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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday August 30

CATTERICK - AUGUST 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Cool Strike) & 4 (The Auld Hoose)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Nuns Walk), 4 (La Sioux), 3 (Fairy Lights) & 2 (Eponina)

Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Bulas Belle), 3 (Italian Riviera) & 2 (Ingleby Hollow)

Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Magical Effect), 3 (Shouranour) & 8 (Tadaawol)

Leg 5 (3.50): 1 (Salvatore Fury), 3 (Searanger) & 6 (Melaniemillie)

Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (State Residence) & 1 (Willbeme)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Any trainer who can record a 28.2% strike via 71 juvenile runners during a five year period is worth his weight in gold in the two-year-old sector, with Richard Fahey able to boast that claim at Catterick in recent times.  Richard saddles THE AULD HOOSE on this occasion, though the Zebedee colt will probably have to play second fiddle (at best) with COOL SPIRIT having been declared to run by James Given after a couple of half decent efforts in (seemingly) better company than the Swiss Spirit colt faces here.  That said, anyone backing the 2/5 favourite might need his/her ‘bumps felt’ as my old nan used to say because until a horse has actually won, I would never entertain an odds on quote, let alone one as short as this. 2/5 represents a 71.4% probability factor in percentage terms so unless you believe that the February foal has at least a 72% chance of scoring, you should leave well alone. That’s the numbers dealt with as such, the rest is up to you.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/5 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.20: Before jumping on the Roger Varian bandwagon, it’s worth noting that the trainer has ‘only’ won with one of his five three-year-old runners at Catterick during the last five years.  That is not a slur on Roger’s ability as regular readers will testify, it’s just that we need to explore the avenues open to us before we simply wade in believing a Newmarket visitor simply has to turn up to snare the swag.  Truth is that this race has dissolved to down to a win only affair and with nothing much between the quartet from my viewpoint, the answer (from a Placepot perspective at least) is to simply include all four runners before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least number of Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/9 market leader obliged, giving punters a near 5/2 double on the opening two races on the card.  How will the relevant favourites run this time around, if a clear market leader can be found in this contest?

 

2.50: Nine of the 12 winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7 whereby BULAS BELLE and ITALIAIN RIVIERA should claim a toteplacepot position or two between them, the duo being listed in marginal order of preference.  This is not a race demanding too much of our time because it rather resembles a graded greyhound event whereby sometimes it seems the outcome is defined by whose turn is it to win on this occasion.  David O’Meara’s horse are running better now whereby for the first time this season, I would also offer a tentative chance to INGLEBY HOLLOW.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time, a top priced winner of 6/1 having emerged.  Seven of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

2/6—Bulas Belle (good to soft & soft)

1/2—Italian Riviera (soft)

1/6—Cavalieri (good)

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3.20: The ‘make up’ of this event has changed (see favourite factor below) though the inclusion of three course winners under much softer conditions still makes the contest difficult to call. MAGICAL EFFECT is the horse for money this morning, though bits and pieces of win and place support for SHOURANOUR is emerging at the time of writing, presumably because one of his six victories to date was (at least) gained on fast ground, albeit the other five successes were registered of good to soft/soft going.  TADAAWOL has also run well enough under today’s projected conditions, despite the fact that his course and distance success three week ago was recorded on soft going.

Favourite factor: Punters had gone through a lean period when this race was confined to three-year-olds in the past whereby the inclusion of older contenders (creating a ‘new race’ as such) might offer investors a better chance of success.  We shall see.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

2/3—Shouranour (2 x soft)

1/1—Jacquard (good to firm)

1/2—Johnny Cavagin (soft)

1/3—Tadaawol (soft)

2/3—Bahamian Bird (2 x good to firm)

 

3.50: I made the point on my Twitter page yesterday that Ladbrokes were out on a limb about a horse which although beaten yesterday was backed down at all rates making the relevant wager ‘ a bet to nothing’ via the exchanges.  The same scenario is surely in place here with the magic sign chalking up odds of 11/2 about SALVATORE FURY from the top of the handicap.  As short as 7/2 in a place, I expect the SP to be 4/1 (thereabouts) unless non-runners ruin the market of course (UPDATE: SF is on the drift at 8.30 this morning).  Either way, supporters of the Keith Dalglish raider will surely get a decent run for their investments, possibly having most to fear from the likes of SEARANGER and MEANIEMILLIE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have missed out on Placepot positions thus far.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Salvatore Fury (good)

1/6—Indian Pursuit (soft)

2/5—Seamanger (2 x good to firm)

1/5—Melaniemillie (soft)

1/9—Debden (good)

 

4.20: The second heat of the previous contest rests between STATE RESIEDENCE and WILLBEME from my perspective, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  There has been plenty of overnight money for the first named David O’Meara representative whilst WILLBEME has slipped down to a favourable mark which three pound claimer Clifford Lee extends.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, where the same stats apply.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Spirit Of Zebedee (good to firm)

2/14—Bold Spirit (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—David O’Meara (3/24 – loss of 15 points)

4—Ruth Carr (8/28 +14)

4—Scott Dixon (1/19 – loss of 15/1)

4—Tim Easterby (3/23 – loss of 3 points)

3—Tony Coyle (0/3)

3—Richard Fahey (5/32 – loss of 2 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/21 +11)

3—John Quinn (2/30 – loss of 24 points)

2—Robert Cowell (0/4)

2—Roger Fell (2/12 – slight loss)

2—Rebecca Menzies (3/18 +15)

2—Paul Midgley (1/10 – loss of 7 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (4/14 +11)

2—Brain Smart (0/5)

2—Ronald Thompson (No previous runners)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £360.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £426.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £30.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot pointers – Friday 18th August

NEWBURY - AUGUST 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £117.50 (6 favourites - 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (Merlin Magic) & 1 (Ateem)

Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Jawwaal) & 7 (Qaroun)

Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Kingston Kurrajong), 9 (Pursuing Steed), 10 (Dragons Voice) & 13 (Mr Tyrell)

Leg 4 (3.10): 2 (Machine Learner) & 7 (Great Sound)

Leg 5 (3.45): 9 (Out Of The Flames), 11 (Sankari Royale) & 6 (Misty Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.20): 3 (Storm Over) & 7 (Madame Bounty)

Suggested stake: 192 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eight renewals of this event and ATEEM is preferred to Robinson Crusoe of the relevant two raiders on this occasion.  Richard’s Dark Angel representative will not mind any rain that creeps down the M4 corridor this morning as I can report that there are some lively showers hitting Bristol towards dawn.  That said, MERLIN MAGIC should take the beating after a highly promising effort at Ascot on her first day at school.  There is every chance that Jeff Smith’s famous purple and light blue silks will be seen in the area reserved for winners later today.  BLUE LAUREATE is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.  It could a decent newcomer to land the spoils in this company.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include eight winners.  Market leaders come to the gig on a six timer.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-12-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

9-8-3 (10 ran (soft)

3-4-7 (13 ran-soft)

4-11-5 (11 ran-good)

11-10-7 (12 ran-good)

13-2-12 (11 ran-good)

1-4-9 (13 ran-good)

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

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7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

 

2.10: Richard Hannon’s juveniles look set to take a back seat in what is another decent looking contest on the eight race Newbury card.  JAWWAAL and QAROUN look set to lock horns here at the business end of the contest and if there is a clear cut winner between them today, that individual could well be worth following for some time to come.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply; 11 of the 14 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include eight winners.  Market leaders come to the gig on a six timer.

 

2.40: I nominated last year’s 10/1 winner (Wind In My Sails) as the each way interest in the contest and that ‘honour’ is bestowed upon KINGSTON KURRAJONG on this occasion.  Michael Attwater’s Authorized gelding is invariably in and around the action at the furlong pole and Kieren Fox’s mount deserves to get his head in front where it matters most after a string of consistent efforts. Four-year-olds have won both renewals, whilst horses carrying 9-2 or more have secured five of the six available Placepot positions thus far.  ‘KK’ qualifies on both fronts, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of PURSUING STEED, DRAGONS VOICE and MR TYRELL this time around.

Favourite factor: All three favourites (via just the two renewals0 have finished out with the washing thus far.

Course winners in the third event:

1/6—Directorship (good)

1/2—Harlequin Striker (soft)

1/8—Cricklewood Green (good)

1/1—Pursuing Steed (good to firm)

 

3.10: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record six victories during the last 15 years. That said, four-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests whereby MACHINE LEARNER is the call with Ryan Moore booked to ride.  Junior raiders to consider are GREAT SOUND and COMRADE CONRAD, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last 18 years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst eight of the 18 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Poyle Thomas (good)

 

3.45: David Elsworth has a good chance on the card with Merlin Magic as already offered, whilst I would not be too quick to rule a line through his 25/1 chance MISTY SPIRIT either.  David’s recent Leicester winner looks a progressive type who could make nonsense of his odds given luck in running.  That said, Ryan Moore has plenty of decent chances at the meeting today, with OUT OF THE FLAMES being one of many with gold medal claims.  My trio against the field is completed by SANKARI ROYALE who has claims having beaten one of the also-rans in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot earlier this year.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ONE MINUTE.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, with eleven of the market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last seventeen renewals.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-5 (9 ran-soft)

6-4-5 (8 ran-good)

5-3-6 (10 ran-good)

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

 

4.20: Whilst admitting that I would like the ‘dead eight’ field to remain intact from a confidence viewpoint, the likes of STORM OVER and MADAME BOUNTY really should secure the Placepot dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far, without winning the relevant contest last year.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Madame Bounty (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Newbury card on Friday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:

3 winners—Andrew Balding (3/1*, 9/4* & 2/5*) – 2 runners today

3 winners—Luca Cumani (7/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 2 runners today

3 winners—Richard Hannon (11/4*, 11/4* & 6/4*) – 9 runners today

2 winners—William Haggas (5/1 & 11/10*) – 6 runners today

2 winners—Jonathan Portman (12/1 & 5/2*) – 1 runner today

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £65.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newmarket: £147.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Nottingham: £344.30 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: There is no history relating to to this meeting

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.00 Yarmouth - Whosyourhousemate @ 7/2 BOG - 4th at 11/4 : Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, no extra final 100 yards...

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 5 handicap over 1m4f on Good to Soft ground for 3yo+ horses ridden by amateur riders, so possibly not the best race you'll see today, but there are reasons to side with a 6 yr old gelding who has already won over course and distance in the past, so let's have a look...

Firstly, his trainer Mick Appleby is 14/86 (16.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+30.3% ROI) profit at this North Yorkshire track over the last five seasons, including...

  • at this 1m4f C&D : 7/27 (25.9%) for 42.5pts (+157.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/27 (18.5%) for 23.6pts (+87.3%)
  • and at Class 5 over this 1m4f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.25pts (+378.2%)

Sellingallthetime now drops down a grade to run in this contest and since 2011, Mick Appleby's Class 5 Flat handicappers dropping down from Class 4 are 15/88 (17.1% SR) for 66.9pts (+76% ROI), which include...

  • males at 11/58 (19%) for 73.5ts (+126.7%)
  • those running after a short break of 11-30 days are 8/49 (16.3%) for 53.8pts (+109.7%)
  • and males who last ran 11-30 days ago are 5/25 (20%) for 58.9pts (+235.6%)

And as this is an amateur riders' handicap, jockey bookings are very important as some amateurs are clearly far better than others and if push comes to shove in a tight finish, you know the jockey can make all the difference.

