Double Dutch, 1st January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 1st January 2014

We closed out 2013 with another winning day, but a dead heat in race 2 dramatically reduced our profits.

The day started well with a 1-2 finish at Uttoxeter with our selections finishing within half a length of each other with the next horse over 20 lengths adrift. Forecast backers were treated to a 6.8/1 return from this one.

In race 2, Mrs Jordan was well backed from our 5/4 into 5/6 at the off, but she didn't have enough left late on and could only manage third place. Tickity Bleue, however, travelled strongly until getting caught on the line by a flying finish from Molly's A Diva. Our selection did just enough to hold on for a share of a lead for a dead heat.

This meant a return of 3.05pts as opposed to the 6.1pts expected, but it's still a profit of 52.5% on the day.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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Tresor de Bontee: won at 9/4 BOG (adv 85/40)
Lord of House: 2nd at 3/1 adv (SP 5/2)
(The forecast paid £7.80 here)
Tickity Bleue: Dead Heat 1st at 11/4 BOG (adv 9/4)
Mrs Jordan: 3rd at 5/4 adv (SP 5/6)

Results to date:
105 winning selections from 356 = 29.49%
33 winning doubles in 96 days = 34.38%

Stakes: 190.00pts
Returns: 205.45pts

P/L : +15.45pts (+8.13% ROI)

We kick off the New Year in a position of relative health and hope to press on with these:

12.30 Tramore:

Which I expect to turn out to be a match between Federici and Billybuster.

Federici looks a progressive sort and was a winner over 2m2f on heavy ground three days ago. Provided this race doesn't come too soon for him, there's every chance he can go in again at odds of around 11/8. He drops back in trip to the minimum 2m, which should help to reduce the impact of the 6lb penalty shouldered for Sunday's win.

Billybuster, however, is a real threat and probably offers a little more value at 5/2. He's 2113 over hurdles this winter campaign, as he followed up a course and distance win in October with another good victory at Wexford 16 days later. He ran creditably in defeat, when 3rd last time out, 18 days ago at Fairyhouse. He was beaten by 6 lengths that day, with Luke's Benefit (Yesterday's SotD winner!) taking the spoils.

1.05 Catterick:

Just four go to post for this one and I'm immediately going to discount the 14/1 rank outsider Cara Court, leaving me the task of omitting one of the more fancied runners.

The one I'm avoiding is the 7/4 favourtie Desert Lord, mainly because the price offers no real value for a horse that seems to finish weakly. The ground is going to be testing today and we need to be on one that stays on, rather than folding tamely. There's no doubting his ability, but he's not for me today.

This leaves Bocamix and Forestside as our selections. Bet365 offer 3/1 BOG about Bocamix and he's be my preferred option, despite being 0/9 over fences. He ahs been running very well recently, finishing 2nd at Sedgefield in better company than this and he looked set for another good run when unseating his rider ast time out. Conditions should suit him in a race that shouldn't take much winning.

Forestside is another chase maiden (0/17!), but has been getting closer of late with finishes of 332 in hs last three efforts. He was a decent second over course and distance a fortnight ago and he now drops to a career-low mark, making him quite dangerous to our selection. Forestside can be backed at 9/4 with Stan James.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Federici / Forestside @ 6.72/1 (Stan James 11/8 & 9/4)
Federici / Bocamix @ 17/2 (Bet365 11/8 & 3/1)
Billybuster / Forestside @ 19/2 (Bet Internet 5/2 & 2/1)
Billybuster / Bocamix @ 13/1 (Bet365 5/2 & 3/1)

Double Dutch, 10th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th October 2013

I've been out all morning, so I'm a bit behind schedule, so less waffle and more typing! 😀

Not one of our better days yesterday, as we didn't even get a sniff of the double, after both runners performed poorly in race 1. We could only manage 4th and 5th from a 7 horse race!

Better news from race 2 (from a pride perspective, if nothing else!), as I called the race correctly and got another 1-2 finish. I know some of you play these suggestions as exactas/forecasts and those who do/did saw a £9.40 dividend from a £1 stake here.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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The Road Ahead: u/p at 9/4 (SP 6/4)
Kathleen Frances: u/p at 11/4 (SP 2/1)
Volume: won at 9/4
Gold Trail: 2nd at 7/2 (SP 5/2)
(The Exacta paid £9.20 here to a £1 stake!)

Trial to date:

34 winning selections from 126 = 26.98%
9 winning doubles in 35 days = 25.71%

Stakes: 68.5pts
Returns: 59.78pts

P/L : -8.72pts (-12.73% ROI)

We're still not too far adrift of breaking even and we've some good chances today starting with the...

3.15 Tramore

Billybuster's second place finish at Gowran last week is the best recent form on offer and he is able to race off the same mark here, despite having a 5lb rise in the offing. If he can match last Friday's efforts, he should be suited by the sharp nature of this track and may well attempt to make all and go one better at 2/1, especially if the blinkers are as effective this time around.

Do The Bookies has had a 5 months break but was placed off today's mark off 92 at Cork in March three races ago. He has since switched to Gordon Elliott's yard and improvement is expected running for a yard whose horses always seem to go well in October (27% strike rate!). Very exposed, but relatively consistent at this level, despite being 0/24 at JJ Hanlon's yard, he did make the frame on his last three outings over today's trip and all on similarly soft ground as today's, including a 3rd over C&D two runs ago. He will eventually win races for Gordon Elliott and today might be that day at odds of up to 7/2.

7.10 Kempton

Snowboarder is a proven A/W runner, finishing 121 in 3 efforts in 2012 before being shipped out to Meydan for four runs this spring, where he made the frame each time. Came back to the UK to land a decent 1m handicap at Newmarket in July before running third at Group 3 level at Goodwood. He had an off day in the sovereign (Gp 3) Stakes at Salisbury LTO, but I'm happy to overlook that as he returns to his favoured surface, where he is two from three and looks set to extend that at odds of around 11/10.

C&D winner Ehtedaam is probably the safer option of the rest, as he improved for wearing a hood when defying top weight in a C&D handicap in August. He failed to repeat that C&D win when stepping up to Class 2 last time out, but despite finishing 6th of 15 runners that day, he was only beaten by three lengths and he stayed on strongly. He drops two grades today and his odds of 6/4 are quite reasonable.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Billybuster / Snowboarder @ 6.30 with Paddy Power & Coral
Billybuster / Ehtedaam @ 7.86 with Boylesports
Do The Bookies / Snowboarder @ 9.00 with Stan James
Do The Bookies / Ehtedaam @ 11.25 with Stan James