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Stat of the Day, 11th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.20 Wolverhampton : Bavardages @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Raced wide prominent, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, edged left towards finish and beaten by a neck) : I'd say he was forced left rather than him edging over, but the neck margin of defeat wasn't as close as it seems.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the entry in the racecard...

...which tells us instantly that both trainer and jockey have decent records at the track (green C5 icon), so I won't labour those individual points today and move straight on the horse itself, a 3 yr old Colt who was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen 90 days ago. This makes him another qualifier for this angle I used yesterday that almost bagged us another winner...

...yesterday's losing selection hasn't been added to the stats just yet, but that doesn't alter the numbers too much and of those 52 (now 53, of course!) qualifiers...

  • those competing for less than £8k are 18/43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%)
  • on Polytrack : 12/27 (44.4%) for 24.1pts (+89.1%)
  • ridden by Joe Fanning : 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.3pts (+62.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22.9pts (+176%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/10 960%) for 15.03pts (+150.3%)
  • and those coming back from 60-90 days off track are 4 from 8 (50%) for 11.5pts (+143.6%)

I wasn't surprised to see good numbers above for the jockey and track filters, because according to a simple angle I have stored in my Geegeez Query Tool...

this has happened...

and the above impressive 81% ROI at SP (which nobody should be using) is transformed to a brilliant 107.8% at Betfair SP! And of these 71 qualifiers from a really simple angle...

  • male runners are 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.4pts (+100.8%)
  • those racing in fields of 7-9 runners are 12/31 (38.7%) for 68.8pts (+222.1%)
  • those competing for prizes less than £4k are 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.8pts (+143.5%)
  • whilst Class 5 runners are 7/21 (33.3%) for 32.3pts (+153.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG as was offered generally at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!