Saturday's Pick was...
2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Acadian Angel @ 11/4 BOG
In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner...
This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.
Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...
- in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
- at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
- over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
- ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
- on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
- at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)
...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...
- Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
- Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
- Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
- Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
- Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
- Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
- Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)
Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...
- those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
- competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
- at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
- and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)
...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.
Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...
...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!