Posts

Double Dutch, 13th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th October 2013

We secured back to back doubles yesterday, but as it was the two most favoured runners that secured victories, the resultant 5.50 odds only served to trim 0.75pts off the deficit.

Two positives emerged from the day though, the 0.75pts reduced our arrears by 11.85% in real terms and using BOG bookies enabled us to get paid out at 9/2 about an SP double that paid under 9/4.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

War Command: won at 6/5 (SP 10/11!)
Outstrip: 3rd at 15/8
---------------------------------
Shyron: won at 6/4 (SP 4/6!)
Sweet Amaalie: unplaced

Trial to date:

39 winning selections from 137 = 28.47%
11 winning doubles in 38 days = 28.95%

Stakes: 74.5pts
Returns: 68.92pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : -5.58pts (-7.49% ROI)

It was another small step in the right direction yesterday as we aim to achieve profitability via these races today...

3.55 Ffos Las

If Sivola De Sivola runs to his abilities after a 4 month break then he should be head and shoulders above this small field. He was a very useful hurdler, running in group races last year (competed at Gp1 and was placed in a Gp3), before switching to chasing where he was 2nd at Perth on his first attempt, before winning at the second time of asking at Aintree last time out in June.

Despite conceding weight (but not too much) all round, the current 5/4 generally on offer might look massive come post time.

Well Hello There is the one I find interesting of the others, he's currently priced at 3/1 with bet365 and I think he'll go well today, despite a 9lb rise in the weights for winning over course and distance here last time out. He stayed on well that day and the runners behind him have notched up some good performances since.

4.30 Ffos Las

Bombadero was pipped at the post over today's trip on Thursday at Worcester, but is turned out again quickly off a 1lb lower mark which could and should be enough to make all the difference if he comes here in the same mood that almost got him home last time. The 7/4 on offer from BetVictor looks more than fair, especially when you consider the lack of quality in the race.

To look for a backup plan involves looking at a couple who aren't quite so straightforward. Top weights Toubab and Lordofthehouse are the most likely to challenge of the remainder, but Toubab has been very costly to follow over larger obstacles and is best left alone on his return to hurdling for the first time in 32 months (14 races).

This leaves us with the temperamental Lordofthehouse, who goes well when he's in the mood as wins at both Wetherby and Kempton will testify. He does, however, refuse to run at all on occasions (twice around this time last year) and sometimes runs but doesn't co-operate, as was the case when he was pulled up at Enghien last time out. A recent form line of RR1461P highlights the good and bad to this one, but on his day could well go on to win at 7/2 (William Hill)

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sivola De Sivola / Bombadero @ 6.19 with BetVictor
Sivola De Sivola / Lordofthehouse @ 10.13 with BetVictor
Well Hello There / Bombadero @ 10.48 with Bet365
Well Hello There / Lordofthehouse @ 17.32 with Bet365

Double Dutch, 1st October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 1st October 2013

Just as happened last week, I was foiled in my bid for three consecutive successes (is it double treble or treble double?).

In fairness, though, I wasn't even close to landing a blow yesterday. I generally bag at least a winner from the four horses picked, but a second and two thirds was as good as it got.

Manatee Bay was third in the opener, but he was a good 2 lengths behind the unexpected 12/1 winner Fol Hollow. Our mount may well have been held up too long, as he finished strongly without actually challenging. Hills of Dakota was disappointing back in 6th.

As for the second race, I got both selections in the frame and the SPs were the same as our morning prices and I was correct in suggesting that Train Hard was most likely to come second. Those were the positives! Unfortunately Dumbfounded was third, not first, a short head and closing in on Train Hard in second.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Manatee Bay : 3rd at 2/1
Hills of Dakota: unplaced at 4/1 (6th)
---------------------------------
Train Hard: 2nd at 4/1
Dumbfounded: 3rd at 5/2

Trial to date:

24 winning selections from 95 = 25.26%
6 winning doubles in 26 days = 23.08%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 50.5pts
Returns: 35.81pts

P/L : -14.69pts (-29.09% ROI)

Hurdle action all the way today starting with the...

3.05 Chepstow:

Where my selection of Bombadero might initially make you think I've lost the plot. This is a horse with a 0/17 record on Flat/AW and has one win and one second place to his name from his 13 NH starts . So he's 1/30 and since his only victory 48 weeks ago his form reads 000086!

However, that 6th place run last time out was not only his best effort for almost a year, it was also his first run for his new trainer Richard Newland, who will no doubt expect further improvement today. This race also represents a significant drop in class and the fact that he carries just 10-12 is likely to prove a key factor, as is the booking of Tony McCoy today. This race shouldn't take much winning and the 2/1 BOG available from Bet365 might look quite long if the expected money comes in later.

If, however, Bombadero bombed out (sorry!), then expect Wayward Glance to be waiting in the wings to seize the opportunity as he also drops down a grade. He's ultra consistent, if not spectacular but has already won three of his 12 NH races with five places to boot. In fact, he has only failed to make the first three home in two of those 12 races (532122127331). Speed between the hurdles won't be an issue either, as he has a win and a second place over 1m6f on the flat to his name.

Wayward Glance shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either, as his best flat runs were on Good to Soft ground and he stays 3m2f! I think that he represents an ideal Plan B at 4/1 BOG with Coral.

4.35 Sedgefield:

They say great minds think alike, and both Matt (via his shortlist) and myself have minds (not sure about the greatness, though! :D) and we're thinking alike in being happy to go with Ben Cee Pee M here, who is currently available at a best BOG price of 11/8 with BetVictor.

He comes here in excellent form and seeking a hat trick of course victories after completing a 9-day double on 5th of September. He's had a bit of a rest (26 days) and despite being raised 10lbs for his recent exertions, definitely looks the one to beat, having already accounted for two of his rivals recently, whilst the others are usually seen in maiden events.

Such is the level of his expected dominance, that the main threat is likely to come from Western Prize, who has only run modestly in three maiden hurdles to date, but does have decent speed on the flat, where he has three wins and a place from 10 outings. That place was a runner-up berth in an Ascot Class 2 Handicap, so there's certainly some ability to this one.

He looks lightly treated at 102 for his handicap debut and if the hurdles don't pose too much of an issue and he can be kept handy, he could well take this on the run-in, making light of Stan James' offer of 4/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bombadero / Ben Cee Pee M @ 6.96 with BetVictor
Bombadero / Western Prize @ 13.75 with Stan James
Wayward Glance /Ben Cee Pee M @ 11.90 with Stan James, Coral and BetVictor
Wayward Glance / Western Prize @ 25.00 with Stan James