-year-old sprints, and also bookended those heavy defeats with Pattern class wins: in his case he preceded them with a G2 victory and debuted this campaign with a G3, over course and distance in the trial race to boot. That was a notable career best and it's perfectly plausible that he's improved plenty from two to three. This, of course, will be the acid test. His trainer, Clive Cox, has, like Burke, won this race before so knows the formula.

Third to Big Evs and Valiant Force, both 2023 Royal Ascot winners, in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Starlust showed there that he could handle very fast ground. He was staying on over that turning five furlongs but has beaten plenty of times (eight, to be exact, from a dozen starts). Moreover, his best form is mostly at the minimum and he looks exposed in comparison with some of his rivals. That said, he does bring the highest official rating into the race, his 114 being earned with a nine pounds hike for an easy handicap verdict last time.

Givemethebeatboys was due to run in that Breeders' Cup race but was scratched by the Santa Anita vets the day before the race, a deeply frustrating experience for all involved, no doubt. Before then, he'd run creditably in the Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes, and holds Elite Status and Jasour on literal analyses of that form. He began 2024 with a Listed win at Navan before just failing to pass the intended but now absent Bucanero Fuerte in a Naas Group 3 last time. This stiff six looks ideal though he'll need to improve a good bit.

Archie Watson has an excellent record at Royal Ascot - three wins last year, just failed in the Coventry over course and distance on Tuesday - and saddles Evade, winner of the 7f Surrey Stakes last time. Trained prior to that Epsom race by Andre Fabre, he'd finished 2023 with a distant view of Rosallion's rump in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. But it was a big step forward on Oaks day, where he was tardy from the gate but showed plenty of speed to move to the front of the field; he then battled gamely while seeming unbalanced on the camber and can arguably be marked up a touch.

Classic Flower runs for Patrice Cottier, who saddled Horizon Dore to run third in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday. In the same ownership, this daughter of Calyx has been second on all three starts in '24, all on very wet turf. Her trainer must fancy her to show more on terra firmer, and she did win a Group 2 on good to soft last October. Her form is hard to peg - likely a beat below the pick of her rivals - but she is consistent, could conceivably step forward for fast turf, and her trainer is respected.

The rest of them probably have too much to find but I want to mention two highly progressive runners who wouldn't be total shock winners. Firstly, Stuart Williams trains Pandora's Gift, a filly that has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces heretofore. Second on her debut as a 20/1 shot, she's won her other four starts, most recently when waltzing away with a Listed prize at Chelmsford. Prior to that she won in a manner rarely seen in a valuable all-weather handicap. She went up 12lb for that win and another 11lb for her Listed victory. If she can translate that level to turf, a further similar bound forward would put her bang there. If.

The twice-raced Kind Of Blue is the other worth noting. James Fanshawe has had some very good sprinters - remember The Tin Man? - and while it's very early to include this colt's name in the same sentence, he looked very good in the second of two novice stakes wins last time. That was good to firm ground on Doncaster's straight track, so no conditions fears, but this is a chasmic class rise. One to keep on side going forwards and it will be interesting, though not wager worthy, to see how he goes in this G1.

This is quite difficult. I want to be against Inisherin, whose ability to lead may be compromised against genuine top class sprinters. Obviously, I expect him to win now. Elite Status made a big jump on figures on his sole three-year-old start and may have matured into a far better model, with similar comments applying to the slightly more lightly-raced Jasour; the latter is a bigger price and appeals as a bit of value at around 6/1. And at Hail Mary prices, I want to take penny flyers on the two fillies, Classic Flower and Pandora's Gift. There are reasons to believe both could step forward a chunk on what they've achieved under these markedly different conditions and, while they might fail badly, the price justifies small interest. Two fillies have won this in its short history so there are no reservations on that score: it's 'simply' whether they'll be remotely good enough!

If I'm wrong about the Sheikh Obaid pair, so be it, but it looks a more open contest than the top two to me...

Suggestion: 80% of a unit win Jasour at 6/1, 5% e/w Classic Flower 33/1 and 5% e/w 25/1 Pandora's Gift

 

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna is arguably more exposed than a few around her in the market for the Coronation Stakes, but she is proven at the highest level and her form stacks up well given she has previous at the track and the likely fast ground suits her ideally.

Porta Fortuna was a decisive winner of the Albany Stakes here twelve months ago, where she impressed with the way she moved through the race before taking it up at the furlong pole and repelling the challenge of Matrika. She was below form on softer ground in both the Phoenix Stakes and the Moyglare Stud Stakes (5¾ lengths joint-third to subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel) but belatedly built on her Royal Ascot win when clocking a smart time in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket at the end of September, beating Rubies And Pearls by a length and a half on ground Timeform called good to firm.

She then ran a screamer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf on her first try at a mile, and again shaped really well after an absence when second in the 1000 Guineas on good ground. She was forced to go earlier than ideal there in pursuit of Ramatuelle, and that pair gave Guineas winner Elmalka a target to aim at, with the margin between the trio at the line very small. The closing sectional suggesting that the winner was favoured by making her move latest of all.

The pair she split are both respected but I’m more than happy to continue to support Porta Fortuna, who has more than once shown herself to be very game under pressure. The fact that she is proven on track and ground is a big positive and the turning mile should suit better than the straight one at Newmarket given her tactical speed.

Ramatuelle could be considered an unlucky loser at Newmarket with plenty blaming Aurelien Lemaitre for kicking too soon but, while Lemaitre has made a couple of high-profile errors, I thought he gave the Justify filly an excellent ride, maximising her superior speed at a crucial part of the race and almost stealing it as a result. My view is that she barely stays 7f and that she will be vulnerable here where she has a draw in stall one which means she must either be ridden aggressively to get track position, or hope that others give her room which is far from certain.

Elmalka is unexposed and will be fancied by many to progress again, but we saw Notable Speech fail to match his 2000 Guineas effort in the St James’s Palace earlier in the week, and Ascot does present challenges of its own. As mentioned, I thought that while the ground she made up late looked remarkable she happened to be in the right part of the track the way that race unfolded, and I’m not sold on her superiority on the day.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Porta Fortuna @ 7/1 (general)

 

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4.25 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite race of the week and one of the best course and distances to have a bet on in big fields. That’s because there is a strong draw bias that is largely overlooked in the betting.

 

 

The line graph above shows the PRB3 performance by draw. It’s quite clear that the bottom eight or so stalls perform far worse than any higher stall and this trend is repeated with the win and place data too. The lowest seven stalls have won four handicaps on good or better ground whilst the next eleven stalls have won twenty times in the same time period.

The heat map shows draw and pace in combination and this is even more enlightening. There seems to be a fairly significant advantage in racing prominently or in mid-division from middle to high draws. Those run styles/draw combinations have accounted for 14 of the last 20 handicap winners in these conditions.

The only other ‘positive’ draw and run style combination is leaders from middle draws. The worst performing combinations are high drawn front runners and low drawn hold up performers.

