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Stat of the Day: 12/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th April 2013

Really frustrating yesterday as the normally super-reliable Luke Morris cocked things up quite badly, by going 'the brave man's route' up the inside. He got no run, snatched the horse up, pulled her out four horses wide, and ran on stoutly. In truth, I don't think she'd have won, but she'd surely have bagged a place with a clear run. Given that I - and I'm sure many of you - backed her each way (and I also had her in an each way trixie with the two Daily Dabble placers), that was disappointing.

Today, we're keeping our powder dry until the very last race of the day, the...

9.00 Wolverhampton

Another course horse tonight in Pelmanism. Brian Ellison's 6yo gelding is very consistent. Indeed, in eight career all weather runs, he's won thrice, been second twice, and third twice. On his only run out of the frame on the all weather, he was beaten just two and a half lengths, and everything points to him being thereabouts again tonight.

When I say 'everything', let me outline that in a bit more detail. Firstly, he's run in tonight's Class 6 five times, with form figures of 21312. He's run over tonight's six furlong trip on the all weather, he's 136112.

In just two runs here at Wolverhampton, he's 23 (the '3' being in a higher class and over a furlong further; the '2' being over course, class and distance. Brian Ellison's horses remain in good form (a winner on each of the last three days), and although Pelmanism has the worst of the draw, he's normally held up anyway, so should be able to sit in behind what ought to be a scorching pace, most likely set by Point North and Jawking.

He's a general 5/1 best odds guaranteed, and we'll take the coward's route. Each way please.

Click here for the latest betting on the 9.00 Wolverhampton

 

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th April 2013

Bene Lad was what I think they call 'not off' yesterday, as he was never put in the race and I strongly suspect his handicap mark is being massaged. Definitely one to keep an eye on in his next few runs.

It's Yorkshire this afternoon, and the...

2.10 Pontefract

Dolphin Rock is a very consistent sort, and when you're on the cold list that's exactly what you need to get the motor started again. He's raced nine times on good to soft ground, and been placed on all but two of them. True, he's only won once, and his overall good to soft form string reads 13222663.

His form at this mile trip includes three wins and eleven places from 23 starts, and in today's Class 5 he's 935432113. That seems to be the key to Dolphin Rock: he simply has a class ceiling. And, for a horse which has raced in as high as Class 2 (finishing second) just two seasons ago, and who won last backend, he's in a winnable grade here.

The draw has been kind to him, he's been nibbled at in the market, and if all sixteen run we'll get four places to aim at for today's each way bet, at 15/2 BOG with Stan James.

As ever, be sure to make sure that's still the best price available, and...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Pontefract

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Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day, 6th April 2013

Well, yesterday's performance by Dolphin Village seemed to sum up my own personal form quite well: ridden hard but made no impression! All joking apart, our mount never looked like making any headway into the race at all. He eventually finished 3.5 lengths outside the places and a further 5 lengths away from the eventual winner.

I'm leaving for Egypt at 9.00am Saturday morning, so I'm posting this selection up earlier than normal (ie 10.30pm on the Friday!) and we're going back to the all-weather for an evening encounter. It's a Class 5 fillies' handicap and the trip is a shade under 6 furlongs for the 8 runners contesting the...

7.20 Wolverhampton:

Saturday's stat is short and sweet and goes something like this:

When Silvestre de Sousa rides for Brian Ellison at Wolverhampton, the results are very good. The partnership has currently scored six winners from nineteen making a healthy profit of some 23.35pts in the process, a profit of 122.9% over stakes invested.

If we look at handicap contests only, the strike rate remains very similar (five winners from sixteen), but the profits rise to 24.25pts and the ROI to 151.6%.

Mr de Sousa is booked in for three rides here, whilst Brian sends two horses to race. However, they only combine for the one race with Al Freej being the selection.

Al Freej is a lightly raced 4 yr old filly making only her seventh start on the all-weather, having already secured two victories and two runner-up positions. She is a confirmed front-runner and is very handily drawn today. If she can hit the front early on, the chasing pack might well find her tough to overhaul.

There doesn't seem to be any standout horses in the field and whilst our selection is likely to be a little too short to hedge our bets with an E/W punt, I think that she has what's required to take this one if things go her way.

As of 10.45pm the best price available was 9/2 BOG with Bet365, so I've had a 1pt win bet with them on Al Freej, but considering I have written this over 20 hours before the race, it might be wise to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day 22/12/12

Stat of the Day 22/12/12

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2012

In what is rapidly becoming a frustrating regularity, we managed to find just one too good yesterday. The bright side of that defeat came in so much as it was a well-backed odds on favourite that beat us and also that many of you took a place bet at over even money to soften the blow. Unfortunately the official record will show another 2nd place finish at 3/1 and a loss of a point.

