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Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 National Hunt Sires To Note

As we head into winter, and the National Hunt season proper, it is time to shift our focus to various angles which might help us carve out a profit during the months with the short days and long nights.

One somewhat esoteric route is following bloodlines. As with trainers and jockeys, once a sire becomes 'fashionable' the value in the price of his progeny often evaporates. But there are always new routes in to the bloodstock puzzle.

In no particular order, then, here are five National Hunt sires whose progeny have performed consistently well, and who may be worthy of note...

Nickname

We start with a chap for whom there will be no more foals - he died in 2013 - but who is proving himself a top producer with the likes of Le Mercurey, Frodon and Yala Enki flying his flag. What is quirky about Nickname, in the context of a piece like this, is that he was still racing over fences as recently as 2008, as a nine-year-old.

There are not too many nine-year-olds who retain their undercarriage in the NH sphere, still less who then go on to successful stallion careers. His first crop didn't hit the track until 2014 and, sadly, he only has three crops from which to pass judgement. But already he can boast of some high class stock, many of them - Frodon and Bagad Bihoue especially - yet to reach the zenith of their ability. If they are anything like their old man, they'll keep improving for a few years yet.

UK/IRE NH Record since 2009:

Runs: 107   Wins: 27   Places: 46   Winners to runners: 10/14 (71%)

Best Runner To Date: Le Mercurey

One(s) to watch: Frodon, Bagad Bihoue

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Voix Du Nord

With a roll of honour including Vroum Vroum Mag, Taquin De Seuil, Vibrato Valtat and Vaniteux, readers may feel a tad cheated to find Voix Du Nord nominated as an 'under the radar' stallion. Like Nickname, he too passed away in 2013 at a time when, incredibly perhaps, his representatives had a solitary flag-bearer, this month's BetVictor Gold Cup winner, Taquin De Seuil.

With most of his progeny currently of racing age, we still don't know just how good a stallion Voix Du Nord could be. All the more disappointing that he's lost to the game already.

UK/IRE NH Record since 2009:

Runs: 314   Wins: 76   Places: 133   Winners to runners: 24/37 (65%)

Best Runner To Date: Taquin De Seuil

One(s) to watch: Vroum Vroum Mag

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Alberto Giacometti

Your first 30 days for just £1

We move into the land of the living, and the less well known, with our third stallion, Alberto Giacometti. By Sadler's Wells out of a Shirley Heights mare, this fellow was bred to breed if he showed anything on the track and, inevitably, he did. Winner of the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a juvenile, he was a close third in the G1 Prix Lupin behind Dalakhani before an unsighted effort in Kris Kin's Derby the following year.

His work was already done, however, as that two-year-old G1 score was achieved at a distance of ten furlongs and on heavy ground: that's the sort of stamina gene that makes a National Hunt stallion!

Alberto's most famous junior thus far is probably Une Artiste, winner of the 2012 Fred Winter (and ten other races) and, though he has yet to father a truly top class runner, his consistency earns him a slot in this quintet. Specifically, nine winners from thirteen offspring to race in Britain or Ireland since 2009 - nigh on 70% winners to runners - is a fine effort.

UK/IRE NH Record since 2009:

Runs: 128   Wins: 27   Places: 60   Winners to runners: 9/13 (69%)

Best Runner To Date: Une Artiste

One(s) to watch: Abidjan

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Saint Des Saints

Trained by Guillaume Macaire to make the frame in Grade 1 hurdle company, Saint Des Saints has shown himself to be a top class stallion since hanging up his horseshoes. He's comfortably the most commercial of this group, his €12,000 stud fee pretty high for a National Hunt sire. Despite that, or perhaps because of it, he's racked up 577 runs from his offspring since the start of 2009, and 111 wins.

A winners to runners ratio of 60% across such a large pool of horses is impressive, too, and he might just be responsible for next year's Gold Cup winner. Djakadam is that lad's name, the best of the Saint Des Saints progeny to race outside of France, and probably overall.

UK/IRE NH Record since 2009:

Runs: 577   Wins: 111   Places: 239   Winners to runners: 38/63 (60%)

Best Runner To Date: Djakadam

One(s) to watch: Aux Ptits Soins, Romain De Senam

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Malinas

I am a big fan of German sires. With a flat race programme geared towards stamina, and stringent qualification criteria before a horse can stand as a stallion, the Germans seem to be breeding, forgive me, a superior race in terms of National Hunt stock.

Malinas, second to Shirocco in the German Derby of 2004 (1m4f, heavy), is quietly making a name for himself in the sheds. Far from prolific in terms of runners in Britain/Ireland - he's had just 16 individual runners here - he has nevertheless had a glut of runners in mainland Europe, especially France. That may soon be the case here, too, as he was the busiest British-based National Hunt stallion in 2013, covering 129 mares.

Across La Manche, the likes of Mater Matuta, Mali Borgia, and the very promising Brio Des Villerets head a posse of winners. Closer to home, his best known runners are Cheltenham Festival winner, Medinas; and seven-time winner, Black Thunder. But there is plenty of young Malinas blood coming through, including American, Baltazar D'Allier, and Prince D'Aubrelle.

The son of Lomitas has a phenomenal 81% winners to runners ratio. Oh, and geegeez.co.uk may have purchased a foal by this chap, out of a Listed bumper-winning mare... It will be a while before we know if he's any good, but in the meantime those of us in the syndicate will continue to take a very keen interest in how Malinas fares... 🙂

UK/IRE NH Record since 2009:

Runs: 159   Wins: 39   Places: 71   Winners to runners: 13/16 (81%)

Best Runner To Date: Medinas

One(s) to watch: Baltazar d'Allier, Prince d'Aubrelle, Malinas ex Eleven Fifty Nine (2015) [ahem]

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As an aside, you can add sires to your Geegeez Tracker, like so:

Track the progeny of your favourite sires using Geegeez Tracker

Track the progeny of your favourite sires using Geegeez Tracker

And, if you choose to receive Tracker sire notifications on your My Geegeez page, you'll get an email like this each evening:

Get email notifications the night before your favourite sires have runners...

Get email notifications the night before your favourite sires have runners...

Nice!

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So those are my five sires to note, some less obvious than others. But what about you? Swerving the likes of King's Theatre, Presenting, Midnight Legend and so on, who are the stallions whose progeny you look out for? Leave a comment below and share your knowledge of equine genealogy!