Posts

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2015

An excellent day for SotD on Monday, as we grabbed our first (of hopefully many!) winner of the month (in fairness, only the second pick!) courtesy of a run that was worrying, brilliant and nerve-wracking at different times over just five furlongs by our 5/1 shot Red Invader.

He was worryingly slow away from the stalls and also when running very wide, but was brilliant in the way he seemed to glide past all in front of him to assert a decent lead with a furlong to run and then came the nerve-wracking finale to the race.

Did he idle when in front, did Rachel Wilson ease him down a little too soon? We'll never know, but I'd guess it was a bit of both and in the end, there was no harm done as they'd already put enough between themselves and the pack to hold on to win by a neck.

The icing on the cake came in the form of a drift from an alreasdy generous looking 5/1 out to 6/1 at the off, setting us up nicely for the week ahead and I aim to keep the ball rolling in Tuesday's...

4.45 Catterick :

Which is a six furlong, Class 5 open age (3yo+) handicap on good to soft ground, where eight rivals will attempt to deny Alaskan Wing a third win in four starts, a task that the 3yr old gelding is priced up at 100/30 BOG (Hills) to complete.

As many of you know, I keep a large stock of microsystems which poiint me in the direction of making a shortlist for my SotD selections and occasionally (but not very often!), I'll draw on the same stat two days running, especially if its a microsystem that's in form!

So, like Red Invader yesterday, Alaskan Wing has finished 113 in his last three outings and now returns to the track to run over 6f after a short break. I said yesterday, that since the start of the 2o12 season, flat runners aged 3 to 5 who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 days ago and were winners two starts ago, were profitable to follow at trhe shorter race distances.

Well, those competing over trips of 5f to a mile are 220/1204 (18.3% SR) for 321.7pts at an ROI of 26.7%, with those beaten by 0.25 to 2 lengths last time out returning to winning ways on 101/478 (21.1% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 233.6pts (+48.9% ROI).

Those narrowly beaten (as above) who then ran at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 81 from 323 (25.1% SR) for 177.4pts (+55% ROI) adding a further layer of reasoning to the pick.

Alaskan Wing's latest run was 19 days ago, which should be enough to freshen him up after attempting to land an 8-day hat-trick last month. He only went down by half a length having been caught late on and looking a little tired towards the finish, so the rest should help.

Also in his favour is his profile with this race in mind, as he's 2/3 here at Catterick (2/2 in hcps). He has won 3 of 5 races on good to soft ground (12113, all in hcps) and he is 2 from three at today's 6f trip, also all in handicap company.

He has won three of his eight runs in races of 6 to 10 runners (3/6 in 6-10 runner handicaps) and probably more relevantly, he is 2 from 2 over course and distance here at Catterick, both on good to soft ground, one with 6 runners and the other with 10 and one of those was at today's Class 5 level.

The main stat allied to the suitable profile suggest that 100/30 BOG from Hills is a decent offer for Alaskan Wing, as is the 3/1 BOG that is widely available

To see what the other bookies are quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 15th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th July 2015

When a fourth placed finish at 4/1, beaten by over three lengths is your best result of the day, you know you've struggled and that proved to be the case for DD yesterday. Hold Firm and Knight of the Air were only a short head apart at Lingfield, but with three other runners in front of them and that 3 lengths gap, our bet was down for the day.

The pride salvaging mission later at Thirsk proved to be even worse as our runners came home 5th and 8th of just nine runners, beaten by 4L and 11.5L respectively on a day to forget.

Thankfully, we don't have too many days like that!

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Hold Firm : 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Knight of the Air : 5th at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Stoneboat Bill : 5th at 6/4 (adv 4/1)
Thankstomonty : 8th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
624 winning selections from 2199 = 28.38%
198 winning bets in 570 days = 34.74%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1139.50pts
Returns: 1263.34pts
P/L : +123.84pts (+10.87% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

My selected races for Wednesday are...

2.30 Catterick :

Which, on the face of things, looks a pretty desperate affair, but could offer Eland Ally the chance of doubling his number of career wins! In fairness, he has run pretty well of late, making the frame on a couple of occasions in handicap company in far better races than this one.

This looks like a marked drop in class here for a horse running in a seller for the first time and with his yard having a good record in seller races and him looking the best at the weights, today could well be Eland Ally's day at 3/1 BOG.

The market, however, seems to prefer Grey Destiny, who has been installed as the 15/8 BOG favourite here, presumably on the back of a couple of narrow defeats over this trip recently.

In fairness, this is also a step down in quality for the horse and if reproducing the form from those two defeats, then it could well be all it takes for Grey Destiny to break his duck here. The booking of jockey David Allan is a positive one for me, as he's 4/17 in the past week and 4/9 here at Catterick this year and has a  longer-term 16% strike rate at this track.

*

2.40 Lingfield :

Witrh 14 races under her belt, Baileys Pursuit is easily the most exposed runner here (her 7 rivals have just 29 starts between them!), but she has been running consistently well and rounded off as good spell with a win over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out. That ended a 40-day run of form reading 3231 and she's been allowed 16 days to get over that win, so should be fresh enough today.

She is up 5lbs for that win, which might look a tad harsh for a one length margin of victory, but closer inspection of the race shows she completely blew the start and handed her rivals several lengths, which is far from ideal in a 6f contest, so 5lbs might actually be quite fair. She goes equally well on turf as she does on A/W and the blinkers she wore for the first time LTO are reapplied here. Baileys Pursuit is currently priced at 2/1 BOG.

Of her rivals here, only Dunnscotia has any real form to consider, having made the frame in two of his last three outings and this one improved upon his seasonal reappearance when second of 8 in handicap at Bath over this trip last month. He was a length and a half ahead of the 3rd-placed Magical Daze that day and the latter has since reappeared and won by three lengths over this trip and if he improves as much as she did, then Dunnscotia has a real chance here at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Grey Destiny / Baileys Pursuit @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365, Betfair & Stan James)
Grey Destiny / Dunnscotia @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Eland Ally / Baileys Pursuit @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Eland Ally / Dunnscotia @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Hills)

Double Dutch, 8th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th July 2015

Tuesday was much better than Monday with a winner and the third placed horse in both races.

Riviera Sun just about made all at a snail's pace at Roscommon before finishing the strongest with Children's List 1.5 lengths behind, setting us up nicely for Brighton...

