Posts

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Lillington @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Prominent, hampered 5th, led after 4 out, challenged after next, stayed on well to win by 1.5 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £6108 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old mare had a respectable record (32128) over hurdles in 2017 before taking a 345-day break. She then returned to action 32 days ago at Hexham, when she was a 5 lengths winner, staying on well, on her chasing debut, also at Class 4 over 2m4½f on Soft ground and ridden (as she always has been) by today's jockey Henry Brooke.

This suggests that she should feel at home under today's conditions, as she aims to give the sire Ask another winner. To date, his offspring are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 22.7pts (+80.9% ROI) over fences, mainly in Ireland but with some success here too. With respect to today's race, those progeny of Ask are...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.14pts (+118.5%) as 6 yr olds
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 16.63pts (+127.9%) as females
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.46pts (+306.6%) in UK Class 4 contests
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 18.42pts (+307%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 27.31pts (+546.2%) over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f

This particular "daughter" is trained by Martin Todhunter, who enjoys coming here up the M6 from his South Cumbria base, as his runners are 10 from 54 (18.5% SR) for 23.64pts (+43.8% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last 5 years, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 12/1 (my preferred starting point for trainer based micros) wining 10 of 41 (24.4%) for 36.64pts at an ROI of some 89.4% and these include...

  • those who raced in the last 45 days : 9/31 (29%) for 29.32pts (+94.6%)
  • chasers are 6/25 (24%) for 21.1pts (+84.4%)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f/2m5.5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 31.42pts (+224.4%)
  • in November : 3/10 (30%) for 1.65pts (+16.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.7%)

...and from the above...handicap chasers at Evens to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+60% ROI), from which LTO winners are 3/4 975%) for 14.79pts (+369.7%) and those running in November are 2/4 (50%) for 5pts (+125%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & Coral at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £649.28 

45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1

Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2

Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1

Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)

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Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)

Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly.  The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.

Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager.  Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon.  Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly.  I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.

Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period.  Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Elector (soft)

 

3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from.  Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour.  Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.

Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:

1/1—Invincible Army (soft)

1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)

1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)

1/1—Heartache (good to firm)

 

4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting.  Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today.  The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago.  I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites.  Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected.  Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning!  Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.

Favourite factor:  Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap): 

1/1—Dathanna (soft)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals.  Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference.  APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing.  The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Appeared (good to firm)

1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)

1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd 2f out, ridden and no chance with winner over 1f out, plugged on)

Next up is Friday's...

5.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6, Amateur Riders Handicap for 4yo+ over 1msf on Good ground worth £3369 to the winner... 

Why?

In a race seemingly full of out-of-form horses, our boy's 5 length success at Haydock LTO 15 days ago stands out like a relatively sore thumb. That was another amateur riders' contest, but at a higher grade than today and the jockey from last time, Emily Easterby, retains the ride seeking her fourth win on this horse.

Emily doesn't get too many opportunities to display her talents, but over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're halfway through this one!), she has won 7 of 47 (14.9% SR) Flat handicaps for profits of 13.22pts at a healthy ROI of 28.1%, and of those 47 rides...

  • Class 6 : 4/24 (16.6%) for 6.98pts (+29.1%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/19 (21.1%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at 1m2f to 1m4f : 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.17pts (+209%)
  • and in Class 6 Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.98pts (+158.2%)

As for today's trainer, Emily's father, Tim Easterby : he's been in decent touch of late with 25 winners from 139 (18% SR) generating profits of 54.47pts (+39.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long term his Class 4 to 6 runners here at Ayr are 24/153 (15.7% SR) for 36pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • males at 20/111 (18%) for 44.2pts (+39.8%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.18pts (+46.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.22pts (+38%)

...and male LTO winners running 11-20 days later are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 11pts (+157.2% ROI)...

The LTO winner stats are interesting (to me, anyway!), as in 2018 alone Tim's LTO winners are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.49pts (+39.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 13.4pts (+63.8%) this Flat season
  • 6/12 (50%) for 19.97pts (166.4%) just 11-20 days after their last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.16pts (+74.2%) on good ground
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.96pts (+99.4%) who won by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) f0r 10.08pts (+252%) at Class 6
  • and 1/1 for 8.46pts here at Ayr...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 9.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

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Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.40 Leicester : Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Took keen hold, held up tracking leaders on inside, pushed along over 4f out, hung right 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

4.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 10 yr old mare won back to back handicaps in August & September 2016 off marks of 69 and then a career-best 75 before a further 6lb hike after the second win gave her an Official Rating in the 80's. Sadly, she wasn't (and still isn't) an 80+ rated horse and this manifested itself in a string of 16 defeats, mainly off marks of the mid 70's and higher before finally getting back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh 16 days ago.

