Thursday's pick was...
7.40 Bath : Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 9/1 (Keen led after 2f, clear with one other over 5f out, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)
Friday's pick runs in the...
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner...
This 5 yr old gelding ran just once as a two year old and once as a three year old for two different trainers to little effect. He never ran last year and moved yards to David Brown in late 2019, sparking him into life.
He returned to the track in early January to make a yard debut some 417 days after his last run and his record this year now stands at 114211 (117 days between the last two runs whilst he was gelded) including the following under today's conditions...
- 3 from 5 in handicaps
- 3 from 5 on a straight track
- 3 from 4 over 5 furlongs
- 3 from 4 in a straight 5f handicap
- 1 from 2 at Class 4 (although won at Class 3 LTO)
- 1 from 1 on the Flat (LTO)
- 1 from 1 on Good to Firm (also LTO)
- and 1 from 1 under today's jockey Cam Hardie (yes, also LTO)
He was last seen just four days ago when making all on good to firm up at Ayr in a Class 3, 5f handicap and with a good draw here today, similar tactics could well be the key, as shown on the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map.
As well as his form this year since a switch of yard, that last run at Ayr piqued my interest, as trainer David Brown is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 18.26pts (+83% ROI) with horses turned back out within 10 days of their last run since the start of 2019. I won't break those 22 down, as it will dilute the dataset too much.
However, we can look at the the other angle that popped up on my notes last night and that is David Brown + LTO winners + 2016-20 = 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 30.07pts (+47% ROI), including of note today...
- 14/57 (24.6%) for 37.07pts (+65%) in handicaps
- 12/48 (25%) for 25.83pts (+53.8%) with males
- 10/27 (37%) for 10.06pts (+37.2%) at odds shorter than 5/1
- 8/29 (27.6%) for 3.62pts (+115.9%) in races worth £4k-£10k
- 7/31 (22.6%) for 28.11pts (+90.7%) on the Flat
- 7/20 (35%) for 49.1pts (+245.5%) with 4-7 yr olds
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.79pts (+61.2%) over 5 furlongs
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.01pts (+6.3%) within 10 days of their last run
- and 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.65pts (+309.3%) on good to firm ground...
...from which, male handicappers sent off shorter than 5/1 are 9 from 20 (45% SR) for 11.12pts (+55.6% ROI)...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!