Posts

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.40 Wolverhampton : Tavener @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly finished 4223 in four starts last season in better races than this, including a 2.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap last time out. That was at Newmarket behind Island Vision who was subsequently placed third in a Listed contest.

A similar effort three classes lower should surely be enough, but don't just take my word for it, there are (as always!) some numbers to back up my thoughts!

She's trained by Richard Fahey, whose runners here at Catterick are 43/190 (22.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+23.6% ROI) since the start of the 2012 campaign, with the following data of particular relevance today...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 37/149 (24.8%) for 49.3pts (+33.1%)
  • those racing over 6 / 7 furlongs are 27/110 (24.5%) for 54.8pts (+49.8%)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 8/1 are 32/104 (30.8%) for 70.3pts (+67.6%)
  • those with 2 to 12 previous career runs are 28/89 (31.5%) for 44.9pts (+50.5%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 60.9pts (+74.3%)
  • females are 18/69 (26.1%) for 37.9pts (+55%)
  • at Class 5 : 18/68 (26.5%) for 16.2pts (+23.8%)
  • in maidens : 12/48 (25%) for 4.76pts (+9.9%)
  • and in female only races : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.96pts (+68.9%)

PLUS... backing all Richard Fahey's 2 to 5 yr olds on the Flat (turf) during the month of April has yielded 138 winners from 701 runners (19.7% SR) and 227.8pts (+32.5% ROI) of level stakes profits since the start of the 2009 season, of which...

  • Class 5 runners are 56/262 (21.4%) for 64.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 47/248 (19%) for 54.7pts (+22.1%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 56/222 (25.2%) for 94.9pts (+42.8%)
  • in maidens : 31/137 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+15.9%)
  • over the 7f trip : 21/93 (22.6%) for 52.8pts (+56.7%)
  • and in female only races : 13/52 (25%) for 58pts at an ROI of 111.5%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG with any one of the dozen firms quoting the same price at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Towcester: What A Diva @ 100/30 BOG WON at 6/1 Close up, challenged before 2 out, led last, kept on under pressure, held on near finish to win by 0.75 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 1P2 in her last three efforts over fences with a soft ground win over 3m 0.5f followed by two excusable (to me, anyway!) defeats. She was pulled up 4 out in a Grade 3 contest, where she was fairly clearly out of her depth but gave a good account of herself before being outpaced late on last time out.

She was headed late on and went down by a neck over what looks an inadequate 2.5 miles and the step back up in trip allied to suitable race conditions should see her in a better light.

I say suitable race conditions because to date she is...

  • 4/13 under Gina Andrews, 4/11 going left handed and 4/8 in fields of 1-7 runners
  • 3/7 after a break of 16-30 days, 4/6 when priced below 5/1 and 3/3 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3 and also 1/1 here at Catterick

She's trained by Pam Sly, who doesn't have a large number of chasers, but has saddled up 11 winners from 43 (25.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 65.9pts (+153.2% ROI) over the last four years, including of relevance today...

  • handicap chasers : 10/34 (29.4%) for 70.6pts (+207.8%)
  • those in the top 6 LTO are 9/31 (29%) for 33.2pts (+107%)
  • those running 11-25 days since last seen are 8/26 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+129.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 6/14 (42.9%) for 32.6pts (+232.8%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 11/2 : 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.4pts (+249.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 18pts (+163.6%)
  • and her 6yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+183.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor and/or Hills at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of more than acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.00 Wetherby : Robbing The Prey @ 7/2 BOG Fell at 7/2 Tracked leaders in 3rd, blundered and lost place 4th, never dangerous after, fell at last.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

It's all about family affairs today, as firstly we have the Skeltons with jockey Harry riding for trainer Dan aiming to improve their joint record in handicap chases at distances shorter than 3m2f with horses priced in the general 6/4 to 12/1 price range.

At present, that record stands at 39 winners from 201 (19.4%$ SR) for profits of 23.5pts (+11.7% ROI) backed blindly.

On ground ranging from good through to soft, they are 37/184 (20.1%) for 29pts (+15.8%) and at the sharper trips ie 1m7.5f/2m, the numbers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 4.96pts.

Over these short trips on ground ranging from good through to soft, they are 6/20 (30% SR) for 5.96pts (+29.8% ROI).