...where Juventas was the best of the threee horses that swamped the original leader inside the final furlong and stayed on best to win by half a length with Welsh Inlet a further 2.5 lengths back in third.

Monday's results were as follows:

Riviera Sun : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Childrens List : 3rd at 10/3 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Juventas : WON at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Welsh Inlet : 3rd at 17/2 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
618 winning selections from 2176 = 28.40%
196 winning bets in 564 days = 34.75%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1127.50pts
Returns: 1249.69pts
P/L : +122.19pts (+10.84% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

More of the same for Wednesday would be nice...

4.30 Catterick :

Hot Spice is turned out under a penalty just seven days after making all to win at Thirsk over a similar trip to today and with no apparent other pace option in the race, he could well assert an easy opeing lead. If this is the case, the others will struggle to reel him in and he could well take this relatively easily at around 3/1 BOG.

He's a former course and distance winner, so he's used to the conditions here if nothing else, but I should add that he wouldn't want it to get much softer than present. Looking at his career profile, all his best work has been at this trip, he prefers to go left handed and goes well under today's jockey. The weather is the unknown factor for Hot Spice here.

High Secret was second off today's mark over today's trip at Kempton a week ago and since going handicapping last September has won four of eight starts, making the frame (322) in three of his four defeats. He now drops down in class to represent a yard with a 35% strike rate at this track in the last five seasons.

An easier task allied to slightly quicker ground (providing it doesn't hammer it down!) might be all that's needed for High Secret to improve upon last week's 2.75 length defeat and if you think that's feasible, odds of up to 7/2 BOG are on offer here.

*

9.20 Kempton :

Acolyte hasn't raced here at Kempton since winning a course and distance maiden 10 months ago, but comes here in good form (232) from three decent efforts on the turf this season, most notably in losing by 1.25 and 1 length in a pair of runner-up finishes at Windsor. Well drawn in stall 1 with conditions looking ideal, this 3yr old should take full advantage of his 6lb weight for age allowance to score again at 5/2 BOG, whilst a similar price is available...

...for Spring Fling, who I see as the biggest danger. She's a lightly raced 4yr old, but if ready to go after a long (223 days) layoff, would go close if running to the same levels as displayed last season. Beaten by just a neck into second place over this trip on soft ground at Salisbury, she then made all to win at Windsor before rounding off the campaign with a decent runner-up finish over this course and distance.

Spring Fling is in very good hands at the Candy yard and the team have been around the block enough to know whether she's ready or not.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Hot Spice / Acolyte @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Hot Spice / Spring Fling @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
High Secret / Acolyte @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Hills)
High Secret / Spring Fling @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2015

Thursday's race and subsequent win was a good reminder of a couple of fairly obvious but occasionally forgotten things.

Firstly, that drifters can still win (the horse doesn't know nobody's backing him!) and secondly that you really must use BOG bookies whenever possible.

I put Steel Summit up and was really happy to get 4/1, expecting him to go off around 5/2, but he was sent off at an amazing 6/1, before proceeding to make all, jump brilliantly and coast home by 8 lengths for the second race in a row.

He defied an 8lb rise and on that showing could handle yet another rise and still win again. Back to back wins for SotD have put us in a good position early in the month and I'll be seeking a hat-trick via Friday's...

2.50 Catterick:

A Class 5, 5 furlong handicap on ground currently described as good with good to firm patches, where Ann Duffield's Landing Night seeks a third win in six outings and back-to-back course and distance wins in the space of a week.

Ann Duffield has got her horses playing a fine tune at present, with 4 winners from just 12 runners in the last 7 days and she particularly likes coming here to Catterick. Since 2010 her horses priced at 6/4 to 10/1 have won 14 of 65 (21.5% SR) races here for 38.2pts (+58.8% ROI) profit.

Her 5f runners here in that time are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 8pts (+44.4% ROI) profit and with the weather forecast to be fine, the quicker ground should suit Ann's runner here, as on Good/Good to Firm ground, they are 12/47 (25.5% SR) for 49.8pts at an ROI of 105.9%.

Today's jockey is the in-form PJ McDonald who has ridden 6 winners from 20 in the last week and also has a good record here at Catterick, winning on 34 of his 262 (13% SR) mounts for 89pts (+34% ROI) profit since 2010 and in handicap contests he is 25/184 (13.6% SR) for 100pts (+54.4% ROI) and over trips of 5 furlongs, he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 46.7pts (+129.8% ROI).

And if you backed the Ann Duffield horses ridden by PJ McDonald here at Catterick since the start of the 2013 campaign, you would have backed 7 winners from 32 (21.9% SR) for 31.2pts profits at an ROI of 97.4% with all 7 winners coming from the 18 runners priced at 10/1 or shorter with that 38.9% strike rate yielding 45.2pts profit (+250.9% ROI)

As for Landing Night, this is only his eighth start, so there isn't a vast bank of stats/data to call upon, but I can tell you that he was a course and distance winner here a week ago and he has won two and been placed in two of his five starts at 5 furlongs. He is 1 from 1 running within a week of his last run, 1 from 1 in cheekpieces and 2 from 3 when sent off as favourite, which is likely here.

He has, of course, been raised 6lbs for that most recent success, but as a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, he does receive a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, enabling him to remain competitive and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Landing Night go in again at 3/1 BOG.

I'll be reinvesting with Bet365 once again, but the same 3/1 BOG price is available with Betfair SB, BetVictor and Hills, so you should be able to pick your preferred bookie by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.50 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2015

Things have been improving slowly of late and I though that taking four well fancied selections on Thursday was a safe move that would not only protect recent proift, but would actually top them up by a small amount.

I couldn't have been more wrong, as I failed to find a single winner, never mind two!

At Bath, we had 3rd and 4th of 5 runners, beaten by just over 1.5 lengths and 5 lengths respectively, whilst it wasn't much better at Pontefract where we had to settle for 2nd and 4th.  Our runner-up was just half a length away from winning, with our final runner another 4 lengths further back on a poor day all round.

Friday's results were as follows:

Keen Move : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Let Right Be Done : 4th at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
----------------------------------------------------
Carrington : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Ravenhoe : 4th at 9/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
582 winning selections from 2028 = 28.70%
183 winning bets in 526 days = 34.79%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1051.50pts
Returns: 1163.33pts

P/L : +111.83pts (+10.64% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This week's final offerings are as follows...

