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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

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1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Huntingdon : Not A Role Model @ 5/2 non-runner (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

Our third go at starting the new week is via Wednesday's...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap (3yo+) over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

An interesting booking here for an 8 yr old gelding making a UK debut after as many as 74 runs in Ireland, including a decent third place finish at Cork just five days ago.

Of those runs in Ireland, he is...

  • 5/43 (11.6%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 5/25 (20%) over a 6f trip
  • 2/7 (28.6%) within a week of his last run
  • and also 2/7 (28.6%) in the month of May.

He should benefit from Ben Curtis getting ride today, as Ben is not only in good nick right now (rode a winner here for today's trainer yesterday), but he also rides the Ayr track well, winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) since the start of the 2016 season.

But the real numbers are derived from our horse making a first start in the UK, because since the start of 201, in UK Flat handicaps, Irish bred horses who last ran in Ireland are 74/634 (11.7% SR) for 141.5pts (+22.3% ROI) backed blindly, whilst in the context of this race, those 634 "Irish raiders" are...

  • 58/365 (15.9%) for 194.7pts (+53.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 63/343 (18.4%) for 65.1pts (+19%) at odds of 5/4 to 10/1
  • 39/261 (14.9%) for 158.2pts (+60.6%) 4 to 25 days since they last ran
  • 31/183 (16.9%) for 128.7pts (+70.4%) here in Scotland
  • 24/168 (14.3%) for 56.7pts (+33.7%) in the months of April/May
  • 28/149 (18.8%) for 24.7pts (+16.6%) at Class 6
  • 22/124 (17.7%) for 33.5pts (+27%) lost by just 0.25 to 3 lengths LTO
  • 11/107 (10.3%) for 45.6pts (+42.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 18/107 (16.8%) for 25.4pts (+23.7%) who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG  which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

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2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st April

NEWBURY – APRIL 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)

Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1

Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1

Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)

Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)

Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)

Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

 

1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.

Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago).  COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest.  If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)

2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)

3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum.  NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two.  Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions.  Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame.  Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Hikmaa (soft)

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3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately.  Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':

1/1—Expert Eye (good)

1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)

1/1—James Garfield (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago.  The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)

 

4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme.  So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale.  My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:

1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Friday 20th April

NEWBURY – APRIL 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 61.8% units went through – 10/3* - 7/1 – 5/1

Race 2: 77.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/4** - 5/1 – 11/4**

Race 3: 71.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 7/2

Race 4: 16.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 28/1 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 5: 55.5% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 7/4* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 4/1 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Dave Dexter), 9 (Well Done Fox) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Qaysar), 11 (Tallow) & 8 (Rogue)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lah Ti Dah) & 1 (Arcadian Cat)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (A Monetofmadness), 2 (Just Glamorous) & 7 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Jukebox Jive), 9 (Champagne Champ) & 6 (Injam)

Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 4 (Bombyx)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Ralph Beckett cannot do a great deal wrong at present (recent ratio of 6/16) though his first time out runners in the juvenile sector during the last five years offer a strike rate of just 11% via five winners.  That said, this does not appear to be the strongest of two-year-old contests by Newbury standards whereby Ralph’s Stimulation colt DAVE DEXTER is included in the Placepot mix.  The money (what there was of it overnight) was for WELL DONE FOX, whilst AZOR AHAI completes my trio against the remaining seven runners.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed during the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, the other winner during the ‘recent’ period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.

 

2.25: With Richard Hannon having struck form of late and holding a decent chance in the opener with Well Done Fox, the trainer will be fancying his chances of extending the good run here, having declared both QAYSAR (dual winner from just three starts) and ROGUE who is the lone course winner in the line up.   The latter named raider looks a tad overpriced at 20/1 in a few places at the time of writing, albeit Richard’s Choisir colt QAYSAR deserves his place at the head of the market at the time of writing.  Arguably, I should not eliminate stable companion Oliver Reed from my list but I fancy the afore mentioned pair today.  TALLOW is the only horse from the current market front runners to have won on turf which is obviously a positive pointer towards the William Haggas raider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader.  Indeed, the last two gold medallists scored at 25/1 and 14/1, whilst just four of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.