The second instalment of the family bill comes from the breeding of Herons Heir, as he's by Heron Island, whose chasers were 24/130 (18.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+45% ROI) in 2016, with handicappers winning 16 of 82 (19.5%) for 41.4pts (+50.5%).

And of these 82 handicappers...

  • those whose last ran 11-150 days earlier were 13/66 (19.7%) for 34pts (+51.5%)
  • 8 yr olds (as Herons Heir was last yr) were 9/37 (24.3%) for 34.6pts (+93.4%)

AND...8 yr olds coming off a break of 26-150 days were 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 21.7pts (+94.5% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and Stan James at 5.40pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Catterick 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2016

Monday's Result :

5.30 Redcar : Tricky Dicky @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, strongly challenged approaching final furlong, kept on well to win by half a length)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Compton River at 3/1 BOG

Why?

Quite simply the form horse in the race with finishes of 211222 in his last six outings. He has won over course and distance in the past and his last four efforts at C&D have ended 2212.

And in all UK Flat handicaps over the last five seasons, horses bringing a 222 run of form to the track have gone one better and won on 71 of 295 (24.1% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 89.4pts (+30.3% ROI), with the following of relevance today...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier are 66/260 (25.4%) for 107.3pts (+41.3%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 : 63/209 (30.1%) for 77.2pts (+36.9%)
  • males are 48/203 (23.7%) for 71.5pts (+35.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 17/70 (24.3%) for 29.5pts (+42.1%)
  • and here at Catterick : 5/11 (45.5%) for 7.25pts (+65.9%)

AND...4 yr old males priced at 5/4 to 7/1, 4-60 days after their last run are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 28.8pts (+95.9% ROI)...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Compton River at 3/1 BOG, a price widely available at 7.20pm on Monday and once again I'd advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Catterick.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2016

Monday's Result :

4.30 Kempton : Mister Bob @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up, in 4th until steadied into 5th after 5f, smooth headway on inside into 4th again 3f out, switched left and went 3rd over 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on to lead final 100 yards, soon clear, winning by 1.25 lengths going away)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chant at 11/4 non-BOG (until morning)

Why?

A winner over this trip at Pontefract nine days ago took, his career total to four wins, all of which where over 1m 3.5f or 1m4f, all at Class 5 and all when rated 61-70, Three of his four wins have been on good to firm, he has three wins under today's jockey and three wins at 4/1 and shorter.

His trainer Ann Duffield is 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 36.1pts (+106.1%) with runners priced at 10/1 and shorter since the start of 2014, of which...

  • those last seen 4-25 days ago are 8/27 (29.6%) for 20.5pts (+76%)
  • those ridden by PJ McDonald are 8/21 (38.1%) for 40.5pts (+192.7%)
  • and on good to firm ground : 5/12 (41.7%) for 35pts (+291.3%)

In addition to the above and more generally, Mrs Duffield's record in claimers since 2010 with horses who didn't run in a claimer LTO is 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+49.5% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • males are 9/38 (23.7%) for 33.2pts (+87.5%)
  • at 5/1 and shorter : 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.5pts (+63.3%)
  • on good to firm : 6/19 (31.6%) for 22.7pts (+119.6%)
  • ridden by PJ McDonald : 3/14 (21.4%) for 11.3pts (+80.8%)
  • Class 5 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 0.96pts (+8.7%)
  • at Catterick : 2/9 (22.2%) for 0.82pts (+9.1%)
  • over 1m4f  : 3/4 (75%) for 6.83pts (+170.7%)

...meaning that it's... a 1pt win bet on Chant at 11/4 which was available from Betfred and/or Totesport at 10.45pm,but they don't go BOG until morning. Best BOG price was the widely offered 5/2 BOG, but I think this one will shorten anyway and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

8.30 Worcester : Samtu @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd before 3rd, led 5th, soon headed, ridden and hung left before 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotabreeze at 9/2 BOG

Why?

A very consistent sort, finishing 2123 since going handicapping, but beaten off today's mark of 69 on his last two runs over 1m2f on quick ground. Each time, he had ran well but lacked a final burst to get home, staying on a little one-paced, suggesting the step up in trip today could be the answer.

He is still on that mark of 69, but the booking of a 5lb claimer might also prove beneficial, as he seeks to become another John Quinn Catterick winner to go with the other 13 from 86 attempts (15.1% SR) that have produced level stakes profits of 21pts (+24.4% RO) on the Flat here since the start of the 2013 season.