3.00 Catterick:

Rousayan is the form horse here and is deservedly the 15/8 BOG favourite based on his two runs this season. He was touched off by a nose at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance from a 28-week break over a mile four weeks ago, before making all and just holding on to win by head at Beverley a week later. A step back in trip might make give him a little more breathing space pate on and he has only been raised 3lbs for this year's efforts.

This means he now runs off 80, but was a decent third off 79 at Roscommon last summer over this trip when only beaten by a length and a quarter behind two horses who have both gone on to win again since. A repeat of recent runs should be more than enouh for Rousayan to take a race in which most if not all his rivals have questions to answer.

Seven of his nine rivals have won over today's trips, but only Dr Red Eye has a course and distance win to his name and he's the only one with a decent strike rate at this trip. He's clearly not the 90-rated Class2 winner that he was 2 years ago, but does set the standard at this trip in a fairly ordinary looking field. He has won 5 of 24 races on the Flat over 7f with an excellent return of 4 wins and and three places from just thirteen starts in Class 4 handciaps over this trips.

He's happy in these mid-sized fields, prefers to go left handed nowadays and tends to save his best form for the May to July period. He's happy enough running here and although it's a tentative pick and not one I'd be too keen to back as a single, I do believe that Dr Red Eye is the best of the rest here and is, therefore my alternate at 11/2 BOG and you never know!

*

5.15 Goodwood:

Privileged didn't really show much on her debut at Newbury five weeks ago, when she looked weak when push came to shove, but gave a much improved effort next (and last) time out to finish third at Lingfield three weeks ago. The horses either side of her in 2nd and 4th places have both ran again since and have put up improved performances in making the frame.

With that in mind it's not unreasonable to expect further progression from Privileged today putting her right in the mix at 9/4 BOG in what looks a pretty weak contest, if I'm honest. She will, however, have, to work for a win, if Black Cherry shows anything like the form she showed last season as a juvenile.

She improved with each of her three runs finishing 532, culminating in a 1.25 length defeat two grades higher than this race and doing enough to earn herself an opening handicap mark of 84, so the assessor thinks she has some ability.

She was disappointing on her reappearance at Newmarket in a Class 4 maiden at Newmarket five weeks ago, but she may well have needed the run after a break of 224 days and another drop down in class into a weak race with Cam Hardies taking 3lbs off might just be what Black Cherry needs for a first win at 15/8 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Rousayan / Black Cherry @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Rousayan / Privileged @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betfair SB & Bet365)
Dr Red Eye / Black Cherry @ 17.69/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Dr Red Eye / Privileged @ 18.50/1 (11/2 & 2/1 : Betfair SB, SkyBet & Paddy)

Double Dutch, 4th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th March 2015

Well, Tuesday was pretty poor by any standards, I'm afraid.

Race 1 started with a rare off day for A/W maestros Rae Guest and Mick Appleby for whom Miniskirt and Westminster could only finish 4th & 5th respectively and with Mick's other runner in the race finishing third, it wasn't the best of results for him.

In fact his day sort of mirrored mine, as he unusually went 0/5 across the card, when he'd normally pick up a winner or two.

This meant that the later race at Newcastle was just a face-saving exercise for me, but Jac The Legend's defeat summed up my afternoon quite succinctly.

He was the runner-up, which isn't a bad result, but he was beaten by a 14/1 shot, for whom I'd considered the only redeeming feature was the booking of track specialist James Reveley who took his 5-year tally in Newcastle handicap chases to 20/70! That's a booking to keep an eye on.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Westminster : u/p at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Miniskirt : u/p at 10/3 (adv 11/4)
------------------------------------------
Jac The Legend : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Blue Kascade : PU at 5/2 (adv 18/5)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
505 winning selections from 1767 = 28.58%
159 winning bets in 458 days = 34.72%

Stakes: 915.50pts
Returns: 1019.90pts

P/L : +104.40pts (+11.40% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

After a couple of forgettable days, I could do with a winner (preferably two!) from the following contests on Wednesday...

4.10 Catterick:

Henri de Boistron represents the powerful Brennan/George alliance here and will be seeking to follow up a first win over fences achieved at the third time of asking at Leicester three weeks ago. He had to be tough and resolute that day and stayed on nicely to lead late on, getting home by just a neck.

He's only 5yrs old, with very few miles on the clock and is entitled/expected to continue his improvement over fences and it's worth noting that he had Artifice Sivola five lengths behind him last time out, but the latter has since won by 20 lengths at Fakenham as recently as Monday. You can currently get 15/8 BOG about Henri de Boistron also winning again.

15/8 BOG is also the price of his expected biggest rival Cousin Guillaume, who ran well despite falling whilst in contention at the last at Musselburgh last time out. That was two months ago, so he's had plenty of time to recover and that was only his second effort over fences, having gone well for most of his debut, before tiring in the closing stages to finish third at Newcastle.

That was over 2m4f, though and he showed that this shorter trip was more suitable in that run at Musselburgh LTO. He has since changed hands and it is hoped that new handler Donald MCCain will be able to get a bit more out of him here, as he generally tends to!

*

5.45 Kempton:

I backed Nouvelle Ere for Stat of the Day, when he last ran and won here over a mile a fortnight ago and although he was narrowly beaten at Wolverhampton last time out, that was his first crack at 1m4f and was only half a length behind the winner Gios Last (who I'd nominated for this DD blog!). Prior to the win at Kempton, he had won over today's 1m2f at Chelmsford.

That puts his form this year at 112 and if you consider he's actually been eased a pound for today's race, he has to be respected and considered the likeliest winner here at what looks a value-laden 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor.

The one I'll take as a backup is a bit of a punt on paper with the 8/1 BOG selection of Thirtypointstothree, who ran well at Wolverhampton last time out, beaten by only half a length off today's mark of 52. He'll be assisted by the booking of 7lb claimer Aaron Jones today. Aaron has ridden the horse twice in the past, so he's familiar with him and the weight claim puts them right down towards the foot of the weights, which might be all important in a poor-looking contest.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Henri de Boistron / Nouvelle Ere @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : betVictor)
Henri de Boistron / Thirtypointstothree @ 24.88/1 (15/8 & 8/1 : Stan James)
Cousin Guillaume / Nouvelle Ere @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : betVictor)
Cousin Guillaume / Thirtypointstothree @ 26/1 (2/1 & 8/1 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 24th February 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th February 2015

There was no 500th single winner for us yesterday, but we did inch a little closer when Scimon Templar was a7/2 winner at Ayr in our second race and although the warm favourite Mukaynis had disappointed earlier at Wolverhampton, we still made a small profit.