This is why I'm happy to see Serena Brotherton's name next to our pick, as she's actually profitable to back blindly in handicaps! Since 2008, she has 80 winners from 440 (18.2% SR) for 147.7pts (+33.6% ROI) profit, which are excellent numbers and in the terms of today's contest, those figures relate to...

  • her only ride of the day : 74/392 (18.9%) for 165.7pts (+42.3%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 72/385 (18.7%) for 107pts (+27.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 29/143 (20.3%) for 77.4pts (+54.2%)
  • this year alone : 5/31 (16.1%) for 45.1pts (+145.5%)
  • and here at Catterick, she is 3 from 12 (25%) for 2.75pts (+22.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Betfred, Marathon and Totesport at 9.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 8th August

CATTERICK - AUGUST 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £600.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Amazing Rock) & 8 (Shrewd Approach)

Leg 2 (2.45): 9 (Lady Joanna Vassa), 8 (Your Gifted) & 7 (Sir Geoffrey)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Pumblechook), 3 (Tenzing Norgay) & 1 (Be Perfect)

Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Rose Eclair), 4 (Bay Station) & 2 (Lucky Lodge)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Tadaany), 1 (Mywayistheonlyway) & 8 (Tadaawol)

Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Bodacious Name) & 4 (Desktop)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: It comes as no surprise that Mark Johnston has waited until the seven furlong juvenile season has started before introducing his Rock Of Gibraltar colt AMAZING ROCK, who also had what looked to be a tougher assignment on his schedule at Haydock on Friday.  Simon Crisford secured an 80/1 success at Windsor last night, though his experienced youngster SHREWD APPROACH might only be on offer at 2/1 if AMAZING ROCK does not impress paddock watchers this afternoon.

Favourite factor: I’m including the old (pre novice) stats here for the last time if you want to record such details.  All 14 winners in recent times have been returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which included seven successful market leaders.  Six of the last eight favourites have obliged.  Ten of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions though that said, the only favourites to miss out were returned at 4/11 & 4/5!

 

2.45: Eleven of the last thirteen gold medallists were burdened with 9-3 or less, stats which eliminates only two of the top five horses because of the claiming pilots involved, which keep three of the original top weights in the mix. The merits of ten runners are left to peruse, which is a difficult task, ‘the pin’ dropping on the likes of LADY JOANNA VASSA (four-year-olds have won the last three renewals), YOUR GIFTED and SIR GEOFFREY this time around.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven contests has gone the way of the favourite whilst five winners have been returned in double figures (ranging from 11/1 to 33/1) during the period.  Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

 

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3.15: A respectful mention of the name of the late and much respected trainer Alan Swinbank who had saddled the winners of three of the last eleven winners of this event.  The sport cannot afford to lose trainers of Alan’s stature in the game.  Upwards and onward by informing that this is one the best races for favourites during Catterick’s entire year whereby the chances of PUMBLECHOOK and TENZING NORGAY are much respected as this pair are expected to head the market, for openers at least.  Money for BE PERFECT would add interest to proceedings.  More rain would have to fall for BULAS BELLE to score, though that scenario cannot be entirely ruled out given the weather this ‘summer’.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last eleven renewals whilst the other events were secured by horses sent off at 7/2 and 11/4, given that the 2015 (9/4) market leader was withdrawn before there was any time for a new market to be formed.

 

3.45: 11 of the last 13 winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which go against seven of the twelve entries, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be ROSE ÉCLAIR, BAY STATION and LUCKY LODGE.  Rachel Richardson (rides Rose Éclair in this event - secured a 152/1 double yesterday) has been in fine form of late (as has trainer Tim Easterby) and there are not many better three pound claimers in the land right now.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, MELANIEMILLIE might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have secured seven of the last thirteen contests during the last fourteen years, the other winners being sent off at just 2/1-4/1-9/2-5/1-13/2-9/1.  12 of the 14 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, the odd one out being one of the two 5/2 joint favourites back in 2007 and last year’s 6/4 favourite which finished third in a ‘win only’ contest. The trade press have this down as a new race which does not concur with the BHA.

 

4.15: Ten of the twelve winners during the study period carried weights of 9-5 or more which brings in the likes of MYWAYISTHEONLYWAY and TADAANY.  The 12/1 trade press quote about the latter named David O’Meara representative look fanciful in the extreme, with potential investors possibly having to look at half of that price before making a decision to back David’s Acclamation gelding.  The other possibly winner in the field according to the gospel of your truly is TADAAWOL, though Roger Fell’s raider is fully five pound below the ‘superior’ weight according to recent trends.

Favourite factor: In contrast to the other races featured in Tuesday’s Placepot mix, favourites have a poor record as 12 renewals have been contested during the last 14 years during which time, successful market leaders were only conspicuous by their absence.  That said, seven of the last eleven favourites have (at least) finished in the frame.

 

4.45: Regular readers will know that staying events on the flat are my least favourite races, purely because speed (the fundamental requirement of a thoroughbred) is only conspicuous by its absence in general terms.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that BODACIOUS NAME surely only needs to reproduce the form shown when winning last time out at Nottingham to reach the frame at the very least, whilst DESKTOP is nominated as the alternative each way call if the brief ’favourite factor’ stats below put the fear of Matt Chapman into you!