And from those 86 runners...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 11/1 are 11/60 (18.3%) for 17.4pts (+28.9%)
  • handicappers are 8/51 (15.7%) for 28.3pts (+55.5%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 10/50 (20%) for 40.3pts (+80.6%)
  • those rated (OR) 65-85 are 10/40 (25%) for 22.4pts (+55.9%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 7/29 (24.1%) for 26.3pts (+90.8%)
  • over the 1.5 mile trip : 4/21 (19.1%) for 15.1pts (+71.7%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 3/17 (17.7%) for 16.2pts (+95.3%)

Now, I appreciate that some of those sample sizes are a little small, so let's look at some more data that backs up the selection today and moving away from trainer/track stats, let's refer back to Wotabreeze's recent run of form, which leads us to the fact that...

...on the Flat in the UK during the months of April to September since 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds racing over trips of 7f to 1m4f off the back of three consecutive top 3 finishes, but were beaten last time out 6-30 days ago, got back to winning ways on 329 of 1574 (20.9% SR) occasions, generating profits of 353.6pts at an ROI of 22.5%.

And of those 1574 runners...

  • 3 yr olds are 243/1147 (21.2%) for 296.8pts (+25.9%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 139/715 (19.4%) for 211.9pts (+29.6%)
  • those racing on good to firm are 118/564 (20.9%) for 92.2pts (+16.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 129/459 (28.1%) for 120pts (+26.1%)
  • and those racing over 1m3.5f/1m4f are 56/305 (18.4%) for 87.8pts (+28.8%)

...so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Wotabreeze at 9/2 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook, who were the market leaders at 6.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.50 Stratford : Pembroke House @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up in rear but in touch, headway 3 out, never on terms)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invermere at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won 2 of her last 4 starts, including her last outing four weeks ago, when she was a winner over this course and distance under today's jockey Tony Hamilton. She did just enough that day to prevail in a tight race and with just a 1lb rise in weight to contend with, that knowledge of the track could prove very beneficial.

Since 2008, Richard Fahey's handicappers who were LTO winners and are now sent back to a venue where they had previously won over track and trip are 36 from 166 (21.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 30.85pts at an ROI of 18.6% and in respect of this particular event, those 166 runners are...

  • 34/139 (24.5%) for 51.1pts (+36.7%) over trips of 6 to 12 furlongs
  • 33/135 (24.4%) for 32.9pts (+24.4%) after a rest of 1 to 4 weeks
  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 14.9pts (+34.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 9.95pts (+27.7%) from his female runners
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 27.9pts (+82.1%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • and they are 2 from 6 933.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%) here at Catterick.

Moreover, Mr Fahey has a decent record at this venue too, especially in Class 2 to 4 handicaps, where his horses are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 36.3pts (+40.3% ROI) since the start of 2008 and we can break those down as follows...

  • those racing over 6/7f are 11/62 (17.7%) for 19.2pts (+31%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 14/54 (25.9%) for 33.7pts (+62.4%)
  • those with 1 to 3 previous career wins are 11/48 (22.9%) for 35.9pts (+74.8%)
  • those with 5-10 previous career runs are 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.2pts (+96.6%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground, they are 4/14 (28.6%) for 30.7pts (+218.9%)

AND...those priced at 8/1 and shorter over 6/7 furlongs with 1-2 previous wns from less than 10 outings are 6/12 (50% SR) for 20.1pts (+167.2% ROI), including Invermere herself when winning over course and distance last time out.

...but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Invermere at 4/1 BOG which was on offer pretty much everywhere at 8.05pm, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Broughton's Fancy @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/10 (Heavily backed. Broke well, soon tracking leaders, kept on under pressure closing stages, no chance with easy winner)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Best Trip at 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding has already won 6 times at Class 4 and has 5 wins over today's 6f trip. He's aslo 2 from 7 here at Catterick and 2 from 5 on good to firm ground, so conditions aren't exactly alien to him.

He's trained by Marjorie Fife who, despite not being the most prolific of trainers, does well here at Catterick in certain races that she appears to target and they are Class 4 to 6 handicaps where her runners are 12/59 (20.3% SR) for 57.5pts (+97.4% ROI) in the 11/4 to 14/1 price range, of which those ridden by a 5lb claimer are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 9.24pts (+54.4% ROI).