And that was because Pearl Noir was a non-runner, meaning we got paid on a 7/2 single on our winner giving us a 0.25pts profit on the day. It's not huge, but it's a 12.5% yield, which is pretty good all things considered.

Monday's results were as follows:

Mukaynis : 4th at Evens (adv 6/4 after a 20p R4 deduction)
Pearl Noir : non-runner (adv 9/2)
------------------------------------------
Scimon Templar : WON at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Kilkenny Kim : PU at 11/4 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
499 winning selections from 1741 = 28.66%
156 winning bets in 451 days = 34.59%

Stakes: 901.50pts
Returns: 1005.94pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +104.44pts (+11.59% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Now we're just one shy of 500 winners, but I'd really like to skip 500 and get straight to 501 from these races...

2.10 Lingfield:

As I tend to do in these weak looking maidens, I'll take one that showed a bit of promise in a past run and one making its racecourse debut.

Things didn't quite go right for Regards a month ago on debut at Wolverhampton and he had to make up quite a bit of ground in the second half of the race, but to his credit he stuck to the task and stayed on well to get within less that 3 lengths of the winner.

He was 2.75 lengths behind After The Sunset and 2 lengths ahead of Beat Cool and both have subsequently reappeared and won since. Regards is entitled to improve for having had a run and if the resultant form of his debut holds out, he has every chance here at 7/4 BOG.

Rain Wind And Fire has an impressive pedigree behind him and is an interesting runner here on debut and after a quite inactive spell here in the UK, trainer and jockey are both looking like coming into some good form and both have decent records at this track.

This Eskendereya colt is a half-brother to useful 2-y-o 6f winner Califante and his dam was an unraced half-sister to Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus. He should have no difficulty with the surface and if ready, Rain Wind And Fire could take this at 9/4 BOG (skyBet).

*

4.30 Catterick:

Uno Valoroso (0/12 prior to going chasing) is a different animal over fences with a record reading 113. He failed in his bid to defy an 8lb (15lb in total) rise when seeking a hat-trick last time out at Hexham a fortnight ago. However, the extremely testing conditions were possibly the cause of his downfall, as he was only headed on the run-in when tiring.

There was also a suggestion that he was too aggrssively ridden by Jake Greenall that day, but the return of Tony Kelly (2/1 on the horse), a slight drop back in trip allied to much better ground mean that Uno Valoroso is a very likely contender here again at 2/1 BOG today, especially as he runs off the same mark as last time out, but Tony takes 3lbs off.

The 11/4 BOG Billy Cuckoo is the one who threatens to be the fly in the ointment here, as he seemed to be coming back to something like decent form last time out, finishing third and beaten by less than 1.5 lengths at Carlisle at 10/1 in  a stronger-looking race than this.

He has now dropped to a mark 5lbs lower than his last win and the drop back in trip might just help him to see the job out. He has made the frame on both visits to Catterick in the past and Billy Cuckoo should be there or thereabouts once again today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Regards / Uno Valoroso @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Betbright, SkyBet & Stan James)
Regards / Billy Cuckoo @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Betbright)
Rain Wind And Fire / Uno Valoroso @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Rain Wind And Fire / Billy Cuckoo @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : SkyBet)

Double Dutch, 8th January 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th January 2015

It was another disappointing day yesterday, folks, as we failed to even register a winner.

The nearest we got was Money For Nothing's 2-length defeat to the 33/1 outsider of six runners at Taunton, a result that pretty much sums up the run we're on ie see off the main protagonists and get done by a no-hoper. Our other runner, Pinkneys Prince fell three from home and slightly hampered Money For Nothing, but the latter never really looked like winning.

Then, a little later, both Varsovian and Suitus were poorer than expected/hoped. The former was doing his best work late on, finishing strongly, but hadn't been kept as close to the action as he normally is earlier in the race, whilst the latter was never really involved.

After a couple of days away from DD (but not from work!), I (Chris) am back in the chair once more awaiting an upturn in fortune. We've gone on losing runs in the past and we've had runs of prolonged profitability, so there's no panic here.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Money For Nothing: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Pinkneys Prince: fell at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
------------------------------------------
Varsovian: 4th at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Suitsus: 6th at 7/1 (adv 6/1)

Results to date:
453 winning selections from 1586 = 28.56%
141 winning bets in 411 days = 34.31%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 821.50pts
Returns: 897.42pts

P/L : +75.92pts (+9.24% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

My take on Thursday's action looks like this...

1.40 Catterick:

Where it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect another good run from Cody Wyoming, who is 12122 over fences this winter since joining Charlie Mann. The going conditions and the trip will suit him fine and he's already put in a decent effort here at this track, finishing second over course and distance last time out under today 's jockey (and Geegeez' hero of 2014!) Gavin Sheehan, who has also won on board this horse.

He was only beaten by a length and a half last time out, despite conceding 22lbs to the fancied winner, he now meets today's rivals on a more even footing and there's every chance of another win here at 5/2 BOG.

You could make a case for probably four of his five rivals here, but Russborough and Less Time come off long breaks and might need the run. The former is making his UK chase debut too and could be anything or nothing, whilst Less Time comes from an yard bang out of form at present, although Jonjo did finally land a winner yesterday after 61 consecutive losers over a 7 week run. I'm not quite ready to back his runners just yet!

Then there's Tough Trade, who looks like he's carrying too much weight for a horse that rarely wins or even places and has a habit of falling/unseating his rider. All of which leads us to 4/1 BOG shot Pearls Legend, who despite not winning any of his nine chase starts to date, rarely runs a bad race and is pretty consistent with a run of form reading 332F25342 over fences.

Pearls Legend did win twice over fences, both at today's trip and both ridden by today's jockey. he's also by Midnight Legend, whose offspring tend to go well over fences and although I expect him to be second best again today, he's the most likely back-up to my main pick.

*

2.00 Leicester:

At 11/8 BOG, Boston Blue is a little on the short side, but ideal as the second leg of a double, assuming we get the first one right! He has run twice over hurdles this winter, both here at Leicester, finishing third at the end of November, before romping home by 12 lengths last time out four weeks ago. He's up in weight and up in trip since that last run, but he won so easily and looked to have plenty left in the tank. He has a 4131 record under today's jockey and won't mind the cut in the ground.