It’s relatively easy to explain this draw bias. Big field mile and a half handicaps here can be really rough races where those on the rail often don’t get anything resembling a clear run. They don’t get long to sort themselves out in the straight so the horses that are a bit handier, and on the outside, are well positioned in relation to the lead and are pretty much guaranteed a clear run.

Fortunately, the one I’ve liked for this since the declarations first came out is a prominent racer and drawn high, which should see him to maximum effect. For quick reference, you can use the Geegeez Gold pace map below to see which horses fall into the likely advantaged category here.

 

 

On Tuesday I was strongly against Belloccio in the Copper Horse Stakes because Willie Mullins needed to suddenly improve the horse by 10lbs+ on turf for him to figure. Mullins worked his magic and the horse won well. My gripe with the Mullins horses is we know from previous experience that they are very likely to win or run well. At the same time, they often come here unproven over the trips at which they are running, unproven on the ground and their handicap marks are usually complete guesswork. That’s not the case with Ethical Diamond who ticks all those boxes and also even boasts some of my beloved ‘hot form’.

As a 3yo, before moving to Mullins’ yard he improved for the step up in trip from 10f to 12f, when beating a subsequently 94-rated runner up by 2 lengths giving her 5lbs. That run alone makes him look well treated as he is also rated 94 now himself.

He didn’t really fire over hurdles for Mullins but the ground was testing on all three occasions and he was very highly tried. The return to the flat in May did the trick, though, as he was beaten just a short head over 10f at Leopardstown. The winner has since won a handicap off an 8lb higher mark (admittedly over further) whilst the 3rd has since won a 19-runner handicap (admittedly over shorter).

Ethical Diamond has unfortunately gone up 5lbs for that effort but the form looks strong and he’s almost certain to improve for the step back up to 12f here. He likes to race prominently and is drawn in stall 18 (will probably be 16 by the time the reserves come out) so the only thing not to get excited about is the price. He’s around 5/2 at the time of writing and although that might seem short in a big field handicap, it looks pretty fair given how lightly raced he is and the scope there is for more to come stepping back up in trip.

If the race doesn’t go to Willie Mullins, it still looks more than likely it will go back to Ireland as they have a strong grip on this. Crystal Black is a very progressive rival, winning four of his last five starts. He’s been winning over a mile and also 10f and having that mile pace suggests he might not see out this trip. He’s also drawn in stall 4 which is another reason I'm happy to take him on.

Deakin represents last year’s winning trainer, Joseph O'Brien, and he was a neck behind Crystal Black over 10f last time out. Unlike Crystal Black, he’s very much proven over this trip and should have a good chance of reversing that form here considering the extra trip and also the fact he’s drawn in stall 21 (will be 18 after the reserves come out). He’s unproven on fast ground but has coped fine with good and looks a likely player.

Behind Crystal Black and Deakin last time out was Safecracker and he looks overpriced at 16/1 or so. He’s proven over this longer trip and, crucially, is also proven on fast ground. His run style isn’t ideal for the round course but I wouldn’t be surprised if he too reverses form with Crystal Black.

The home challenge is headed by Shadow Dance, a Roger Varian-trained 4yo who hasn’t run since finishing runner up in the Old Rowley Cup in October, traditionally one of the stronger 3yo races of the season (last year’s renewal has produced future winners yet again). Varian’s horses have generally been running to form first time out this season and Perotto had the same prep before finishing 3rd in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup. He’s likely to be seen to best effect over further in future and I think he might end up poorly positioned so I’d be slightly again him here, but I fancy his chances of winning a decent 14f handicap before long.

La Yakel also reappears here after a break and, given he’s generally looked better over shorter and on softer turf, he is opposable from stall 1. Fairbanks and Sea King are both progressive and in form but stalls 2 and 6 could be a disadvantage for that pair. In any case, Fairbanks probably showed the handicapper too much when winning comfortably on his penultimate start, and Sea King might be better in smaller fields and when fresh.

Bague D’Or was one I liked for the Copper Horse earlier in the week but the main angle with him is his record over 14f on fast ground. Back in trip, I’m far less keen on him.

In summary, I think there is a good chance we see an Irish one-two in this year's Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. I’m pretty keen on Ethical Diamond and I’m not put off by his price. Deakin is my clear next best and I might even have a little go on the forecast/exacta. I can see Shadow Dance and Safecracker finishing well from off the pace but they might be at a tactical disadvantage.

 

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5.05 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.

However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide with 13 of the 16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced-poke in such races.

Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had two or three runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats).

If that profile was to hold we'd be left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve are:

Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah

Looking at horses representing trainers who have won this race previously can also be useful.

- John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting
- Charlie (and Mark) Johnston: Arisaig
- Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze

Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, and Arisaig are the three horses to hit my trends profile and which represent yards who know how to win this race.

I'm going for two each-way bets from the trends list, with as many places as you can find, and hope that once again it's the turn of an outsider to take this race.

Arisaig - 25/1 - EW - Charlie Johnston's filly has been in decent form, and his dad knew what was required to win the Sandringham so hopefully that's rubbed off. Arisaig appeared to appreciate more patient tactics when last seen, having been ridden very aggressively at Newmarket the time before, but still running with credit. She showed an impressive change of gear at Lingfield and won like a horse on the upgrade. It was a performance to think that a fast run mile on this straight course with plenty of cover up the middle could be just what she wants. I always like the booking of Jamie Spencer on this track, where you can almost back him blind each way at the Royal Meeting for interest stakes; and he got the job done again yesterday with a 16/1 > 5/1 SP winner. He booted home 90/1 and 140/1 BFSP winners last year. Spencer will switch Arisaig off, get her in a rhythm and allow her to finish her race - I'd like to think that may be good enough to run into the places here, and who knows after that? Evidently she needs to step up again, but she's going the right way and her relative experience could be worth plenty here.

Soprano - 25/1 - EW - George Boughey's filly has been highly tried in her career to date - straight into Group 3s and Listed contests after her Newmarket maiden win - and this is her handicap debut having finished her juvenile season 'winning' her side in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She's been running with credit, but often running on in small fields with the leaders having set sail for home. It's her first attempt at a mile, and trying such a trip here is never ideal, but that's built into the price and is arguably a reason for a jolt of improvement. Like Arisaig, she may relish this strong pace, being covered up and running through tiring horses. She's related to a few milers on her dam side, so fingers crossed she appreciates the extra distance. Billy Loughnane was on the scoresheet on Day 1 and I'm hoping he'll be patient and try and thread his way through. The yard is in fine form also. Soprano has a touch of class and if seeing out the trip can hopefully grab a place at worst. As always, if you can grab a place, you can win, so fingers crossed.

Predicting any draw bias on this straight track appears impossible and so far this week it appears to have been riding fairly, more a case of where the sustained pace comes from. These two will have the option of staying up the middle, though Jamie could go low if he wishes and Billy could go high if wanted, so all bases covered there.