The in-form (3/11 in the last week) Nathan Evans takes the ride today and he's generally good value for his own 5lb claim and the yards success here from a small number of rides with a claimer is borne out more generally with an 11/63 (17.5% SR) record when claiming 5lbs in a flat handicap at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 since the start of 2011, which has resulted in profits of 28.9pts at an ROI of 45.9%.

Of those 63 runners, they are...

  • 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 36.2pts (+86.1% ROI) on grass
  • 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 19.4pts (+114.2% ROI) at the ages of 9 & 10
  • 4/16 (25% SR) for 16pts (+100% ROI) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 31.5pts (+262.4% ROI) over 6 furlongs

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Best Trip at 11/2 BOG with any one of around a half dozen firms offering the same odds at 8.05pm, so to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2016

Monday's Result :

5.35 Kempton: Dunraven Storm @ 13/2 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, ridden and clear before last, winning by 5 lengths).

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chilworth Bells at 100/30 BOG.

Why?

The horse... is 1 from 1 on soft ground and has a win and a third place from two starts under talented 5lb claimer Josephine Gordon.

The ground... shouldn't be an issue here, as David Barron's horses are 35/235 (14.9% SR) for 153pts (+65.4% ROI) on soft ground since the start of the 2010 campaign.

Type of race... again shouldn't be a problem, as the yard is 7/20 (35% SR) for 13.87pts (+69.4% ROI) in non-handicap races here at Catterick with runners priced at 12/1 or shorter over the last 6 seasons, whilst the last three years have produced 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) for 18.16pts (+201.8% ROI)

Chilworth Bells is also David's only runner at the track and also his only runner of the day. Since 2010, his solo track entrants are 147/802 (18.3% SR) for 184.7pts (+23.1% ROI), whilst those who were his only runners of the day are 84/435 (19.3% SR) for 135.7pts (+31.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Chilworth Bells at 100/30 BOG with any one of the eight firms quoting that price at 12.25am! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 27th January 2016

Well, Tuesday was just dire. No near misses, no hard luck stories, just poor, I'm afraid!

Fourth and sixth of eight beaten by 1.75 and 3.5 lengths respectively in our opener at Southwell wasn't the best of starts, but it was better than what followed 25 minutes later at Leicester!

There, we ended up with third and fourth of just five runners with both picks thoroughly well beaten by 10 and 75 lengths! I do always try to find something positive from the previous day's erformances/results, but the best I can muster this morning is the thought that surely I can't/won't have another such bad day for a long while?

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Dungannon : 4th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Mappin Time : 6th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Kings Apollo : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Call The Detective : 4th at 5/2 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
787 winning selections from 2836 = 27.75%
244 winning bets in 734 days = 33.24%

Stakes: 1467.00pts
Returns: 1540.40pts
P/L : +73.40pts (+5.00% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Selections...

3.35 Catterick

The obvious starting point for me is the hat-trick seeking Nautical Twilight, a 6yr old mare who has really taken to the bigger obstacles finshing 2411 in her four efforts to date. She has shown a real liking for the softer conditions that are abundant at present and was a very comfortable 10 lengths winner without coming off the bridle here over course and distance last time out. Yes, she's up in weight for that win, but she seemed to have plenty to spare that day and now having had a month to rest, I fancy Nautical Twilight to go in again at 9/4 BOG.

In opposition, I felt that whilst Aye Well has been running well of late, the handicapper seems to have put the brakes on him. He failed to defy top weight last time out, but is up another pound, so I've cautiously swerved him in favour of another in form runner, Uno Valoroso, who has finished as runner-up in back to back soft ground contests here at Catterick on his last two outings.

The latest of those runs saw him go down by just three quarters of a length over course and distance almost a fortnight ago and running off the same mark here, he lurks dangerously at the foot of the weights, receiving weight all round, including 15lbs from my first choice, which should make Uno Valoroso competitive at the very least at odds of around 3/1 BOG.

5.10 Kempton

A hurdles winner over 2m , but still a maiden after 10 efforts on the level, Russian Bolero strikes me as being better than his results suggest. He was second in a Listed contest in Germany in the summer of 2014 ands was considered good enought to take his place in the German Derby that year, despite not running his best race. He produced his best effort in the UK to date last time out, when a beaten favourite here a week ago.