If, however, the step up in trip catches him out, I'd expect the 3/1 BOG Stow to be the main beneficiary this afternoon. He was, admittedly, disappointing on New Year's Day (I know the feeling!), but prior to that he'd run a really good effort to finish second over today's course and distance, only headed late on and beatern by a length and a half by the 6/4 fav who was carrying a stone less.

He does carry top weight here today, but Josh Wall's 7lb claim should enable Stow to remain competitive at a track where he runs well (2122 in four starts, all over C&D) and we should also add that the jockey is 4/9 aboard this horse who is already 10/39 over hurdles, so he's no mug!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Cody Wyoming / Boston Blue @ 7.31/1 (5/2 & 11/8 : Coral & Bet365)
Cody Wyoming / Stow @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Coral)
Pearls Legend / Boston Blue @ 10.88/1 (4/1 & 11/8 : BetVictor, Stan James, Boylesports & Bet365)
Pearls Legend / Stow @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 7th October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th October 2014

What started out as a very promising afternoon was once again turned into one of head-shaking frustration as yet again we cam away empty-handed from our doubles, having backed just the one winner.

Things went exactly to plan at Windsor, where Dalgig led Henry The Aviator home in a well strung out field to land a near 13/2 exacta for those doing the exotics and after a slight drift in the market, gave us a nice 2/1 winner for the first half of the double.

So all eyes and hopes were on Pontefract's race 50 minutes later, where Mr McLaren led until the final furlong and yet still found himself finishing 3rd of the 6 runners and the best part of six lengths adrift, which was disappointing, but nowhere near as disappointing as the run from Pigeon Pie, who finished a very remote last of the 6.

Pigeon Pie was beaten by 34 lengths overall and was 25 lengths away from the nearest horse to him, not good at all.

Monday's results were as follows:

Dalgig: won at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Henry The Aviator: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid out at 6.4/1 here.
------------------------------------------
Mr McLaren: u/p at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Pigeon Pie: u/p at 5/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
368 winning selections from 1296 = 28.40%
119 winning bets in 337 days = 35.31%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 673.50pts
Returns: 729.31pts

P/L : +55.81pts (+8.29% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Looking for a change in fortunes on Tuesday with these...

1.50 Brighton:

Koharu won this race last year and also has another course and distance victory to her name, she's actually 112 over C&D and 315142 at the track in general. She's very happy with the undulating nature of the course, which isn't always the case for runners without experience of a previous run here. She's drawn right out in stall 14, but both her C&D wins came from wide draws and she has also won here on good to soft ground.

She has been running well of late, finishing 5th of 12 at Epsom last time out, but only beaten by a length in a tight finish. She was a head and a neck behind 3rd-placed Pharoh Jake in that race and the latter was a winner at Windsor yesterday. This is an easier task today, dropping in class and Koharu looks good for the win at 5/2 BOG.

Saskias Dream is another former course and distance winner and although she hasn't won since that CD win here 13 months ago has been showing significant signs of a return to form helped by a dropping handicap mark.

She's had a bit of a rest of late and is expected to go well fresh today and will be aided by the booking of Richard Hughes again. he has only partnered her in 4 of her previous 43 starts, but they have a record of 3213 together, so he clearly gets a fine tune out of her.

A mark of 59 for a horse that should be fresh to go at a venue where she has one win and one runner-up finish from two races makes Saskias Dream a real contender at 3/1 BOG today.

*

4.00 Catterick:

Eastern Magic was only touched off by a nose at Bath last time out when failing to hold on to a lead in similarly good to soft conditions as today. He's actually up a pound for that run, but a drop back in trip to 2 miles is sure to help see this one out. He is ridden by 5lb claimer Jack Duern again and these two seem to have struck up a good understanding, with 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runs at 1m6.5f and beyond and we know from the horse's prior 2m1f win at Bath that he gets the trip. Eastern Magic is currently very fairly priced at 3/1 BOG...

...as is the big danger, Philosofy, a lightly raced 4yr old making her handicap debut. She will get the trip, despite this being a half-mile step up in trip from her recent efforts over 1m4f, as she actually started her racing career by running two bumpers here at Catterick back in January. She was third on debut behind Zeroeshadesofgrey who won again next time out, as did Philosofy. Those two runs were on soft and then heavy ground so any additional rain will help her cause here.

Since those two bumpers, she has contested three maidens to get her handicap mark, which looks pretty lenient at 50. Those three runs were at Class 5 level over 1m4f and she was outpaced and well beaten. The longer trip up to one she is proven at and a drop down to Class 6, where she's 1 from 1 will make Philosofy a real contender today at 100/30 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Koharu / Philosofy @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Bet365)
Koharu / Eastern Magic @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : generally)
Saskias Dream / Philosofy @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Saskias Dream / Eastern Magic @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : generally)

Double Dutch, 20th September 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th September 2014

Close, but no cigar was the outcome from Friday, I'm afraid. I called the Worcester race spot on by declaring that I expected Marjus Quest to just shade it ahead of Houston Dynimo and he did by just a neck holding on. There was the added bonus of a small 5.85/1 forecast, but the day has to declared a losing one overall.

And that's because, yet again Mfiftythreedotcom found one just too good and had to settle for a two length defeat into second place with Aran Sky a further half length and two places back.

Friday's results were as follows:

Mfiftythreedotcom: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Aran Sky: u/p at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
------------------------------------------
Marjus Quest: won at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Houston Dynimo: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid £6.85 here

Results to date:
353 winning selections from 1242 = 28.42%
116 winning bets in 323 days = 35.91%

Stakes: 647.50pts
Returns: 715.68pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +68.18pts (+10.53% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturday's selections are as follows...

3.15 Ayr:

Kieren Fallon won this race for Saeed bin Suroor aboard Sharestan last year and the team attempt to repeat the feat with Sky Hunter today. The yard has won this race three times in five years, so they clearly target it and with Sky Hunter being their chosen runner, they obviously fancy his chances, despite his UK record not being great so far. He was 4th of 5 in a Group 3 at sandown in April and then 6th of 7 in a Listed race at Newbury three weeks later, But he was only beaten by less than five lengths in a fairly tight finish and has't raced in the four months since then.

He has now been gelded and will wear a hood and if either/both of these spark a return to anything like his French form, then he'll be tough to beat. His record in France read 11131 with the only defeat coming in the Group 1 French Derby, beaten by two lengths by Intello. Sky Hunter rounded off his French runs with a win at Listed Class and if on song can do the same here at 15/8 BOG (PP).

