Tag Archive for: Ayr racecourse

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following UK runners...

30-day form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 4.35 Newmarket
  • 6.25 Ayr
  • 8.oo Lingfield
  • 8.45 Haydock

Again, I'll leave Ascot to the experts on the site, but there is a nice-looking race North of the border on the 'free' list tomorrow evening in the shape of the 6.25 Ayr, a 9-runner, Listed race for fillies and mares aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here’s the card…

Only one of the field, Pepsi Cat, won last time out for a fifth win in her last eight starts, but she’s up from Class 3 here today, so I expect she’ll find this a bit tougher, as will Origintrail who is also up two classes, whilst Conservationist is up one class. Origintrail did make the frame on her last run, but she’s now winless in twelve outings.

Three other runners (Conservationist, Silent Words and So Majestic) have all gone more than four races since their last win and come here on losing streaks of 9, 9 and 10 races respectively, whilst Gaenari is a nine-race maiden and she wears cheekpieces for the first time here; Silent Words will be blinkered for the first time too.

All runners have raced in the last one to five weeks aside from Graceful Thunder who has been off the track for over three months, whilst all bar Azure Blue, Conservationist, Origintrail and Gaenari (obviously) have already won over today’s trip. Only Beautiful Diamond has won here at Ayr, though, landing a similar course and distance Listed race last September.

Relevant form via Instant Expert looks like this…

...where Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond look best suited for the rask in hand, but we shouldn't ignore Pepsi Cat's half a dozen wins over this trip, especially as she has been in the frame in six of her eight defeats for a very impressive place record over 5f...

Again Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond stand out with Pepsi Cat a clear third best on the data above. This trio will be berthed fairly closely together in stalls 4, 5 and 7 over a course and distance where the PRB3 scores suggest that stalls 3 to 7 are the best place to be...

...further increasing the chances of the Instant Expert trio of making the frame.If we then look at what tactics would work best here, then there's no standout running style that has outperformed the others, but leaders have made the frame most often and hold-up horses have really struggled to win, which based on this field's most recent outings...

is clearly better news for Beautiful Diamond than it is for Blue Azure from our Instant Expert trio and better news for Graceful Thunder than it is for Origintrail overall.

Summary

Pepsi Cat is the ‘form’ horse, winning LTO and five of her last eight, whilst only Azure Blue, Beautiful Diamond and Graceful Thunder have won any of their last four races.

Of this quartet, Graceful Thunder was the weaker on Instant Expert and appeared to be the ‘worst’ drawn of the four, so despite being the likely pacemaker, I fear she might just miss out on the places.

Azure Blue’s pace score is a worry here, so that could stop her winning, whilst Pepsi Cat is up two classes here and whilst she’ll undoubtedly give her best again, I think she’ll also come up short and this pair will probably have to scrap it out for minor honours behind Beautiful Diamond who has ticked more boxes than others.

No odds were available at 4pm on Friday, but I'd hope to get an E/W backable price about Pepsi Cat in addition to fair odds about Beautiful Diamond.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/05/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 5.05 Southwell
  • 7.50 Killarney
  • 8.00 Ayr
  • 9.00 Ayr

The above six UK races contain a trio of Class 4 contests, which aside from the Class 3 7.30 Ayr, is as good as it gets in the UK on Tuesday, so I'm taking the most valuable of the three, the 8.00 Ayr for today's column. It's a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground with the following line-up...

Bowman won last time out, whilst Kelpie Grey comes here on a hat-trick after winning three of his last four. Archduke Ferdinand was a recent runner-up but the other half dozen all failed to make the frame whilst Orbaan, Prairie Falcon and Bowood are all winless in five or more starts : 17, 9 and 13 to be precise with Bowood yet to win any race.

His cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a level here, as do Ahamoment and the fast-finishing Bowman. Yaaser is also marked as a fast-finisher, form horse Kelpie Grey is up two classes here and out of sorts Prairie Falcon is now blinkered for the first time.

Bowood might also need a run after a 99-day absence, whilst Yaaser and Judgment Call now both run for the first time since October. Bowood is the only maiden in the race and all of his eight rivals have already won over this trip before now. Prairie Falcon has also won here at Ayr, but over 6f, whilst Kelpie Grey, Judgment Call, Yaaser and Ahamoment have all won over course and distance...

As is often the case with INSTANT EXPERT, if there's no standout candidate on the win data it can still help you highlight those who might struggle under the prevalent conditions and here I have doubts about the win prospects of Yaaser (class), Judgment Call (track) and both Orbaan & Archduke Ferdinand (trip). Most of those with a relatively recent win are rated 5 to 8lbs more than their last win, but Orbaan's mark has plummeted during his poor run of rom and I'm not convinced it has bottomed out.

A poor win return on Instant Expert doesn't necessarily mean the horse has consistently run poorly, though, he could have been unlucky or had ran well, but just not quite well enough and that's why we also have the place data from the same races...

The old adage says that you have to be in it to win it and if you're not making the frame, you're not going on to win, so I need to start whittling some of these out of contention. Field size doesn't really worry me too much, but I do like runners to have green for at least two of going, class, track and trip, so from here Kelpie grey, Yaaser, Prairie Falcon and Ahamoment are my take-aways.

I don't think there's a huge draw bias at play here at Ayr over 7f  to a mile, even if those drawn more centrally haven't quite achieved the par number of wins expected...

...the fact that they've made the frame more often than runners either side suggests they've ran just as well if not better overall, so I'm not reading too much into the raw data above just now. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish. Those keen to get on with things are rewarded here...

...with leaders faring just marginally better than those chasing prominently. And if we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...then first four on that list are probably the ones best suited to Ayr and if Kelpie Grey does take it on early from stall 2, then the pace/draw heat map says he has a great chance of completing a hat-trick...