He was only beaten by one from the in-form Ian Williams yard, who are flying at present, so no disgrace there and running off the same mark over the same track and trip, this could finally be Russian Bolero's day at around 9/2 BOG, but if he does find one just too good for him again, it might well be an old adversary who beats him in the guise of the 9/4 BOG Rivers Run.

This one is trained by Ralph Beckett, who is profitable to follow generally, and also at this track. In addition to his overall record, he has a near 25% strike rate in Kempton maidens since 2010 and has a good record when only having the one runner at a meeting, as he does here.

As for Rivers Run herself, she ran well over this trip, finishing 3rd on debut at Wolverhampton in December, where she had Russian Bolero a place and 3 lengths further and despite being the victim of a tactical affair over a shorter trip on her only other run, she'll be dangerous back at 1m4f today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Nautical Twilight / Rivers Run @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Ladbrokes)
Nautical Twilight / Russian Bolero @ 21.75/1 (9/4 & 6/1 : Betway)
Uno Valoroso / Rivers Run @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Uno Valoroso / Russian Bolero @ 25.25/1 (11/4 & 6/1 : Betway)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 1st January 2016

Double Dutch, 1st January 2016

After what has been a really difficult time of it for Double Dutch, it was good to close 2015 with two winning days from three, as we followed up Tuesday's long-awaited success with a 15.88/1 return yesterday.

The McManus horse, Sir Abbot, flopped again at Punchestown and failed to complete the contest, but thankfully Rolling Rocket was up for the fight and despite losing the lead after a mistake at the last, rallied again to stay on for a win by three parts of a length.

That gave us an 11/4 winner to take to the Warwick race, which started immediately after our first had ended, so we didn't have long to await our fate!

And my faith on a 20-race maiden was justified as Solidago beat fellow 3/1 jt fav Rebekah Rabbit by three and a half lengths to allow us to end the year on a high.

The icing on the cake for patient followers of this column was the 13/1 return from the Exacta, making this DD's best day for some time.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Rolling Rocket : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Sir Abbot : PU at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Solidago : WON at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Rebekah Rabbit : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £14.00 to a £1.00 stake here

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
768 winning selections from 2750 = 27.93%
240 winning bets in 712 days = 33.71%

Stakes: 1423.00pts
Returns: 1505.04pts
P/L : +82.04pts (+5.77% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

12.35 Exeter :

If you bet based on recent form figures, it's highly likely you'll bypass this race today, but I feel that Buckboru is a better horse than a 0/9 record over hurdles would suggest. She's always given the impression that she was built more for stamina than speed and the majority of her runs have either been over inadequately short trips, on ground too quick for him or a combination of the two.

Therefore, 2m7f on heavy ground should be right up her street and she's already made the frame twice here at Exeter in 5 appearances and has a 50% place strike rate (3/6) on heavy ground, suggesting that today could very well be the day for Buckboru at 11/4 BOG, especially with her being 7lbs better off from his last run and the first time fitting of cheekpieces.

The one she'll have most to worry about is likely to be fellow 11/4 BOG chance Precious Ground, who despite being pretty well beaten into third place last time out, proved he gets the trip on heavy ground at Chepstow. He was also third here at Exeter two starts ago, despite coming off a break of 240 days, finishing 8 lengths behind a runner-up who has gone on to win next time out.

Precious Ground was 8 lengths clear of Buckboru that day and although the latter is now better off at the weights, they'll probably still be very closely matched, which does somewhat suggest an all or nothing return from the contest for us!

*

2.50 Catterick :

When I was going through the cards looking for possible bets for the Stat of the Day and Stat Picks services, I liked the look of both Roxyfet and Rear Admiral, but couldn't select either of them, as they're both in the same race! The beauty of DD, of course, is that I can have both here.

Roxyfet has won two of his last four outings, including a win by 8 lengths on heavy ground at Sedgefield last time out (Boxing Day). He's obviously penalised for that win, but in receipt of weight all around and having shown a liking for the mud in the past, has an obvious clear chance of doubling up here at 5/2 BOG.