It could be the market has this right again, Indelible stepping out of maiden/novice company, but she does look very short to my eyes. Ralph Beckett is 0/10, 0p in the race also, which wouldn't fill me with confidence if wading in, but maybe she's just a cut above these - the market suggests so and given how good Ralph is generally, and especially with fillies, he will surely win this at some point.

I could name ten more horses and get nowhere near the winner, it's that sort of contest! However, Arisaig and Soprano are two lively outsiders who look overpriced to my eyes. Some bookies are paying as far down as eight places, which could help! Good luck with any bets.

 

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5.40 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's the 'Ascot Derby' is a pale shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time although the Derby second did run, and win, last year. In fact, five of the last seven winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two Derby runners taking part: Voyage, who was actually first past the post at Epsom but did so without a jockey having stumbled and unseated Pat Dobbs shortly after leaving the starting stalls, and Macduff who was quietly fancied for the race but pulled too hard and never got himself into a challenging position.

So, as is usual for the King Edward VII we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money. We do also have a couple of French raiders to spice things up this year, however, including the 5th from the Prix du Jockey Club.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished in the first four (unless it was the Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and, interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy odds wise recently with four of the last five favourites winning and eight of the last nine winners returning 7/1 or shorter.

We can knock a few out on the trends for one reason or another but there are still plenty of the field that seem to tick all the boxes so I'm simply going to go with that recent trend regarding the Epsom runners and side with the horse that was down the field in the Derby.

MACDUFF did well as a 2yo and rounded off his season with a 4th in the Royal Lodge before shaping with promise in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his seasonal debut. He was a staying on second there behind Arabian Crown and, on the back of that run, he was nibbled at ante post at big prices for the Derby and was eventually sent off at 14/1. Taking a keen hold he never really got going and raced in rear throughout to come home a disappointing 13th of the 16 runners. Ralph Beckett now reaches for the first time cheekpieces in the hope they'll help settle him (Macduff not Beckett!) and I'm willing to give him another chance based on his earlier form. He wouldn't be the first horse to fail to handle Epsom before winning here, and he does seem a big price on what he had achieved before Derby day.

SELECTION: MACDUFF 1/2pt EW 25/1

 

6.15 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Pace. It’s important. We’re always told “pace yourself”, whether that’s life in general, or you’re on a three-day bender over a bank holiday weekend. (Please drink responsibly.) Without a certain amount of pace, we’d never get to where we want to go. And if it’s over five furlongs at Royal Ascot, you arguably need a bucketful of it, and that’s what this field has. And in spades, too. Buckets and spades...

Wherever you look here, there’s pace: seven of the nine runners drawn in single figures have led at some point in their last three runs, four from the middle and five from those drawn 20 and above. That’s pretty much half the field that like a view of the front, and unless one of them is an Art Power in disguise - remember him back in 2020, they came here instead of the Commonwealth Cup and he absolutely took them apart with a devastating display of front-running - I cannot help but think this will suit something that can travel in midfield and come through late to win it.

Step forward Blue Storm, who has already taken one big handicap this season after winning the 3yo Dash at Epsom last time out, reversing form with three of those that had finished in front of him at Chester on his seasonal reappearance the time before. He was nicely on top at Epsom late, and this stiffer track should suit even better. A 6lb rise for that is fair, he’s now proven himself in a full field, he’ll travel well in centre pack and has the strength late to play a part. He ticks a lot of boxes for a 14-1 chance, for me, and heads up my list.

Fantasy Master hit the frame in this back in 2021 for Mick Appleby and his Shagraan has a similar sort of profile. You’d be hard pressed to say he was unlucky against Equity Law at Sandown two starts back but I was impressed with the way he travelled there and, once he did find the gaps, he stayed on well for second. I thought at the time this might be the race for him after that effort. He did nothing to dissuade me when third to James’s Delight at Newmarket last time, form that’s already working out, and I think he can reverse placings with second home Two Tribes if given a more patient ride today. Mick seems to have rejuvenated the horse after he left Clive Cox, and I suspect he’s had this race in mind for some time. Stall 19 gives him options, too.

Speaking of Clive Cox, his Symbology is worth a mention at a huge price as well. The negatives aren’t hard to find - she’s not shown much in two starts this year, although in her defence, she’d probably have needed her first start of the year in the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury after nine months away from the track, and then she got no cover at the weekend when well held in the Scurry Stakes. So, yes, you have to be forgiving, but here’s the figures bit - Clive Cox, when running his handicappers within seven days of their last run, is 9-46, which is pretty good on its own, but even better when the expected winners was just over six.

There’s a lot to take on trust and ideally I’d have preferred another furlong, but at 66-1 we don’t have to pay a lot to find out whether she can bounce back to form on a track for which she’s already shown a liking. (In fact, she’s the only horse in the whole field to have finished in the frame at Ascot previously. Another little plus…)

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, six of them guests, across four days; and a great smattering of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2024 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Thanks again, and be lucky.
Matt

p.s. What did you think of the previews this week? Did you enjoy them? And what was your personal highlight of the week so far? Please leave a comment below and let us know



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Record-breaker Hot Darling all ready for Albany challenge

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Hot Darling – the highest-priced lot ever sold on the Tattersalls Online platform – will stretch out to six furlongs for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot as Amy Murphy eyes a decisive blow for the first time at the meeting.

The winner of both her starts, both at five furlongs and including a Vichy Listed event last month, the daughter of Too Darn Hot brought the virtual hammer down at 460,000 guineas on Wednesday.

She was purchased by leading owner Nurlan Bizakov’s Sumbe operation who saw off strong international competition for the prized Royal Ascot contender and becomes a new addition to the band of owners at Murphy’s Southgate Stables.

The intention is to now test the unbeaten filly over further at the Royal meeting when she competes over six furlongs for the first time in Thursday’s Group Three contest.

“It was a great result for everyone, the owners and my team at home,” said Murphy.

“She’s going to go for the Albany. We’ll find it out if six furlongs is right, but we’re looking forward to running her and she’s got a very good brain that we think will help her see the six out.

“We’re very privileged and excited to have Mr Bizakov in the yard and we look forward to hopefully having a good association. We have to thank him for his support.”

Murphy also has high hopes for Rock Hunter, who holds an entry in both the Windsor Castle and Norfolk Stakes, but first will be up for grabs at the prestigious Goffs London Sale which takes place at Kensington Palace on the eve of the meeting.

The son of Expert Eye has twice gone down narrowly to Dominic Ffrench Davis’ Enchanting Empress since scoring on debut at Chantilly debut, but Murphy feels the best of the National Stakes runner-up is still to be seen.

She added: “He’s a horse I have always held in high regard and I still don’t think we have seen the best of him.

“He needs a bit of cover and a strong pace to aim at and through no fault of his own and the small field sizes, he hasn’t really had what I believe he needs yet. I think he’s a lovely horse.