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Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/3—Rogue (good)

 

3.00: Markets like this can prove volatile and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury.  That said, there has to be some significance in the declaration of John Gosden’s Dubawi filly LAH TI DAH who is on offer at 33/1 for the Epsom Oaks as I pen this column.  John has enjoyed tremendous success at this meeting in recent years, yet Frankie’s mount is the only stable representative on the card this afternoon.  The experience already gained by ARCADIAN CAT could take Ralph Beckett’s Kittens Joy filly into the frame again.

Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years, nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst only one of the last four jollies has reached the frame.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and three of the five relevant entries today make appeal in one way or another, namely A MOMENTOFMADNESS, JUST GLAMOROUS and BLUE DE VEGA.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  That said, the each way 9/1 price of JUST GLAMOROUS is ‘winning the day’ as I consider a bet in this event aside from our favourite wager which covers the first six races on the card.  Most unusually, Ron Harris runs nine horses on the day, though only Just Glamorous has been directed towards Newbury, the other eight contenders all plying their trade at Bath this evening.  For the record, Ron has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: The last six winners have been returned at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include two winning favourites. That said, the other four recent market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

4.05: Three each way types grab my attention in this event who are listed in order of preference as JUKEBOX JIVE, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and INJAM.  Anthony Honeyball’s first named raider has the assistance of John Egan in the saddle and this underrated pilot can add another winner to his tally which has largely gone unnoticed down the years.  If you look through the record books, you will surprised just how many trainers use this jockey, resulting in really impressive strike rates for the said handlers of which Anthony is one.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good to soft)

1/1—Keep In Line (soft)

 

4.40: John Gosden has won the last three renewals of this event and the fact that the trainer is not represented this time around has been received as a major blow.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that the connections of TIGRE DU TERRE and BOMBYX are the likeliest beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years.  That said, the last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 20th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

9.15 Newcastle : Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, weakened final furlong)

We now continue with Friday's...

3.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darius des Bois @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  3m0.5f Handcap Hurdle (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £10007 to the winner...

Why?

An unusual pick for me, in so much that it comes from one of the "big" yards whose runners are generally avoided by me as they're overbet and as a result tend to lack "value" (whoops, there's the contentious v word again!). However, I think that 3/1 BOG looks too big here for this one, hence my readiness to back it : time will, of course, be the judge.

For the record, we've got a 5 yr old gelding making just his 5th appearance and he comes here off the back of a win on handicap debut over this trip on soft ground at Newbury last time out four weeks ago. He hit the front from a fair way out, saw off his rivals and stayed strongly to score by five lengths. Extra weight/class make this a tougher ask, but the way he stayed on added to better ground here should mean he's competitive at worst.

The third placed horse that day (5.75 lengths back) has since been beaten by just a length at Fontwell a fortnight ago, whilst the 8th placed horse (26.75 lengths behind our pick!) was a winner on that same Fontwell card.

And now to the "big gun" and it's no less than Nicky Henderson, who always has winners, but isn't generally profitable to follow for reasons highlighted earlier, but he is 11 from 62 (17.7% SR) for 27pts (+43.6% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests since 2011 with horses who were handicap hurdle winners LTO 6 to 30 days earlier, from which...

  • those with 5 or fewer handicap runs : 8/44 (18.2%) for 28.6pts (+65.1%)
  • those with fewer than 10 career starts : 7/38 (18.4%) for 18.2pts (+47.9%)
  • those stepping up a class : 4/20 (20%) for 23.3pts (+116.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.3pts (+95.9%)
  • in April : 3/16 (18.75%) for 15.8pts (+98.7%)
  • and those racing beyond 2m5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.7pts (+162.1%)

So, that was me set for the bet, as they say and then I glanced across the card and saw no sign of Nico de Boinville, so I scurried back to the records with the thought that Noel Fehily doesn't ride many for Hendo and I was right, but pleasantly surprised to read that the pair are actually 23 from 70 (32.9% SR) for 20.2pts (+28.9% ROI) together, backed blindly! This, of course, is excellent news and even more so when you see that of those 70 runners...

