Tag Archive for: brighton pace bias

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17th May 2022

The free feature of the day on Tuesdays is the Shortlist Report, an ideal tool for finding runners that should be most suited by race conditions, and therefore most likely to give their running. On days where you don’t have nearly enough time to look through the form in many races this tool is a massive time saver.

There are six free races of the day on Tuesday as well, giving full, free access to any registered free users of Geegeez. These races are as follows:

3.30 Brighton
5.10 Sligo
6.10 Sligo
6.17 Huntingdon
6.55 Killarney
7.17 Huntingdon

The 3.30 at Brighton looks a decent enough race as it’s a flat handicap so it’s a race that appeals to me and will appeal to many.

This race will be run over the mile and it’s a small field just 7 runners set to line up. It’s a class 6 handicap for older horses so we can expect to find exposed runners with plenty of form which will hopefully make it an easier puzzle to solve than some other races on Tuesday. 

Despite plenty of rain on Sunday it looks as though the race will be run on ground that is the fast side of good.

Only a small field so the draw might not be overly important here but we can check both draw and pace at the same time through the draw and pace combination heat map on the draw tab for this race.

It looks as though the pace bias is far stronger than the draw bias in this sized field with high draws looking slightly advantaged for front runners and those that race in mid division but no real significant draw bias for other run styles. In terms of pace bias, it certainly seems better to be on the front end here although high drawn mid division seems to enjoy as much of an advantage as those nearer the pace. The worst place to be by far seems to be middle drawn for those that race in mid division but that could be a slight anomaly as in this sort of field size there are only a few stalls between the low draws and the high draws so it’s not difficult to ride to a slightly different draw if that’s the jockey’s preference.

Now we can cross reference this info with the pace map for this race.

This doesn’t look as though it will be particularly well run with Sly Madam and Rivas Rob Roy probably likely to be most positively ridden of these but neither are completely reliant on making the running. Rivas Rob Roy looks most likely to go forward with Sly Madam probably happy to track that front runner early on. After those two most of these tend to race nearer the rear than the front the majority of the time so it’s unlikely to be much of a test at a mile which will have to be considered when looking at the profiles of each runner.

So let’s have a look at the runners in early odds order.

Rivas Rob Roy

Has done most of his winning on the all weather but was runner up last time out on turf, here on fast ground over this trip. His two previous turf wins have both come here, over 7f, but he’s won twice over a mile at Lingfield and also over the extended 9f at Wolverhampton so stamina won’t stop him. He is 3lbs here higher than his latest 2nd and that makes him very evenly matched with Beau Geste who is 2lbs better off now. He was a length behind on that last time out form, but the run of the race could be crucial here for Rivas Rob Roy.

Beau Geste

This is a horse I fancied two starts ago when he ran no sort of race (beaten 11.5 lengths) and then he turned up 24 hours later in a better race over the same course and distance beaten less than 1.5 lengths this time around to my frustration. He’s 4lbs lower than a course and distance win here last season but he does normally benefit from a decent gallop to aim at over a mile so there is every chance he gets outpaced here if they go steady as anticipated. He’s finished first and second in two runs under Ray Dawson.

Chetan

Hasn’t won for almost two years and given he’s now 10 years old, it’s possible he’s won for the last time. He was a creditable 2nd last time out here (7f) sporting a tongue tie and blinkers for the first time in several years and they’ve clearly had a positive effect. Could run well in defeat again but doesn’t stand out as ready to win unless the race falls apart. Mollie Phillips has a 41.94% place strike rate at Brighton which is a positive.Also 1lb out of the handicap.

Alafdhal

Still a maiden after 9 runs and crashing down the weights. He’s been weak at the finish in all recent outings and was beaten almost 7 lengths here last time so not even this quirky course can be inspiration for where the improvement will come from. Cheekpieces go on for the first time but they are clutching at straws really and he can’t be backed with any confidence.

Hector Loza

Regressive in recent starts and only has two novice wins in 2019 to his name so yet to win in handicap company. Hasn’t run on turf in almost two years and not badly handicapped on that last turf run but overall profile suggests he’ll resume on turf where he left off on the all weather. Needs something to spark a revival if he’s to be involved.

Sly Madam

Was 7+ lengths behind the two market leaders here last time out, looking to run to form with most previous runs. Another who lacks form and ability in this with no reason why they should improve. Also 2lbs out of the handicap.

Time To Burn

In a poor race it takes something to be the complete outsider in the betting here. He’s only raced 5 times which perhaps gives more hope of sudden improvement compared to some other rivals here who are far more exposed. Didn’t show much last time but that was his first run for Gary Moore and there is every chance improvement will be on the cards here. Probably not enough to win but probably enough to progress past a few of these.

Summary

A really poor race and it’s difficult to look past the claims of the two market leaders, Rivas Rob Roy and Beau Geste. The fact they are closely matched on form from last time perhaps makes things more interesting and given Rivas Rob Roy is only 2lbs worse off and should get the run of the race could be decisive in seeing him confirm form. Given there is little between the pair, and Rivas Rob Roy is short enough in the betting all things considered, the straight forecast on Rivas Rob Roy to beat Beau Geste seems the obvious play to try to squeeze out what little value there is here.

Time To Burn is capable of a bit better here but with only two places on offer there isn’t really a bet that he could be included in. It’s unlikely there will be any match bets available involving the Gary Moore trained runner but if he was priced up against the likes of Alafdhal, Hector Loza or Sly Madam he’d probably make a tiny bit of appeal.