“He’s in the Windsor Castle and the Norfolk. We will have a look at both races and make a decision and if we decide to go to the Windsor Castle then he will have been declared before the sale on Monday.”



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Soprano to step up after Albany effort

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Soprano could be set for a step up in trip after her fine third to Porta Fortuna in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The George Boughey-trained filly was well supported in the six-furlong Group Three contest following her smart debut win over the minimum trip at Newmarket.

However, she did not have the ideal draw and despite staying on nicely under William Buick, the daughter of Starspangledbanner could not reduce a diminishing two-length deficit at the line.

Harry Herbert, managing director for owners Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, believes she will develop into another top-class prospect.

“We were really excited by that,” he said. “She looked like a really good filly. She had run and won on debut like a very good filly, and she’d done well physically entering the Royal meeting.

“As William Buick said afterwards, if she’d have just broken a bit better and been drawn a bit better, she would definitely have tickled them up.

“She is a beautiful filly and she’s got size and scope. She needs to go further. We haven’t decided where to go, but we will plot a course.

“It is very exciting, because it looks like she deserves to play at the top table. We’ve been fortunate to have some wonderful fillies in recent years, and she looks like being another one.”

Highclere appear to have another smart filly on their hands in the shape of Truthful.

Truthful returns to the Haydock winner's enclosure
Truthful returns to the Haydock winner’s enclosure (PA)

Trained by William Haggas, the three-year-old by Sea The Stars made a winning debut at Salisbury last month, taking 10-furlong fillies’ novice race and followed up over an extended 11 furlongs at Haydock 12 days ago.

Herbert believes she will step up in class now. He said: “She is lovely filly. She is two for two and we’ll probably step up to black type next time.

“She looks like she could be very special. There is lots to look forward to.

“I don’t know where she goes next. It is hard to know, when you are rated like she is, whether you still stick in a valuable handicap or whether you move to Listed company.

“She was being considered by William for the Ribblesdale after one run, so I’d like to think she’ll be heading to a black type race next time.”

Herbert is the son of the late Queen’s legendary racing manager Lord Porchester and his brother-in-law John Warren currently fills that role.

The King and Queen, attending their first Royal Ascot since the coronation, saw their colours carried to victory by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes, which Herbert felt was a major shot in the arm for British racing.

“It was an absolutely fantastic Royal Ascot in regards to the overall event,” he added.

“I thought it was extraordinary and of course it was a sort of turning of the page from the late Queen, and the King and Queen so obviously enjoying it and having a winner was wonderful.

“That winner was quite simply one of the greatest things that could possibly have ever happened, great for British racing and the whole event.

“It was remarkable. They enjoyed every bit of it, right through the five days and having a winner, and we all know how hard that is – there are so few races and they’re such competitive races – that to hit the back of the net at Royal Ascot is incredibly difficult.

The King and Queen were in attendance throughout the five days
The King and Queen were in attendance throughout the five days (David Davies/PA)

“It is hugely important that the King and Queen have invested in the sport, absolutely vital. We all know how international Royal Ascot is, the Australians are over here, the Americans are over here, some Japanese are over here.

“Everywhere I have ever gone, racing the world, it is the one place everyone wants to go to, and to ideally have a runner and, if at all possible, a winner.

“It was a fantastic event and I thought it was great that it went off so brilliantly all round.”



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Dettori lands 80th Royal Ascot win with Porta Fortuna

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Porta Fortuna registered an impressive success in the Albany Stakes to provide Frankie Dettori with his 80th Royal Ascot win.

Having ridden Gregory and Courage Mon Ami to success, the retiring Italian notched up his third victory of the week when guiding the Donnacha O’Brien-trained youngster to a one-length triumph.

A winner of a Group Three at Naas over this six-furlong distance on her previous start, the daughter of Caravaggio put her experience to good use with a professional display in Berkshire.

Having cruised stylishly into contention passing the two-furlong marker, the well-backed 5-1 winner responded gamely to her rider’s urgings in the closing stages as Dettori pushed his mount out with vigour to hold off the Aidan O’Brien-trained Matrika, who finished second having been up with the pace throughout.

The trainer enjoyed many big days in the saddle, but was securing his first winner at the summer showpiece in the training ranks, joining his father and brother Joseph on the Royal Ascot roll of honour.

Dettori said: “It’s brilliant to get 80. I had that figure in my mind all week, 100%.

“I thought, ‘God, I’ve got to get three’. It is easier said than done, but now that I’ve done it ‘Yes!’ it is a big number!”

Frankie Dettori celebrates his 80th Royal Ascot winner
Frankie Dettori celebrates his 80th Royal Ascot winner (John Walton/PA)

Dettori’s family have been on course all week and daughter Mia was in the winner’s enclosure.

She said: “It is amazing having a dad like him, especially when you are at the races. It is like you get the whole excitement which you wouldn’t otherwise get.

“It’s great to be here for his last year here. The whole family are coming at some point. It would be great if he finished on top at Royal Ascot as the top jockey – that would be the dream.”

While Dettori was racking up another Ascot landmark, O’Brien was delighted to get off the mark with a filly who changed hands after her debut win.

Frankie Dettori celebrates with a flying dismount
Frankie Dettori celebrates with a flying dismount (David Davies/PA)

He said: “It means a lot (to train a first Royal Ascot winner).

“She is a very smart filly, and big congratulations to all the owners, they spotted her potential early and bought into her and the plan was to come here and it is great that it has come off.

“She travelled really well, she is a very good filly, she quickened smartly but she kept going to the line well. She is just a very smart filly.

“We’ll take her home and see how she comes out of it. She is quite a scopey filly – she is owned by a bunch of American owners so the Breeders’ Cup will be a target, whether she will stay that far or not we will see.

“We will see how she comes out of the race, then we will make a plan.”

Aidan O’Brien was satisfied with the second and said: “Delighted, she ran a really good race. A lazy worker and doesn’t show you much at home. But we were very happy with that.”

Soprano finished third and her trainer George Boughey expects her to step up again over longer distances.

He said: “I am delighted with her. She looked like she was probably drawn on the wrong side unfortunately, but we are thrilled.

“She’s a filly that is always going to get further. She’s out of a sister to a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner and that’s where her future lies, probably up in trip.

“They just had a little bit too much toe for her and sprinted away, but she hit the line strong.”



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King Of Steel seeking Royal Ascot compensation

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King Of Steel has the chance to pick up some compensation for his Derby near-miss when he lines up in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Roger Varian’s imposing son of Wootton Bassett was making only his first appearance of the season when finding just Auguste Rodin too good at Epsom, but having highlighted his supreme potential on that occasion, will carry the hopes of owners Amo Racing who crave success at this meeting.

It is just 20 days since the colt’s huge effort on the Surrey Downs, but the Carlburg handler believes he has taken his first outing of the year in his stride and is excited to see his talented middle-distance performer back on track.

“He has looked great from the day he got back from Epsom and is in good form,” said Varian.