Rear Admiral is also priced up at 5/2 BOG and this lightly raced 10 yr old has been solidly reliable this year over fences after returning to the bigger obstacles from a period spent hurdling. He actually made his chasing bow on Boxing Day 2012, when a runner-up at Market Rasen, but didn't see another fence until January 2015, when 5th at Doncaster.

Since then, he finished 222, before a 7 month break after which he was once again a runner-up, but only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield, probably needing the run. He benefited from the pipe-opener and eventually broke his chasing duck next/last time out at Musselburgh. Rear Admiral always seems to run well and as such is of interest again today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Buckboru / Roxyfet @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Buckboru / Rear Admiral @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Precious Ground / Roxyfet @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Precious Ground / Rear Admiral @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)

Double Dutch, 15th December 2015

Double Dutch, 15th December 2015

It's getting a bit like groundhog day here, as we seeem to be constantly hitting the crossbar. We ended up with a winner, a runner-up and another third place from our four runners yesterday, so whilst I'm happy with the picks, a win eluded us yet again.

And that's because Captainofindustry was collared in the shadow of the post in our opener at Ffos Las, as he ran out of steam late on to be pipped by the in form Wedge/Williams combo and Pobbles Bay.

They do, however, say that luck evens itself out over time and we only had to wait 80 minutes for the balance to be restored, as we got a very lucky win of our own for Black Narcissus. The leader Goring Two was travelling strongly and pouring it on approaching the last well clear of the field and as has happened to a few of my own selections of late, he made a hash of the last and hit the deck, handing us a very fortuitious victory.

So, I suppose, we pretty much ended up with what we deserved ie close,

Monday's results were as follows:

Captainofindustry : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Saint John Henry : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Black Narcissus : WON at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
It's A Close Call : fell at 4/1 (adv 7/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
753 winning selections from 2702 = 27.87%
236 winning bets in 700 days = 33.71%

Stakes: 1399.00pts
Returns: 1475.60pts
P/L : +76.6pts (+5.48% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

1.45 Catterick :

Captain Bocelli showed enough promise in a couple of bumpers (inc a 40/1 win on debut!) to suggest he'll have enough in the locker to land a moderate hurdles race like this one. Add to the mix that he's moved to the Philip Hobbs yard and will be ridden by Richard Johnson gives an indication why this son of Kayf Tara is priced at 7/4 BOG to land another win on his hurdles/yard debut today.

The one to challenge him should be Poulanassy from the in-form Evan Williams stable, ridden by Adam Wedge who has also been well amongst the winners of late and they team up with a horse who has the benefit of two previous hurdles contests under his belt, including a win at Sedgefield last time out, where he made all on soft-ish ground. He's penalised for the win,. of course, but this looks a simlarly weak contest to that last run and at 4/1 BOG could offer some real value.

*

5.40 Kempton :

Despite an 8lb hike in weights, Tijuca looks well placed to record back to back victories after coming back to form at Wolverhampton last time out. She was weraing a tongue tie and cheekpieces for the first time that day and they seemed to do the trick as she swept from the rear of the 10-runner field to lead inside the final furlong and so strong was her finish that within the last 100 yards or so she opened up a near 4 length winning margin.

A repeat of that kind of run puts her right in the mix and provided she's not too far off the pace with 2f to run, she has every chance of doubling up at 11/4 BOG...

...ahead of triple course and distance winner and 7/2 BOG-priced Bennelong, who has just found one too good in each of his last two outings, both here in this grade and at 1m2f and it is hoped that a drop back in trip off a workable mark will be the key to getting him back into the winners' enclosure on his 102nd outing, but if he does find one too good again, it's hopefully Tijuca!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Captain Bocelli / Tijuca @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Captain Bocelli / Bennelong @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : generally)
Poulanassy / Tijuca @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)
Poulanassy / Bennelong @ 21.5/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : generally)

Double Dutch, 27th October 2015

Double Dutch, 27th October 2015

A good start to the week with a pair of winners, a runner-up and a fourth place finish, as Love The Leader led Andhaar by a length at Ayr, providing us with a bonus exacta of a 13/1 or so payout.

Then later at Leicester, Keenes Point was convincingly beaten into fourth place by a good six lengths, but thankfully the winner, Uncle Dermot, was one of ours and this success ensured a 13/1 double to kick off the week in style.