Summary

It's Kelpie Grey for me (and probably many others!), he's in form, scored as well as any of the others on Instant Expert, should be suited by the pace of the race and has the ideal pace/draw make-up for this type of race.

After him, you can make cases for a few to chase him home, but not with great conviction if truth be told, which does strengthen my thought about him winning again.

I did like Yaaser until I saw he was a hold-up type, but there aren't many standing out for me. Perhaps Ahamoment might be the E/W play here, should odds permit? He also scored well enough on IE across the board and led last time out.

Quick odds check at 4.35pm Monday showed Kelpie Grey at a best of 5/2 (fav) with Bet365 with Ahamoment a generally available 12/1. he was well beaten by Kelpie Grey last time out, but does have three wins (inc one at CD) and a place from his last seven and another placed finish might not be too outrageous.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 20/04/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ayr
  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.25 Bangor
  • 4.40 Brighton
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 7.05 Thirsk

And with all bar the 4.40 Brighton & the 4.45 Ayr from the free list also featuring in the TJC reports, it makes sense to stick with one of the other free races and of those four, two have too many runners for my liking, so I'll go with the highest-rated of the other two, the 1.50 Ayr where bottom-weight Donny Boy from above will contest a 13-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three mils on soft ground...

The bookies are paying four places or more here, so we might be able to spot a nice E/W option from a competitive-looking field including Marble Sands (2 wins from 4) and Maclaine as LTO winners, whilst Montgomery has won each of his last three. Young Buster was third after winning four out of five and Special Rate was also third after winning seven of his previous eight. Bottom weight Donny Boy is the only one without a win in six, having now been beaten in all ten starts since opening his career with a pair of wins.

None of these runners raced at Class 2 last time out with most stepping up from Class 3 to run here, but LTO winners Marble Sands and Maclaine are up two classes, whilst top weight Sharjah takes a step down after being well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival just over five weeks ago.

Most of the field raced around the same time with all bar Inch House and Young Buster (off for 70 & 84 days each) having raced in the past four to seven weeks. Deeper Blue and Donny Boy will both wear blinkers for the first time here, whilst it's a tongue-tie debut for Inch House and Ballycoose as they seek to return to winning ways.

Only Marble Sands, Ballycoose and Young Buster have visited Ayr before with just the latter failing to win here, but he is one of half a dozen (inc Inch House, Mofasa, Special Rate, Abuffalosoldier & Montgomery) who have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

I've set the Instant Expert parameters to show Class 3 form...

...as only Inch House (1 win and 1 place from 2) has tackled a Class 2 chase in the last five years. Sharjah is the sole previous Class 1 runner, having won a Grade 3 chase at Tipperary before failing to make the frame in four Grade 1 contests. From the above, you can see that Donny Boy has even struggled to win at Class 3, as has Deeper Blue. but the likes of Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery might well be the 'half' of the field to focus on, although Young Buster is 8lbs higher than his last win and a pound higher than his last run, where he was only third of seven in a Class 3 contest. Add in his twelve-week layoff and this might be a bit tough for him here, especially if he starts to blow a bit from attempting to set the pace, as his recent efforts suggest he might...

Sadly, I can't tell you whether those tactics might be good or bad, as there's very little data in the pace profiler for today's expected race conditions...

...so I'm going to rely on the quantifiable (form & Instant Expert) and the unquantifiable ie gut feeling!

Summary

The ones I took from Instant Expert were Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery from which Marble Sands, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery appear to be in the best form, so I'm going to take those four forward as I seek an E/W bet or two (three/four?). So let's look at the 7pm market...

...and I'm definitely interested in Montgomery and Marble Sands, with Montgomery probably being my winner today. Young Buster and Special Rate are more speculative, of course, but I think both are better than the odds might suggest and both are more than capable of making the frame here. Class dropping Sharjah might well get involved too.



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Racing insights, Friday 19/04/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a couple of qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.20 Ayr
  • 2.42 Newbury
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 4.05 Fontwell
  • 4.55 Exeter
  • 5.37 Ballinrobe

...and as the highest-rated NH race in the UK not only appears on our 'free' race list, but also has a H4C runner, it mades perfect sense (to me anyway!) to focus on the 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Sadly, our featured runner Dubai Days is now a non-runner, but it's a decent race with or without him, so I'll carry on as planned with what still looks a super-competitive race with no less than six LTO winners. Only Heltenham (2 wins from 3), Take All (3rd LTO), Soul Icon (2nd LTO) and Half Shot (pulled up) failed to win their last race, whilst Prairie Wolf (three wins from four) and Jet Plane are both coming here seeking a hat-trick and all ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings.

Top weight Heltenham drops back down in class today after an Aintree Class 1 handicap defeat (which had been preceded by hcp wins at both C1 & C2), but Nells Son, Prairie Wolf, Soul Icon, Jet Plane and General Officer might all find this race a little tougher as they step up from good runs at Class 3. All ten should, though, be primed for the task in hand as all have had at least one run in the last seven weeks (Heltenham, Jet Plane and Take All have already raced this month).

Newly-scratched H4C runner Dubai Days would have been the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but all of the others bar General Officer and Nells Son have already scored over a similar trip, whilst the latter is the sole previous course winner here at Ayr, having gone unbeaten in a pair of 2m½f bumpers on heavy ground in the winter of 20/21. Instant Expert won't show those runs, of course, as they weren't over fences, but it does highlight that...

...the likes of Heltenham, Nells Son, Prairie Wolf and Numitor should be at home on soft ground, although the latter's record at Class 2 leaves something to be desired. Take All, Half Shot and in-form Jet Plane have struggled to land soft ground chases, although the latter has some form at this trip, as do most of his rivals. From the above, Half Shot looks most vulnerable here, although his place record is, like many of his rivals, decent...

Jet Plane's form on soft ground is now a concern and his overall career record on soft stands at just 2 wins and 1 place from 14 attempts! Half Shot still looks weak here, but does get weight all round and if he runs like he normally does, then I expect him to be well up with the pace, based on his last four efforts...

...with Heltenham (like Dubai Days would have been) a confirmed hold-up horse, but those tactics tend not to work here at Ayr, if past similar contests are anything to go by...

Summary

You could at the outset, make a case for most if not all of the field to put up a decent effort here, but if remove Soul Icon, Jet Plane and Half Shot based on Instant Expert data and Heltenham based on his pace profile, I'm down to six runners, which still isn't ideal. Take All is 0 from 6 on soft ground and has only made the frame twice, so I'd say he leaves here, leaving me with half of the the 10-runner field under consideration.

The conundrum for me here is that I really like Jet Plane, but can't back him based on his soft ground form and whilst I fear that decision coming back to bite me, the two I now like best of the five under consideration are the two at the top of the pace profiler, Outlaw Peter and Prairie Wolf, in that order. They were best priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively at 3.45pm, whilst the full market looked like this...

The other three left in my favoured half of the field, Nells Son, Numitor and General Officer are all closely matched on my reckoning and all could feasibly make the frame, but General Officer offers the most value for those of you looking for an E/W play in a tight/tricky race.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 26/02/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.05 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

It's a fairly poor day of racing if truth be told and the Wolverhampton race above is the highest rated on offer, being a Class 3 handicap but it only has four runners, so we'll have a look at the 2.05 Ayr instead. It's still a small field, but we've 6 runners contesting this Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on heavy ground...

It's a tight-looking affair and I think you could probably make a case for most of the following..

FIA FUINIDH is a front-runner who made all to win here in a two mile hurdle back in January 2023 and has since finished 4224 in four efforts over fences, but was disappointing in a 14-lengtrh defeat here over 2m½f a fortnight ago. That's the longest trip he's faced to date and is up half a mile here!

INDIAN LOUIS won a couple of point to point races, but ran modestly in a bumper and three hurdle races before winning over today's trip on his chase debut on New Year's Day, but his jumping was a little erratic here over course and distance next/last time out just 13 days ago, when beaten by 28 lengths. Has a chance based on his penultimate run but LTO was poor.

TRAVAIL D'ORFEVRE has finished in the first three home in each of his last seven over fences, but this consistency hasn't manifested itself into many wins, as he has landed just one of the seven and that was at Carlisle in October. Since then, his form reads 222 with the middle race of the three a two-length defeat here over course and distance.

JOLLY NELLERIE finished 212 in three hurdle outings in France before coming tot he UK, where it hasn't really happened for him yet. He was beaten by 19 lengths in a two-horse race on his UK debut 11 months ago and then finished 7th of 13 and 4th of 5 in two subsequent efforts before a 26 length defeat when 4th of 6 on chase debut just before Christmas. Like Fia Fuinidh, he hasn't been beyond 2m½f yet and is up half a mile, but it is hoped that first-time blinkers will help.

NIGHTS IN VENICE is a 15-race (3 x NHF, 11 x hrd & 1 x chs) maiden whose best run of form came a year when finishing 322 in consecutive races from mid-February to mid-April last year over trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f. His sole chase run was three weeks ago when a 6-length fourth of twelve at Chepstow again over 3m½f. He might well come on for having had that run, but he's up in class and well down in trip here.

ARDERA CROSS won here over 2m½f, two starts and eight weeks ago beating the re-opposing Fia Fuinidh by two lengths, but the runner-up is 2lbs better this time around. Ardera Cross has run once since that win and was very disappointing, finishing sixth of seven back over over 2m½f here. The 13 yr old veteran was beaten by some thirty-six lengths that day and will need some bounce back!

Yet, Instant Expert says that only Ardera Cross has any kind of liking for the conditions expected, especially the heavy ground...

...whilst Travail D'Orfevre seems to have the worst credentials from the win perspective but his regular top three finishes make for interesting reading...

...with Fia Fuinidh and Ardera Cross also worth a second look on those numbers. I said earlier that Fia Fuinidh likes to set the tempo of the race, but based on this field's last four outings, he might not have it all his own way, as when we click the PACE tab (today's free feature)...

...we see that only Nights In Venice is generally reluctant to get involved early doors, but a slow start here at Ayr will pretty much end his chances of making the frame, never mind winning! That is, of course, if last similar races here are any benchmark...

Summary

I think the consistent Travail D'orfevre (The Goldsmith's Work in French?) is the one to beat here. He rarely runs a bad race, he'll be up with the pace and unlike half the field, has raced at similar trips to this one before now. He's by no means a shoo-in and the 3.15pm Sunday price of 15/8 from Bet365 leaves little room for error/value, so I'll let you decide whether he's a bet or not. As for the others, only the 10/1 outsider and race veteran Ardera Cross is longer than 6/1 and he'd be the only I could even consider as an E/W pick based on prices and if he bounces back from a poor run LTO and goes like he did two starts back, we could be on for a payout.

All of which aside, the sensible (but boring!) play here would be to not play, as any of the six could win/make the frame/finish last!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/12/2023

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.35 Ayr
  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.10 Ayr
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following qualifier...

And with TS report qualifier Enemy At The Gate running in one of our featured races, let's head North for the 2.10 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and with more rain expected, it's difficult to expect it to be any quicker come race time. Here's the card...

Mount Melleray returns to action some 24 months after his last start, so he might well need the run here, as all his opponents have raced in the last four weeks with only Ballin Bay emerging as a winner.

He had Enemy At The Gate a length and a half behind him as runner-up that day, whilst Cream of the West and Here Comes McCoy both finished third on their last outings, the latter doing so for the third time in a row but he did win six races ago.

HERE COMES MCCOY has finished third of seven in all three starts over hurdles since unseating his rider on chase debut last New Year's Eve when trying to refuse to jump the first fence. His recent form over these smaller obstacles reads 216333 and he should be in the mix here, but will need to step forward.

MOUNT MELLERAY hasn't been seen since October 2022 and is a 13-race maiden. On the positive side, he has finished in the first three home seven times from his last ten outings and drops a class here. Likely to need a run or two.

CORAL BLUE won three times over hurdles last season, including over 2m4½f here at Ayr on his penultimate run of the campaign. He recently returned from an eight month break at Newcastle, when 9th of 12, beaten by 33 lengths over 2m1f and looking like he needed the run. Should come on for having had the outing, but will need improvement to win here.

NOWINITTOWINIT won back to back hurdles races at Perth in April/May before a six month break. He returned at Musselburgh recently and was beaten by 33 lengths. Now wears a tongue tie for the first time.

BALLIN BAY made steady progress over hurdles (finishing 6643) before getting off the mark at Kelso last time out, beating the re-opposing Enemy At The Gate by a length and a half. That run came after a 229-day absence, so there's every chance he has more to offer.

ENEMY AT THE GATE is a ten-race (2 x NHF, 8 x hrds) maiden, but has ran creditably in defeat of late, finishing 2342 in his last four with runner-up defeats of 0.75 and 1.5 lengths. He was beaten by Ballin Bay last time out, but is now 3lbs better off, so should give another good account of himself here.

CREAM OF THE WEST has yet to make the frame in three starts under Rules, but came closest last time out, when third of six, beaten by less than four lengths on heavy ground at Hexham on his return from a seven-month break. You'd expect him to be able to build upon that, but an opening mark of 97 on handicap debut is hardly lenient.

Instant Expert isn't as useful here as it normally is, but does suggest that but for probably needing the run, this race might have been well suited for Mount Melleray to make the frame...

Here Comes McCoy is sure to like the ground, as should Enemy At the Gate but he has struggled in this grade so far. Coral Blue is our sole track winner and gets this trip readily. Featured runner Enemy At The Gate has fared well in defeat over this distance too.

Looking back over previous similar races here at Ayr, we see that the further forward a horse has raced, the better the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win...

...and if we compare that data with our field's running styles in their last three outings (one runner only has three to compare, you see)...

...that would suggest that Cream of the West, Here Comes McCoy and Nowinittowinit might have a job on their hands.

Summary

Ballin Bay beat Enemy At The Gate last time out and even though he's worse off at the weights, I still think he'll maintain the advantage with the benefit of that run under his belt. Mount Melleray scored well on Instant Expert (place) and is likely to be up with the pace, but I just think he'll need the run here.

Coral Blue is a former course and distance winner, but would need to step up to win here and whilst he has every chance of making the frame, I don't think he's as good as Ballin Bay, so almost by default, Ballin Bay is my pick here.

He's currently (4.55pm) priced at 10/3 with bet365, as is Enemy At The Gate and they're probably very closely matched. Coral Blue is interestingly the 8/1 outsider and with bet365 paying three places, he might well be a useful E/W selection.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/10/23

Greetings from Sunny Santorini, where the wifi seems to be fairly stable, so let's crack on before it goes down!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first four named are of more obvious immediate interest than the others, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Galway
  • 3.22 Ayr
  • 4.05 Southwell
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...with the 'best' (class/on paper) of them being the 3.22 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f (plus 59yds) on soft ground...

Three of this field, Master Zoffany, Autumn Festival and William Dewhurst managed to win last time out, but the latter pait are up 1 and 2 classes respectively, whilst the former actually drops down from Class 2, as do Sirona, Abduction and On A Session for a race where all seven runners are class movers with Rock Melody also up one class. He was actually placed third last time out, but along with Sirona and On A Session, is winless in his recent formline.

All bar William Dewhurst have won over today's trip and by virtue of winning this race last year, Abduction is the sole course (course & distance) winner and all runners have had at least one outing in the past month.

Instant Expert says...

...that Autumn Festival loves the soft ground and has a great record over today's type of trip and that Abduction has a poor win record at this grade but loves it here at Ayr. On A Session looks vulnerable at the distance and no runner is below their last Flat winning mark; Sirona has yet to win a handicap, but does have good place form from an albeit limited number of qualifying runs...

...where Autumn Festival is again the eyecatcher, but good to see that three of these have gone well on soft ground in the past.

The Draw Analyser says...

...that there's not a great deal to be gained/lost from whichever stall a runner is allocated and this is backed up by the PRB3 stats...

...which would lead me to assume that the race is going be decided by tactics and how the race is approached.

And the Pace Analyser says...

...that horses racing prominently or leading go on to win 70.5% of the races, despite providing just 52.4% of the runners, with those who led easily faring best. This field's most recent outings have looked like this...

...with both Sirona snd On A Session both having three prominent runs from four, but no obvious pace maker here, although Autumn Festival ended a nine-race losing run by making all last time out and did win five on the bounce from the front from July to October last year. The return to front-running tactics heralded the end of the losing run and I can see him setting pace here.

Summary

Autumn Festival won last time out, making all and similar tactics here will be very helpful in his bid to follow up. He has the best soft ground form of this field and was the Instant Expert eyecatcher, so at 11/4 with Hills, he's my pick.

Master Zoffany also won last time out and drops in class, but a lack of early pace might well be his undoing. I expect him to come strongly late on, but he might just fail to get up.

Aside from those two, I've no real strong feelings about the race, although Sirona might well outrun her 12/1 odds if your bookie is paying three places, as many are.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 23/09/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...14-day form...

...1-year form...

...1-year course form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.20 Listowel
  • 3.35 Ayr
  • 4.05 Catterick
  • 5.30 York

The first of those free races has two of our highlighted trainer/jockey combos, but 25-runner sprints aren't really my bag if truth be told, so I'm going a little off-piste today and setting the TJC report and the free races aside to take a look at one of the highest-rated handicap races of the day, the the 1.15 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a a left-handed mile on good to soft/soft ground...