  • hurdlers are 16/49 (32.7%) for 27.9pts (+57%)
  • those priced at 4/1 and shorter are 21/38 (55.3%) for 17.6pts (+46.3%)
  • favourites are 14/23 (60.9%) for 5.16pts (+22.4%)
  • hurdlers priced at 4/1 and shorter are 14/25 (56%) for 17.27pts (+69.1%)
  • favourites priced at 4/1 and shorter are 14/22 (63.6%) for 6.16pts (+28%)
  • and hurdle favourites priced at 4/1 and shorter are 7/12 (58.3%) for 2.84pts at an ROI of 23.7%

Unusually more wordy than numerical (I'm not sure numbery is a word) today, but...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Darius des Bois @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Totesport at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 10 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £317.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Shambra), 3 (Royal Zanzibar) & 5 (Erik Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Al Shahir), 8 (The Dubai Way) & 9 (Notre Ami)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Whatswrongwithyou), 13 (Friday Night Light) & 8 (Highway One O One)

Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Posh Trish) & 7 (Queens Cave)

Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Tanit River) & 2 (Pete The Feat)

Leg 6 (4.10): 4 (The Last But One), 3 (Silverhow) & 1 (Rayvin Black)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: There is some realistic positive money emerging for ERIK LE ROUGE on the exchanges at the time of writing, whilst it’s worth noting that Nick Williams (for once in his life) has declared more runners on the card than any other trainer.  I’ll wager that Nick will gain a winner somewhere down the line but whether it is in the first event remains to be seen.  Certainly on the form book, the likes of SHAMBRA and recent soft ground winner ROYAL ZANZIBAR should be there or thereabouts turning for home.

Favourite factor: Three one of the five favourites to date (winners at 5/2 & Evens included) have secured Placepot positions to date.

 

1.50: Six-year-olds have won fourteen contests during the last twenty years (including ten of the last fourteen) and with eight of the eighteen declarations hailing from the vintage, six-year-olds are 5/4 mark to land the spoils before form is taken into consideration.  I’m opting for AL SHAHIR and THE DUBAI WAY this time around. Nick Gifford holds a leading chance in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival on Wednesday and there will be worse outsiders on todays’ card than heavy ground course winner NOTRE AMI I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five of the other eighteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in second event:

1/1—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: I’m duty bound to report that twelve of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less (as have 39 of the last 55 win and placed horses) which eliminates most of the field this time around.  The top two horses in the market have both won with plenty of moisture in the ground, whereby WHATSWRONGWITHYOU and FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT have to be respected.  That said, six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests and with Chris Gordon having held two entries on the card for HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, I am duty bound to stand by the trainer who landed one of my finest days in memory when scoring with all five runners on the Monday before Cheltenham last year, something I had ‘offered’ to my followers before the trainer pulled of his nigh 1,000/1 accumulator!  HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has not raced on ground this deep but there was plenty to like about his soft ground Boxing Day win the last day.  Charis has secured one gold and five silver medals via his last seven runners for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged during the last eighteen years, though just three of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Imperial Cup:

2/2—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the fourteen contests and the pick of this year’s seven relevant raiders will hopefully prove to be POSH TRISH and QUEENS CAVE.  The ‘dark horse’ in the field however is undoubtedly URCA DE LIMA and I truly wish that I had enough room for Anthony Honeyball’s raider to be included in my permutation.  What I suggest (above) and what I ultimately do however, is another matter entirely!  I am aware (as always I hope) of different budgets affecting each one us, especially with Cheltenham around the corner.

Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, whilst we had to wait until 2012 for the first (and only) successful (2/1) market leader to emerge.

 

3.35:  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more and that figure will probably be increased this year with six of the seven runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend.  Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby TANIT RIVER is the first name on the team sheet, especially having won on his only start at Sandown over the distance on soft ground.  PETE THE FEAT was a little disappointing at Exeter the last day but having won 4/14 on heavy ground and loving every inch of this Esher circuit, I think it’s worth giving the old boy another chance in this grade/company.  Last year’s winner Shanroe Sands will find the ground much softer on this occasion I fancy.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last twenty years, whilst 13/23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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1/3—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/7—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Tanit River (soft)

 

4.10: A ‘win only’ Placepot finale which temps fate with yours truly including three of the four runners from a Placepot viewpont.  Listed in order of preference, the trio is named as THE LAST BUT ONE, SILVERHOW and RAYVIN BLACK.  Readers are asked to organise ‘British queues’ outside bookmaker outlets this morning as they strive to get on the horse I have left out of the equation, namely Diamant Bleu!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/2—Silverhow (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more on the Sandown card on Saturday:

5 runners—Nick Williams

3—Nicky Henderson

3—Charlie Longsdon

3—Oliver Sherwood

3—Colin Tizzard

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Lucy Wadham

+ 46 different trainers who saddled two or less….