Favourite factor: This mixed vintage two mile contest was a new race on the Catterick card two years ago when the 2/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the 'dead eight' frame at 12/1-7/2-7/2.   Worse was to follow twelve months on when the contest was won by a 66/1 chance with detectives still searching the area for the 11/10 market leader (last of 12 – beaten 110 lengths).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Ruth Carr (7/22 – Profit of 15 points)

5—David O’Meara (3/17 – loss of 8 points)

3—Anthony Brittain (0/10)

3—Scott Dixon (1/14 – loss of 10 points)

3—Grant Tuer (0/1)

3—Tracey Waggott (0/6)

2—Eric Alston (1/4 – loss of 3 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/4 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Mick Easterby (2/14 – loss of 5 points)

2—Tim Easterby (2/20 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/8)

2—Patrick Holmes (0/8)

2—John Holt (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Mark Johnston (6/18 – Profit of 10 points)

2—John Quinn (2/25 – loss of 19 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (4/12 – Profit of 6 points)

2—John Weymes (0/5)

2—Lisa Williamson (0/3)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Leicester: This is a new fixture on the calendar

Nottingham: £63.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £348.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 26

SANDOWN - JULY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £282.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown : 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Pack It In), 7 (Sir Jack) & 6 (Jack Of Diamonds)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Itsakindamagic) & 6 (Almorab)

Leg 3 (7.10): 7 (Red Mist), 4 (Bold Reason) & 8 (Sam Gold)

Leg 4 (7.40): 5 (Sultan Baybars) & 6 (Fox Trotter)

Leg 5 (8.10): 7 (Taper Tantrum), 3 (Clowance One) & 5 (West Drive)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Alsvinder), 3 (Francisco) & 5 (Stoneyford Lane)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five year study of this corresponding meeting:

30 races – 9 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend on the Wednesday of the two day fixture: £162.78

Best trainer stats during the two days of the fixture with runners on Wednesday:

7 winners--Andrew Balding (9/1, 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 2 runners: Breakheart (6.00) & Itsakindamagic (6.30)

3 winners—Michael Bell (11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*) – 1 runner: Taper Tantrum (8.10)

Footnote: Watch out for Andrew’s runners on Thursday as five of his seven winners over the course of the two days came on day two of the meeting.

Sir Michael Stoute (not represented on Wednesday) has saddled six winners down the years, four of which secured on the Thursday – all details will be featured in Thursday’s service.

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

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6.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals which brings in the likes of PACK IT IN, SIR JACK and ARCHIMENTO into the mix, with vintage representatives on offer at 9/4 to improve the recent ratio before the form book is consulted.  The trio is listed in order of preference.  That said, JACK OF DIAMONDS might be worth a small bet if you are looking for a more speculative punt, especially as Roger Teal has saddled his last two runners to winning effect at 25/1 & 20/1.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far via eight renewals, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/8—Jack Of Diamonds (good)

1/3—Breakheart (good to firm)

 

6.35: Three-year-olds have secured seven of the last ten renewals of this event, with four of the nine runners hailing from the vintage this time around.  It only took two relevant raider to win the race between them twelve months ago, whereby there is plenty of confidence in landing the spoils on this occasion.  ITSAKINDAMAGIC represents Andrew Balding who has dominated this meeting in recent seasons and with more rain expected to fall this morning/afternoon leading up to tonight’s meeting, Andrew’s Mount Nelson colt demands plenty of respect.  ALMORAB has won under todays projected conditions (could be soft by flag fall), with Richard Hannon’s raider preferred to Testbourne as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the eleven renewals to date, with seven of the thirteen market leaders having finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second contest:

1/5—Mister Music (good)

 

7.10: Market leaders have a very good record in this contest as you can see for yourself below.  It appears that you can ignore the 9/4 trade press quote for RED MIST (Frankel representative) who has already been the subject of plenty of support, with 15/8 being a more likely return.  In case that does not appear as a great differential between the two prices, the difference is roughly the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 6/1.  BOLD REASON and SAM GOLD hail from the powerful Gosden and Varian yards respectively and have to be included in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have won this contest, whilst 17 market leaders have reach the frame during the study period.

 

7.40: ‘Tapwater’ (Michael Attwater) does not grab headlines very often but with his last two runners have been saddled to winning effect at 20/1 & 7/2, the chance of PROFESSOR is respected, though SULTAN BAYBARS (one of eight booked rides for SDS with good chances today) should take the beating in all honesty.  Five of Roger Varian’s last six winners (via 14 raiders) have been returned as favourites, with the other gold medallist returned at just 2/1.   FOX TROTTER handles the ground and with 4/1 freely available at the time of writing, punters might view Brian Meehan’s Bushranger gelding as an each way ‘bet to nothing’ investment.  For new readers, the term ‘bet to nothing’ basically means that punters would receive their money back if the selection is placed, even if it has not won.  As horses have to finish in the first two in this event because there only six entries, one quarter of the odds are offered as place terms, whereby 4/1 represents a ‘bet to nothing’ if Fox Trotter finishes second, if a price of 4/1 has been secured.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourites (unusually) finished out of the frame finishing fourth behind horses that filled the frame having been returned at 5/1, 5/1 & 7/1.

 

8.10: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 7-3 during the last 14 years.  Four-year-olds are around the 11/8 mark to increase their recent dominance before the form book is consulted. Although Michael Bell’s three winners were gained on the Thursday of this two day meeting during the last five years, Michael’s five-year-old representative TAPER TANTRUM has been the subject of a little support overnight and if Louis Steward is allowed to set his own fractions aboard the tentative selection, Michael could be celebrating another success.  Life is full of ‘ups and downs’ as a trainer and for Michael, this would be a poignant winner, having attended the funeral of Mercy Rimell yesterday.  Michael started his career with the team in the west-country and his eulogy yesterday produced lots of laughter and tears, with only some of it (seemingly) being printable.  Those of us who have been in the game for over 50 years grew up on the great careers of Fred & Mercy who took no prisoners in those days when political correctness had no place in a ‘hard working’ environment!  It was no different at Fred Winter’s stable and certainly not with Arthur Stephenson ‘oop north’ who would have had little or no time for the way things pan out today.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that CLOWANCE ONE and WEST DRIVE should offer challenges to TAPER TANTRUM at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won during the last twenty years alongside two joint favourites.  13 of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/3—Taper Tantrum (good to firm)

 

8.40: Horses carrying 9-5 or more have won all three renewals whist securing six of the eight available Placepot positions via 56% of the total number of runners. The stats suggest that the likes of ALSVINDER and FRANCISCO should wrap up the Placepot for us if we were live going into the finale.  If however, the ground has cut up really badly, the chance of STONEYFORD LANE would improve to the point of being included in the Placepot equation. All that said, I would not have a bet from a win perspective in this contest with your money!