Monday's results were as follows:

Love The Leader : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Andhaar : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
The exacta paid out at 6.7/1 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Uncle Dermot : WON at 10/3 (adv 5/2)
Keenes Pointe : 4th at 7/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
709 winning selections from 2538 = 27.94%
226 winning bets in 658 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1315.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +111.64pts (+8.49% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

These are Tuesday's selected races...

1.55 Bangor :

0 from 5 in bumpers and 0 from 12 over hurdles wouldn't normally make a horse a 2/1 BOG favourite, but Fred Le Macon is probably the solid form prospect here today, such is the "quality" of this race. Seven top four finishes this year from his seven starts shows reliability and consistency over trips of 1m7.5f through to 2m6f and on ground ranging from good right down to heavy.

Unlike many runners in such conditional jockey events, he's not "trading down" from an established pro jockey to a claimer here, as he's well used to being handled by 10lb claimers of late. The yard is in good form (5/21 in the last fortnight) and their horses tend to go well here and this probably represents Fred Le Macon's easiest task to date and he comes here off the back of just a 1.75 length defeat last time out.

Bears Rails, on the other hand, comes here lightly raced, fresh and unexposed. Just six starts to date (3 over hurdles), he has had a 203 day rest and now makes his handicap debut in a contest that shouldn't take too much winning here at around 100/30 BOG, if truth be told.

When last seen, Bear Rails was third of nine, sent off at 25/1 at Newton Abbot and since 2008, handicap hurdle debutants with just 3 to 6 previous hurdles runs running more than 3 weeks after they were sent off at 25/1 or bigger were winners on handicap debut in 80 of 390 (20.5% SR) races for profits of 64.7pts at an ROI of 16.6%

*

2.50 Catterick :

Sinakar joined David O'Meara's string in August and after a couple of sighters over inadequately short trips in the autumn for his new yard, was a winner on handicap debut over 1m5f at Ayr 19 days ago. He was doing all his best work late on, having been kept in trhe rear for the most part by today's jockey Danny Tudhope, who gave the 4 yr old a well timed run to the head of affairs to win by a head.

Sinakar looked to have plenty more to give and should relish the step up in trip again today under a jockey having a fine season with 76 winners from 434 (17.5% SR) since the start of the year and if you'd had a tenner on all of Danny's rides, you'd now be just over £1300 (+30% ROI) better off. He also has a 17.4% SR for David O'Meara over the last four years and this suggests a 9/4 BOG bet on Sinakar could well be a good one.

He won't, however, have it all his own way and there are a couple here that might trouble him (it's at this point I risk invoking Sod's Law and picking the wrong one!) and there's little to choose between Grams And Ounces and Rock On Bollinski. Both have won 2 of their last three outings, both have won at this trip and both have won under today's jockeys.

I am, however, going to side with Grams And Ounces, who will carry 16lbs less than his rival here and stamina isn't asn issue for a horse that is 2 from 4 at 2m4f, yet als0 possesses enough ground speed to have won three times at 9.5/10 furlongs in the past. It'll probably be a close run thing, but in soft conditions over 2 miles, 16lbs is a big difference, just tipping the balance towards this 7/2 BOG prospect.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Fred Le Macon / Sinakar @ 8.35/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : generally)
Fred Le Macon / Grams And Ounces @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Betway)
Bears Rails / Sinakar @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Bears Rails / Grams And Ounces @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betway)

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

A nice 17/1 double on Friday as both Maid of Tuscany and Point of Woods did the business for us and with Nebula Storm finishing second at Fakenham, those of you on the forecast landed a 14.5/1 bonus.

And it was almost the perfect DD day, but Bochart was a length adrift of finishing second at Wolverhampton, but two winners (inc our 700th) and two placers is excellent news from our 650th set of selections.

Friday's results were as follows:

Maid of Tuscany : WON at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Nebula Storm : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
The forecast paid £15.52 here
----------------------------------------------------
Point of Woods : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Bochart : 3rd at 15/2 (adv 6/1)

Results to date:
700 winning selections from 2506 = 27.93%
223 winning bets in 650 days = 34.31%

Stakes: 1299.00pts
Returns: 1406.02pts
P/L : +107.02pts (+8.24% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are the last picks of the week...

1.40 Catterick :

After being outpaced on debut and finishing well down the field at Carlisle, Indian Pursuit (15/8 BOG) has finished third in each of his subsequent three starts, the latest of which was four weeks ago over this course and distance, when only beaten by a length and three quarters whilst staying on well from mid-division.