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £349.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Hereford: £29.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £200.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £119.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)

Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation.  Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season.  We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals.  The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest!  That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires.  Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY.  The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable!  Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals.  Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Briac (heavy)

1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)

 

3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things.  SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period.  Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field.  Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning.  I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/2—More Buck’s (good)

3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

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1/5—Arbeo (heavy)

 

4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat.  Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested.  For that reason,  the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)

1/5—Darebin (soft)

 

4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30

3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points

2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11

2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13

2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8

2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2

2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71

2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6

2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.45 Newcastle : Montague @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led, ridden over 1f out, kept on and headed towards finish.

And now we turn to Friday's...

3.25 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charmant @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £5,003 to the winner...

Why?

A likeable and consistent 6 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions on offer today. Five top three finishes (including 2 wins) from his least seven outings over a 13 month period suggests he'll be there or thereabouts once more again today and of the two unplaced efforts, one was a 3 length defeat in a tight contest and the other was up two grades at Class 2.

In these last 7 races, he has won here at Ayr, he has over over today's trip, he has won on both soft and heavy ground, both wins were under today's jockey Steven Fox who is very good for his 5lb claim here, he has won at Class 4 and both wins came wearing a hood and his last visit to this track was three starts ago when he won here over course and distance under Steven Fox at this grade on heavy ground wearing a hood!

He's trained by James Ewart who has had 2 winners and 2 placers from his half dozen runners over the past fortnight, whilst here at Ayr his runners priced at 6/1 and shorter are 5/12 (41.67% SR) for 12.56pts (+104.7% ROI) profit over the last 12 months.

More longer-term / generally, blindly backing his handicap hurdlers has been a profitable venture over the last few years. In fact, had you backed all such entrants since the start of 2015, you'd be looking at 35 winners from 193 (18.1% SR) for 145.22pts (+75.2% ROI) profit with the following datasets of relevance today...

  • using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 18/83 (21.7%) for 94.75pts (+114.2%)
  • at 2m to 2m1.5f : 15/81 (18.5%) for 52.87pts (+65.3%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 16/72 (22.2%) for 49.62pts (+68.9%)
  • on Soft : 7/46 (15.2%) for 38.35pts (+83.4%)
  • ridden by Steven Fox : 7/35 (20%) for 67.12pts (+191.8%)
  • ridden by a 5lb claimer over 2m to 2m1.5f : 10/32 (31.25%) for 77.7pts (+242.8%)
  • ridden by Steven Fox claiming 5lbs over 2m to 2m1.5f : 6/14 (42.9%) for 73.61pts (+525.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.54pts (+102.3%)

And a final layer of confidence is gleaned from the fact that since the start of 2017, handicap jumpers sired by Balko are 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 10.3pts (+25.1% ROI) profit on ground deemed soft or softer, with those racing at the shorter trips (ie no further than 2m1f) winning 8 of 21 (38.1% SR) for 22.82pts at an ROI of some 108.6%.

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Charmant @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 26th February

PLUMPTON - FEBRUARY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.30 (8 favourites: 5 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Royal Ruby) & 11 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Holbrook Park), 2 (Monmore Present) & 3 (Ticket To Ride)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Shroughmore Lass), 7 (Sheelbewhatsheelbe) & 1 (Sue Be It)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Not Never) & 2 (Doc Clover)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Alf ‘N’ Dor), 1 (Greyed A), 3 (Invicta Lake) & 4 (Little Windmill)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Soulsaver) & 2 (Double Accord)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: In terms of potential snow, this meeting should just about finish before the threat of the worsening conditions take hold, notwithstanding the fact that there is an 8.00 inspection this morning. Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight renewals, with the older raiders again looking to have the edge this time around with ROYAL RUBY and MISS ADVENTURE having been declared.  Only The Premier Celtic can be expected to keep tabs on the market leaders until the ‘taps are turned on’ turning for home, according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite stats: Three of the last five market leaders have prevailed, whilst a top priced winner of 7/2 emerged during the period.  For the record, the other two favourites secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: There are dribs and drabs of interest on the overnight exchanges at double figure ‘prices’ for TICKET TO RIDE which forces me to include Polly Gundry’s representative in the Placepot mix, previously having held the belief that HOLBROOK PARK and MINMORE PRESENT would be enough to see us through to the third leg of our favourite wager. At 4/11 with some firms at the time of writing, exchange players can currently back HOLBROOK PARK at 4/6 which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite stats: This is a new race on the Plumpton card which is unlikely to be repeated next year given the lack of interest by trainers.