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured one medal of each colour whilst securing Placepot poisitions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Seve (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Richard Hannon (4/27 – loss of 8 points)

3—Michael Attwater (No previous runners this season at Sandown)

3—Tony Carroll (No previous runners)

3—Brian Meehan (2/8 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Roger Varian (5/9 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Karl Burke (3/7 – Profit of 24 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £107.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Catterick: £41.50 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Leicester: £11.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £69.80 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2017

Tuesday's Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Held up mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong, no impression.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance a week ago in an amateur riders' contest, showing he can get the job done without some wily old pro cajoling him along, which is just as well as this race is for apprentice jockeys!

He's up 6lbs for that win LTO, but today's rider takes 5 off, so we shouldn't be weighted out of contention at least, but I'm really more interested in how this race fits trainer Mick Easterby's MO, as this horse flagged up in several different parts of my database when I was compiling my daily shortlist, so here goes...

Let's start with Mr Easterby's recent record at this track, shall we? Well, over the last 3 (including this one) seasons, his Class 5/6 handicappers are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 21.45pts (+58% ROI) profit here in North Yorkshire, from which...

  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.9pts (+47.4%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 15/2 are 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.25pts (+127.6%)
  • those last seen 2 to 15 days ago are 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.73pts (+115.2%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 5/10 (50%) for 16.05pts (+160.5%)
  • over this 1m4f C&D : 2/4 (50%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%)
  • and LTO winners are also 2/4 (50%), but for 8.93pts (+223.3%)

Which in itself is fairly compelling, but let's add some more meat to the bones by looking at the yard's quick returners ie those who last raced just 3 to 7 days earlier and over the last two years, such runners are 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.8% ROI) : another set of impressive figures, which include...

  • handicappers at 18/75 (24%) for 55.8pts (+74.4%)
  • males at 17/65 (26.2%) for 59.5pts (+91.5%)
  • those priced 9/4 to 12/1 are 18/52 (34.6%) for 78.8pts (+151.5%)
  • at class 6 : 4/16 (25%) for 15.84pts (+99%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 3.15pts (+26.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.8pts (+105.6%)

But wait, there's yet more to come...for, in handicaps since 2010, Mick Easterby's runners priced at 11/4 to 8/1 who won LTO and are now running at a venue where they have previously won over course and distance = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+50.6% ROI), and of those 35 runners, those who won over C&D LTO are 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.9pts (+60.5%)

And finally (!) before I go...as this is an apprentices' race, the Easterby handicappers ridden by a 5lb claimer at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 37/215 (17.2% SR) for 113.5pts (+52.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which...

  • at Class 6 : 14/37 (37.8%) for 82.1pts (+221.9&%)
  • LTO winners are 10/35 (28.6%) for 43.7pts (+124.7%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO : 5/17 (29.4%) for 12.3pts (+72.2%)
  • here at Catterick : 6/12 (50%) for 31.2pts (+259.6%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO win : 2/5 (40%) for 3.37pts (+67.4%)

...all of which points us to...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 9/2 BOG which was available in at least half a dozen places at 6.00pm on Monday, whilst those able to do should grab the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 19th

SANDOWN - JULY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £45.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.05): 2 (Blitz), 3 (Tahoo) & 1 (Ascot Day)

Leg 2 (6.35): 7 (Simply Breathless), 1 (Cheeky Rascal) & 3 (Macaque)

Leg 3 (7.05): 3 (Harba) & 1 (Milton Jack)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Make Time), 4 (Selection) & 5 (Volatile)

Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Sir Plato) & 2 (Eynhallow)

Leg 6 (8.40): 2 (Veiled Secret), 1 (Sussex Ranger) & 8 (Magic Beans)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.05: The first thing to point out is that there are no course winners involved at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought that I had forgotten to include such information!  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals whilst claiming nine of the thirteen available toteplacepot positions stats which bring the top three runners in the handicap into play.  BLITZ and ASCOT DAY make the most appeal on this occasion, with TAHOO offered up as the overnight reserve.  Fair Cop is a decent filly but unless possible thundery showers arrive pre flag fall, the ground will be plenty lively enough for Andrew Balding’s Exceed And Excel representative.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites and finished in the frame, with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

 

6.35: SIMPLY BREATHLESS gives Clive Cox (saddles Blitz in the opening event) a distinct possibility of landing a double on the first two races on the card.  It’s unusual for bookmakers to be in almost total agreement on every price for each runner but that is what I am witnessing this morning, with thunder crashing all around as I digest the 3/1 quote about the selection.  If these storms move in an easterly direction, you should look out for any going changes at Sandown before placing any best, that’s for sure.  CHEEKY RASCAL has to enter the equation following a fine effort after becoming unbalanced at Epsom, doing all his best work late doors in that event over this trip.  MACAQUE is entitled to improve a great deal for his Salisbury debut.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

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7.05: It’s about time I offered some stats for the meeting based on the last five years.  The average Placepot dividend paid £152.72, whilst 14 favourites have won via 30 races during the study period.  26/30 gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 12/1.  Just ‘six spots‘ separate the top nine horses (of 14 in total) in this Class 5 three-year-old contest, though two of those runners drop into the lower section of the handicap via jockey claims.  William Haggas appears to have placed his Frankel filly HARBA to good effect here in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially if the storms swerve the Esher area.  MILBURN JACK completes the three runners on the card for Clive Cox and it’s difficult to imagine the popular trainer going home empty handed from the meeting.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 5/1**) winners.