“He looked a good horse at Epsom and hopefully he can confirm that on Friday. He looked very good in defeat and that bodes well for this week, the rest of the season and beyond hopefully. We hope he is a consistent Group One performer – they are the horses you want in the stable and hopefully he is one of them.

“It’s exciting to have a good horse and be involved in the big races. They are not easy to win, but he looks like a horse who will take us to the big spots and we look forward to Friday.”

Chief among the opposition is the John and Thady Gosden-trained Arrest, who disappointed when sent off favourite for the Derby in the hands of Frankie Dettori, but will be attempting to bounce back to the form that saw the son of Frankel claim the Chester Vase on his penultimate start.

Charlie Johnston’s Dubai Mile and Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star will also attempt to better their respective showings in the premier Classic.

Arrest ridden by Frankie Dettori on their way to winning the Chester Vase
Arrest ridden by Frankie Dettori on their way to winning the Chester Vase (David Davies/PA)

Varian also has a strong hand in the Albany Stakes that kicks off proceedings, with Jabaara, who made an impressive debut at Newmarket in the race the trainer used to prepare Daahyeh for Royal Ascot glory in 2019.

“She’s a good filly, I think, and has been training really well,” said Varian.

“She will like the fast ground if it stays that way and six furlongs looks her trip for the moment. She’s an exciting filly, I think.”

Simon and Ed Crisford’s Carla’s Way and George Boughey’s Soprano both arrive with a similar profile having won in taking fashion first time, while Porta Fortuna brings added experience and Group Three-winning form from Ireland having defeated the reopposing Navassa Island at Naas last month.

Porta Fortuna and connections after winning at Naas
Porta Fortuna and connections after winning at Naas (PA)

The daughter of Caravaggio is the mount of Frankie Dettori on this occasion and is one of two in the race for Donnacha O’Brien, who also saddles Curragh scorer Do It With Style.

“She’s done nothing wrong yet and won nicely first time out on heavy ground, then stepped up to six on better ground and won a Group Three,” said O’Brien.

“She’s a classy filly and we’re looking to see her run. It’s great to have Frankie on board, he obviously brings plenty of experience and has had a lot of success so it’s great to be able to get him.”

He added: “Do it with Style is a lovely filly, she won nicely at the Curragh and has always worked like a nice filly. She’s only had the one run compared to the other filly, but she’s nice and we hope she will run a good race.”

Trainer Donnacha O’Brien saddles two in the Albany Stakes
Trainer Donnacha O’Brien saddles two in the Albany Stakes (Niall Carson/PA)

Amo Racing’s retained rider Kevin Stott has chosen Persian Dreamer out of the owners’ four runners as Dominic Ffrench Davis’ filly attempts to bounce back from defeat in the Marygate at York.

Before that she created a deep impression on debut at Newmarket and connections are hopeful of a return to her best now stepping up in trip.

“I haven’t lost any faith in Persian Dreamer, she was very impressive on debut,” said Tom Pennington, racing and operations manager at Amo Racing.

“The sharp five furlongs on quick ground at York in the Marygate has probably played against her and she didn’t let herself down. She’s a big, strong filly and just didn’t enjoy the ground.”

Persian Dreamer winning on debut at Newmarket
Persian Dreamer winning on debut at Newmarket (Tim Goode/PA)

Flaccianello, Komat and Mapmaker are the others to line up for Kia Joorabchian’s operation, with the latter picked out by Joorabchian himself at the sales as a yearling.

“She’s a nice filly and won well last time at Newbury in a good time,” continued Pennington.

“Kia bought her on spec in the ring at Tattersalls so it will be a nice story if she can run well.

“She’s bounced out of Newbury in good form, whether she is good enough is another question, but Darryll (Holland, trainer) is very happy with her.”



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Varian sets out Albany assignment for Jabaara

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Roger Varian’s Jabaara will follow a familiar path to Royal Ascot after a taking success on debut at Newmarket.

The Exceed And Excel filly contested the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes as the 2-1 favourite under David Egan, a race previously won by both Cachet and Mawj – subsequent 1000 Guineas winners in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Varian has also enjoyed success in the contest before as Daahyeh came out on top in 2019 and then went on to land the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, the same route Jabaara is now likely to take after her three-quarter-length success.

Varian said: “She has always looked smart. I thought she did well there as she was a touch green and he (David Egan) had to take her off heels, switch and start his run again.

“I thought she was a filly with a lot of ability to be able to do that on debut. She pricked her ears as she crossed the line. I think she is quite nice.

“We have been fortunate to win the Albany twice before and I think this filly should go straight there as I think she is quite good and she looked it there today. Time will tell us what the form is worth.

“I thought for a few weeks that she could be an Albany horse. I nearly got her started a few weeks ago but that was only a five furlong option and she has shaped at home as if she has wanted this six.

“A strong pace at Ascot over a stiff six on decent ground would suit her, I would have thought.”



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Royal Ascot 2022: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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The fourth of five days at Royal Ascot, Friday, has a 'get set for the weekend' vibe about it, and the weather is forecast to be joining in, too. Bring your sun lotion and some shades, then, to enjoy seven more top tier tussles headlined by a brace of Group 1's for three-year-olds only, the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes. It's the young guns that get us underway, in the...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

The Albany Stakes, for two-year-old fillies, has run since 2002 when it was a Listed contest. It was promoted to Group 3 status in 2005 and, though it is considered an early opportunity for potential 1000 Guineas types, no filly has yet achieved that double.

Usual challenge with two-year-old races is trying to guess which horses' debut wins were the more meritorious and, on top of that, which might have the most improvement to display this time. In other words, pass the hammer while I attempt to secure this blancmange to the wall.

The market is a guide. Five of the 20 Albany winners were clear favourite and just about broke even. Meditate bids to make it 6 from 21. She's an Aidan O'Brien / Ballydoyle / Ryan Moore unbeaten-in-two filly with a regal pedigree comprised of speed on the sire side (No Nay Never) and stamina on the dam side (Dalakhani mare). And she was a comfortable winner of a 6f G3 last time. She sets the standard.

Saeed bin Suroor, who is having a great week, saddles Mawj, the first of numerous unbeaten-in-one to line up. She's only won a novice, but that was over this distance at Newmarket in a field of ten, and by nearly five lengths. The second has won her sole start since and the third was another three lengths - eight in total - behind the winner. Mawj must be smart.

The Amo Racing-owned Queen Olly has a pure Coolmore pedigree - No Nay Never out of a Galileo mare - and cost €300k as a yearling. Her York debut suggested that expenditure was not completely blown as she strolled clear of a promising group of novices by nearly four lengths. That form hasn't yet worked out but it is still hard to crab the winner.

Fully Wet is the Gosden runner and she won her Goodwood debut; what is noteworthy is that John Gosden has not typically had a terrific debut strike rate, and those that do win on their introduction tend to be pretty smart. Obviously, she's up against any number of other 'pretty smart' types, and the bare form is nothing to get fanatical about.