 

3.00: Last time out (soft ground) winner SHEELBEWHATSHEELBE takes on SHROUGHMORE LASS from Henry Oliver’s in form yard, whilst an alternative each way option to the likely front pair in the betting is SUE BE IT.  The latter named raider is entered into the mix having attracted money overnight with a great number of firms as well via ‘exchange activity’.

Favourite stats: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the period.

 

3.35: DOC CLOVER is the market leader in the trade press this morning, though I doubt if that scenario will be in place by the time that flag fall arrives at least, not by what is taking place ‘early doors’ today. Gary Moore’s four time winner NOT NEVER has taken over as the favourite at the time of writing which is hardly surprising, given his course and distance victory the last day, albeit that success was gained under heavy conditions.  There have been bits and pieces of support for three of the ‘outsiders’ as I conclude this column, though they have plenty to do ‘on the book’.  The pick of those ‘speculative’ types could prove to be ZEN MASTER.

Favourite stats: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Boru’s Brook (heavy)

1/1—Not Never (heavy)

1/2—Hope’s Whisper (soft)

 

4.05: There are so many ifs, buts and maybe’s in this event that including all four runners into the Placepot mix appears to be the only route to take, hoping that the horse with the least units prevails.  If forced to make a decision from a win perspective, the oh so tentative vote would be awarded to Alf ‘N’ Dor, if only because Peter Bowen has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.

Favourite stats: Four of the last five favourites have secured Placepot positions in this event, statistics which include three (odds on) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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2/14—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

2/6—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

4.40: SOULSAVER appears to be the safest option in the ‘lucky last’, with trainer Anthony Honeyball enjoying a great season via 33 winners to date, statistics which boast a 25% strike rate which any leading trainer would settle for.  The only problem is that Anthony has also declared DOUBLE ACCORD in the contest.

Favourite stats: The inaugural 6/4 favourite duly prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (4/14 – loss of 4) – 17/54 – loss of 6

3—David Bridgwater (1/11 – loss of 7) – 12/69 – loss of 29

3—Chris Gordon (4/27 – slight loss) – 24/154 +21

3—Gary Moore (12/55 +7) – 55/273 – loss of 11

3—Pat Phelan (0/3) – 0/31

2—Neil King (1/12 – loss of 8) – 9/67 – loss of 28

2—Charlie Mann (1/3 – slight loss) – 8/26 +26

2—Neil Mulholland (4/18 – loss of 7) – 11/73 – loss of 20

2—Daniel O’Brien (1/3 +1) – 2/56 – loss of 44

2—Henry Oliver (0/1) – 0/2

2—Michael Roberts (0/4) – 2/30 +9

2—Fiona Shaw (0/1) – 0/1

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £317.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: This is an additional fixture

Wolverhampton: £325.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

3.50 Lingfield : Goring @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Led briefly, soon steadied into mid-division on inside, switched right and headway on outside over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led at post to win by a nose...

Next up is Monday's...

3.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4,874 to the winner...

Why?

A 6yr old gelding whose recent form of 1431 suggests he's in good nick and was a winner at Newcastle last time out. That was 27 days ago on soft ground where he prevailed by three lengths, whilst wearing blinkers for the first time and was being ridden by Adam Nicol for the first time. Both Adam and the blinkers are retained today!

Your first 30 days for just £1

Since the start of 2013 in UK class 4 handicap hurdles on heavy ground, male runners who were winners by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 158/560 (28.2% SR) for 84.3pts (+15.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those priced below 10/1 are 134/492 (27.2%) for 76.5pts (+15.6%)
  • those with at least 20 days rest, but have raced in the last 10 months (ie rested not rusted) are 62/225 (27.6%) for 86.6pts (+38.5%)
  • whilst those fitting both of the above are 61/204 (29.9%) for 82.9pts (+40.6%)

Furthermore, during the same 2013-18 period, today's trainer Philip Kirby's NH handicappers running during February to April are 29/187 (15.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+48% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 24/152 (15.8%) for 100.2pts (+65.9%)
  • in February : 12/71 (16.9%) for 46.5pts (+65.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 13/83 (15.7%) for 37.3pts (+44.9%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m2f : 13/40 (32.5%) for 88.3pts (+220.8%)

And more specifically, since the start of 2017, Philip's heavy ground NH handicappers are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 38.74pts (+129.1% ROI), including...

