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Saturday TV Trends: 22nd October 2016

Bundles going on this Saturday as the C4 cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham this Saturday – As always we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle…….Can leading Irish handler Aidan O’Brien, who’s already had a cracking season, land yet another Racing Post Trophy?

 

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Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


2.05 - Scott Dobson 30th Birthday Memorial Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Foaled in February or later
8/9 – Had won over 6f before
8/8 – Won between 1-2 times before
7/9 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/9 – Carried 9-1 in weight
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
6/9 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – March-born foals
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/9 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 36% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 29% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 25% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 22% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 2 from 60 (3%) with his 2 year-olds at the track

 

2.40 - Sunbets.co.uk Top Price Templegate Tips Handicap Cl2 5f CH4

12/12 – Ran 5 or more times that season
11/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/12 – Carried 8-10 or less
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
8/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/12 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
7/12 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/12 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Winners from stall 1
1/12 – Winning mare/filly
Dungannon won the race in 2013 and 2014
The average winning SP in the 9 years is 11/1

 

3.15 - Bet Through The Racing Post App Handicap Cl2 1m4f CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

13/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Carried 9-3 or less
10/14 – Rated between 82 and 87
10/14 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or less
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
9/14 – Drawn in a single-figure stall
9/14 – Aged 3 years-old
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Returned between 9/2 and 6/1 in the betting
5/14 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Argus won the race 12 months ago

 

3.50 – Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 1m

14/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/14 - Foaled in February or later
12/14 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
12/14 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Raced with the last month
10/14 – Winning favourites
10/14 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/14 – Had raced at least twice previously
10/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (5) last time out
5/14 – Won by an Irish-based yard
4/14 – Won by a Montjeu colt
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/14 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/14 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
1/14 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011 & 2012
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 15/2

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

 

2.20 - Worthington´s OCSL Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y CH4

13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Had won at least twice before
11/14 – Had at least 4 runs that season
11/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/14 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
9/14 – Rated 107 or higher
8/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
8/14 – Placed horses from stall 6
6/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/14 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/14 – Won by a filly or mare
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Koora won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

2.50 – Bathwick Tyres Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y CH4

13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/14 – Carried 9-0 or less
11/14 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/14 – Had at least 5 runs that season
10/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Won just 2 or 3 times before
10/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/14 – Ran at either York (4), Ascot  (2) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
4/14 – Ran at York last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)



1.50 - Randox Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Won over at least 3m previously
9/9 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
7/9 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
7/9 – Favourites unplaced
7/9 – Rated 136 or higher
7/9 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
7/9 – First run of the season
6/9 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/9 – Irish bred winners
5/9 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/9 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
4/9 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/9 – Unplaced in their last race
1/9 – Winning Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6.3/1

 

3.00 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
5/7 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Carried 10-12 in weight
4/7 – Irish bred winners
4/7 – Favourites placed
4/7 – Placed in their last race
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
2/7 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1


3.30 – Randox Health Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f199y CH4

Only 1 previous running
Boondooma won the race 12 months ago for trainer Dr Richard Newland
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a +£18 level stakes profit with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is only 1 from 19 with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom George is only 4 from 50 with his chasers at the track
Trainer Emma Lavelle is only 2 from 32 with her chasers at the track
Trainer Henry de Bromhead is only 0 from 25 with his chasers at the track


4.05 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y CH4

Only 7 previous runs
6/7 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/7 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
6/7 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/7 – Had run at Cheltenham before (1 winner)
5/7 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
4/7 – Won last time out
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
3/7 – Irish Bred
2/7 – Mare winners
2/7 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davis
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 10/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Candesta - Won at Beverley two runs ago and then the ground went against him at Bath when it turned soft. Back on the AW today and is a CD winner here. He should, again, be an each-way chance with conditions in his favour."
Julia Feilden

18/10/16 1st 6/1

"Sarabi - Not been herself last two runs. Back to herself in her homework. Worked well in tongue strap latest. Goes on the aw well and looks to have a fair each-way shout at a big price "
Scott Dixon

18/10/16 3rd 20/1

"Zippy - Champion apprentice Josie Gordon is back in the plate and the softer ground will help the pairs chances. Zippy has run her two best races with give in the ground and ran well on faster than ideal ground last time out at Brighton - therefore, should have every chance this afternoon in a race that lacks much depth and hopefully Zippy can shut the other runners up! "
Daniel Kubler

18/10/16 1st 9/4

"Fact Of The Matter - Won on handicap chase debut over 2m4f but got caught out on a tight track the last day at Huntingdon. Stepped up in trip this time, he looks the unexposed horse in the race and if all 8 stand their ground then looks a cracking each-way option to us."
Jamie Snowden

18/10/16 1st 9/2

Sat TV Trends: 25th June 2016

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse - running on their AW track for the first time, while the C4 cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - as always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4 and RUK)


2.45 - Tangent Office Furniture Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
11/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
9/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.20 - Cambridge Magazine Supporting The AHT Empress Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Never raced at the track before
13/14 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
12/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
8/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/14 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/14 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.55 - John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

12/14 – Won over 7f before
12/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
12/14 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/14 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
Markaz won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2


Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)


2.30 - Betfred Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Had won over 6f before
13/14 – Unplaced last time out
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Yet to win a Group race
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/14 – Aged 5 or older
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/14 – Won last time out
Danzeno won the race in 2014 and was third 12 months ago
8 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just won winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings (and only 3 horses placed)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.05 - Betfred TV Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

14/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Rated 90 or less
10/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14- Ran at York last time out
2/14 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/14 – Won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 10-15

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.40 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y CH4

No previous runnings


4.15 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4


Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Northumberland Plate Trends

13/14  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
13/14 – Finished fifth or better last time out
12/14 – Came from stall 14 or lower
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/14 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 8 years)
3/14 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 14/1

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 10 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Note: Used to be run on the turf


Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)


5.20 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f


Recent Irish Derby Winners

2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

13/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
11/13 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/13 – Won a Group race before
11/13 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Failed to win their last race
9/13 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/13 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
6/13 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/13 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 4/1

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Coiste Bodhar - Will certainly want the ground to ease further as I feel he is best suited to good-to-soft, or softer. Didn't handle the track at Newcastle and it wasn't soft enough at Nottingham when he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Well at home and if the ground is on the slow side he would have a decent e/w claim."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 1st 16/1

"Sarabi - Ran a solid race over 6f last time out after a break. Looks like she will appreciate the step back down to 5f and the ground is of no concern today. Currently looks good each-way value."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 2nd 20/1

 

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