 

7.40: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date, whilst the juniors have edged in front 6-5 in terms of securing Placepot positions.   MAKE TIME appears to be the pick of the junior representatives on this occasion though if a muddling pace ensues, don’t be surprised if fellow three-year-old VOLATILE outruns his price in this five runner affair.  Four-year-old SELECTION demands plenty of respect and enters the Placepot equation for sure.

Favourite factor: All six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions with three gold medals having been secured thus far.

 

8.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have secured all 13 available toteplacepot positions, though the trend is of no use this time around with all nine runners have been allotted 9-2 or more.  That said, the bottom horse in the handicap is set to be ridden by a claiming pilot whereby we only have to assess 8/9 entries this time around.  Rod Millman is the only trainer to have saddled more than one winner at this meeting during the last five years and his only possible runner at the weekend was SIR PLATO.  Having saddled a winner under the other code at Worcester last night, Rod will be in a joyous mood if he can notch a double within 24 hours.  Others from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap to consider include OKOOL and EYNHALLOW who might prove difficult to beat if the ground eases a fraction.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five market leaders have finished in the frame, one of which won its respective event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites.

 

8.40: Sir Mark Prescott earns plenty of respect in these staying events, especially in the three-year-old sector.  VEILED SECRET has the look of a typical successful Prescott raid, with connections possibly only having to fear SUSSEX RANGER and the each way alternative option MAGIC BEANS in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have ‘troubled the judge’ though the only two (Even money & 8/11) winners during the period mean that favourites come into the Placepot finale on a hat trick.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Clive Cox (2/14 – Profit of 12 points)

3—Richard Hannon (3/33 – loss of 20 points)

3—Richard Hughes (0/5)

2—Andrew Balding (0/11)

2—John Best (0/3)

2—Karl Burke (3/5 – Profit of 26 points)

2—Robert Cowell (0/2)

2—John Gallagher (0/3)

2—William Haggas (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—William Muir (0/2)

2—Pat Phelan (0/2)

2—Ed Walker (0/2)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £17.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £39,448.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 placed

Lingfield (mix of Turf & A/W): £117.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £310.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 12

CATTERICK - JULY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £37.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Second Page) & 4 (Staff College)

Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Mraseel), 6 (Lexington Grace) & 7 (Flo’s Melody)

Leg 3 (3.20): 6 (Just For The Craic), 9 (Kikini Bamalaam) & 4 (Devil Or Angel)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Kiribati), 5 (Lady In Question) & 1 (Heir Of Excitement)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Project Bluebook) & 2 (Tenzing Norgay)

Leg 6 (5.05): 1 (Bernie’s Boy) & 6 (Danot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Three-year-olds have won all six renewals thus far and with

five of the six entries hailing from the junior ranks again, the trend look set to continue.  Seven pound claimer Rossa Ryan has ridden four of his five winners for Richard Hannon and it’s worth noting that overnight money has been recorded for the relevant declaration here, namely SECOND PAGE.  Sir Mark Prescott is probably lining up a handicap assault with PIEDITA after this seasonal debut, whereby STAFF COLLEGE appears to be more of a threat to the selection.  That said, Sir Mark saddled the first two winners of this event a few years back whereby any support in the market later this morning could be worth heeding.

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (10//1, 8/11 & 1/7) winners.

 

2.45: A trappy looking contest and no mistake, though money for the James Tate declaration MRASEEL could make a mockery of that statement, especially if the Sir Prancealot filly is well supported over the next few hours.  James has saddled four of his last 13 runners to winning effect, whilst another quartet of representatives filled the frame (exact science) during the relevant period.  Others for the Placepot mix include LEXINGTON GRACE and FLO’S MELODY, the latter named Richard Fahey raider looking to have been given a reasonable mark for her handicap debut.

Favourite factor: This is a new (Nursery) event on the Catterick card.

 

3.20: I have not enjoyed a great deal of luck supporting David Evans market leaders down the years whereby I will pass over TIE EM UP TEL, from a win perspective at the very least.  According to my abacus, the top weight does not have much in hand of JUST FOR THE CRAIC anyway, whilst DEVIL OR ANGEL is also a plausible alternative (from a value for money perspective) according to the gospel of yours truly.  A race to watch apart from the interest of our favourite wager I’ll wager, though money for the Dalgleish representative KIKINI BAMALAAM would be interesting, especially with Keith posting plenty of winners of late.

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Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at odds of 6/5 & 4/7.  Indeed, the biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 4/1.

 

3.55: Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, including the 20/1 gold medallist in 2013 who was one of three horses which qualified via the handicap trends.  Only two horses qualify from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap this time around, with Mark Johnston’s KIRIBATI seemingly the pick of the pair by some margin.  Further up the weights, chances could be offered to the likes of HEIR OF EXCITEMENT and LADY IN QUESTION whose 6/1 quote in the trade press could look fanciful by the time that flag fall arrives.  This is a ‘short field’ event, a term which is used to describe a race with 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 16 favourites during the last 15 years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.  The eleven previous winners had been returned at odds of 9/1 or less before the rogue 20/1 winner in 2013 was cheered home by the majority of the layers.  Fortunately, the last three (15/8, 9/4 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed to get the race back on course for investors.

 

4.30: Eight of the last 10 winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds come to the gig on a six timer.  Fast ground course winner PROJECT BLUEBOOK and TENZING NORGAY are the two horses in the race that possess ticks in both boxes.  The pair are listed in order of preference at the time of writing though just like Sir Mark Prescott’s other runner on the card (2.10), I’m inclined to invariably give his runners a chance, especially in marathon trips such as in this event.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 15 years, whilst nine market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Project Bluebook (good to firm)

 

4.50: 10 of the last 13 gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 8-13.  Seven horses run from the ‘superior sector’ of the handicap according to my stats, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be BERNIE’S BOY and DANOT.  Both horses hail from in-form trainers who have rewarded followers wonderfully well in terms of starting prices of late.  As an example, Roger Fell (BERNIE’S BOY) has saddled four of his last seven runners to winning effect which have produced level stake profits of 56 points!  Jedd O’Keeffe (DANOT) has also been in hot form and this pair represent value for money, way above their rivals in the ‘lucky last’.