  • hurdlers at 5/19 (26.3%) for 36.2pts (+190.3%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/18 922.2%) for 27.5pts (+152.9%)

...whilst Class 4 hurdlers racing over 2m4f and beyond are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 33.7pts (+481.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG which was available from more than a half dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

3.50 Lingfield : Goring @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Led briefly, soon steadied into mid-division on inside, switched right and headway on outside over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led at post to win by a nose...

Next up is Monday's...

3.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4,874 to the winner...

Why?

A 6yr old gelding whose recent form of 1431 suggests he's in good nick and was a winner at Newcastle last time out. That was 27 days ago on soft ground where he prevailed by three lengths, whilst wearing blinkers for the first time and was being ridden by Adam Nicol for the first time. Both Adam and the blinkers are retained today!

Since the start of 2013 in UK class 4 handicap hurdles on heavy ground, male runners who were winners by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 158/560 (28.2% SR) for 84.3pts (+15.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those priced below 10/1 are 134/492 (27.2%) for 76.5pts (+15.6%)
  • those with at least 20 days rest, but have raced in the last 10 months (ie rested not rusted) are 62/225 (27.6%) for 86.6pts (+38.5%)
  • whilst those fitting both of the above are 61/204 (29.9%) for 82.9pts (+40.6%)

Furthermore, during the same 2013-18 period, today's trainer Philip Kirby's NH handicappers running during February to April are 29/187 (15.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+48% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 24/152 (15.8%) for 100.2pts (+65.9%)
  • in February : 12/71 (16.9%) for 46.5pts (+65.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 13/83 (15.7%) for 37.3pts (+44.9%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m2f : 13/40 (32.5%) for 88.3pts (+220.8%)

And more specifically, since the start of 2017, Philip's heavy ground NH handicappers are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 38.74pts (+129.1% ROI), including...

  • hurdlers at 5/19 (26.3%) for 36.2pts (+190.3%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/18 922.2%) for 27.5pts (+152.9%)

...whilst Class 4 hurdlers racing over 2m4f and beyond are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 33.7pts (+481.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG which was available from more than a half dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 11th February

EXETER – FEBRUARY 11

 

Last year’s corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £32.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Blu Cavalier) & 11 (Samburu Shujaa)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Vision Des Flos), 1 (Djingle) & 3 (Mercenaire)

Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Charming Zen), 2 (Lovenormoney) & 9 (Present Times)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Pete The Feat), 8 (Cloudy Bob) & 1 (Harry Topper)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Elegant Escape), 5 (Ramses De Teillee) & 1 (Pobbles Bay)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Brelan D’As) & 1 (Le Rocher)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: It’s hardly surprising that two brave bookmakers are offering even money in the dead of night, given that 6/4 is available on the exchanges at the time of writing about BLU CAVALIER.  Either way, the Kayf Tara gelding should cope with conditions as well as most, though Paul Nicholls has failed to win this prize since the old king died.  Barring the way this time around is SAMBURU SHUJAA from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Five renewals have passed without a winning favourite being recorded since back to back market leaders obliged in 2010/11.

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals, with DJINGLE and VISION DES FLOS potentially representing the vintage to good effect on this occasion.  Some decent winners have won this prize, including Finian’s Oscar and Native River from Colin Tizzard’s yard whereby the second named raider gets the marginal call.  Course winner MERCENAIRE is not without claims either.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have claimed six of the last eight renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner scored at 9/2.

Record the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Mercenaire (soft)

 

3.05: To state that OVERLAND FLYER is ‘easy to back’ on the exchanges is akin to stating that we have all heard quite enough about Brexit thank you very much!  Layers can’t give the Nicholls raider away for LOVENORMONEY with dawn still nearly three hours away.  Nicky Henderson saddles his only runner on the card with a chance, namely CHARMING ZEN, whilst LOVENORMONEY and PRESENT TIMES make up my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 11/4 market leader made up for lost time.

Record the course winners in the third on the card:

1/9—Dancing Shadow (soft)

1/2—Present Times (soft)

 

3.35: Another in the series of the popular races for veterans for steeplechasers hoping to extend their successful careers, albeit at a lower level than once was the case.  Charlie Longsdon has a few outstanding ‘pensioners’ in his care and the trainer certainly knows how to target these events whereby PETE THE FEAT is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  CLOUDY BOB and HARRY TOPPER should also give win and place investors a decent run for their collective monies.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had prevailed until last year’s 9/2 market leader let the side down by finishing out of the frame.

