Thursday's Result :
2.35 Warwick : Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 Held up behind leaders, went 3rd before 3rd, chased winner after 3 out, hard ridden approaching last, 1 length down and carried right flat, no impression towards finish...
Next up is Friday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG
A Class 6, 3yo A/W Claiming Stakes over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...
A 3 yr old colt, whose last six outings have seen him make the frame four times, winning on two occasions and taking his A/W record to the point where it now includes the following of relevance today...
- 2/4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
- 2/4 going left handed
- 1/2 here at Lingfield
- 1/1 in a claimer
- 1/1 at Class 6
His trainer, Jamie Osborne's record on the A/W with horses who last ran 1-7 days earlier stands at 34/145 (23.5% SR) for 29.3pts (+20.2% ROI) since 2012, from which...
- in non-hcps : 20/69 (29%) for 14.35pts (+20.8%)
- 3 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 22.4pts (+44.8%)
- in January : 9/35 (25.7%) for 4.23pts (+12.1%)
- over 7f : 7/28 (25%) for 10.83pts (+38.7%)
- 3rd LTO = 8/23 (34.8%) for 21.9pts (+95.1%)
- in Claimers : 8/23 (34.8%) for 12.72pts (+55.3%)
- beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.4pts (+60.8%)
- and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 4/16 (25%) for 5.3pts (+33.2)...
...whilst more generally the Osborne / Costello / AW figures are 21/165 (12.7% SR) for 37.7pts (+22.9 ROI) including...
- 11/70 (15.7%) for 28.14pts (+40.2%) in non-handicaps
- and 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.33pts (+39.4%) in claimers.
And finally...A/W runners sired by Lope De Vega are 47/204 (23% SR) for 216.7pts at an ROI of 106.2% since the start of 2016, from which...
- on Polytrack : 23/128 (18%) for 150.5pts (+117.6%)
- 3 yr olds : 25/101 (24.75%) for 50.8pts (+50.3%)
- Class 6 : 7/24 (29.2%) for 39.3pts (+163.9%)
- and at Lingfield : 5/19 (26.3%) for 5pts (+26.3%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.40pm on Thursday with Betfred & Totesport matching that price, but non-BOG until the morning. (5/2 BOG was still widely available at 8.00am Friday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!