An early 2yo winner was Powerdress, whose Newmarket five furlong score came in mid-April. She's not been seen since but the form has had a chance to get interrogated, and has fared at least all right. The second and third have won since as have the fifth and eighth. None has taken a good step forward ratings-wise, but she is entitled to improve plenty if she's not a pure five furlong filly: her pedigree is total speed.

Lots of others who are exciting for the future.

The market probably has this right, and Mawj is a much more playable price than Meditate for all that her form is not yet as good as the favourite's. Her debut was a powerhouse performance and if she can move forward even a bit she'll take some beating. She's 4/1 or so.

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

One of the newest and, in my opinion, best races at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup is a six furlong sprint for three-year-olds. It is unique in that it is the only race in the history of the European Pattern to have been inaugurated with Group 1 status. And it has been a cracking addition to the Royal Ascot menu, this year's renewal in no way deviating from that general observation.

A phalanx of fast horses will go to post, headed - in market terms at least - by Perfect Power. Trained by Richard Fahey to win two Group 1's over this trip as a juvenile, he also won when stretched out to seven in the Greenham. That emboldened connections to have a crack at the 2000 Guineas in which he was a patent non-stayer. Nevertheless, he still beat more than half the field and has shown he's trained on, a reservation with some of his rivals.

His ability to get seven furlongs will be an asset over a stiff and fast-run six, and firm ground holds no fears either. He has an excellent chance of another G1 victory. Stall 1 puts him on the rail.

El Caballo has won all six starts since a debut second. They include the 3yo All Weather Championships race and the Group 2 Sandy Lane. He's untested at Group 1 level but is certainly ready for the challenge. Ehraz, meanwhile, is a similar price with some good form at the distance, almost all of it in defeat. He might appreciate a faster run race than he's largely encountered hitherto, but I'm struggling to see his case as clearly as a number of his rivals. He has the widest stall, 20, which may not be ideal.

One of the pace angles is Flaming Rib, co-owned by Michael Owen and trained by Hugo Palmer. He was just behind El Caballo last time having won six of his eleven prior starts. He's very consistent and has been a brilliant horse for connections; it's not impossible that he could find more again.

Michael O'Callaghan has marked himself out as a bit of a sprint king on both sides of the Irish Sea, and he saddles Twilight Jet. Prior to his final 2yo start, this lad had won just one of his eight starts but, since then he's come home in front in both races either side of his winter holiday. His performance in the G3 Lacken Stakes first up this season was particularly impressive; he's another front-runner in a field that is not overloaded with early dash.

Flotus is the out and out pace setter having led in each of his last four runs, winning a Listed and finishing second in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last term. She's not quite been at the same level in two starts this season so has a little to prove for new owners who paid a million for her in December. If nothing else, she'll be an exciting broodmare prospect in due course.

Christophe Clement, the US-based brother to French trainers' association chairman, Nicolas, sends Slipstream across the pond and has enlisted Joel Rosario, one of the very best Stateside, to do the steering. Unusually for an American sprinter at Royal Ascot, he's typically a hold up type, though he has won from the front also - just not recently. He's won three either side of a non-staying effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (mile) and got the better of a smart Wesley horse, Twilight Gleaming, last time. He'll jump from box 18, close to El Caballo but wide enough on the flank.

Go Bears Go booked his ticket with a 'win and you're in' verdict in the Pavilion Stakes, a trial for this, in late April. He's since run only fairly behind El Caballo at Haydock but we know he handles conditions.

One more to mention is Sacred Bridge. Ante post favourite for the 1000 Guineas at one point, she fluffed her lines spectacularly at Newmarket in the Cheveley Park and was again outstayed in the Ballylinch behind Homeless Songs. Dropped back to sprint trips she won a Listed race at Cork last time. If she's not regressed she has back class to give her a shot at a big price. She has stall three.

An exciting race in prospect with draw likely to play a part. The speed horses, Flotus and Twilight Jet, are drawn right in the middle while plenty of fancied runners are berthed on the wings. Not ideal, probably. The one with the best post of the top of the market is probably Flaming Rib and he could be an each way play as a result. I think Perfect Power is probably the best horse in the race, but I worry about the draw, likewise El Caballo and Slipstream could be drawn inconveniently. Sacred Bridge is another for whom a wide post is suboptimal but, at 25/1, I can't resist a little tickle. [Full disclosure: I backed her ante post for the 1000 Guineas so am almost certainly seeking some affirmation - aka throwing good money after bad]

3.40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

A mile and a half handicap for three-year-olds and up, but due to the King George V Handicap being run over the same course and distance for 3yo's only, it's rare to see one in this contest these days; older horses it is, then. We do have the same quirky anti-low draw bias in play: since the track was relaid and Ascot returned from its one year roadshow to York in 2006, all bar one of the 15 winners emerged from a double digit stall. Backing them all would have produced nearly 30 points profit at SP!

The well fancied favourite, Just Fine, is in stall 7; second choice, Trawlerman, is in stall 3; and the well fancied Mashhoor is in stall 1. If the double digit draw theory holds for one more year we'll be on the side of one at a price at least.

Contact is the first on the list. Trained by the Barrons, David and Nicola, they're an unfashionable enough team in the Royal Ascot context but are eminently capable as has been shown with this chap. A good handicapper last term, he has improved 12lb in three runs this season; from a 2022 debut second to Tuesday's Copper Horse Stakes winner, Get Shirty, to a brace of Class 2 handicap wins at this trip, he looks like he has more to give.

William Haggas has Candleford in stall 18. Last seen 219 days ago when beating Coltrane - Tuesday's Ascot Stakes winner - three lengths in a Class 2 all-weather handicap, a literal interpretation of that would put him squarely in the mix. He has turf form, too, having been third in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket last October, and was second over this course and distance before that (subsequently disqualified because the jockey weighed in light). Haggas has a 24% hit rate with horses off a 60+ day layoff so I'd not be unduly concerned by that.

Ever Present is a six-year-old, which is normally older than ideal (though a seven-year-old won in 2020), but in his case he has had only four starts in flat races having formerly been a bumper horse. Switched to a Leopardstown maiden last June he won by six lengths over 1m7f, and followed up in a conditions race over the same track and trip. He beat all bar one in a small field on his handicap debut before making no mistake in a huge field in the Premier 'Petingo' Handicap on Irish Champions' Weekend last September. He's not been seen since, 279 days, though again the trainer's ability mitigates any ring rusty reservations.

And, because his trainer(s), Mark (and Charlie) Johnston, has won this four times, State Of Bliss is another to look at more closely. He's a course and distance winner, in the Shergar Cup last summer, and will love the hurly burly of a race like this. He looks exposed but has shown that these conditions are his optimum.