Record the course winner in the fourth event:

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2/3—Harry Topper (good to soft & heavy)

 

4.10: I fully expect POBBLES BAY to outrun his 8/1 trade press quote, albeit the Evan Williams raider might do well to lower the colours of the likes of ELEGANT ESCAPE and RAMESES DE TEILLEE from a win perspective in what has become a ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only three of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two gold medallists.  That said, two of the beaten favourites perished in ‘win only’ events.

 

4.40: BRELAN D’AS looks to have been well placed by Paul Nicholls, especially with the hood re-applied here.  Paul’s seven-year-old should take the beating in this grade/company.  Rayvin Black remains a reasonable marker in this type of event, though LE ROCHER is the call in terms of a danger to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame (two winners) in the Placepot finale to date.

Record the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Le Rocher (soft)

1/1—Rayvin Black (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Exeter card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Colin Tizzard (6/27 – loss of 6 points) – 21/155 – loss of 68

4—Paul Nicholls (4/17 – loss of 7) – 39/132 – loss of 33

4—David Pipe (2/27 – loss of 12) – 25/198 – loss of 61

3—Philip Hobbs (3/20 – loss of 2) – 42/206 – loss of 36

3—Evan Williams (5/15 +19) – 13/55 +23

3—Nick Williams (3/7 +1) – 17/42 – loss of 17

2—Sue Gardner (4/23 +2) – 15/116 – loss of 26

2—Mark Gillard (0/5) – 2/54 – loss of 39

2—Nigel Hawke (2/11 +9) – 7/77 – loss of 30

2—Richard Hobson (First runners at Exeter this season) – 1/1 +14

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/4 +2) – 9/48 +24

2—Jeremy Scott (1/18 – loss of 10) – 1/117 – loss of 74

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:

Ayr: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 31st January

LEICESTER – JANUARY 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £570.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Springtown Lake) & 2 (I’m Always Trying)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Head To The Stars), 4 (Hit The Highway) & 3 (Du Soleil)

Leg 3 (2.15): 2 (Iniesta) & 5 (Indian Reel)

Leg 4 (2.50): 1 (Ballyarthur), 3 (Enola Gay) & 2 (Some Are Lucky)

Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Lord Bryan), 1 (Bekkensfirth) & 6 (Go West Young Man)

Leg 6 (3.55): 9 (Georgieshore), 6 (Chandos Belle) & 7 (Tactical Manoeuvre)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Whilst SPRINGTOWN LAKE might look something of a good thing at around the 1/12 mark for openers, it’s worth reporting that the inmates at the Philip Hobbs yard are still not covering themselves in glory, despite a slight improvement of late.  Suffice to say that since the end of November, Philip’s ratio stands at 7/73 which by the trainer’s high standards is poor form and no mistake.  Indeed, 45 points of level stake investments have been lost.  With (literally) only I’M ALWAYS TRYING to beat, Richard Johnson should be aboard another winner but there is no way that I’m leaving the David Pipe raider out of the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Market leaders came to the gig on a four timer last year but the trend went off the rails, with the even money favourite only managing to finish fourth of five.  I should also point out that a 2/7 favourite has been turned over in the past, hence the hesitancy to take out the mortgage money relating to the Hobbs representative this afternoon.  If anything, I would be looking to lay the favourite to small money.

 

1.45: HIT THE HIGHWAY demands respect given his course record on this type of ground, as does DU SOLEIL with the Venetia Williams runners invariably finding at least half a stone of improvement for plenty of give in the ground.  That all said, Henry Daly (HEAD TO THE STARS) has saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, securing eighteen points of level stake profit into the bargain.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Head To The Stars (good to soft)

2/2—Hit The Highway (2 x heavy)

 

2.15: The terms and conditions of this claiming hurdle event favour INIESTA, though I doubt that the great Spanish player would be able to weave his magic against opposing teams on this type of surface, not once the runners have churned up the turf at least!  Upwards and onwards by suggesting that INDIAN REEL appeals as the main threat, especially as there is money in the dead of night for the Fergal O’Brien raider.  Emigrated might prove to be the value for money call to beat the others home.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (winners at 7/4 and 4/5) havesecured Placepot positions to date, albeit supporters of the 10/11 market leader two years back were poorly represented.

