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Racing Insights, 8th October 2021

Every day we open up a selection of 'free' races to all readers, regardless of subscription status and for Friday those races will be...

  • 1.15 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Chepstow
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 4.20 York
  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 5.55 Newcastle

In addition to the daily free races, we also open up one of our Gold features each day and Fridays are Horses for Courses (H4C) day and this report shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

My H4C report for Friday has just one runner, but it looks an interesting one...

Alhaazm is four from five in handicaps here at Dundalk and has finished 111105 in his last six runs, comprising of his four Dundalk wins in races worth £5k to £8k, before defeats at The Curragh and then back here at Dundalk LTO, but those were far better races, worth £27k and £24k respectively.

He's now back at the £8k level where he should be seen in a better light than his last two runs. He goes in the 6.45 Dundalk, a 3yo+ AW handicap over a mile where he'll face 12 rivals for the £8165 first prize. His entry on our racecard comes with lots of positive data...

As you can see from the above, he won three of his last five, he's a former course and distance winner who has rested for 54 days since finishing fifth last time out. He's aged five and will carry 9st 7lbs off a mark of 83.

To put that into context, he was fifth of twelve here last time out, but he had been stepped up to 1m2½f in a far better/more valuable race. he probably didn't really enjoy the extra 2½f but stayed on well enough to only get beaten by less than 5½ lengths and was little more than 1½ lengths away from making the frame at an attractive 16/1.

He runs here off a mark of 83 and his four earlier course wins came off marks of 69, 73, 76 and finally 84, so he's now a pound below his last win. He is, of course four from five here at Dundalk and he's two from two over course and distance.

Down in trip , quality and weight, it's not a massive leap of faith to expect him to be closer the front here, is it? Those stats are, of course, verified/backed up by his Instant Expert entry...

...where he's the only runner with a line of green, which is why you'll also find him on tomorrow's Shortlist report. He's drawn in stall 7 of 13, which is neither a good nor a bad place to be, if truth be told...

Obviously getting one of the first four boxes would have been nice, but stall 7 certainly won't be any horses excuse for losing a 13-runner handicap over this track and trip, past, present or future. In fact Alhaazm's four wins here came from stalls 10 of 14 (7f), 7 of 13 (CD), 9 of 12 (CD), 3 of 8 (7f) and those CD wins are the ones to focus on with a mid to high draw paying off.

We then look at how the race might unfold and the pace stats tell us that...

...in 12/13 runners contests here over this trip, the best thing to do is to race prominently and/or lead from both a win and a place perspective. We know that Alhaazm has won here twice this season already, so we can look back at how he raced those days to give us an indication of how he might approach this one.

I've dug the results out and the first win this season was reported as follows...Chased leaders, pushed along and made challenge from over 1f out, led 1f out, went clear final 110yds, comfortable. And as for the second win this season...Prominent early, soon held up in behind leaders, pushed along towards near side from over 2f out, ridden under 2f out, ran on and made challenge when edged left inside final 110yds, led final strides...suggesting he'll race prominently here too.

Summary

He loves it here and this level of race is where he thrives. He has some good stats behind him, the draw is a familiar if not massively favourable one and his approach is likely to be the right one, so can he win?

Well, he won the race last year, but is rated 10lbs higher here which makes the task tougher, but I think that if he gets up with the pace, he could well land this one again. He's got some tough opposition from the likes of Meishar (5/1) and Dream Tale (7/1), but at odds of 12/1. Alhaazm is certainly worth a Euro or two, especially from an Each Way perspective.

Speaking of which, several firms will be paying four places here and aside from Alhaazm, another double-digit odds contender who might go well is the 14/1 Punk Poet.

*prices from Bet365, the only book open at 6pm.