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Two-year-old A/W Debutants, Part 2

In my initial look at trainers to follow with juvenile debutants on the All-Weather, I suggested that anyone thinking of blindly backing such runners should be focusing this season on two yards, those of Hugo Palmer and Archie Watson, writes Chris Worrall.

As with my delve into flat trainers, I went on to mention in that piece that we may be able to eliminate some bad bets by focusing more on each trainer's runners based on a series of factors: track location, actual track, race class/distance/surface, jockeys used, time of year and sex of horse.

So, with that in mind, let's look at each of our two trainers individually to see if we can find an angle for future use, starting with...

Hugo Palmer

As a recap of Palmer's overall figures, we can see that his results with 2yo all-weather debutants from 2015-19 were as follows:

When I looked at each of those 81 runs in more detail, I discovered that they included...

  • 14/67 (20.9%) for 73.89pts (+110.3%) away from Lingfield (where he is 0 from 15)
  • 11/58 (19%) for 45pts (+77.6%) at Class 5
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 73.99pts (+132.1%) over trips of 7 or 8 furlongs
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 76.68pts (+187%) from male runners
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 45.13pts (+136.8%) at Chelmsford, Newcastle & Wolverhampton
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 42.69pts (+147.2%) during September & October
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 37.31pts (+207.3%) on Tapeta

I would propose to initially combine the first three filters to give us just the Class 5 runners in races of 7 or 8 furlongs away from Lingfield for a combined record of...

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...from which, males were 6 from 13 (46.2%) for 61.79pts (+475.3%) and those running on Tapeta won 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 37.4pts (+534.3%).

Suggestion: back all Hugo Palmer 2yo A/W debutants over 7 or 8 furlongs in Class 5 races away from Lingfield, paying closer attention to male runners and also not being afraid of backing one "at a price" on the Tapeta.

Archie Watson

And now onto Archie Watson, whose first AW runner was saddled on 1st October 2016, his 2016-19 stats were...

From which (in order of winners)...

  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 26.7pts (+43.8%) over trips no further than a mile
  • 18/48 (37.5%) for 39.7pts (+82.7%) were sent off at SPs of 10/1 and shorter
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 30.98pts (+58.5%) no further north than Wolverhampton (1/10 @ Newcastle)
  • 13/42 (31%) for 25.46pts (+60.6%) on Polytrack (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield)
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 14.29pts (+37.6%) at Class 5
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 15.56pts (+81.9%) with Hollie Doyle in the saddle

and if we took the first five of those filters, that is Class 5 on Polytrack over trips up to a mile and just considered those sent off shorter than a 7/1 ISP (as the market seems to have a good handle of these runners), we'd end up with the following...

...from which, both Oisin Murphy (3 from 5) and Hollie Doyle (3 from 6) seem to be the jockeys to have most success on these runners with a combined record of...

Suggestion: back all Archie Watson 2yo A/W debutants sent off shorter than 7/1 at up to a mile in Class 5 races on polytrack, paying closer attention to those ridden by either Oisin Murphy or Hollie Doyle.

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Rather than the blanket approach, if we just followed the runners highlighted in the above two suggestions, we'd be looking at 17 winners from 44 runners (38.64% SR) generating 83.85pts profit at Betfair SP, the equivalent of making almost £1.91 profit for every pound invested and that's before adopting the final considerations for each trainer.

Obviously we're dealing with small datasets here, so some caution is advised, but the approaches make good sense in the context of the respective trainers' modi operandi so there is cause for optimism.

Hopefully, we'll soon be able to "live trial" these angles. Fingers crossed and all that, but for now, thanks for reading and I'll be back with more soon.

 - CW

 

 

 

Two-year-old A/W Debutants, Part 1: Trainers

A couple of weeks ago (seems much longer, doesn't it?), I kicked off a series of research pieces with a fairly simple analysis of trainers to follow on the flat with their two-year-old debutants, writes Chris Worrall.

Now I'm going to look at whether the same approach can be taken on the All-Weather here in the UK. The way I've approached this ahead of the resumption of racing, which will hopefully be here as soon as it's deemed safe to do so, is to look back over the previous five full calendar years to get a list of trainers to potentially follow in 2020. With that in mind, I then applied the following criteria to the long list of trainers with such runners since January 1st 2015:

  • a minimum of 30 2yo debutants
  • a minimum strike rate of 10%
  • profit over the five years at Betfair SP
  • and profitable in at least three of the five years

Applying those filters reduces the list to a far more manageable five trainers:

Ralph Beckett, Hugo Palmer, Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian and Archie Watson.

None, admittedly, achieved five profitable years - in fact all bar Beckett scored three from five - giving us some cause for caution. Ralph Beckett did manage to make profit in four years, but his success also carries a cautionary note as his runners went 0 from 19 last year!

Archie Watson has been profitable in 2017, 2018 and 2019, after only having one runner in 2016, so he couldn't really have done any better.

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Their collective figures, pulled from the excellent horseracebase.com, over the last five completed years look like this...

A near one-in-six strike rate and an ROI at Betfair SP in excess of 45p in the pound is something about which to sit up and take notice, even allowing for earlier caveats and a relatively small sample size. The fact of the matter is that the vast majority (almost 75%) of juveniles make their debuts on turf, so we're always going to be working with smaller numbers.

The yearly breakdown since 2015 is as follows...

The first thing I noticed was that 2018 wasn't as strong as the other years and this was replicated in my study on the Flat, so there may well be something to look at regarding 2018's two-year-old crop as a whole.

And here's how the runners were broken down by trainer...

The smaller sample sizes involved make me reluctant to draw down trainer by trainer and I think I'd either cautiously follow all five in a blanket portfolio approach or I'd have to be ruthless and discard Messrs Beckett and Stoute, because their strike rate doesn't appeal. I'd also jettison Roger Varian, because a 17% ROI at Betfair SP might well be steady, but it's not exciting and it did actually reflect a loss at Industry SP, not that any of us use that, surely?

That means I'm left with Hugo Palmer & Archie Watson going forward, whose numbers read as follows...

It's not an angle that is going to keep you busy, but if you're looking for 2 yr old debutants to back on the UK All-Weather scene, then my two go-to trainers are going to be Hugo Palmer & Archie Watson this year with a near two-in-nine strike rate generating more than 55% ROI over the last five years.

I intend to back up this starter piece with a more detailed analysis of each of my five originally highlighted trainers to analyse which of their two-year-old debutants to back based on criteria such as track/track location, surface, distance, jockey, time of year and so on.

- CW