 

2.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies is another of the top trainers who hit something of a poor patch of late, with his last eighteen runners having been beaten, three of which were returned as favourites.  It’s worth noting that thirteen of those beaten horses were returned in single figures.  That said, BALLYARTHUR stands head and shoulders above ENOLA GAY and SOME ARE LUCKY (beaten joint favourite in this race twelve months ago), whereby Nigel should get back on track in this grade/company.  The other pair are trained by top trainers however, whereby all three runners are entered into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites has finished in the money thus far (no winners).

Record of course winner in the fourth event:

1/2—Ballyarthur (ggod to soft)

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3.25: Proven heavy ground winner LORD BRYAN is the first name on the team sheet, whilst I’ll wager that there will be worse outsiders on the card than GO WEST YOUNG MAN, albeit Henry Daly’s representative has his own ideas about the game from what we have witnessed thus far.  Providing he does not get bogged down in the mud, course and distance winner BEKKENSFIRTH should also be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had claimed Placepot medals via silver medals before the Placepot treble was completed by last year’s bronze medallist.

Record of course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Bekkensfirth (good to soft)

 

3.55: Providing that last week’s course and distance winner GEORGIESHORE has been given enough time to recover from his heavy ground exertions, Zoe Davison appears to have found an ideal opportunity for her Turtle Island gelding to follow up, especially with the sire having become famous via his soft/heavy ground representatives down the years.  Others to consider include CHANDOS BELLE and my each way speculative call TACTICAL MANOEUVRE.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via two silver medal efforts alongside last year’s 4/1 winner.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (soft)

1/2—Handsome Sam (heavy)

1/3—Georgieshore (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

2 runners—Henry Daly (First runners at Leicester this season) – 3/14 +46

2—Zoe Davison (1/7 – loss of 3) – 3/16 +14

2—Jimmy Frost (First runners at Leicester this season) – 0/1

2—Matt Sheppard (0/2) – 4/20 +1

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 1/14 – loss of 9

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 8/40 – loss of 16

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

43 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £156.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £25.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £27.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2018

Monday's Result :

1.45 Ayr : Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Towards rear, headway before 6th, went 3rd before 3 out, ridden to lead before last, headed run-in, kept on and held towards finish beaten by 0.75 lengths....

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Finaghy Ayr @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m3f on Heavy ground worth £5,458 to the winner...

Why?

A 10 yr old gelding who won over 3m0.5f on soft ground in a Class 2 contest at Carlisle two starts ago and although he was then beaten by stable mate Lochnell here at Ayr over 3 miles last time out (2 weeks ago), he's now 4lbs better off for the re-match, despite only losing by a length.

Trainer Ian Duncan is 17/103 (16.5% SR) for 53pts (+51.4% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last five years, from which...

  • males are 8/54 (14.8%) for 34.5pts (+63.9%)
  • chasers are 8/52 (15.4%) for 35.9pts (+68.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/48 (25%) for 53.3pts (+111.1%)
  • December to February : 10/42 (23.8%) for 76.7pts (+182.6%)
  • on heavy ground : 7/35 (20%) for 20.2pts (+57.7%)
  • 1-20 days since last run : 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.7pts (+141.1%)

Finaghy Ayr has already won twice and placed twice from six efforts on heavy ground, which isn't too much of a surprise as offspring of Lahib tend to like it muddy! Over the last four years, his handicap jumpers running on soft or softer are 9/55 (16.4%) for 41.9pts (+76.1% ROI) : all males. And of these 55...

  • those running in November to march : 9/45 (20%) for 51.9pts (+115.3%)
  • those who ran in the past 8 weeks are 8/45 (17.8%) for 33.5pts (+74.4%)
  • chasers are 7/41 (17.1%) for 40.4pts (+98.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 5/28 (17.9%) for 31.2pts (+111.5%)
  • on heavy : 4/20 (20%) for 18.13pts (+90.65%)
  • and 10 yr olds are 2/9 (22.2%) for 13.64pts (+151.6%)

AND...chasers running in the Nov-Mar period after a break of 8 weeks or less are 6/27 (22.2% SR) for 36pts (+133.4% ROI)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Finaghy Ayr @ 5/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Hills & Sunbets at 6.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!