We venture out to the North West today and having passed an early inspection, we keep our fingers crossed for the completion of the meeting where we're trying to get a result in a competitive-looking, eight-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase over the bare two-mile trip. No prizes, however, for guessing that the ground will be heavy for the.…

2.50 Haydock

Brian Ellison has a decent enough record at Haydock over the last couple of years to catch the SotD eye. Very creditable stats of  5 wins from 25 (20%) have produced level stakes profits of some 17pts (a 68% return), while his place strike rate here has been 44%, courtesy of eleven horses making the frame.

20% is admittedly a little on the low side for the benchmark I look for when compiling the SotD and I do prefer a place strike rate of at least 50% if I'm looking to take an E/W selection. However, Mr Ellison can provide us with much more than that, if we isolate his Haydock chasers. It is, of course, a much smaller sample to work with, since he has only sent five chasers to haydock in the last two years, but the record reads as three wins from five for a massive profit of 16.5pts, whilst E/W backers have been rewarded on four occasions (the only unplaced chaser was 4th at 12/1!) with an overall profit of almost 21pts.

Brian Ellison has four runners at Haydock today, but only one entrant in a chase contest: Andreo Bambaleo.

Andreo Bambaleo has proved to be a consistent sort over obstacles, making the frame a total of nine times from sixteen races (56.25%) and E/W followers have made a level stakes profit of 15pts by following him at SP.

He is unexposed over fences with today being just his third outing in this sphere. He followed up a Market Rasen win on his chase debut with a good fourth at Bangor in July and if the yard have got him firing today after a rest, he would seem to have a good shout of at least making the frame.

He will be ridden by Danny Cook today, who was on board last time out at Bangor, when the trip was far too long for him. The drop back in trip should play to his strengths more today. Incidentally, Danny Cook has a strike rate of 40% when riding for Brian Ellison at Haydock and an overall place strike rate of 57% at the course, so he's no stranger to this track.

A check on the markets at 9.50am showed a range of prices available from as low as 7/1 all the way out to 12/1, so the call for today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Andreo Bambaleo at 12/1 BOG with BetVictor, but you can, of course, always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Haydock

 

Stat of the Day 19/11/12

Stat of the Day 19/11/12

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2012

No joy yesterday as Double Chocolate seemed to run out of steam in the closing stages, slipping from 2nd to an eventual 5th over the last three fences. It was, however, another decent day for the traders amongst you, as our 9/1 shot was sent off at 11/2 (a 39% reduction) and actually traded as low as 2.32 on the exchanges.

Another long trip today, but no fences or turf to contend with as we tackle a Class 5 Handicap on the Polytrack. twelve runners are expected to race over a trip of just over 16.5 furlongs in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton

Today has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it, as today's selection has been a prior SotD pick some 11 weeks ago today. She was advised at 9/2 that day and won comfortably at 11/4 and I'm hoping for more of the same.

The reasoning behind the selection is the same as it was back on 3rd September (click here for a more in-depth piece), but the stats have changed slightly.

Trainer Brian Ellison's record in Wolverhampton handicaps isn't the best by any stretch of the imagination, just 8 winners from 72 (11%) in the last two years for a loss of 37pts (51% of stakes) and a place strike rate of just 30.5% (22/72).

Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has fared little better in that time too. 22 winners from 148 (15%) for a loss of 35pts (24% of stakes) and a place strike rate of just 35.8% (53/148).

Yet, when they pair up at Wolverhampton, the results are fantastic. In all contests here at Dunstall Park the record reads 211311132862, 5 winners and 5 further places from just 12 races: a strike rate of 41.67% generating profits of 13.35pts at SP (+111.25%) and a place strike rate of 83.33% generating profits of over 20.5pts when backing all of them E/W.

Without going into stats overload: we can filter that record further into just handicap races at Wolverhampton, where the record reads 131113282, 44.44% winners for 14.25pts profit (+158%) and a place strike rate of 88.89% generating E/W profits of 21.56pts.

They have one qualifying selection today: Looks Like Rain (Mr Ellison's only runner at the meeting), who was successful over C&D on her last visit here (the afore-mentioned SotD race). She's a very consistent sort, making the frame on six of her last eight races and her recent poor run at Newcastle can be put down to the heavy conditions. She's sure to relish a return to a faster surface today and the A/W in particular. She's 1/1 here, she has one win and one place from two attempts under Silvestre de Sousa and overall she has one win and two places from just four all-weather contests.

A return to any semblance of her previous A/W form should see her go close today and as the current market is showing her at 8/1 BOG (BetVictor), our play today is 0.5pts E/W on Looks Like Rain, but you can (and really should)...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day 13/11

Stat of the Day 13/11

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2012

SotD remains firmly on the cold list after yesterday's disappointing performance from Brough Academy. He went well enough for the bulk of the race, but began to tire after the 3rd last hurdle and then faded away quite quickly going from 3rd place back to an eventual 6th at 16/1, some 4pts longer than the morning price.

We're heading North today to Stockton-on-Tees for an interesting looking Class 4 Handicap over 2½m on Good ground (softer in places). Just 7 runners are set to go to post in what we hope will be the "lucky last", the...

