Tag Archive for: Blackcurrent horse

Racing Insights, Friday 25/03/22

Friday is Horses for Courses day at Geegeez where we share the H4C report to all readers. It's a report that pretty much does what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's what my H4C settings...

...have generated for Friday...

In addition to this report, we also our usual quota of daily 'free' racecards for non-Gold subscribers and they'll be...

  • 2.10 Hereford
  • 2.20 Musselburgh
  • 3.20 Hereford
  • 5.30 Dundalk

And I think I want to take a look at Blackcurrent in the 8.15 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard to slow tapeta and here's his racecard entry...

And as you can see, as well as his place on the H4C report, he also has a stack of stats supporting him today, but I want to dig deeper into his own record, as you can see the trainer/jockey/sire data for yourselves above.

His overall career record of 6 wins of 35 is respectable for a Class 6 runner, but improves to 6 from 28 on the A/W and 5 from 18 in A/W handicaps. And it's A/W handicaps that I'm interested in with this one. With this particular race in mind, that 5 from 18 A/W hcp record includes...

  • 5/16 at Class 6
  • 5/15 over 5f
  • 5/15 when not the fav
  • 5/14 after 8-30 days rest
  • 5/11 on a straight track
  • 4/11 on tapeta
  • 4/10 at odds of 4/1 to 12/1
  • 4/8 since the start of 2021
  • 4/6 in cheekpieces
  • 4/4 over course and distance
  • 3/4 under the direction of today's jockey Paula Muir
  • 3/4 in Feb/March
  • and 2/2 this year

Some of those stats above are reproduced in Instant Expert, of course...

...which also tells us that he's only 2lbs higher than his last win, which came here over course and distance earlier this month, completing three C&D wins on the bounce from mid-December. he's only 7lbs higher than the start of that run, because he always seems to do just enough to both win and protect his handicap mark.

He has set the pace in each of those three course and distance wins and we can see this on the racecard pace tab as follows...

...showing that he's definitely a front-runner and that's certainly the way to approach 5f here, based on past races...

He's drawn in stall 1, which gives him the rail and winning post to aim at and also hopefully keep him straight, but low draws haven't done that well here previously, giving Blackcurrent his first red cross after all those green ticks...

That said, he did win a 14-runner handicap from stall 1 over course and distance to land the first of those three most recent wins, so it's not an impossible task, it just makes life a bit more difficult.

Summary

I like Blackcurrent a lot here. Yes, the draw could have been kinder and yes, he's on a career high mark, but he's in great form, he's only 2lbs higher than his last win, has great relevant stats and with the racecard data re trainer/jockey/sire, he's worth taking a punt on. 13/2 (Hills) looks a bit generous and although Lynn's Boy will be a big danger, the latter is too short for me at 5/2 and I feel the pair should be closer together in the market (4's and 5's perhaps?). So I'm on Blackcurrent at 13/2 today.

One that did interest me here too was Tathmeen, who might outrun his 11/1 odds without actually winning.