Posts

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.00 Warwick : Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG non-runner

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7yr old mare trained by the in-form Nicky Richards, whose runners are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 51.9pts (+199.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 5 from 22 (22.7%) for 54.3pts (+246.9%) up in Scotland.

That success North of the border is no surprise/fluke, as I'm always keen to give at least a second glance to his runners in this area. The reason for this is that since the start of 2014, his handicappers are 62 from 351 (17.7% SR) for 47.9pts (+13.6% ROI) backed blindly running in Scotland and you could just stop there and have a very simple to implement system.

Of course, blind backing isn't mine or Geegeez style if it comes to 60+ runners per year, so you could always apply some of the following filters that are in play today, as from those 351 runners...

  • Class 4 : 24/135 (17.8%) for 11.8pts (+8.8%)
  • 11-30 dslr : 30/123 (24.4%) for 92.5pts (+75.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 30/121 (24.8%) for 53.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Ayr : 23/121 (19%) for 20.6pts (+17%)
  • at 2mf to 2mf : 22/110 (20%) for 33.8pts (+30.7%)
  • and ridden by today's jockey Daniel McMenamin : 4/19 (21%) for 8.44pts (+44.4%)

Now, if you wanted a composite micro combining the above elements, you're not going to get too many qualifiers, due to the "tightness" of the parameters I use to qualify a selection, but if you wanted to combine age/class/days since run/track and distance, you could broaden the search to 5-8 yr olds over 2m4f to 3m1f in Class 4 contests at Ayr after a break of 16-45 days and this gives 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 13.54pts (+84.7% ROI)...

...and points to... a 1pt win bet on Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn't at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today...

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today...

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...AND...from the above... Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including...

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...leading to...Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn't at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today...

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today...

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...AND...from the above... Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including...

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...leading to...Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.45 Newcastle : Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on under pressure to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, winning by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f on Soft gorund worth £3184 to the winner...

Why?

A 6yr old mare with a recent form line reading 2412, suggesting she's in good nick right now. The win in that sequence was (a) her only ever trip here to Ayr and (b) the previous time she's had today's jockey, Ross Chapman, ride her in a race and they combined to land a course and distance win here 29 days ago, before she was a beaten odds on fav next/last time out, although neither disgraced nor beaten by far.

Ross has ridden 12 winners here at Ayr since the start of 2018 and to put that into perspective, that's from just 41 rides (29.3% SR) generating level stakes profits of 29.4pts at an ROI of some 71.7%, including...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+82.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/27 (44.4%) for 43.4pts (+160.7%) at single-digit odds
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.4%) over hurdles
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 21.5pts (+134.4%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.93pts (+296.5%) in conditional jockey races

...whilst from the above Ross is 4 from 4 (100%) for 26.4pts (+660%) in Class 5 handicap hurdles at 9/1 or shorter including that 2 from 2 record in conditional jockey races from above!

Today's trainer Sam England is also in a decent run of form with 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) over the last 40 days generating 2.75pts profit at an ROI of 9.82% : modest profits but more than his fair share of winners, especially in handicaps where he is 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+46.4%) including at Class 4/5 : 6 from 15 (40%) for 6.93pts (+46.2%).

I mentioned that this mare was a beaten odds on favourite LTO, she was only caught really late on, so the slight drop in trip might help her and that said losing at odds on is no real disaster (unless you've lumped on!), because many horses bounce straight back from such a loss...

...as since the start of 2013 in UK NH handicaps, horses who finished as odds-on runners-up are 34 from 158 (21.5% SR) for 81.5pts (+51.6% ROI) when turned back out 16-30 days later and these include of relevance today...

  • over trips of 2m to 3m : 28/126 (22.2%) for 79.9pts (+63.4%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 32/24 (25.8%) for 46.4pts (+37.4%)
  • over hurdles : 20/95 (21%) for 55.8pts (+58.8%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 23/73 (31.5%) for 118.2pts (+161.9%)
  • in February : 4/12 (33.3%) for 49.2pts (+409.9%)
  • and at Class 5 : also 4/12 (33.3%) but for 8.32pts (+69.3%)

...from which C5 hurdlers at 8/1 and shorter are 18/60 (30% SR) for 39.9pts (+66.5% ROI) with those only beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO winning 12 of 22 (54.6%) for 46.7pts (+212.1%)

And finally (phew!), using the same 2o13-now time frame in UK NH handicap hurdle races, those who were runners up by 3 lengths or less LTO are 49/212 (23.1% SR) for 70.2pts (+33.1% ROI) when returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win and these include...

  • at 4-60 dslr : 45/174 (25.9%) for 63.4pts (+36.4%)
  • at odds shorter than 12/1 : 47/170 (27.7%) for 78.5pts (+46.2%)
  • at trips shorter than 3m : 37/139 (26.6%) for 90.1pts (+64.8%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/30 (30%) for 16.3pts (+54.3%)

...whilst from the above...Sub-12/1 runners turned out over trips shorter than 3 miles, 4-60 days after their last run are 42 from 128 (32.8% SR) for 93.1pts (+72.7% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 7 of 18 (38.9%) for 17.2pts (+95.5%)...

 ...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden and headway approaching last, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £3509 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, if I'm honest, the datasets I'm using today aren't the biggest sample sizes I've given you, but I felt that this horse was overpriced, considering there must be some some doubts about the odds-on favourite's jumping after a heavy fall last time out as it remains to be seen if that will have affected him in any way.

Our boy, on the other hand, is rock solid and consistent if not exactly prolific and with 5 places from his last seven runs, I expect him to be there or thereabouts in the closing stages once more. He has a win and 2 places from 4 runs here at Ayr and was only beaten by half a length two starts ago when collared late on in a Class 2 contest, so this represents a major drop back down in quality.

