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Double Dutch, 13th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th August 2015

Back to back doubles have put a happier complexion upon DD's figures and whilst I'm still making up ground lost over the past few weeks, yesterday's 13.5/12 double was very welcome indeed.

For the record, Faery Song won by a length at Salisbury, despite conceding weight all round and then Burnt Cream also defied top weight to win from the rear at Bath.

In amongst all the excitement, Burnt Cream also became our 650th winning selection.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Faery Song : WON at 15/8 (adv 19/10)
Dark Avenger : u/p (5th) at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
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Burnt Cream : WON at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Top Cop : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
650 winning selections from 2297 = 28.30%
205 winning bets in 595 days = 34.34%

Stakes: 1189.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +118.70pts (+9.98% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Thursday's hat-trick bid looks like this...

4.35 Beverley :

Mark Johnston's horses go well here at Beverley, particularly those running at a mile to a mile and a half and also those running in Class 4 to 6 contests. Since both of those apply here, the 3/1 BOG Spirit of Wezda is of immediate interest and despite being headed late on and going down by a length at Carlisle just two days ago, he has been running consistently well and this looks an easier task (on paper, at least!) in what seems a fairly mediocre contest...

...one that probably won't take too much winning, which could open the door for La Superba to take the opportunity of finally breaking her duck after 8 defeats. She has finished fourth on her last four starts, but each time she has suggested a win is due once ideal conditions were found. She faded in the closing 2f last time out and now drops back two furlongs.

Cheekpieces are also applied and the quicker ground should suit her far better than the soft ground encountered last time out. It has clearly been a case of trial and error for this one, but I think the Elsworth team are as close as they're going to get with today's conditions and that's possibly why La Superba is the 11/4 BOG favourite here today.

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6.15 Lingfield :

The Charlie Bishop / Mick Channon partnership is a successful one, particularly here at Lingfield and in Wee Jean, they have a Group horse in fine form. She was beaten by less than a length in Listed Class earlier in the "summer" and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Chester and Newmarket last month off marks of 85 and 90.

She is, of course, up in weight again, but a 4lb rise for a 2 length win at Class 2 doesn't look too bad as she now drops in class to run off a mark still 6lbs lower than that Listed class defeat and there's nothing of that calibre here today. Win or lose, 3/1 BOG (Boylesports) looks generous about Wee Jean.

That's probably because the market also features a surprising favourite in the shape of the 5/2 BOG Aljafer. I'm not saying she's not talented, but despite great consistency (never out of the first four in all 7 starts), she only has one win to her name and is up 3lbs for a defeat by a neck last time out. She was behind Mambo Paradise that day and the latter was well beaten as recently as last Saturday, which doesn't readd to well for Aljafer.

That said, she is consistent, she gets the trip, has won here over this trip (albeit on A/W) and doesn't mind the quicker ground. I think that she's the best option after Wee Jean for the doubles, but I'd probably not back Aljafer at 5/2 BOG in a single.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

La Superba / Aljafer @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
La Superba / Wee Jean @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : generally)
Spirit of Wezda / Aljafer @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
Spirit of Wezda / Wee Jean @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : generally)

Double Dutch, 23rd July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd July 2015

It's not often you see the top two in the market of an 8-runner handicap be the last two home, but it happened yesterday and I'd picked/backed for the Doubles!

So, after that Bath race we were done for the day, although the contest at Sandown offered an opportunity for me to save face and salvage a bit of pride. The task was made harder by my preferred option, Wekeyll, being withdrawn, but American Artist's strong finish under a William Buick drive at least meant I found one winner, as...

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Strictly The One : 7th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Senor George : 8th at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
American Artist : WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Wekeyll : N/R (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
632 winning selections from 2225 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 577 days = 34.84%

Stakes: 1153.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +132.81pts (+11.51% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

No winners on Tuesday and one on Wednesday, we now seek a pair from these on Thursday evening...

7.05 Newbury :

Andrew Balding does really well with his handicap debutants and his unexposed 3yo handicappers also have a good record and Bishops Leap looks likely to be his next winner  from those categories. He never raced as a 2yr old and made his debut at Windsor just over 7 weeks ago over today's 1m2f trip, finishing a very creditable third of ten and only 2 lengths off the pace.

The winner and the runner-up have both won since, as did Bishops Leap on his only other run, winning over today's trip at Lingfield in late June. His opening handicap mark of 80 isn't a gimme, but it's a level he should be able to run to quite easily and if he does, then he has an excellent chance at 9/4 BOG (Coral).

Royal Toast, on the other hand, will want to play a part too and the 5/2 BOG on offer from Bet365 might be a little "big" about a horse who has been placed in both handicap runs to date. He was third and beaten by 5 lengths at Goodwood in a Class 5 contest five weeks ago, but ran far better next/last time out, finishing third again, but only by less than 2 lengths.

And that was after stepping up two classes to C3 and dropping down in trip. He was staying on well at the end comiong from off a quick pace and the step back up to 1m2f allied to a drop in class makes Royal Toast a big danger/player here tonight for me.

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7.55 Doncaster :

Margaret's Mission arrives here on top form having rattled up a hat-trick of handicap wins over a mile recently. She has won all three of her races with today's jockey and comes here as the only previous course winner. She acts perfectly well on this quicker ground and now drops down in trip in a bid to combat a rise in weight and a step up in class. If in the same mood as last seen a fortnight, she'll take all the beating at 7/2 BOG.

And the one who might do that is Aljafer, who is going the opposite way ie coming down in class to meet her. She won her maiden on her second and final run of last season and has made the frame in all four subsequent handicap contests. Her latest effort at Newmarket almost a fortnight ago was probably her best to date and she seems to be progressing well.

She's more experienced at the 7f trip than Margaret's Mission and the level achieved in finshing fourth LTO, beaten by just 2.25L in a £16,000 Class 2 contest is every bit as good as the other horse's wins. MuffriHa was only a length or so ahead that day and she herself has since won by four lengths. Aljafer is priced at 5/2 BOG to follow suit.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Bishops Leap / Aljafer @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Hills)
Bishops Leap / Margaret's Mission @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Coral)
Royal Toast / Aljafer @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Hills)
Royal Toast / Margaret's Mission @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair)