Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more
Friday's action is set to come from Bath, Carlisle, Newton Abbot (abandoned after we went to press!), York and Wolverhampton.
As ever, Mal Boyle's got the inside line for everything happening on...
General stats: Richard Ford and John Mackie offer identical 40% strike rates via 2/5 winners at Bath thus far.
General stats: Tim Walford had two horses entered up in the Honeypot Lane Novice Hurdle event earlier in the week, the trainer having saddled three of his twelve runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times.
Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whist five favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years. Ten of the last eleven winners have been returned at 7/2 or less.
Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful market leader was recorded following success of the first two market leaders.
Class 3 two-mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.30: Nine of the last ten winners have carried 11-7 or less to victory.
Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Donald McCain held four options at the time of writing in a race he has secured twice in the last five years. Four and five-year-olds have won the last nine renewals (‘juniors’ lead 6-3), though just two favourites have won during the study period, a poor ratio in terms of bumper contests.
General stats: Donald McCain is a rare visitor to these parts but his 4/7 ratio is impressive given his two potential runners on Friday.
General stats: Mark Johnston remains on the ninety-nine winner Mark at Wolverhampton during the last five years but it can only be matter of time this week before three figures is reached.
General stats: John Dunlop and York racecourse went together like strawberries and cream for so many years and it would be wonderful if the trainer could sign off at the Knavesmire in style this weekend.
Nursery event scheduled for 2.00: Just one favourite has prevailed via the last nine contests. The last four winners have carried 8-12 or less.
Conditions event scheduled for 2.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals. Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one winner.
Class 2 mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 3.05: Seed Bin Suroor held five options at the time of writing in a race he has won twice in the last four years, without a representative in one of the ‘missing’ contests.
Class 4 2YO event scheduled for 4.50: Four favourites have won via six renewals thus far, though the other two market leaders finished out with the washing from a toteplacepot perspective.
Stat of the Day, 1st October 2012
Yesterday saw us finish as runner-up for the second successive day, as Resurge just didn't quite have enough to get home. You can't win them all, but September was still a good month as we did win our fair share (37%) on our way to a 25pts profit for the month.
But that was last month! And we start October with a clean slate and it's a typically poor Monday to kick off with.
But there's no excuses to be made, every race will have a winner and we're going to try a find a result at Britain's highest (780 ft above sea level) flat racecourse. The event is a open-looking 15-runner, 10-furlong, Class 5 Handicap on Good ground.
The number of runners and the openness of the race should give us a reasonable price for a speculative E/W punt in the...
There's no one single standout stat to support any of the runners in this contest, if I'm honest, but there's enough information when combined together to give us a decent chance of making a profit from the race.
Trainer David Bridgwater doesn't run many horses at Bath: just 4 in the last two years. Yet he's tasted success on two of those occasions, it is admittedly a small sample size, but a 50% record is pretty good and he has just the one runner at the track today in the form of Edgeworth.
Edgeworth was a 7/1 course and distance winner on his last visit to this track back in June and has finished third in two of his three other outings at Bath, so he clearly goes well here. Today's trip of 10 furlongs is probably his best distance too: 6 wins from 24 for 15.pts level stakes profits and a further 6 placed finishes for a place strike rate of 50% at this trip.
The C&D victory came when ridden by talented apprentice George Downing and George takes the reins again today, This jockey is no slouch around Bath either where he's won 4 of 7 contests for a profit of 22pts.
One last pointer I'd like to refer to is the fact that Edgeworth was sired by Pyrus whose progeny are 4/12 at the course.
As I intimated earlier, this isn't the strongest SotD selection we've had recently, but this is reflected in the prices available and we'll be taking an E/W punt at this one today. So it's a 0.5pts E/W bet today at 14/1 BOG courtesy of Bet365, BoyleSports or BetVictor (take your pick!) or you could wait and then...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Bath.
It's another busy day today and most eyes will be focused on the St Leger meeting at Doncaster, but we mustn't forget that there's still some decent action scheduled elsewhere at Bath, Chester, Newcastle and Kempton. Here's a second chance to see Mal Boyle's preview of the day from earlier in the week as he analyses...
General stats: You have to admire Aidan O’Brien. Despite having the long odds on favourite for the final classic of the season, the trainer was responsible for six of the sixteen five-day declarations earlier in the week, with Aidan leaving nothing to chance.
Class 2 one mile handicap scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, whilst two favourites have won in the last nine years. Eight of the fourteen recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
‘Champagne Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.25: Richard Hannon broke his recent hoodoo in the contest by saddling last year’s winner (Trumpet Major) and the trainer looks to hold the ace in the pack this time around with Toronado. Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
‘Portland Handicap’ scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more, whilst five-year-olds have won the last five renewals. Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event. Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £700.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period. Seven of the last eighteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process, though last year’s favourite finished fifth! Nine of the last eleven winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.
'Draw factor' (five and a half furlongs)
15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)
7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)
16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)
18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)
21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)
5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)
13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)
15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)
20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)
9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)
8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)
16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)
6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)
‘St Leger’ scheduled for 3.40: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last fifteen years. Fourteen of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. Aidan O’Brien has won the St Leger three times during the last eleven years which adds confidence to his hot favourite Camelot. John Gosden has saddled three of the last five winners of the final classic of the season and John comes to the party this year on a hat trick. A line through Main Sequence suggests that Thought Worthy should not finish too far behind the favourite, if he finishes behind him at all.
‘Park Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.15: Older horses (aged four or more) have secured six of the last seven renewals of this event, whilst seven of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two successful market leaders.
One mile Nursery event scheduled for 4.50: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer though the handicapper would not appreciate the market leader scoring again. Five of the last 11 favourites have finished in the frame (three winners). If early jockey bookings ‘float your boat’, Jamie Spencer was jocked aboard Glory Awaits for Kevin Ryan as early as Monday afternoon, the only pilot to have been ‘confirmed’ at the time.
Class 2 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four of the last six renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one description or another. Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last eight renewals, whilst junior representatives come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion.
General stats: Robert Cowell’s 4/7 ratio stands out from the west country crowd. Denis Coakley’s LSP reading of sixty-seven points (via ten winners) catches the eye.
General stats: Marco Botti has saddled three of his nine runners on the Roodee to winning effect.
General stats: Rae Guest has his team in sparkling from at the time of writing (last three runners in this country have won) and his 5/15 strike rate at Newcastle is worth reporting.
General stats: John Balding only held two options all week, one of which was Point North who is scheduled to contest the 8.55 event at the time of writing. John’s 3/14 ratio at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of thirteen points.
Stat of the Day, 5th September 2012
The Tregoning/Turner partnership had a reasonable day yesterday with both Gilded Frame and our selection Konstantin finishing second. I'd advised a 13/2 BOG E/W play yesterday, but our horse drifted quite badly in the market and went off as a 12/1 shot. Hayley seemed to have timed the run to perfection and we were looking at a nice 7.5pts profit. In fact, Konstantin traded as low as 1.03 in running, so I'm sure some of our trading fraternity jumped out at that stage! Unfortunately we were caught close to home, but still doubled our money on the day.
We now seek to make it three profitable days in a row by heading to Britain's highest flat racecourse (780 feet above sea level, in case anyone's interested) for a Class 5 Handicap. the ground is good to firm and we're expecting 12 runners to tackle a trip a shade short of six furlongs in the...
I'll start by saying there's no double chance or saver today, as our selection is the trainer's sole entry.
We're going with Wooden King today, trained by Malcolm Saunders, who can hardly be described as one of flat racing's big trainers. He doesn't have the largest yard: just 105 entries over the last 12 months and he's not exactly the most prolific with just 10 winners in the last year. His yard, however, seems to be coming into a bit of form, with a win, a place and a narrow 4th (lost 3rd place on the line!) in the last 3 efforts.
Two of those 3 runs were here at Bath: Malcolm's local course (his yard is only 20 miles or so away) and he has enjoyed a pretty good record for getting horses into the frame at this track, but without bringing home too many winners. His strike rate in these handicap races over the last couple of years here is just under 20%, which is respectable if not prolific: these wins have yielded a profit of over 52% on stakes. His place strike rate is decent too, with 43% of his entries making the frame, which makes an E/W bet an interesting prospect.
As I said earlier, he is only represented by Wooden King today: who has won twice over Course & Distance amongst eight career wins on ground deemed good or faster or on the all-weather. He likes the course and the trip and will appreciate a return to firmer ground than of late where he has struggled. Regular pilot Tom McLaughlin is on board today for his only booked ride at the meeting and Tom himself has a fine record in Bath handicaps: 21% wins (95% profit) and 53% placed.
Wooden King is currently best priced at 12/1 BOG with betVictor and at that price, he looks like a decent E/W bet. However, I recommend that you...
Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Bath.
Today's action comes from Bath, Kempton, Lingfield & Hereford: here's a quick reminder
of Mal Boyle's take on the day's racing for...
General stats: Roger Varian has saddled two winners from just five runners at Bath to date and the trainer held two options at the weekend. Urban Daydream (2.20) is now his only runner at Bath on Wednesday.
2.20: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite was beaten half a length by an 18/1 chance, albeit the William Haggas raider secured a toteplacepot position despite the surprise defeat. If there is a hot favourite on Tuesday morning, you might like to take note of the name of last year’s winner which was…History Repeating!
2.50: Two market leaders have prevailed thus far via six renewals. Four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.50: Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1. Four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since the first two favourites of this event prevailed.
General stats: Suffolk based trainer Dave Morris potentially saddles two runners on the card and his 21% strike rate at Kempton (four winners) have yielded over fifty two points of level stake profits.
General stats: Two winners from just five mounts is the current ratio boasted by Kieren Fallon at Lingfield. On the training front, runners saddled by Alan Jarvis are worth a second look given his 30% strike rate which has helped to produce an LSP figure of thirty four points.
General stats: Richard Woolacott (2/3), Jim Best (8/22) and Rebecca Curtis (15/47) are just three trainers who will be fighting the closure of Hereford racecourse if their ratios at the track are anything to go by.
Today is, of course, Day 2 at York, but there's plenty of action away from the Knavesmire today, with meetings planned for Bath, Folkestone, Cartmel and Ffos Las. Here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts for today.
General stats: Charlie Hills has saddled two winners from just nine opportunities since taking over the reigns towards the back-end of last year. Marcus Tregoning has runners on Thursday’s card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 3/11 ratio in recent times which has produced an LSP figure of eight points.
Premier Yearling Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Five of the last nine favourites have prevailed.
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):
2011: 19-11-2 (20 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-10-5 (18 ran-good)
2009: 13-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race contested at Newmarket--not applicable
2007: 2-11-6 (20 ran-good)
2006: 11-9-16 (19 ran-soft)
2005: 10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)
2004: 12-17-19 (22 ran-good)
2003: 5-15-13 (22 ran-good)
2002: 17-18-21 (21 ran-good)
2001: 22-20-17(22 ran-good to firm)
2000: 4-10-3 (22 ran-good)
1999: 6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
1998: 11-4-20 (22 ran-good)
Juvenile Lowther Stakes due to be contested at 2.30: Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites. Eight of the market leaders during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Class 2 all aged handicap over one mile scheduled for 3.05: Three and four-year-olds have claimed the last ten renewals between them, with the older horses leading 6-4 during the period. Favourites have a fair record in this event, given the nature of the contest. Ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners.
Yorkshire Oaks scheduled for 3.40: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, statistics which include four of the last six contests. Eight favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, though just two of the other seven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.
Galtres Stakes scheduled for 4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, statistics which include eight of the last eleven. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period. Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last fourteen renewals.
Seven furlong handicap for fillies scheduled for 4.50: David Barron’s Shesastar won the inaugural race as the 5/1 favourite twelve months ago. The defending champion was David’s only potential runner in the race earlier in the week. Richard Fahey saddled the second and third horses last year and Honeymead was Richard’s only option at the time of writing.
General stats: Marcus Tregoning boasts a ratio of 10/35 at Bath during the last five years which is backed up by a (minimal) level stake profit, black figures nonetheless.
