Posts

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.00 Salisbury : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Went left start, soon led, ridden over 1f out, headed entering final furlong weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this very shortly...

This 4 yr old filly is clearly in great form and her excellent record here at Musselburgh of 2 wins and 4 further places from 8 starts are all over today's 5f trip and her form over the eight races reads 32320211, including 211 since lockdown and she's one from one under today's jockey David Nolan who was aboard last time out.

Trainer Alistair Whillans does well after sending runners back out fairly quickly after making the frame in a bid to strike whilst the iron is hot and since 2016, his Flat handicappers reappearing within 25 days of a top 3 finish are 16 from 98 (16.33% SR) for 17.01pts (+17.36% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 16.55pts (+30.7%) at odds of 6/4 to 7/1
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 29.05pts (+51.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.32pts (+108.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 7/23 (30.4%) for 8.99pts (+39.1%) at 3-10 dslr

...whilst at Class 5/5 on Good/Good to Firm at 6/4 to 7/1, they are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 19.08pts (+86.7%), giving us 112% of the original profit from just 22% of the runners.

Meanwhile, over the same 2016-20 timeframe, the Flat course at Musselburgh has been a happy hunting ground for LTO C&D winners in general with 23 of 76 (30.26% SR) managing to "double up", generating 50.64pts profit at an ROI of 66.6% with the following angles at play today...

  • 20/56 (35.7%) for 52.4pts (+93.6%) on Good/Good to Firm
  • 19/57 (33.3%) for 45.9pts (+80.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 40.8pts (+90.7%) at odds of 13/8 to 5/1
  • 18/42 (42.9%) for 46.2pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 27pts (+93%) from female runners
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 21.9pts (+64.4%) over this 5f C&D
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 13pts (+100%) for 4 yr olds
  • and 5/8 (62.5%) for 27pts (+337.5%) in 2020

...whilst those sent off at 13/8 to 5/1 in races worth less than £4k on Good/Good to Firm ground lees than three weeks since their LTO C&D win are 11 from 18 (61.1% SR) for 31.8pts (+176.6% ROI) and they include...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 17pts (+188.4%) from 4 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13pts (+185.1%) from females
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 11.6pts (+386.7%) this year...

...and each of those C&D LTO stats applied to Amazing Alba's run/win six days ago too! All of which...

...had led me towards... a 1pt win bet on Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!