There is, however, a distinct possibility that Sennockian Star could ruin those plans by landing this one today. He hasn't been disgraced in defeat in his last two outings, which were both at this Listed level, but on both occasions he failed to stay the trip. The drop back to 10 furlongs should surely suit him much better. He's a previous course winner and acts on all ground conditions. He has three wins at this trip and goes well in small fields.

Sennockian Star likes to dictate affairs and if allowed an easy lead will prove difficult to overhaul. That could very well be the case and if so, his 100/30 BOG odds will look very attractive.

*

6.10 Catterick:

BetVictor are offering 5/2 BOG about Running Reef here and that looks a tad generous to me. He was an easy 5 lengths winner on Monday up at Musselburgh and although he's penalised 6lbs for that win, firstly I don't think that's enough to stop and secondly he was set to be dropped 2lbs on Tuesday anyway, so his penalty for a runaway victory is effectively just 4lbs. He's a former course and distance winner and providing Monday didn't take too much out of him (and it didn't seem to!), then I fancy him to go in again.

Of the rest, I'd have to go with Showtime Star, who does at least have a modicum of decent recent form unlike many of his rivals.He has one win and two runner-up finishes to his name from his last five contests and won at Hamilton last time out. He's drawn alongside Running Reef and they might just tow each other along for a 1-2 finish (I hope so!).

He gets 7f well enough, has been a runner-up twice from three starts here at Catterick. With just seven runs to his name, he's neither exposed nor fully developed and should still have some progression to make and at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor looks an appealing Plan B.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Sky Hunter / Running Reef @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Sky Hunter / Showtime Star @ 14.13/1 (7/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor)
Sennockian Star / Running Reef @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Sennockian Star / Showtime Star @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 27th August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th August 2014

More crossbar rattling yesterday, I'm afraid as Mighty Missile's half-length defeat to top weighted Kodicil was the difference between success and failure for us, meaning that Echo Brava's good win at Wolverhampton counted for nothing but my pride.

At the other extreme, the other two runners we selected ran poorly and both were last home in their respective races.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Mighty Missile: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 15/8)
Annes Valentino: u/p at 11/2 (adv 4/1)
------------------------------------------
Echo Brava: won at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Dino Mite: u/p at 7/2 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
332 winning selections from 1162 = 28.57%
109 winning bets in 303 days = 35.97%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 606.00pts
Returns: 676.19pts

P/L : +70.19pts (+11.58% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm still not quite off the cold list, but I feel we're getting pretty close, could these get me back on the winning way?

2.10 Catterick:

Where the withdrawal of Burning The Clocks should make this a two-horse race between 7/4 BOG Wiseton and 9/4 BOG You're My Cracker.

You're My Cracker hasn't finished out of the first three home in any of her five starts to date despite failing to win (33222) and this must represent her best/easiest chance of breaking her duck. Her better efforts have come on turf, so it's good to see her back on grass today and I'd expect her to be better dropping back tot he bare minimum 5f trip and failing to last home over 6f at Carlisle a month ago. She was caught on the line that day and a repeat of that effort could well be good enough at the shorter trip.

Wiseton showed great improvement last time out on only second start, finishing second at Thirsk and only headed late on. Further improvement is expected from this one, as many of the Nicholls' sprinters do. He still showed some signs of greenness, but there were some promising signs at Thirsk and if You're My Cracker fails to deliver again, he's the most likely beneficiary in my eyes.

*

2.50 Lingfield:

Lady Zodiac has been knocking on the door of late, with three consecutive runner-up finishes in the last six weeks. Each of those three runs have been better than the previous outing and any further progression should be enough for her to finally break her maiden tag. Mind you, a repeat of her run at Brighton eight days ago should/could be enough as there was no disgrace in getting caught on the the final stride that day. She runs off the same mark again today and looks a decent proposition at up to 3/1 BOG, providing none of her rivals have improved massively from their last outings.

One who could/should cause a problem, though, is 9/4 BOG favourite Barchan. Although a form line of 857 in three maidens is no great shakes, his trainer Charlie Appleby switches him to the A/W for his handicap debut, a tactic the yard generally employs to good effect. His opening mark doesn't look too punitive and in Cameron Hardie, they have a decent jockey with the added bonus of a 5lb claim. On pure form, he has something to find, but he's not here to make up the numbers and I fancy him to chase the Lady home.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Wiseton/ Barchan @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Wiseton / Lady Zodiac @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Boylesports & Hills)
You're My Cracker / Barchan @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4  : Stan James)
You're My Cracker / Lady Zodiac @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 15th August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th August 2014

Thursday was another winning day for us here at the Double Dutch, although our overall payout was decimated by a 25p Rule 4 deduction in race 1.

That was because my second runner, Outback Traveller became a non-runner in the afternoon and although it technically increased the chance of my first pick winning, it brought the odds down from our advised 9/4 to 1.69/1. Mind you, that was better than the 5/6 SP he eventually won at!

This meant that we had 2 x 0.5pt singles on the two runners in race 2 in addition to the winnings from Glorious Empire. And as I rather hoped she would, our 2/1 shot Strictly Glitz did the business for us for the second time in four days. All told, it amounted to a 7.06/1 double and an extra pt from the single.

It's not exactly retirement money, but it's another step forwards and those of you doing the DD/SotD treble were rewarded with a 55/1 payout after a 6/1 winner at Chepstow.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Glorious Empire: won at 5/6 (adv 1.69/1 after 25p R4)
Outback Traveller: non-runner (adv 5/2)
------------------------------------------
Strictly Glitz: won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Shimba Hills: u/p at 7/2 (adv 5/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
322 winning selections from 1122 = 28.70%
107 winning bets in 293 days = 36.52%

Stakes: 588.00pts
Returns: 665.86pts

P/L : +77.86pts (+13.24% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Friday's selections are as follows...

4.20 Nottingham:

The defection of Hot Coffee would appear to have left this as a two-horse contest between Cay Dancer and Scallop. Scallop was very impressive when landing her maiden victory at the second attempt seven weeks ago. She won by the best part of five lengths whilst easing down at Carlisle on decent ground and with the runner-up winning by a similar margin next time out, the omens are good for Scallop again today.

As a daughter of Yorkshire Oaks winner (and St.Leger runner-up) Quiff, she's not only bred to stay further than this 1m2f, but she's also expected to be far better than the mark 0f 84 allotted to her for her handicap debut today. This means she could well have a fair bit in hand, making her current 7/4 BOG odds look fairly generous come race time.

