Stat of the Day, 5th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

5.30 Southwell : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led until 4th, chased leader, jumped slowly 7th, left in lead next, pushed along before 3 out, ridden and headed before 3 out, lost 2nd next, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Alezan @ 4/1 BOG a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 


We start with a plethora of supporting evidence from the racecard, pace/draw heatmap and the Geegeez Speed Ratings... which we can add a 3yr old filly who won last time out 14 days ago at this grade, at this trip and under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Georgia Dobie whose last ride (3 days ago) was also a winning one for today's trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, who herself has a good record at this venue of late, standing at...

in handicaps on the A/W at Lingfield since the start of 2017, including of relevance today...

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 56.35pts (+122.5%) within 120 days of their last run
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 66.35pts (+184.3%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 28.39pts (+83.5%) were sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 29.18pts (+76.8%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 49.16pts (+163.9%) in fields of 10-12 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 32.92pts (+121.9%) over this 1m C&D
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.19pts (+73.3%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 4/20 (20%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%) at Class 6
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.08pts (+60.6%) off a mark (OR) of 56-65
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.4pts (+120%) from LTO winners...

...and whilst trying not to dilute the sample size too much to make it more chance than relevance, you could combine the top three stats above, as those sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 4 months of a run of the A/W LTO are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 38.4pts (+160% ROI), a nice little trainer/course angle to file away and also includes the following at play today...

  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 30.3pts (+189.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 29.9pts (+271.5%) over this 1m C&D
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.1pts (+111.9%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.09pts (+145%) at the same class & trip as LTO
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 23pts (+255.8%) over this 1m C&D at the same class as LTO
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 23.3pts (+291.8%) at the same 1m trip as LTO
  • with 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.1pts (+257.9%) over this 1m C&D at the same class & trip as LTO... us... a 1pt win bet on Alezan @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05 am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race... here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!