The top trainer, though, is Hughie Morrison, who has won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes four times - including last year - from just eight runners, and had another one placed. He saddles the poorly drawn Stay Well, who it should be assumed will do just that. It is noteworthy that Morrison elected to run this one from the options he had available. Stay Well has two mile and a half wins to his name from four such races but has been campaigned at shorter in a brace of outings since the second of his twelve furlong victories. He looks a good old Hughie plot perhaps undone by trap two.

Lots more with chances granted a smooth passage, which many will not be. I'm taking three darts here: 11/1 Candleford, whose form is strong if he's fit and ready; 14/1 Ever Present, who is unexposed for one his age; and 25/1 in a place Stay Well, because Hughie.

4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

The Coronation Stakes was incepted in 1840 to commemorate the ascension to the throne of Queen Victoria in 1838. It brings the form lines of 1000 Guineas fillies from across Europe together for the first time and establishes the natural order among that cohort in the same way the St James's Palace Stakes does for the colts.

This year's renewal is a fascinating international smash up between UK, Ireland, France, and the USA, and features the 1000 Guineas winner (and French 1000 runner up), Cachet; the French 1000 Guineas winner, Mangoustine; the Fillies' Mile winner and runner up, Inspiral and Prosperous Voyage; Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, Pizza Bianca; and an unbeaten dark horse from America in Spendarella. Throw in two further juvenile Group 1 or 2 winners with scope for further progression in Discoveries and Sandrine, and, "phew, what a scorcher!" as the soaraway currant bun might have it.

Despite the depth in the field, Inspiral, absent since early October last year, is a clear favourite. She was untouchable as a two-year-old, with daylight verdicts in a Newmarket maiden, Sandown Listed and Doncaster Group 2 en route to running away with the Fillies' Mile back at Newmarket. Prosperous Voyage was second in that race with Cachet third, and those two reversed placings in the 1000 Guineas to give the Newmarket juvenile form a rock solid look, more so with sixth placed Concert Hall taking bronze in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Cachet has since just failed to repel another big field in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, the French 1000 Guineas, where Mangoustine ran her down in the closing metres (they don't do imperial across la Manche). It is quite hard to know why Mangoustine, a progressive filly and winner of all bar her comeback prep this season of five starts is twice the price of Cachet.

Ralph Beckett's Prosperous Voyage has only won one of her seven races and yet she has legit claims to be in the top five three-year-old filly milers: as well as that close up and closing second in the 1000 Guineas, she filled the same position in the Fillies' Mile and the May Hill Stakes, both times behind Inspiral. She has been prominent or on the lead each time, and I wonder how things might play out here with Cachet also looking highly likely to push the pace.

Spendarella is a third front-running option, the American raider having shared the lead at least in her last two of three career starts. It's very difficult to gauge the level of her performances, though we know she, like Inspiral, has been a daylight (i.e. by more than a length) winner of each race she's contested, up to Grade 2 level. Trained by British ex-pat Graham Motion, who brought Sharing, in the same Eclipse Thoroughbreds silks, over to finish second in the 2020 renewal of this, connections have a handle on what's needed to go close and as such she is respected.

While Spendarella doesn't have the same level of form in the book as Sharing did, fellow long-hauler, Pizza Bianca, does. She showed an excellent turn of foot to win the race Sharing won, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and she did it on fast ground and on a track, Del Mar's inner turf, that makes Ascot's turning course look like the vast expanses of the Serengeti. Moreover, who was in fourth that day? None other than Cachet, who must be an absolute dream to train and, especially, own. Cachet led there, as she tends to do, and Pizza Bianca needed a charmed run to get to the front. Here's what that looked like:

That's pretty cool, huh? I think it was down to Nathan Horrocks and his team to put that content together, and it really adds another dimension post-race.

In any case, we can see that Pizza Bianca had a ground-saving trip on the rail for the most part and that when the splits came she was fast enough to go through them. That alone makes her a runner in the Coronation for her celebrity chef owner, Bobby Flay, and French ex-pat trainer, Christophe Clement. Her form this year has been at a lower level in two starts, second to the sometimes very useful Consumer Spending (trained by Chad Brown) and then an easy winner of a conditions race; this has been the plan.

And still the good ones come. Discoveries was a highly touted juvenile, winning the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on Irish Champions' Weekend before a flat effort in midfield in the 1000 Guineas. She was notably weak that day, having been strong in ante post lists through the winter, so perhaps she just needed the run there. Freshened up since, if she's trained on - and she has yet to prove that, though market confidence suggests she has - she is yet another contender. She's still to win over a mile but her pedigree implies it ought not to be beyond her reach.

David Probert, sponsored by geegeez, rides Sandrine, a Group 2-winning filly at two, as well as a Royal Ascot winner (G3 Albany) and a staying on fifth in the 1000 Guineas. It is possible she was merely passing more serious non-stayers that day at Newmarket, but she showed she's trained on and retains her class; this turning track might help her get home, too, and it would be a fairy story for her rider if he could register the first domestic Group 1 of his career on the Royal stage. He has a squeak.

But wait, where's the Ballydoyle runner? We have to go down to the ninth in the current betting lists to locate Tenebrism. A winner twice at two over sprint distances - notably in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs - she was behind Cachet, Prosperous Voyage, Sandrine et al when only eighth in the 1000 Guineas. Her pedigree - by Caravaggio out of a Pivotal mare whose family have all run no further than a mile - suggests this is a stretch.

Mrs Tabor and Mrs Magnier take on their 'other halves' here, too, with Grande Dame, trained by John and Thady. She's only raced twice, winning on Ascot trials day in April and running a close second in a York fillies' race in May. She's going to be a better filly than she's shown to date but this is a deep race and she needs to step forward more than a stone on ratings even if the rest don't improve; that seems unlikely.

It's a proper Bobby Dazzler of a Coronation Stakes, undoubtedly one of the races of the week for me. Tactics and luck in running add to the puzzle, with the likely pace horses (Spendarella, Cachet, Prosperous Voyage) drawn 8, 9, and 12 - and with Mangoustine in 1 capable of pushing on, too. That quartet are expected to be prominent if not leading and may be joined by Discoveries (also wide in stall 10) and, if they're not outpaced/outclassed, Honey Girl (11) and Rolling The Dice (3). Meanwhile, searching for a run at the business end will be Inspiral (5), Sandrine (6), and Pizza Bianca (7). The cleanest trip may win the races.

On reflection, I think Cachet and Spendarella are likely to take them along, with Inspiral sure to make a bold bid if fit enough and if getting a run. Those two if's make 2/1 skinny enough and the horse I think is over-priced is Pizza Bianca. Non Wesley Ward-trained US turf horses tend to be under-rated when they come to Ascot but they've a good record: as well as Sharing, Tepin won the Queen Anne in 2016, and Artos was 4th in the Queen Mary last year from just a handful of runners. This filly has the race smarts to negotiate a passage on a tight turf track, and the finishing speed to take advantage of it. It will be her first time going right-handed but at 16/1 she's worth a go in a brilliant, and open, renewal.