Both the winner, the runner-up and the 8th placed horse (who was 10L further back) have all reappeared and won since that day, suggesting that Indian Pursuit will go well again here, provided he handles the soft ground, although he has raced on good to soft over track and trip two starts ago.

The main rival on form, at least, would have to be the 9/4 BOG Dacoity, who has also finished third in his last/only two outings. He showed plenty of promise when beaten by less than a length at Pontefract over 5f two months ago, finishing a length ahead of Swirral Edge who was a 12/1 winner on nursery debut at Ayr nine days ago.

Dacoity then stepped up to today's 6f trip for his run at Nottingham, when third once again, but he ran well enough and coped with the soft ground. That experience of stepping up to this trip and also of running on soft will stand him in good stead and he represents a yard with a decent record at this venue.

*

1.45 Stratford :

Poetic Verse is both reliable and versatile, having won 6 races on the level (5 from 13 at 11.5/12 f), so she's unlikely to be done for pace here. She won over hurdles for the first time at Cartmel last September and won again (comfortably) at Market Rasen on her last effort over timber 11 weeks ago.

She's been back on the Flat to sharpen up since that run, beaten by just a length in a decent enough Class 3 handicap at Catterick over 1m4f and at 5/2 BOGPoetic Verse should just have enough to make the most of the 5lb she gets...

...from top weight and 9/2 BOG Bantam, who has taken well to hurdling this year, winning twice and finishing as a runner-up on three occasions, all from just six runs in 2015 (221412). She may well have been beaten at odds on last time around at Newton Abbot, but that was over 2m2.5f and was two furlongs further than she'd been before.

She led until two out that day, before running out of steam and the drop back to 2m is sure to be in her favour here, although it wouldn't be unfair to suggest Bantam is as high in the weights as you'd want her to be, but that is, of course, reflected in the price.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Indian Pursuit / Poetic Verse @ 9.08/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfred, Stan James & Totesport)
Indian Pursuit / Bantam @ 14.84/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Betway & Stan James)
Dacoity / Poetic Verse @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Dacoity / Bantam @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Betway)

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2015

We took 11/2 BOG about Stardrifter yesterday and that was looking like a good piece of business as he went as low as 7/2. Then the rain fell and the good to firm ground, I'd based much of my work on, was gone. Jockeys said it was riding on the soft side of good and this did seem to affect our runner.

He drifted back out to an SP matching our advised 11/2 and although he ran his race, he never looked really settled/happy on the softer ground and eventually succumbed to a two length defeat back in fifth place.

No qualms at all with the way Jack Garrity rode the Fahey horse, which is just as well as I'm sticking with them for the...

2.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where the call is a bet at 5/2 BOG on Early Bird, who comes here attempting to get off the mark at the fifth time of asking, having finished 4342 so far. This 2yr old filly's best run to date was when finishing second last time out at Musselburgh, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

That was her first crack at this 5f trip and although she was headed inside the final furlong, she was conceding 12lbs to the overall winner and she can be expected to come on for having tried the trip.

Trainer Richard Fahey's record here at Catterick with fancied runners is good, with 32 winners from the 83 runners (38.6% SR) priced at 4/1 and shorter since 2008 and these runners have generated level stakes profits of 38.5pts at an ROI of 46.4%.

Of those 83 shorter priced runners, the record in 2yr old maidens like today's contest stands at 11 winners from 22 (50% SR) for 14.76 pts (+67.1% ROI) profit.

Without going over old ground from yesterday too much, it's safe to say that Richard Fahey has every trust in Jack Garrity, having already given him 295 rides and that faith has been rewarded via 52 winners (17.6% SR) and 65.9pts (+22.3% ROI) profit.

Jack also has a good record at lower odds here at Catterick having won three times from six rides below 5/1 with the 50% SR producing 6.41 pts (106.8% ROI) profit he's two from three on such horses trained by Richard Fahey for 4.99pts (+166.3% ROI) profit.

Those are my reasons for backing Early Bird at 5/2 BOG and I've placed that bet with Bet365, but the same price is available elsewhere at Paddy Power, BetVictor and Ladbrokes, although the latter won't go BOG until 9.00am.

You can take your pick of the bookies, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.