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Stat of the Day, 6th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.05 Lingfield : Corvair @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Chased leaders, ridden 2f out, faded inside final 100 yards)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astrozone @ 9/1 or 17/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Saturday is generally a pretty tough day for us guys who stick our necks out each morning and publicly suggest a horse is worth a second look. Today is probably tougher still with the obvious lack of recent form/data to go on.

With that in mind, I've opted to seek one with a chance at a decent price, which won't upset me if it doesn't win. I'll keep the stats fairly simple and I'll also graphically (not up to Matt's standard, mind) demonstrate why I think we could have a chance.

Astrozone is a 3 yr old filly who has made the frame in each of her last six runs, all at this class (5) and trip (5f) and has proved versatile regarding going/surface. She was a winner two starts ago (runner-up LTO) off a mark of 66 and is eased a pound today back to an OR of 65.

She is trained by Bryan Smart whose modest figures since the start of 2017 of...

...are dramatically improved to...

...when looking at his sub-12/1 handicappers here at Newcastle with an Impact Value of 2.12. These 54 runners, when assessed against today's conditions are...

  • 11 from 48 (22.9%) for 36.4pts (+75.9%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 6 from 24 (25%) for 11.92pts (+49.7%) after finishing 2nd to 4th LTO
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 25.6pts (+127.7%) off a mark of 56-65
  • and 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 24.31pts (+347.3%) after a 3 to 6 month layoff

She's drawn in stall 9 which seems to be smack bang in the middle of the where the pace is expected to be

in a contest where being drawn high also seems favourable as shown in the pace/draw heat map

There's enough there in the data/graphics to suggest we should at least get a good run for our money at a nice price...

...hence me going for...a 1pt win bet on Astrozone @ 9/1 or 17/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and 888Sport/Hills respectively at 8.15am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!