Cay Dancer has been far busier so far, having already run 10 races and with a record of 154131 is in good form this season. She stayed on well to score over today's trip at Newbury four weeks ago and although she now carries a penalty for that win, the booking of 5lb claimer Cam Hardie will offset the rise in weight. On paper, her 0.75 lengths victory over the re-opposing Miss Lucy Jane might not seem convincing, but she actually seemed to have plenty in reserve if needed and if Scallop doesn't quite fire today, she'll be an ideal backup plan at 100/30 BOG.

*

6.40 Catterick:

Kayo Koko stayed on well to win by two lengths over course and distance on her debut run just over three weeks ago and I fancy her to repeat that feat here this evening. A couple of those in behind her that time have gone on to run well and be placed again since. She's expected to improve further in handicap company, where her opening mark of 75 seems more than fair. This doesn't look that tough a race for a Class 4 event and her 7/2 BOG price might well represent a touch of value here.

If we're taking her improvement on trust, the same can't be said for Izzthatright, who has run into form for new trainer Richard Fahey. Finishes of 442 in two maidens and then a seller under the trainership of Nigel Tinkler was followed by a move to the Fahey yard in the middle of June. He then duly won over course and distance here at Catterick on both his yard and his handicap debut and has since followed that up with a decent runner-up performance at Chester, where he was only headed late on and beaten by just a half length.

It's highly possible that the softer ground took its toll that day at the quirky Roodee and on better ground at a more straightforward track, he should be more suited. He runs off the same mark of 78 as that run at Chester (due to go up another 4lbs), but jockey Jack Garrity claims 5lbs here, which could just tip things in his favour for a win at BetVictor's 85/40 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Scallop / Izzthatright @ 7.59/1 (7/4 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Scallop / Kayo Koko @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2  : BetVictor)
Cay Dancer / Izzthatright @ 11.50/1 (3/1 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Cay Dancer / Kayo Koko @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : BetFred)

Double Dutch, 2nd July 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 2nd July 2014

We didn't get the best of starts to July yesterday, I'm afraid. I did manage to get my selections finishing one behind the other in the suggested order in both races, but that was as good as it got, as I failed to find the winner of either race.

We went down by a neck in race 1 and by a length and a quarter some 20 minutes later, making for a bad day at the office.

Monday's results were as follows:

Red Rocks Point: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Chance To Dance: 3rd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
---------------------------------
Silverrica: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Shilla: 4th at 7/4 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
275 winning selections from 985 = 27.92%
88 winning bets in 256 days = 34.38%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 512.00pts
Returns: 558.34pts

P/L : +46.34pts (+9.05% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm looking for a swift return to winning form with these today...

4.30 Catterick:

It's fair to say that Dr Irv hasn't lived up to last year's form and the same can be said about his trainer Philip Kirby, but this race looks the ideal opportunity for both to get back to winning ways. It was around this time last year that this horse won three out of four races, including one over today's course and distance. Two of those wins were at Class 4 level and his recent indifferent form could be purely because he's not good enough to win at Class 3! Coming down to Class 5 represents a major drop in expectations and could just be what he needs to clock up a fourth win in eight efforts at this trip. You can currently get 15/8 BOG about him doing just that.

He won't have it all his own way though, for Hot Spice will be doing his level best to defy a 7lb hike in weight. There might be some concerns about this being his first attempt at the 2m trip, but he stepped up to 1m6f for the first time at Redcar 11 days ago and won as comfortably/easily as one could have wished for. The official margin of victory was just 3.75 lengths, but he controlled the race, leading with over a mile to run and seemed to be doing just enough and holding plenty back.

If he runs like that again today, then the extra 2f won't trouble him at all and we could have a contest on our hands, especially if old form is to be trusted. He was third last summer in a higher grade than this and off a mark 2lbs higher than today, so there's every chance of him stepping up again to land this at 5/2 BOG.

*

4.40 Perth:

Tiradia continues to climb the weights, but his form over the past year or so is not only consistent, but easily the best on offer here today. Finishes of 332212 in his last six outings clearly set the standard here. he's had a short break of 8 weeks since last running into second place at Market Rasen, where his rivals from that day have gone on to run well since, clocking up 2 wins and 6 places from 10 efforts. He was beaten by the progressive Gold Futures that day and the latter has since stepped up to Class 3 and won again. Tiradia meets nothing of that calibre today and should take this at a generally available 15/8 BOG.

I'd expect Super Collider to be the biggest danger if this latest 4lb rise proves too much for our main selection. Super Collider has been running well of late, finishing second in each of his last two races. He was only beaten inside the final 100 yards at Carlisle in April (this race is a half furlong shorter than that), before finding the soft ground too difficult at Hexham last time out. He's on his preferred better ground today and will be buoyed by Bell Weir's win at Hexham a fortnight ago, having finished a length ahead of him previously. We can currently get 7/2 BOG about Super Collider.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

Dr Irv / Tiradia @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Dr Irv / Super Collider @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetVictor, SkyBet & PP)
Hot Spice / Tiradia @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Hot Spice / Super Collider @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : generally available)

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2014

Strike A Light was a 7/2 winner yesterday, the very same price as we'd advised. The 3yr old grey filly was kept in a handy position until hitting the front with a furlong to go. Despite looking like she was carrying her head a bit strangely, she warmed to the task, stayed on and won by a neck, doing just enough and with probably a bit held back if needed.

She was a horse you couldn't back purely on her past form/performances, and that's where the stats come in, as trainers are creatures of habit who stick to methods that serve them well. More of the same hopefully today in a competitive-looking...

2.50 Catterick:

Where there are some similarities to yesterday's selection and reasoning.

The trainer in focus today is Philip Kirby who, like Rae Guest yesterday, has been very profitable to follow in recent times.

In fact had you backed every single one of Philip's 275 handicap entrants on the Flat in the last four years, you have collected from the bookies on 45 occasions, with that 16.4% strike rate netting you a cool 90.8pts profit to 1pt level stakes bets, an ROI of a shade over 33%.

It isn't however, really that viable to back Mr Kirby's runners when the money is down for them and if we discarded the 23 runners priced below 5/2 (not that we'd generally back them for SotD anyway!), we would admittedly lose 7 winners and reduce our strike rate down to 15.1% (38 winners from 252), but the overall profits rise to 95.8pts, or 38% of stakes. And that to me, is a wise move.

