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Stat of the Day, 1st August 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.55 Pontefract : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Towards rear, headway from over 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting from the racecard...

...we see a 4 yr old filly who won last time out (over class, course and distance on good to soft under today's jockey) 20 days ago. She has top billing on our speed ratings and hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C5), as does her jockey, Paul Mulrennan (C1 C5), so let's look at all three, starting with...

...the horse, a 4 yr old filly who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts at odds shorter than 5/1, she's 2 from 2 at this trip and also 2 from 2 in fields bigger than 12 runners.

Next, our jockey, Paul Mulrennan who is 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 40pts (+41.6% ROI) here at Hamilton since the start of the 2017 season and has ridden 7 winners from 46 (15.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+33.8% ROI) this year alone for...

...today's trainer, Michael Dods who has a good record here with runners to deemed to "have a chance". Basically, since the start of 2015, his horses sent off at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 (an odds range where most of my personal betting takes place) at Hamilton are 14 from 56 (25% SR) for 29.3pts (+52.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 38.64pts (+99.1%) during July to September
  • 12/40 (30%) for 38pts (+95.1%) over 6f to 1m4f
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.6pts (+56.6%) in handicaps
  • 9/20 (45%) for 33.1pts (+165.5%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 8/25 (32%) for 28.3pts (+113.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 5.7pts (+29.9%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.3pts (+236.4%) with 4 yr olds...

...whilst handicappers running during July to September over 6f-1m4f at 11-20 dslr are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 22.8pts (+253.3% ROI), including Antico Lady's run/win last time out.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 5.40am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.