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Stat of the Day, 11th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.05 Bath : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Canagat @ 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

According to the racecard, this 3 yr old colt takes a drop in class from his last run 17 days ago and is of immediate interest, because...

He's drawn is stall 4 today and a quick glance at the pace/draw heat map shows...

I don't think any of the above needs explaining (but please do ask if something is unclear, I don't bite), whilst the horse himself has already proved to like an artificial surface...

He has finished 311 on the A/W so far, including one here at Newcastle (also Class 4 with Hollie Doyle on board, but over 7f two starts ago).

And the only thing I'm going to add to all of the evidence above is that of the Trainer/Jockey record of 6 wins from 13 here at Newcastle over the last year, seven of those races were handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and the results are astonishing at 1111211 including Canagat winning here on the 2nd June, the same day as Glen Shiel was the only loser in that sequence, although he has won here at Newcastle since (Class 2 under Hollie Doyle!)...

...all of which steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Canagat @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday (although a couple of firms were at 11/4), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!