The French 1000 Guineas winner, Mangoustine, is also worth a second look. She'll probably be behind the speed and in front of the late finishers so she may at least get first run on those closers, something she did when scoring at Longchamp last time. 10/1 looks too big.

5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

This was historically a race for the top of the market, fillies returned at single figure odds winning seven of the eight renewals between 2009 and 2016; but since then there have been two 33/1 winners and a 20/1. Hmm. Probably just ignore the market and go with what you fancy then... This is a straight track mile rather than the preceding fillies' mile run on the round course, so luck in running is less of a factor while stamina for the trip is a fundamental prerequisite.

Although most of the last 14 winners were unexposed in handicaps - half were making their 'cap bow, another two were second start in a handicap - it is those with more experience that have the best strike rate, and they tend to be a better price as slightly less sexy plays. Focusing on a minority subset of winners means what follows probably won't identify the first past the post, but if it does we'll be rewarded for our nonconformist perspective.

It will come as little surprise that, of the five more exposed winners since 2008, they all finished first (four) or second (one) last time. Looking solely at last time winners to have raced in two or more handicaps, four of the 18 rocking up in the Sandringham won it. And perhaps it could be called the sand-ringham, because three of those four were all-weather winners, an observation made elsewhere by cleverer people than me who contend that the straight track has a sandy composition not dissimilar to those golden surfaced racecourses. Such matters are way beyond my compass, but in the land of the blind and all that...

Long and short, there are four horses that fit this (tenuous) bill: Golden Spice, Gatecrasher Girl, Washraa, and Tamarama.

Golden Spice has won four of her last six, leading each time, and has two verdicts apiece on turf and all-weather with the turf wins on straight tracks. However, all wins were over seven furlongs and in single figure field sizes.

William Knight trains Gatecrasher Girl, a filly who has won all three of her starts this year, all at a mile. The fact she tends to get up close home has perhaps made it hard for the handicapper to assess her ability and she is still on an upward curve. She won over a straight mile at Doncaster last time so there are no reservations on that score.

Owen Burrows, for whom life has been more challenging since the reorganisation following Sheikh Hamdan's passing, has a chance to once more advertise his abilities, courtesy of Washraa. She's had five races, four on the all-weather, and two wins, on both her handicap spins, one turf and one all-weather. On both occasions, she was doing the good work very late on and is another who could be a step ahead of the 'capper. She'll naturally need to be.

And Tamarama rounds out my quartet of 'hopeful no-hopers'. David Probert gets the leg up on Charlie Hills' bid for a second (at least, writing before Thursday's card) handicap winner of the week after Dark Shift bagged the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday. Tamarama has won two of seven - the most recent two - and was previously placed in an all-weather maiden on her only attempt off the lawns. She tends to race forwardly and has done her winning in small fields so she has a bit to prove in these conditions; but she'll stay, and connections are very much respected.

Of course, there are battalions of others with chances, most of them at shorter prices. But in what is a very tough heat to deconstruct, I'm speculating wildly for sticky bun stakes; and I'm siding each way with 22/1 Gatecrasher Girl and 22/1 Washraa. Get six or more places. I'll probably have tiny bets on the other two, Golden Spice and Tamarama, as well.

5.35 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

A disappointing turnout for the 'Ascot Derby', both in quality and quantity terms. Of the six to line up, only one - the exposed looking Changingoftheguard - has a rating higher than 102. Trying to polish a, well, you get the gist, Changingoftheguard is a worthy 110 and was a creditable fifth in the Derby having previously won the Chester Vase.

In opposition, there are at least some improvers, the pick of which might be Ottoman Fleet, the only one in the line up yet to receive an official mark. He followed up a debut second at Newbury that has worked out well (third placed Lionel won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes next time) with a 'just about' verdict in the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket. That was ten furlongs and he seemed to need further - he's by Sea The Stars out of a Motivator mare - and gets a quarter mile more runway to work with this time.

Lysander doesn't look quite the same level: a debut 3rd on heavy was followed by an eight length stroll in a Newcastle novice over 1m2f. None of the six runs from horses out of that race have registered even a placed effort so the form is dubious. More materially, Lysander was beaten by Lionel in the previously referenced Cocked Hat Stakes, notwithstanding that it was a narrow defeat. He might relish the extra furlong here though that's not been totally obvious either on run style or pedigree: he's by New Approach out of a Shamardal mare. To be totally fair, there is stamina in the dam's family including dam Darting herself who was moderate but won over 1m4f.

Grand Alliance looked a promising horse when bidding for a hat-trick in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. Only half a length behind Nahanni, that was a creditable performance, and the Derby obviously didn't go to plan: he was beaten a long way. But if we lob that G1 effort his profile retains an ascendant hue though he has plenty to find on the ratings.

Dark Moon Rising, a Night Of Thunder colt, steps up to a mile and a half for the first time having been comprehensively thumped by Desert Crown in the Dante at York. That in turn was a first attempt at beyond a mile so he's got to find some stamina from somewhere.

Completing the line up is Savvy Victory, trained by Sean Woods. He's already been separately duffed up by Changingoftheguard and Ottoman Fleet and appears to be outclassed.

In terms of how the race will be run, Changingoftheguard is the obvious pace horse: he tends to go forward and is proven at the trip. Dark Moon Rising also goes forward often but, with stamina not assured, he might be more patiently ridden (and he might not, obvs). Lysander is expected to track the pace with the other three biding their time and hoping not to be caught out of their ground. I can see Ryan Moore looking to dominate from the get go, gradually winding up the tempo and hoping to draw the sting from his rivals; he would look susceptible in that scenario, however, and perhaps the virtually-guaranteed-to-improve Ottoman Fleet at 9/4 is the answer to a fairly uninspiring affair.

6.10 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

The Friday nightcap is a great time to go to the bar. Thirty-odd three-year-old sprinters, many of them making their handicap debut. This is perhaps the ultimate guessers' race at the meeting, and your guess is as good as - very likely better than - mine.

My three guesses then: Shamlaan is quick and wins quite often, usually in smaller fields. Importantly, he's 20/1. And I've always loved the very fast two-year-old, now three of course, Navello. He's dropped a few pounds in the handicap and can go a bit. He, too, is 20/1. And then there's the Wesley Ward wunner, Wuthin - sorry, Ruthin. She was seventh in the Windsor Castle last year, either side of Keeneland scores and, what makes this part of the guessy play, is that Wes has a handicap winner at the meeting from just three attempts (Con Te Partiro in the 2017 Sandringham - I backed her, so probably another bias in play here). She's 10/1 in a place.

*

Good luck if you're betting this race, or indeed any of the races on Friday. And I hope you've enjoyed my gallops through the form for the four week days of Royal Ascot. As ever, 'Heath' day, as it once was, is time for me to reacquaint with the family - they seem like nice people, so why not? - so the best of British (or Irish or French or Australian or American) to you with your weekend wagering. Win or lose, it's been a fantastic week's sport. Thanks for following some of it here on geegeez.

Matt



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