General stats: Frankie Dettori rides this track as well as any other jockey as his recent 6/20 statistics at the course confirms. Sir Michael Stoute’s 39% record at Folkestone suggests that the trainer will be appealing against the imminent closure of Kent’s only racecourse.
General stats: Floral Patches (scheduled to contest the mares maiden hurdle event which is set for 7.30) is Brian Ellison’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four of his last seven runners at the venue to winning effect.
General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 40% record is a phenomenal ratio given his twenty winners at the venue which only opened its doors to the public three years ago. Other trainers to have made it pay in recent times are Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Dr Richard Newland (4/9). All three trainers held options for the meeting earlier in the week.
Today's action comes from Bath, Brighton, Doncaster, Epsom and Hamilton, but Leicester has once again failed to beat the weather!
Here's a recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day...
General stats: Gabriel’s Lad was due to be ridden in the scheduled 7.35 event by Eddie Ahern who is not the most regular visitor to Bath races. Eddie boasts a 22% strike rate at the track via fourteen winners in recent years, a ratio which has produced fourteen points of level stake profits. Watch out for any additional rides that Eddie picks up at the meeting.
General stats: Jeremy Noseda (38%) and Saeed Bin Suroor (36% via far less runners) are trainers to keep on the right side, as his Neil Callan who rides this track as well any anyone. Neill boasts eighteen points of level stake profits via eighty-six rides at the track in recent times.
General stats: Roger Varian (33%), Sir Henry Cecil (26%) and Luca Cumani (24%) all boast decent strike rates at Doncaster and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.
Maiden event for juvenile fillies due to be contested at 6.50: Favourites come into the contest on a hat trick, whilst three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Juvenile Novice event over six furlong scheduled for 7.25: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.
One mile Conditions event due to be contests at 7.55: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.
Ten furlong Class 4 all aged handicap scheduled for 8.30: Only one of the three subsequent favourites finished in the frame following the success of the inaugural 3/1 market leader in 2008. Four-year-olds have won three renewals to date, with just one beaten representative when the vintage missed out two years ago.
Ten furlong Class 5 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 9.00: Three of the four favourites have secured place money, though all three market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective since 2008 when the inaugural 6/4 'jolly' obliged.
General stats: Andrew Balding still boasts an impressive fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 23% strike rate at Epsom during the last five years, with the trainer holding five options for the meeting earlier in the week.
General stats: Two riders who do not receive as many plaudits as others can be kept on the right side at Hamilton. Amy Ryan boasts a 26% strike rate via eleven winners at the track, a ratio which has netted fifty-three points of level stake profits. Jason Hart has ridden four winners via just twelve assignments at the venue.
General stats: I’m sure that Saeed Bin Suroor would love the opportunity of improving his 41% strike rate at Leicester…if only the venue could stage a meeting sometime this year!
Today's action comes from Bath, Carlisle, Salisbury, Kempton & Worcester.
General stats: Robert Cowell has saddled two of his three runners to winning effect at Bath to date.
General stats: Edwin Tuer boasts a strike rate of 44% via figures of 4/9, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of twenty-one points.
General stats: Salisbury is yet another track where Roger Varian has started well (3/10 to date), whilst this is Richard Price country (as is most of the south-west from a value for money perspective), the trainer boasting a 31% strike rate (5/16) in recent years.
2.20: Eight clear favourites have won alongside a joint market leader during the last 15 years. 12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions in the process. 10 of the last 11 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.
3.50: Six favourites have won via thirteen renewals to date, whilst twelve of the thirteen winners were returned at 7/1 or less. Thirteen of the four market leaders have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective.
4.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this contest, whilst three of the last five favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.
4.55: Seven of the eleven winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include the last four of the last five gold medallists. Ten of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners). Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the last decade.
5.25: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less to date, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, with two market leaders having snared the gold rosette.
General stats: Ibtahaj is the only Saeed Bin Suroor runner at Kempton on Wednesday (the trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at the venue in recent times), the yard now being back to form after a quiet start to the season.
General stats: Anthony Honeyball enjoys a level stake profit of seventy-one points here at Worcester via a 31% strike rate relating to his 9/23 ratio).
This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more
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