Top-weight Koy Koy, Isla Kai and Redarna all won last time out, whilst 2021's winner Revich, Titan Rock and Judgment Call all made the frame. Sole 3yo (4lbs allowance for this) and sole female Sirona is winless in six, whilst it's 16 losses on the bounce for Fools Rush In.

Only four of this field (inc LTO winner Isla Kai) ran at this grade last time out as Koy Koy, Diamondonthehill, Stormbuster and Judgment Call all step up a class, whilst both Redarna and Fools Rush In are up from Class 4, but none of these should be too rusty, having all raced in the last five weeks or so.

Revich won this race over course and distance two years ago and Redarna has also won over track and trip. Judgment Call and Titan Rock have won here at Ayr over 7/7½f and the latter has won over a mile elsewhere, as have Koy Koy, Isla Kai, Diamondonthehill and Stormbuster, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which apart from a dismal record at Class 2, suggests Redarna will enjoy the conditions. In fairness, none of these have exactly set the world alight at this level, but Redarna is 5 from 19 at Class 3, where Isla Kai is 4 from 6. Quite a few of these do, however, have decent records at making the frame at Class 2, so all might not be lost...

...and from this, I'm probably most interested in Isla Kai, Koy Koy, Redarna, Revich and Stormbuster, who are spread across the track from stalls 1 to 9 over a track and trip that hasn't been too kind to those drawn highest...

...which isn't good news for Koy Koy, Revich or Sirona. It's not the end of the world, of course, because the pace/draw heat map suggests that these three have a great chance of winning if they can get away sharply...

...but they certainly don't want to be down the field in the early stages, as hold-up horses have tended to struggle...

...with those racing furthest forward having the best chance of making the frame. We can now check how this field have approached their last few outings to help us make a reasoned assumption as to how they'll race here...

My deduction from the above is that we might end up with a falsely run race, with no real pacemakers and no hold-up horses, although Stormbuster, Isla Kai and Judgment Call have led in one of their last four outings.

Summary

Isla Kai brings the best 3-race form to the table here and of the three LTO winners, he's the only one not stepping up in class. he had no red on the place form on Instant Expert, and has made the frame in four of five starts on good to soft. There's a good chance there'll be more rain at Ayr and he's three from three on soft ground. he won far more cosily than the bare result suggested at Ripon last month and he's the one to beat here.

He was the 4/1 fav at 5.45pm on Friday and I'm happy enough at that, as I though he might well be more towards the 3/1 mark. I'd expect the toughest challenges to come from the likes of Revich, who won this race two years ago and ran well enough to make the frame at Chester last time out, despite being drawn almost on the road by the track (stall 10!) and he's currently 11/2.

Of those priced in what I'd call E/W territory, Redarna (8/1) seemed well suited by his Instant Expert profile, whilst the 12/1 Judgment Call is 3123 in his last four starts and has won twice here at Ayr.



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2024 Ayr Gold Cup Trends

Run over 6f, the Ayr Gold Cup is a handicap race open to horses aged 3 or older and staged at Ayr racecourse. The line-up is put together from the highest-rated horses entered, with the maximum number of runners currently standing at 24 – any horses that don’t make the race are offered the chance to run in the consolation races – the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups.

Did you know - since 1980 we’ve seen just 4 winning favourites?

Here at Geegeez we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2024 renewal.

Recent Ayr Gold Cup Winners

2023 - Significantly (8/1 jfav)
2022 - Summerghand (12/1)
2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
2020 - Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav)
2017 - Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
2016 – Brando (11/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)
2013 – Highland Colori (20/1)
2012 – Captain Ramius (16/1)
2011 – Our Jonathan (11/1)
2010 – Redford (14/1)
2009 – Jimmy Styles (14/1)
2008 – Regal Parade (18/1)
2007 – Advanced (20/1)
2006 – Fonthill Road (16/1)
2005 – Presto Shinko (12/1)
2004 – Funfair Wane (33/1)
2003 – Quito (20/1)
2002 – Funfair Wane (16/1)

Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends

23/23 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
20/23 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
20/23 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
18/23 – Had won over 6f before
18/23 – Failed to win their last race
16/23 – Carried 9-1 or more
16/23 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/23 – Rated 90-101
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/23 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/23 – Had 7 or more runs that season
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
12/23 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
12/23 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/23 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/23 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/23– Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/23 – Filly or mare winners
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 18 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31

Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

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Racing Insights, Friday 22/09/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Newton Abbot
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

...the pick of which must surely be the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes aka the 2.50 Ayr, a 13-runner, Listed race for 3yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 5½f on good/good to soft ground and here's how they look on the card...

None managed to win last time out, but Aussie Girl has been the runner-up in each of her last three after winning four races ago. She has two wins and six places from her last eight starts (13221222), which is about as good as it gets for this field's recent form. Funny Story, Marine Wave and Secret Angel were also in the frame last time around, but the latter pair are both winless in at least six, as is Gale Force Maya.

Seven of the field raced in Class 1 action last time around, but Gale Force Maya (now blinkered for the first time), Marine Wave, Radio Goo Goo, Sophia's Starlight and Sweet Harmony all step up from Class 2 with Silent Words up two classes, depsite finishing last of seven at Thirsk earlier this month.

The vast majority of the field have raced in the last month or so, but Pink Crystal and Rum Cocktail return from ten-week breaks and as 4 yr olds, they're 2lbs worse off with the ten 3yo's in the field, as is the 7yo Gale Force Maya, who is the sole course and distance winner, by virtue of landing this race last year (that said, she is 0 from 7 and placed just once since).

None of her rivals have won here before, but Aussie Girl did win over 5½f at the end of April. Instant Expert says that all bar Marine Wave, Perdika and Silent words have won over 5f to 6f on turf, though...

There's not a huge deal of green there, but Sophia's Starlight would seem to be happy with the ground conditions and the trip. We're a bit shy on Class 1 winners, but Gale Force Maya is 5 from 14 at Class 2, whilst the corresponding place data for those races above is as follows...

...with the ones creating most initial interest being Perdika, Gale Force Maya, Pink Crystal, Aussie Girl and Queen Me.

As you'd probably expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a straight 5½f, although those drawn highest have won slightly more often...

...but the lower a horse is drawn the better its chances of making the frame have been, so mixed messages here and it's highly likely that pace will determine the winner/placers rather than the draw and here's how those 40-odd races above have been won...

...where hold-up horses have done surprisingly well over a short trip, almost achieving a par score for A/E, but as is often the case in a sprint contest, those getting out quickest have fared the best, which based on recent activity, would be good news for Aussie Girl and Queen Me from the Instant Expert shortlist, but Sophia's Starlight looks like the one most likely to set the tempo...

...and she's no mug. She didn't run particularly well last time out, but 7f on quick ground at York is nothing like she'll face here and prior to that York run, she had finished 131311521 in her eight runs this year, having made all in her five wins and Instant Expert highlighted her form at going/distance as the best.

She's drawn centrally in stall 6 and looks well favoured by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

I really like Sophia's Starlight here and although I'm not sure she's the winner of this contest, I'm happy to back her E/W. Only Hills had prices up at 3pm on Thursday, but 10/1 is workable or you might want to wait until those firms offering four places open up.

I also fancy the chances of Aussie Girl and Queen Me. Both were on the IE shortlist, both will be up with the pace and the latter is in excellent form. Queen Me's efforts in Group 1 defeats on her last two outings might well be the best recent runs from any of these runners and this represents a major drop in quality and it's highly likely that she's going to be the one to beat here. 9/2 isn't overly generous, but I'd say it was fair.

As for Aussie Girl, I'd be surprised if she didn't make the frame : she normally does, but 13/2 is a little on the short side for me to go E/W. That said, she's a major player here and wouldn't be a bad bet.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 21/09/23

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.50 Listowel
  • 3.00 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 5.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.45 Listowel

On paper, the 'best' of the three UK races above (I rarely get involved in Irish racing) looks like being the first ie the 3.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground...

Cockalorum and Painters Palette boith won last time out and the latter is two from his last three. Elsewhere, Mr Alan won three starts ago, Austrian Theory won 6 races back and Auld Toon Loon has won two of five; the rest are winless of late.

Only three of the field raced at Class 2 on thier last outing as Cockalorum, painters palette and What's The Story all step up a class, whilst both Auld Toon Loon and Fools Rush In are up two levels, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

All bar Mr Alan have raced in the last 8 (Fools Rush In) to 38 (Cockalorum) days, but he might well need a run after a 265-day absence from the track. That said he has won here in the past, scoring over a mile almost two years ago. Two others have also won here, as both Euchan Glen and What's The Story are course and distance winners. Mr Alan, Auld Loon Toon and Cockalorum have also won over similar trips elsewhere.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, looks like this for win and place percentages...

I'm always a little concerned when win percentages are shown as red after 10 races or more, which raised quite a few issues here, such as Euchan Glen (class), Austrian Theory (going), What's The Story (going/class/distance!), Cockalorum (going/class) and Fools Rush In (class). Euchan Glen looks the pick on course and distance, whilst his going stats are no worse than the others and he's the standout on the place data as the only one with no red!

Draw stats from previous similar contests suggest that those drawn lowest have fared the best...

...whilst the pace data suggests that leaders often struggle to hang on and eventually get beaten...

...so, when the pace draw heat map says that you're best off with those drawn low and running prominently, it doesn't come as much of a surprise!

...although hold-up horses drawn centrally have done pretty well too, so as we already know the draw, let's look at the field's recent pace profiles...

...with the three highlighted runners fitting the pace/draw heat map best.

Summary

Painters Palette brings the best form to the race and whilst his Instant Expert scores aren't brilliant, he hasn't had that many races under these conditions, but he does have the ideal pace/draw setup for this contest. In all, he'd be my one to beat, but his current (5.30pm) 11/4 price looks a little on the skinny side.

Austrian Theory also looks good on the heat map, but in the absence of front-running Marie's Diamond (non-runner), I suspect he'll end up being the pacemaker along with Auld Toon Loon and that's not normally a recipe for success here.

Euchan Glen, however, is likely to be towards the rear, an ideal spot for a centrally drawn runner. His recent form hasn't been great, but he does love it here, he's down in trip and Instant Expert gives him a great chance of making the frame, as do I. I don't place E/W bets at 6/1, so wouldn't be backing him, but I do think he'll make the frame.

I probably won't have an E/W bet here as only Austrian Theory (16/1), Thundering (20/1) and Fools Rush In (20/1) are longer than 6/1, but if I was to pick one of that trio to outrun the odds, it might well be Fools Rush In, receiving weight all round, but it's not a bet I'd be placing. Austrian Theory might well set the pace and cling on for a place if they don't come after him early, but again, it's be a watching brief for me here.



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Racing Insights, Monday 10/07/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.05 Ayr
  • 5.15 Ayr
  • 6.15 Ripon
  • 7.43 Roscommon

...the best of which looks like being the 4.05 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to soft ground...

None of these won last time out, but Ravenscraig Castle was a runner-up, Alpine Stroll has been second in each of his last two starts, whilst La Pulga has a win and two places from his last three and Geremia also won three races ago.

Geremia is also the one not moving in class here, as top weight Charging Thunder is down a level and the other four all step up from Class 4. La Pulga and Geremia have both won over a similar trip, whilst both Charging Thunder and Ravenscraig Castle are former course and distance winners with the latter now wearing a visor for the first time.

The entire field have raced in the last 12 to 23 days, so they should all be fresh enough to be competitive here for a race where three of them have already won on good to soft ground, according to Instant Expert, which also informs us that only one of them has scored at Class 3 before...

Charging Thunder runs on good to soft for the first time and although his stats look good above, most of that form is on good to firm ground and his recent runs have been hit and miss, finishing 2nd, 10th, 2nd and 13th, all at Class 2 after back to back Class 3 wins (inc 1 x CD) last July. The field's record at this grade isn't good at all aside from Charging Thunder, of course and both Ravenscraig Castle & Alpine Stroll have struggled to win on this softer ground, although they have both made the frame a couple of times...

The other concern about Ravenscraig Castle is the fact that he's 0 from 13 over the last two years and is still 10lbs higher than his last win. He will, of course, run from pretty much the centre of the stalls from box four, but the draw really shouldn't be having too much effect over such a lengthy trip and this theory is backed up by our stats, albeit off a small sample size...

and those races above have really favoured hold-up horses...

...which could well be some much needed good news for Ravenscraig Castle...

Summary

Geremia and Ravenscraig Castle both look well suited by the pace profile here, but that's the only real positive that I've found for the latter. La Pulga might go off too quickly and get caught and he's not really a fan of this softer ground. And you can pretty say the same about Alpine Stroll, whilst all of Charging Thunder's form is on quicker surfaces, even if he does drop in class here.

Zimmerman, however, does like the good to soft ground, but back to back wins on this going last autumn took his mark from 74 to 82 and seems to have toiled in the 80's since and is probably still in the grip of the assessor here.

All of which brings me back to Geremia, he has the ideal pace profile for this contest, he was running on well late on in defeat last time out and the extra furlong should suit, making him my tentative selection here at 4/1 with the 3/1 La Pulga probably the biggest danger.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 04/05/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.30 Redcar
  • 4.40 Ayr
  • 5.45 Chelmsford
  • 5.55 Tipperary
  • 7.55 Tipperary

...which are fairly uninspiring featuring two Irish races and UK flat handicaps at Class 6 and Class 5 plus a UK Class 5 Novice A/W contest. That said, every race has a winner to be found and the best of the bunch looks like being the 4.40 Ayr, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on display, but Classy Al was a runner-up and won two starts ago, Novak has been secind in each of his last two and Judgment Call, Lilikoi and Drakeholes do at least have a win on their five-race form line, whilst Rogue Force and Merricourt are each unplaced in their last seven outings.

Merricourt is also up in class here, which willmake life even harder, but both Classy Al and bottom weight Global Humor do at least have the respite of a drop in class. Classy Al is noted as a fast finisher and he's the only one without a run in the last seven weeks or so, as he returns from a seven month break.

Rogue Force will be hoping that a change of scenery inspires him into some form on his debut for Mike Smith and like all of his rivals, he has actually already won over a similar trip to this one. Half of the field (Judgment Call, Classy Al, Merricourt & Global Humor) are also course and distance winners.

Instant Expert doesn't add much meat to those bones above, but does point out that Merricourt, Novak and to some extent, Classy Al have toiled at Class 5, whilst Judgment Call has a poor win record here at Ayr. Elsewhere this trip hasn't tended to suit Novak, Merricourt or Global Humor, which is a shame for the latter, as he has reasonable stats across the board despite being an unreliable type...

Interestingly Global Humor is some 10lbs below his last win. Mind you, he has lost 19 in a row since scoring in September 2021, so he might not break that sequence here. As there's not much green above, let's have a look at who might be contenders for the frame via the place stats...

Again, Global Humor scores well, but his run of form is a real concern and it's Lilikoi who catches the eye here. He'll relish the quick ground and both class and trip are ideal for him. He's drawn low here in stall 2, with only the returning Classy Al inside him and the draw stats from past contests here say that whilst a high draw is preferable, your stall allocation shouldn't be the reason for a defeat...

And those two drawn lowest will probably just sit in and wait for a late run, if their last few outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it's highly likely that Novak will make a run for the line from the word go. A further look back at those races above for the draw stats says that leaders make the frame more often than any other running style but are prone to getting caught leading to a dismal win record...

Summary

It's not the best races I've ever looked at, it's not even the best race I've looked at this week and I've no real standout pick as my winner and as such won't be backing any to win.

I might however have a small E/W play on Lilikoi, if I can get a decent price about, but as of 2.50pm on Wednesday (early dart today, I've to get to a function!) there were no odds available; I'll update later tonight.



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Racing Insights, Friday 21/04/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced three qualifiers...

And our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.50 Fontwell
  • 3.08 Cork
  • 4.30 Fontwell
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 6.35 Exeter

Both Ayr runners on my H4C report go in Class 2 contests, but it's the latter of the two races that interests me most, as E/W backers can get three places in the 3.35 Ayr, where the in-form Charm Offensive takes on eight other rivals in a Class 2, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over a left handed 3m½f (after a +60 yards rail movement) on good to soft ground...

Only Jasmiwa won last time out, but that was a Class 4 contest and she's up two grades here. That said, she'll be in good heart, having won two of her last three. Featured horse Charm Offensive has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last five outings and now steps up one class, whilst Great Snow makes a second handicap appearance after finishing third in a Newbury Grade 2 contest on handicap debut four weeks ago. Aubis was pulled up in that same race on her handicap bow and now also drops in class.

Bellatrixsa and Aurora Thunder are winless in five and eight NH races respectively and whilst the former drops in class here, it'll be tough for the latter stepping up from Class 4. Sabrina has made the frame in seven of her last eight outings, but also steps up in class here. Charm Offensive might well need a run here, after a 113-day absence but aside from last year's winner Get A Tonic coming back from two months off, the rest of this field have all raced since the start of March.

Winning this race last year makes Get A Tonic, the only course and distance winner in the field, as Charm Offensive's two wins here were at 2m4½f/2m5f and Aurora Thunder is the only other course winner, having also won over 2m4½f. Great Snow and Jasmiwa have won at this trip in the past, though and stamina may be the key here.