Favourite factor: Two (100/30** & 4/1**) favourites have obliged via 14 renewals to date during which time, seven of the 16 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Nine of the 14 winners ranged between odds of 13/2 and 28/1.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Grey Destiny (good)

2/11—Bold Spirit (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—John Quinn (1/13- loss of 11 points)

4—Richard Fahey (4/19—Profit of 8 points)

3—Anthony Brittain (0/5)

3—Scott Dixon (1/9 – loss of 5 points)

3—Mark Johnston (3/10 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Ollie Pears (0/5)

2—Eric Alston (0/2)

2—Gillian Boanas (No previous runners)

2—Ruth Carr (4/15 – Profit of 11 points)

2—Mick Channon (No previous runners)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/8)

2—David Evans (0/3)

2—Roger Fell (0/4)

2—Richard Hannon (0/2)

2—David O’Meara (3/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (0/1)

2—Kevin Ryan (3/7 (Profit of 7 points)

2—Karen Tutty (0/6)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

71 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £159.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £688.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £2,345.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £659.30 – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 5

BATH – JULY 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £523.60 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 5 (Perusing The Dream) & 7 (Aquadabra)

Leg 2 (6.30): 6 (Shumato), 4 (Dyllan) & 3 (Handytalk)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Black Trilby) & 4 (Wonderfullo)

Leg 4 (7.30): 4 (Fujaira Birdge), 2 (I’vegotthepower) & 6 (Pattie)

Leg 5 (8.00): 2 (Daimochi), 3 (X Rated) & 1 (Attain)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Fanfare) & 5 (Bicolour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.00: No trainer has more runners than Mick Channon on the card (four in total) and the trainer will be hoping that his Born To Sea filly AQUADABRA can get her head in front when it matters most after five half decent efforts.  Her chance has not been helped by the declaration of PERSUING THE DREAM who was beaten less than five lengths in the ‘Queen Mary’ a fortnight ago.  A repeat of that effort would surely be good enough to life this prize en route to better things.    Conditions will be the same as when DREAMBOARD ANNIE took the scalp of an odds on favourite over course and distance twelve days ago.

Favourite Factor: Last year’s 15/8 favourite was withdrawn at the start without time for a new market to be formed.  Horses reached the ‘short field’ frame when returned at 18/1 & 8/1, a result which went a long way to producing a half decent Placepot dividend (£523.60).  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

 

6.30: Roger Charlton can hardly put a foot wrong these days and there appears to be a golden opportunity for SFUMATO to add to his winning tally in this grade/company, the Bated Breath gelding having scored under fast conditions at Lingfield in August.  Ruth Carr is another handler enjoying life at present and Ruth’s northern raider DYLLAN has also been offered a winning chance.  I fancy this pair to finished ahead of Royal Mezyan, certainly form a value for money perspective looking at the trade press odds at the time of writing.  For the same reason, HANDYTALK completes my trio against the field.

Favourite Factor: The race could not have worked out more differently for the inaugural 7/2 joint favourites than was the case twelve months ago, with one of the market leaders winning the contest, whilst the other ‘jolly’ finished last of six.

Record of course winners in the second event on the card:

4/22—Silverrica (3 x firm & good to soft)

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1/1—Secret Potion (good to soft)

 

7.00: Only beaten five lengths in last year’s ‘Convivial’ at York, BLACK TRILBY has remained a maiden for longer than most of us would have predicted.  That said, Clive Cox has surely found the right race for his Helmet colt to go in the right direction now, possibly starting a winning run if the handicapper gives Clive’s March foal a fair mark following this event.  Balestra has been disappointing this season whereby Paul Cole’s WONDERFULLO might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite Factor:  The inaugural 5/4 market leader failed to score in a four runner 'win only' contest before last year’s 11/10 favourite finished out with the washing with the frame being filled by horses which were sent off at 9/4-40/1-14/1.

 

7.30: I guess the programme book for trainers to peruse looks that much clearer when you have saddled your last six runners to winning effect!  That’s what is relevant here regarding Roger Varian who has declared FUJAIRA BRIDGE with a chance of extending the tally here, though Roger was due to have earlier runners on the day if want to check out his up to date form!  I’m not too sure how many times Brian Meehan has ‘doubled up’ with his winners this season but that’s what Brian will hope happens relating to his recent Goodwood winner I’VEGOTTHEPOWER.  Pillar Of Society faces much different ground than when scoring at Windsor the last day, whereby PATTIE is preferred.

Favourite Factor:  This is a new race on the Bath card.

Record of course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—I’vegotthepower (firm)

 

8.00: It’s very rare that I oppose three-year-olds in this type of race, though ATTAIN boasts obvious claims with the fast ground in his favour, as is usually the case at my local racecourse.  That said, X RATED and DAIMOCHI look progressive types from the successful yards of Mark Johnston and Clive Cox respectively.  The two trainers have contrasting stats at Bath this season; well worth taking a look at the figures below.

Favourite Factor: This is another new event on the Bath programme.

Record of course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/5—Attain (firm)

1/1—Bayston Hill (firm)

 

8.30: Richard Hannon (FANFAIR) and Mark Johnston (BICOLOUR) should have the last leg of our favourite wrapped up between them, albeit I would not back either horse to actually win the race.  The event should not take a great deal of winning, though neither horse has convinced me that their maiden tags are about to be broken, albeit figuring prominently at the ‘elbow’ should not be beyond their capabilities.  Put it this way, I would far rather be a layer than a player in the contest, especially as nothing else make much appeal.  The race has ‘bookmakers result’ written all over it from my viewpoint.