As I said, he doesn't win often enough, but all three career wins have involved the combination of 2m-2m1.5f, Class 4/5, mud, Jan-March and no more than 4 weeks rest. All those are present today and when you combine those factors, his career record of 3 from 33 becomes 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 14.87pts (+371.9% ROI) with the loss being a third placed finish!

Today's jockey, Ross Chapman, is 2 from 3 of those four races above and he was 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 30.6pts (+95.6% ROI) over jumps here at Ayr last year, including 8/27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts in handicaps and 3/12 925%) for 4.22pts (+35.2%) over the larger obstacles.

Our trainer, Lisa Harrison, is 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 8.88pts (+32.9% ROI) here at Ayr over the last three years from which, her handicap chasers sent off shorter than 8/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.94pts (+299.1%) with all 7 being males racing after less than a month's rest, including winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 17.16pts (+571.9%) in January.

And as we've looked at horse, jockey and trainer, I might as well add a note about the sire, Scorpion, because his 5-8 yr old offspring are 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+71% ROI) in handicap jumps races over 2m to 2m3f on soft ground or worse during the last three years. And as SotD just wouldn't be SotD without at least one statistical breakdown, those 40 Scorpion progeny are...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 35.6pts (+122.6%) after 6-45 days off the track
  • 3/12 (25%) for 16.08pts (+134%) over fences
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.87pts (+168.7%) competing for less than £4,000
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.11pts (+452.9%) in January
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.8%) at Class 5

...giving us a 1pt win be on Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Lillington @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Prominent, hampered 5th, led after 4 out, challenged after next, stayed on well to win by 1.5 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £6108 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old mare had a respectable record (32128) over hurdles in 2017 before taking a 345-day break. She then returned to action 32 days ago at Hexham, when she was a 5 lengths winner, staying on well, on her chasing debut, also at Class 4 over 2m4½f on Soft ground and ridden (as she always has been) by today's jockey Henry Brooke.

This suggests that she should feel at home under today's conditions, as she aims to give the sire Ask another winner. To date, his offspring are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 22.7pts (+80.9% ROI) over fences, mainly in Ireland but with some success here too. With respect to today's race, those progeny of Ask are...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.14pts (+118.5%) as 6 yr olds
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 16.63pts (+127.9%) as females
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.46pts (+306.6%) in UK Class 4 contests
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 18.42pts (+307%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 27.31pts (+546.2%) over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f

This particular "daughter" is trained by Martin Todhunter, who enjoys coming here up the M6 from his South Cumbria base, as his runners are 10 from 54 (18.5% SR) for 23.64pts (+43.8% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last 5 years, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 12/1 (my preferred starting point for trainer based micros) wining 10 of 41 (24.4%) for 36.64pts at an ROI of some 89.4% and these include...

  • those who raced in the last 45 days : 9/31 (29%) for 29.32pts (+94.6%)
  • chasers are 6/25 (24%) for 21.1pts (+84.4%)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f/2m5.5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 31.42pts (+224.4%)
  • in November : 3/10 (30%) for 1.65pts (+16.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.7%)

...and from the above...handicap chasers at Evens to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+60% ROI), from which LTO winners are 3/4 975%) for 14.79pts (+369.7%) and those running in November are 2/4 (50%) for 5pts (+125%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & Coral at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £649.28 

45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1

Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2

Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1

Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)

Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)

Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly.  The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.

Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager.  Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon.  Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly.  I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.

Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period.  Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Elector (soft)

 

3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from.  Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour.  Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.

Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:

1/1—Invincible Army (soft)

1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)

1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)

1/1—Heartache (good to firm)

 

4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting.  Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today.  The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago.  I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites.  Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected.  Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning!  Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.

Favourite factor:  Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap): 

1/1—Dathanna (soft)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals.  Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference.  APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing.  The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Appeared (good to firm)

1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)

1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd 2f out, ridden and no chance with winner over 1f out, plugged on)

Next up is Friday's...

5.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6, Amateur Riders Handicap for 4yo+ over 1msf on Good ground worth £3369 to the winner... 

Why?

In a race seemingly full of out-of-form horses, our boy's 5 length success at Haydock LTO 15 days ago stands out like a relatively sore thumb. That was another amateur riders' contest, but at a higher grade than today and the jockey from last time, Emily Easterby, retains the ride seeking her fourth win on this horse.

Emily doesn't get too many opportunities to display her talents, but over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're halfway through this one!), she has won 7 of 47 (14.9% SR) Flat handicaps for profits of 13.22pts at a healthy ROI of 28.1%, and of those 47 rides...

  • Class 6 : 4/24 (16.6%) for 6.98pts (+29.1%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/19 (21.1%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at 1m2f to 1m4f : 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.17pts (+209%)
  • and in Class 6 Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.98pts (+158.2%)

As for today's trainer, Emily's father, Tim Easterby : he's been in decent touch of late with 25 winners from 139 (18% SR) generating profits of 54.47pts (+39.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long term his Class 4 to 6 runners here at Ayr are 24/153 (15.7% SR) for 36pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • males at 20/111 (18%) for 44.2pts (+39.8%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.18pts (+46.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.22pts (+38%)

...and male LTO winners running 11-20 days later are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 11pts (+157.2% ROI)...

The LTO winner stats are interesting (to me, anyway!), as in 2018 alone Tim's LTO winners are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.49pts (+39.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 13.4pts (+63.8%) this Flat season
  • 6/12 (50%) for 19.97pts (166.4%) just 11-20 days after their last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.16pts (+74.2%) on good ground
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.96pts (+99.4%) who won by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) f0r 10.08pts (+252%) at Class 6
  • and 1/1 for 8.46pts here at Ayr...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 9.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!