In fairness, since dropping down the weights, she has looked revitalised this season, finishing as a runner-up at Carlisle in May when only headed inside the final furlong over 2m1f despite needing a run after a 217 day absence, before dropping back in trip by 3f for that LTO Musselburgh win 12 days later, defying a step up in class to Class 4.

She's admittedly up 2lbs to a mark of 72 (and I'd not want her much higher than this), but she does drop back a furlong and is back down at Class 5, so this mark should still be within her grasp today, especially based on past performances, where she has...

  • 10 wins & 11 places from 46 in handicaps
  • 7 wins & 8 places from 37 going left handed
  • 9 wins & 5 places from 32 in the months of June to August
  • 6 wins & 5 places from 20 runs in Scotland
  • 4 wins & 5 places from 17 at Class 5
  • 7 wins and 2 places from 14 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins & 3 places from 9 runs here at Ayr
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 at 1m5f
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 3 under today's jockey Rachel Richardson.

Now, it's fair to say that trainer Donald Whillans hasn't really got the best out of her just yet, but I don't believe that's anything he's done wrong himself. Most of this mare's defeats have been down to her running in contests she was simply carrying too much weight to win. It should be noted that three other trainers have also failed to get her to win off a mark higher than 75 in the past.

That said, this mare loves it here at Ayr as shown above and Donald's own record here isn't too shabby either with 10 winners from 50 (20% SR) since the start of the 2012 campaign yielding 187pts profit at a tremendous ROI of 374% with his handicappers winning 9 of 38 923.7%) for 167.6pts (+441.1%) including...

  • 8 from 30 (26.7%) for 31.5pts (+105%) after a break of 16-75 days
  • 8 from 20 (40%) for 41.5pts (+207.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 22pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 3 from 13 (23.1%) for 13.4pts (+103%) at Class 5...

...whilst those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 competing for less than £4k after a break of 16 to 75 days are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 31pts (+281.8% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 19.4pts (+277%)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOGwhich was on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.40 Leicester : Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Took keen hold, held up tracking leaders on inside, pushed along over 4f out, hung right 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

4.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 10 yr old mare won back to back handicaps in August & September 2016 off marks of 69 and then a career-best 75 before a further 6lb hike after the second win gave her an Official Rating in the 80's. Sadly, she wasn't (and still isn't) an 80+ rated horse and this manifested itself in a string of 16 defeats, mainly off marks of the mid 70's and higher before finally getting back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh 16 days ago.

In fairness, since dropping down the weights, she has looked revitalised this season, finishing as a runner-up at Carlisle in May when only headed inside the final furlong over 2m1f despite needing a run after a 217 day absence, before dropping back in trip by 3f for that LTO Musselburgh win 12 days later, defying a step up in class to Class 4.

She's admittedly up 2lbs to a mark of 72 (and I'd not want her much higher than this), but she does drop back a furlong and is back down at Class 5, so this mark should still be within her grasp today, especially based on past performances, where she has...

  • 10 wins & 11 places from 46 in handicaps
  • 7 wins & 8 places from 37 going left handed
  • 9 wins & 5 places from 32 in the months of June to August
  • 6 wins & 5 places from 20 runs in Scotland
  • 4 wins & 5 places from 17 at Class 5
  • 7 wins and 2 places from 14 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins & 3 places from 9 runs here at Ayr
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 at 1m5f
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 3 under today's jockey Rachel Richardson.

Now, it's fair to say that trainer Donald Whillans hasn't really got the best out of her just yet, but I don't believe that's anything he's done wrong himself. Most of this mare's defeats have been down to her running in contests she was simply carrying too much weight to win. It should be noted that three other trainers have also failed to get her to win off a mark higher than 75 in the past.

That said, this mare loves it here at Ayr as shown above and Donald's own record here isn't too shabby either with 10 winners from 50 (20% SR) since the start of the 2012 campaign yielding 187pts profit at a tremendous ROI of 374% with his handicappers winning 9 of 38 923.7%) for 167.6pts (+441.1%) including...