Those figures obviously include all runners priced at 5/2 and above and we therefore need to check the numbers aren't skewed by a big winner or two, but I've had a look at the rae data and it tells me that his runners are profitable in a whole range of odds brackets, as I'll show you now...

5/2 to 20/1 : 38/207 = 18.4% SR for 140.7pts (+68% ROI) profit
5/2 to 12/1 : 32/157 = 20.4% SR for 77.3pts (+49.3% ROI) profit
5/2 to 8/1 : 26/103 = 25.2% SR for 61.0pts (+59.2% ROI) profit

Incidentally over 52% of the lower bracket horses were placed, opening up the possibility of an E/W bet, should we need/want one.

Mr.Kirby's runner in this contest today is Just Paul and like yesterday's selection, he is the trainer's only runner of the day. Philip Kirby is also one of those trainers with a very good record on those occasions when he has just one horse to run, with 21 winners from 77 ( 27.3% SR) over the lat four years generating 103.5pts (+134.5% ROI) profits.

We can drill down further into these solo runners and find that those sent off at odds of 7/2 to 20/1 won 17 of 51 races, a 1-in-3 record producing excellent profits of 119.4pts or 234.1% of stakes invested, whilst those priced between 7/2 & 10/1 were the winners of 13 races from 32 (40.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 57.6pts (+180% ROI).

Just Paul comes here in good nick, having won last time out at Musselburgh three weeks ago. That was at this same Class 3 level and over today's 7f trip on similarly good to soft ground as he'll encounter today. Prior to that, he was 3rd at Redcar (5 weeks ago now) on his seasonal reappearance after a 23 week absence. He was only beaten by two necks over a mile that day.

He has a course and distance win to his name already and his overall record is decent, with 6 wins from 18 so far and a 50% place strike rate. All six of his wins to date have come from his 12 attempts at today's 7f trip and he's two from two on good to soft.

If his 6/18 record wasn't good enough, then we should note that he was 0/5 before switching to Philip Kirby's yard and I fancy him to go well again today, despite a 5lb rise in the weights.

When I wrote this, not all the firms had priced the race up, but from those who had, I saw there was just about enough juice in a safety-first approach, so the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Just Paul at 13/2 BOG. That price is currently offered by PP & BetVictor, so take your pick! The other eight firms with a book open were at least half a point shorter at the time of press (just before 1am!), as you'll no doubt see when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 5th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th March 2014

After a string of near-misses where we kept finding just the one winner, we had a much better day yesterday. Rhymers Stone was backed in from our advised 5/2 and was sent off at 15/8 and the market was proved right, as he stayed on well to win by half a length, taking his record on soft ground to 3 wins from 4.

Race 2 was a strange, but satisfactory affair though.On the turn for home, the eventual winner Rugged Jack was way off the pace in last of the 5 still running and at least 25 lengths behind the leader, whilst Revaader was the only horse not being driven. As they approached the 3rd from home, Revaader was travelling really well and looked a shoo-in to finally break her duck at the 17th attempt.

She was a good six or seven lengths clear and coasting, but her front legs buckled under her on landing and the race was gone. Rugged jack, meanwhile found something from nowhere and outstayed the others to get home by two lengths. The icing on the cake was a drift from our 9/4 price out to 11/4, making for a nice 12.13/1 double.

The cherry on the icing on the cake was Stat of the Day's earlier 6/1 winner (reduced to 5.4/1 after Rule 4) and I mention this, because I know that many of you like to do the treble and yesterday's was settled at a very attractive 83/1 and SotD also highlighted another 4/1 BOG winner to boot.

SotD is just one of many features available to Geegeez Gold Members and access to this section is just 40p per day, cheaper and much more informative than a daily newspaper. Click here for more details.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Tuesday's DD results were as follows:

Rhymers Stone: won at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Light The City: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
---------------------------------
Rugged Jack: won at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Revaader: fell at 11/10 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
169 winning selections from 598 = 28.26%
56 winning bets in 158 days = 35.44%

Stakes: 312.00pts
Returns: 354.19pts

P/L : +42.19pts (+13.52% ROI)

We're back above he 40pt barrier again and I hope to climb towards 50pts with these two chases in North Yorkshire:

2.45 Catterick:

Tiny Dancer is the current 15/8 BOG favourite with Stan James to land this contest and it's not hard to see why. He was last seen three weeks ago putting himself 24 lengths ahead of his nearest rival at Ayr and although this is another half mile further, he has already demonstrated that he stays this far by finishing second at Carlisle over this trip on his penultimate outing. His jumping was admittedly, a little sketchy that day, but it was his first effort over fences and he's entitled to come on for the experience.

If his jumping lets him down today, though, I'd expect Harris to be the one to take advantage. This one is coming into some decent form and won a hurdles race over today's track and trip a week before Christmas, before making his chase debut here over course and distance just over three weeks ago. he was fairly well beaten (22 lengths) that day, but stayed on well to hold on to second place with the winner Pinerolo going on to win again next time out at a higher level (Class 2).

He's another whose jumping is expected to improve for the benefit of a second crack at fences and prior course experience might be telling factor here today and Harris can be backed at 9/4 BOG with Boylesports.

*

4.15 Catterick:

Dark And Dangerous is an interesting entrant here, running in a handicap chase for the first time (but not his first effort over fences) and despite going off the boil in five hurdles races since finishing 1st and then 2nd ten months ago, could well have found a way back to form. He ran second at Newton Abbot last May off a mark of 119 on the back of a Ffos Las win off 115, but is rated at just 105 here today, some 23lbs lower than when contesting the Fred Winter almost two years ago. The fact he was even there shows there's ability about him and at 11/4 BOG, he's probably one of the better options in what looks a pretty poor contest.

The best recent form, however, comes from Endeavor, who would be my fancy here at 5/2 BOG. He has won 10 races to date, which is more than his four rivals have done between them and was a very creditable fourth at Musselburgh last time out. He was beaten by less than 9 lengths in total that day 3 weeks ago despite weakening late on. The drop back by 4 furlongs should help a horse who has already won here at Catterick albeit over hurdles and his best form comes at these shorter trips on good to soft ground, so conditions should be ideal for him here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Tiny Dancer / Endeavor @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Tiny Dancer / Dark And Dangerous @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Harris / Endeavor @  9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : generally)
Harris / Dark And Dangerous @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)