3.50 Sedgefield

Brian Ellison has a great record here at Sedgefield in recent times with a 38% strike rate over the hurdles course (8/21 for 11pts profit in all hurdle races here in the last 2 years. 3/8 in handicap hurdles for 5pts profit).

In true SotD fashion, Brian has just the one runner today: Dizzy River.

Dizzy River is a past C&D winner and he put in a creditable performance when fourth over 2m at Ludlow last time out and as a dual winner at this trip, he looks an interesting one today. He is another horse who has benefited from a switch to Brian Ellison's yard. His two wins over 2½m year were a vast improvement on his record on just one placed finish in nine attempts for George Charlton.

He should go better today after last month's 2m pipe-opener, where he was staying on well at the end and a return to 2½m today should play to his strengths. He's 2 from 4 at the distance and 1 from 2 over C&D.

Danny Cook takes the ride today and Danny's familiar with horse having steered him to 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts and he's no slouch around the Sedgefield track either, boasting a win strike rate of 43% himself (6 winners from 14 here) and Dizzy River is Danny's sole scheduled mount for the day

Having checked the markets at 9.45am, 7/2 BOG was available with both Paddy Power and William Hill and as such, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Dizzy River at 7/2 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Sedgefield

Stat of the Day 17/09

Stat of the Day 17/09

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2012

Matt's taking a well-earned breather from SotD duties (he has plenty on his plate at present!) and I'm going to take you back in time for today's piece, as I search for winner on the West Midlands polytrack. Our race in question is a 6-furlong Class 6 Handicap with 13 runners going to post for the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

A fortnight ago today, I talked about the remarkable record of the Silvestre de Sousa / Brian Ellison combination on the all-weather courses, but more pertinently their impressive 12311 record which had produced 11pts profit at SP and also their liking to go double-handed in their quest for winners: a 1st and a 2nd on 10/8/11, a 3rd and a 1st on 3/10/11 and a fortnight ago both horses won their races. Looks Like Rain was a winner at 11/4 for SotD (we'd advised a 9/2 bet!), whilst stable mate Titus Titan (mentioned here at 6/1) also duly obliged at 5/1. Since then, they've also had a 3rd place finish with Tiradito last Friday, bringing their combined record at Wolverhampton to 12311113 for a fantastic SP profit of just short of 18pts.

Today is another double-header day and our selection runs in the 4.30 race: Majestic Breeze.

This horse won a course and distance handicap under De Sousa back in July and whilst not hitting that same form in three turf outings under three different jockeys since, he still remains a major contender today reunited with a favoured track and jockey.

The second horse they have out today also has a decent chance of at least a place and runs an hour later in the 5.30 finale and Phase Shift is a generally a 5/1 shot.

I obviously wouldn't suggest a cheeky E/W double, but I know several of you like to pursue this avenue to good effect, so the advice today is a straight 1pt win bet on Majestic Breeze and I've taken some of the 11/2 BOG on offer from bet365 but you should...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.30 Wolverhampton.

Stat of the Day 3/9

Stat of the Day 3/9

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2012

Efistorm was a disappointment to say the least yesterday. He was at the back of the field from the off and pretty much stayed there for the whole trip. He did briefly threaten to get on terms, but when push came to shove, there was little there. Today is a typical low-quality Monday, but we might just have something on the all-weather for you. It's a Class Handicap over an extended 2-mile trip and we're expecting nine runners in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton

Over the last couple of years, Brian Ellison's record at Wolverhampton has hardly ripped up any trees: a strike rate of just 12% returning a level stakes loss of 43pts is not something you'd crow about. Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has an even worse record here in that same time-frame: a 13% strike rate for a loss of 47pts. This is hardly inspiring stuff.

However, when Mr De Sousa rides for Mr Ellison on all-weather tracks, their stats are very good indeed: 7 wins and 6 places from just 16 races, bearing a level stakes profit of almost 18pts in the process. More pertinent, though, is their record here at Wolverhampton. They first teamed up here on 10th August 2011 for two rides (2nd and 1st), two more rides on October 7th (3rd and 1st) and then a break until 2nd July this year, when Majestic Breeze was a 10/1 winner.

So, it's a quite-rarely used combination that seems to deliver the goods: their record here is 12311 for 11pts profit and they team up again for two rides today. Titus Titan (6/1 generally) looks up against it today, but our selection: Looks Like Rain seems to have a very good chance of extending their run of form here.

This horse had run three times at 7 furlongs and then three times at 1m 4f for Michael Bell to little effect, he was then transferred to Brian Ellison's yard in July and immediately switched  to competing in 2-mile handicap races instead. The change in form was impressive with back-to-back runner-up positions at Beverley and Goodwood, staying on both times and the extra half furlong might just be enough to see her home today.

Looks Like Rain is currently best priced at 9/2 in several places, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.00 Wolverhampton.

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