  • 8 from 30 (26.7%) for 31.5pts (+105%) after a break of 16-75 days
  • 8 from 20 (40%) for 41.5pts (+207.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 22pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 3 from 13 (23.1%) for 13.4pts (+103%) at Class 5...

...whilst those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 competing for less than £4k after a break of 16 to 75 days are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 31pts (+281.8% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 19.4pts (+277%)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOGwhich was on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £45.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

There is no breakdown for the race by race Placepot details for Monday – Tote glitch on the day last year by the look of things – back to normal (whatever that is!) for Fontwell tomorrow….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Nine Below Zero), 7 (Rock Of Estonia) & 2 (Formidable Kit)

Leg 2 (6.15): 1 (Queen Of Bermuda) & 6 (Leading Spirit)

Leg 3 (6.45): 2 (Buridan) & 1 (Buffer Zone)

Leg 4 (7.15): 7 (Son Of Africa), 6 (Louis De Palma) & 3 (Holmeswood)

Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (What A Welcome) & 3 (Chance To Dream)

Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Cassini) & 12 (Staplegrove)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.45: NINE BELOW ZERO won the juvenile event on the card last year and with Ralph Beckett’s Showcasing gelding meeting trouble in running at the first time of asking this season, I’m willing to give him another chance at around the 8/1 mark this evening.  ROCK OF EASTONIA is feared most, albeit FORMIDABLE KIT also looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged when this race was run as the Placepot finale.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)

1/1—Rock Of Estonia (good)

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1/3—Iconic Knight (soft)

 

6.15: QUEEN OF BERMUDA ultimately ran out an impressive winner at Thirsk on her second start having also been favourite to land a warm event at Ascot on debut.  Her Thirsk victory wasn’t always on the cards in the race as the Exceed And Excel filly had to be shake up a few times before reaching the business end of the contest by which time, she was impressing with each stride.  Well placed here by William Haggas, the March foal should take the beating.  The two Godolphin runners LEADING SPIRIT (second colours) and FLY THE NEST should offer most resistance close home, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have secured gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

6.45: There should not be a great deal of daylight by the time that the jamstick has been reached between BURIDAN and BUFFER ZONE, though I’m sticking with Richard Hannon’s first named raider given his course victory under fast conditions at the first time of asking last year.  Only SWIFT CHILL is offering any type of resistance on the exchanges as far as their rivals are concerned, whereby the first two horses mentioned in dispatches will do for me against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

 

7.15: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, which unfortunately only eliminates the bottom three horses from my viewpoint.  The pick of the remaining eight contenders will hopefully prove to be SON OF AFRICA, LOUIS DE PALMA and HOLMESWOOD, the trio representing some value against Silent Echo at the top of the handicap.  I readily admit that Peter Hedger’s potential favourite (Silent Echo) deserves to be a popular order but from a Placepot perspective, my trio should offer us decent efforts for our collective monies.  SON OF AFRICA is listed first on account of his other victories at top tracks such as Sandown, Newmarket and Goodwood, aside from posting his success here at Windsor on fast ground back in 2014.

Favourite factor: Just one (3/1) favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, whilst only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.  I wonder if it was a bookmaker which dreamed up this series of events which seemingly haunts Windsor cards on a weekly basis?

Record of the four course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/2—Silent Echo (good)

1/1—Louis De Palma (good to firm)

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

1/2—Mullionheir (good)

 

7.45: Patrick Chamings (WHAT A WELCOME) and John Best (CHANCE TO DREAM) have a chance to lord it over some big named trainers here with their representatives both looking to have first rate chances of claiming Placepot positions at the very least.  I’m finding it difficult to split the pair to be honest whereby my Placepot cash is the only stake involved in this contest.  Zamperini is taken the follow the pair home to secure the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural market leader prevailed at odds of 5/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

2/3—Chance To Dream (good & good to soft)

1/9—Ravenous (good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden boasts a 2/3 record at the venue this season but unless a dead heat occurs here via his two representatives CASSINI and STAPLEGROVE, John’s ratio will be reduced even if one of his inmates wins! Out of interest, LOTHARIO is attracting support on the exchanges in the dead of night, though three-year-olds invariably win these mixed maiden/novice events, especially at this time of the year.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

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Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.