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Stat of the Day, 10th June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.15 Haydock : Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Led, driven and headed 1f out, held towards finish) : right on the pace as expected, but couldn't hold on.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old colt has finished 112 in his last three starts, all in A/W handicaps and he has the benefit of having had a pipe-opener this season already, when a half-length runner-up on Newcastle's Tapeta six days ago. That was coming off a break of 198 days and I'd expect him to come on for the run.

PJ McDonald rides for Mark Johnston here and the pair have already had 4 winners from 14 together since the resumption and they make a pretty good team in A/W handicaps as is best shown as follows...

...and those figures include of relevance today...

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 44.7pts (+41%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 74.4pts (+122%) on horses raced in the previous 6 to 20 days
  • 15/78 (19.2%) for 44.8pts (+57.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/34 (17.7%) for 7.6pts (+22.2%) at class 5
  • and 5/32 (15.6%) for 25.8pts (+80.5%) here at Wolverhampton

Of the above, it makes sense to me to focus on the first three subsets of data and since the start of 2017, combining the three gives us this workable angle...

*

Bavardages' recent run was as I said, his first in over six months and trainer Mark Johnston has a good recent record with A/W handicappers at the sharper end of the market, who have only had 1 other handicap outing in the previous 90 days. It's not as complicated as it sounds, but a picture often illustrates better ie

...from which we can again apply some logical/relevant filters like...

  • 18 from 43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.7pts (+138.7%) for those who ran on Tapeta LTO
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%) at Class 5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.1pts (+186.8%) with PJ McDonald in the saddle
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 4pts (+40%) here at Wolverhampton

I won't combine the above into an angle for fear of over-diluting the sample size, but I think I've enough grounds...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral and Bet365 respectively at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!