All the above data comes from your racecard above, but clicking the Instant Expert tab will also reveal four previous NH winners on good to soft ground and just the one previous Class 2 success...

Get A Tonic is that sole Class 2 winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, but she has failed to place in the three defeats at this level. Sabrina has made the frame in two of three Class 2 runs and Aurora Thunder managed to place in five of her nine efforts, but a 0 from 9 win record is worrying, as is her 0 from 6 at the trip. If we looked a little closer at place form...

...we'd probably not fancy Sabrina on good to soft ground and we'd still have questions about Aurora Thunder staying the trip. Charm Offensive's record here is exceptional, but she has a career record of just one win from five at any trip beyond 2m5f, but she has made the frame in three of the four defeats.

I suggested that stamina could well be the key here and there's quite a few way this field have approached their recent outigs and if we consider how they've raced in their last three contests...

...you'd expect class-dropper Great Snow to be setting the pace here, closely followed by Bellatrixsa and Sabrina, whilst last year's winner Get A Tonic looks like he has been waited with of late, despite that win here coming from a prominent racing position. Last year's tactics have proven to be more successful than a hold-up approach here...

...and she'd probably be best served by a switch in tactics here, if she's to succeed, as might well Charm Offensive.

Summary

For me, the one to beat is Great Snow. She ran really well to finish third of fifteen in a Grade 2 handicap four weeks ago and with her front-running tactics could be difficult to catch/beat. She's unexposed and has already won over three miles and the only surprise to me is that she's available at 9/2 with Bet365.

As for who might chase her home, Get A Tonic won this last year, Charm Offensive loves it here and both should go well, but wouldn't be E/W bets at just 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. I don't normally dip below 8/1 for an E/W pick and based on that Sabrina would be the likeliest. She'll be up with the pace, has gone well at class/trip before and if it dries out any, she could edge one of the others out for a place.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 11/03/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of runners for both the 1-year form and course 5-year filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 3.05 Hereford
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 4.20 Gowran Park
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...and with a couple of my TJC Report qualifiers running in 'free' races it makes sense to focus on one of those. The Sandown race is clearly the better standard, but 17-runner novice handicaps aren't really my bag, so let's focus on the 3.55 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good/good to soft ground...

Joint youngest (with Donna's Double) Readysteadybeau is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Glittering Love was a runner-up beaten by just a head. Cash To Ash, Strong Economy, Glittering Love and Crixus's Escape are all winless in five and the latter in one of a few with plenty of letter in their formline, as his last seven races contain 4 x pulled up and a last of seven. Perversely, he was a runner-up in the other two!

Plenty of Class movement here, as only top-weight Fortified Bay, Donna's Double, Strong Economy and Readysteadybeau ran at Class 3 LTO with Just Don't Know and Niceandeasy both dropping down a class and Cash To Ash, Glittering Love & Crixus's Escape all up from Class 4, which doesn't inspire confidence in latter who has failed to complete his last two at a lower grade.

LTO winner Readysteadybeau wears a visor for the first time here, whilst bottom weight Crixus's Escape returns from an eight break during which he had wind surgery, but he's not the one who has been away from the track the longest as Niceandeasy (71 days), Strong Economy (122d) and Glittering Love (72d) all come off 10+ weeks absences. The rest of the field have raced in the last 24-40 days and they might well have the edge being more "match-fit" to steal a footballing term.

All of them have had some success at course, distance or both. Fortified Bay is the only one yet to win here, but has won at Newcastle over three miles. Of the remaining eight runners, all bar Donna's Double and Readysteadybeau are former course and distance winners, with Niceandeasy winning this race last year and Cash To Ash winning the year before! Donna's Double dis win a 2m4½f chase here whilst Readysteadybeau has won a 2m5½f chase here and a 3m½f hurdle at Haydock. As for their records over fences on similar ground conditions and class, we always have Instant Expert...

...which as well as highlighting lots of great course form does ask some questions about several of these. This race was a Class 4 contest when Niceandeasy and Cash To Ask won it recently and neither have won a Class 3 chase yet and are a combined 0 from 11, but that's not as bad as Strong Economy & Glittering Love's total of 1 win from 16. These numbers put all four at risk here and Cash To Ash's record over this trip is pretty poor too at 2 from 16, as is the 1 from 7 scored by Crixus's Escape, whose form has been so bad (11 without a win) that he's now some 22lbs lower than his last winning mark.

In terms of the ideal pace profile here, we're looking for a horse that likes to be up with the pace if this is anything to go by...

...with those running in mid-div or further back winning just 6 of 108, as opposed to 20 front-end winners from 105 winning almost 3.5 times as often and that's going to suit the likes of Just Don't Know, Fortified Bay, Cash To Ash and Readysteadybeau, based on recent outings...

Summary

The pace angle is going to be so important here and I think the top four on the pace chart is the place to start. My first job, of course, is to get rid of one of them for my top three shortlist and it's a pretty easy call to eject Fortified Bay from proceedings based on his inconsistency (3 x PU in his last 7)and the fact he's top weight.

So, we have three and whilst Cash to Ash is still in my mix, I don't see him repeating his 2021 success this time. He's only 2 from 23 over fences but has made the frame 11 times (47.8%) showing that he's essentially a near-miss type generally worth backing E/W or for a place, but not a winner. He's currently 7/1 here, which is borderline for my own E/W confort zone, but you can make your own call on the price.

All of which brings us to Just Don't Know and Readysteadybeau, who'll both be very prominent here and there's not much between them, but Just Don't Know runs off the same mark as LTO (Ready is up 2lbs), JDK scored slightly better on Instant Expert, drops in class and is a former course and distance winner and I think that his current (4.25pm) 5/1 price with both Bet365 & Hills represents better value than his rivals 5/2 & 3/1, so it'd be Just Don't Know for me here.



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