Wednesday's pick was...
1.20 Yarmouth : Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Close up, ridden 2f out, headway entering final furlong, soon led, ran on to win by a length and a half) A lovely drift and a timely reminder that the market isn't always right.
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Buniann @ 5/1 BOG
...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...
Well, I'm going to look at the relevant details regarding the horse, trainer and jockey in more detail to back up why I'd expect a decent run for my money today (yes, I also put my own real money on these, sharing the ups and downs with you!). So without further ado...
The horse...is a 4 yr old gelding who has won two of his last five outings and finished as a runner-up in one of the three defeats. He won here at Newcastle over course and distance last time out at the very end of February and now had 2 wins and a runner-up finish from four runs here on this track, all over this 5f trip and two win from three at this grade.
So, that's (relatively) recent form, course form, distance form, C&D form and class form all ticked, let's move on to...
The trainer, Paul Midgely who has an excellent record in getting LTO winners to win again and since the start of 2011, it has been profitable to back those runners blindly every year bar 2013. Backing all those runners over the last 9 years would have seen you collect winnings on 41 of your 285 bets (14.4% SR), banking a not insignificant £1763 profit to a level £10 stake, or a 62.1% return on your investments.
I never advocate backing so many horses blindly and prefer to impose logical filters to reduce the number of bets and therefore outlayed risk and also to hopefully improve the strike rate and/or ROI numbers. So, from the 285 Midgely LTO winners...
- handicappers are 36/256 (14.1%) for 168.5pts (+66.1%)
- males are 36/233 (15.5%) for 171.7pts (+74%)
- during June-September, it's 35/198 (17.7%) for 144.5pts (+73.4%)
- over the minimum 5f trip : 23/157 (14.7%) for 80.6pts (+51.7%)
- since the start of 2016 (so we're not leaning on very old data!) : 20/97 (20.6%) for 98pts (+101%)
- and 4/5 yr olds are 20/94 (21.3%) for 118.6pts (+126.2%)
Personally, I like to combine the more prolific subsets of data to make myself an angle that I can come back to later and if I was doing that from the above options, I'd want to make a mental note to seek out Paul Midgely's male LTO winners running in handicaps during June, July & August. This would give me 23 winners from 116 (19.8% SR) and 139.9pts (+121.6% ROI) profit.
This angle produces 79.4% of the original profit from just 40.7% of the original number of bets and as it retains 56.1% of the original winners, it's a far more efficient approach. I appreciate that this might still be too many bets to consider, so we can drill down further into those 116 bets to discover...
- 12 from 49 (24.5%) for 41.3pts (+84.3%) since the start of 2017
- 11/56 (19.6%) for 52.8pts (+96.1%) over 5 furlongs
- 10/43 (23.3%) for 57.8pts (+134.5%) for 4/5 yr olds
- 7/27 (25.9%) for 38.6pts (+143%) over 5f since the start of 2017
- 5/17 (29.4%) for 29.2pts (+171.8%) for 4/5 yr olds since the start of 2017
- 4/18 (22.2%) for 12.2pts (+67.8%) for 4/5 yr olds over 5f
- and 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.6pts (+207.4%) for 4/5 yr olds over 5f since the start of 2017
I think you get the picture there, so let's cap today's piece off with a quick look at...
Today's jockey, Kevin Stott, because he rides the Tapeta here at Newcastle better than many other jockeys, having a record of 31 winners from 200 (15.5% SR) rides here, generating level stakes profits of 47.1pts at an ROI of 23.5% along the way. Useful numbers indeed, including of particular interest today...
- 30/179 (16.8%) for 65.4pts (+36.5%) at Class 4 or lower
- 25/147 (17%) for 4.07pts (+2.8%) in handicaps
- 25/80 (31.25%) for 33.3pts (+41.7%) on horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 13/2
- and 5/31 (16.1%) for 4.14pts (+13.4%) over this 5f course and distance
If, like the trainer details above, you wanted a composite angle here, you could back Kevin Stott when sent off at 5/4 to 13/2 in Class 4 or lower Newcastle handicaps. This produces 21 winners from 60 (35% SR) for 37.8pts (+63% ROI) and includes 7/16 (43.75%) for 21.2pts (+132.3%) at Class 5 and 2/7 (28.6%) for 3.65pts (+52.1%) over this C&D...
...all of which pointed me towards...a 1pt win bet on Buniann @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!