Favourite Factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bath card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Mick Channon (2/12 – loss of 2 points)

4—Richard Hannon (6/19 – Profit of 11 points)

3—David Evans (0/13)

3—Mark Johnston (0/12)

3—Rod Millman (0/9)

3—Mark Usher (2/5 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/3)

2—Tony Carroll (0/7)

2—Clive Cox (4/9 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Seamus Durack (0/3)

2—Charlie Hills (2/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (0/2)

2—Jamie Osborne (0/5)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £96.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Thirsk: This is a new meeting on the calendar

Kempton: £247.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Perth: £153.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £109.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2017

Friday's Result :

8.50 Goodwood : Zambesi Queen @ 11/4 BOG non-runner

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Globetrotter3/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has finished 3131 in his last four outings and has a win and 2 places from 3 efforts over 2m/2m0.5f. So he's clearly in good nick and gets the trip well enough.

He's trained by Iain Jardine, whose non-NH runners are 70/512 (13.7% SR) for 244.1pts (+47.7% ROI) if backed blindly over the last two years, with the following data subsets of relevance today...

  • handicappers are 65/447 (14.5%) for 281.4pts (+63%)
  • males are 46/349 (13.2%) for 254.2pts (+72.9%)
  • at class 5 : 27/176 (15.3%) for 84.7pts (+48.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 21/132 (15.9%) for 75.2pts (+57%)
  • those who last ran 6-10 days earlier are 18/84 (21.4%) for 96.8pts (+115.3%)
  • over trips of 1m5f to 2m0.5f : 21/71 (29.6%) for 112.5pts (+158.5%)
  • LTO winners are 18/61 (29.5%) for 30.2pts (+49.5%)
  • and on Soft ground : 4/22 (18.2%) for 11.7pts (+53.1%)

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Mr Globetrotter3/1 BOG which was offered by Betfred, Totesport and Marathon at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Placepot Pointers – Friday June 2

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last six years:

2016: £339.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £243.65 - 39 favourites - 13 winners - 9 placed - 17 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (De Bruyne Horse) & 1 (Cardsharp)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (G K Chesterton), 10 (Mutarakez) & 2 (Sixties Groove)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Highland Reel) & 10 (Journey)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Brorocco), 9 (Grapevine) & 5 (Fidaawy)

Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Rhododendron), 4 (Enable) & 7 (Natavia)

Leg 6 (5.15): 4 (Seven Heavens) & 6 (Sutter Country)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured four renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event during the last 15 years and in CARDSHARP, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced three of the last four winners, with DE BRUYNE HORSE boasting obvious claims, notwithstanding Richard’s second string CAMPION. There was nothing much to enthuse over when DE BRUYNE HORSE ran on debut, though his subsequent effort when ripping a Ripon race apart is logged in the memory bank. ZAP deserves his place in the line-up but I will adhere to the trainer trends which will not come as a shock to regular readers!

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 13 of the last 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7 (6 ran-soft)

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as ten vintage representatives have won during the last nineteen years (including eight of the last fifteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  This all said, five-year-olds have fought back of late, having claimed four of the last seven contests. 12 of the last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of G K CHESTERTON, MUTARAKEZ and SIXTIES GROOVE, the lone course winner in the field.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade though that said, all ten winners have scored at a top price of 12/1 which in the context of a competitive handicap is a half decent return for punters. Six of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

7-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the second event on the Oaks card:

1/1—Sixties Groove (good)

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3.10: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eighteen renewals, with FRONTIERSMAN expected to lead the other vintage representatives home.  Whether any of them can beat HIGHLAND REEL and (possibly) JOURNEY is open to doubt. With Aidan O’Brien having won seven of the last twelve renewals, selecting the much travelled HIGHLAND REEL is hardly a mind-blowing manouvre. JOURNEY has scope for improvement as has FRONTIERSMAN, but they might have to improve quicker than the relevant connections expect to lower the colours of the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-4-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the Coronation Cup:

1/1--Elbereth (good)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last nineteen renewals, whilst eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of BROROCCO, course and distance winner GRAPEVINE and FIDAAWY.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last nineteen years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites (including last year) have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

1-4-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Great Hall (good)

2/7—What About Carlo (good & heavy)

1/2—Innocent Touch (good)

1/1—Examiner (good to soft)

1/1—Grapevine (good to soft)

1/1—Brorocco (good)

2/4—Imshivalla (good & good to soft)

 

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  This second classic race of the season comes down to a flip of the coin basically, with 5/6 (thereabouts) on offer at the time of writing about RHODODENDRON.  There is a school of thought that suggests that Aidan O'Brien will win his seventh Oaks with little fuss though John Gosden is particularly sweet on his Nathaniel filly ENABLE, with John waxing lyrical about his representative in recent weeks. NATAVIA is another Nathanial contender and there could have been any amount of further scope for Roger Charlton to have worked on in the lead up to the contest. SOBETSU receives the reserve nomination at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Only 17 of the 122 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 19 years.  On the other hand, five of the last nine winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent years.  14 of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

4-9-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

5.15: Ten of the last eleven winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and though that trend is guaranteed to be extended this time around, I have left the stat in for your records. Whatever happens to John Gosden’s two runners in the Oaks, I fancy the stable to land the Placepot finale with SEVEN HEAVENS, chiefly at the expense of SUTTER COUNTRY.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via nineteen renewals, taking into account that the favourite nine years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (13/86 (+25)

6—John Gosden (9/33 – loss of 4 points)

6—Aidan O’Brien (5/32 – Profit of 32 points)

5—Mark Johnston (14/113 – loss of 42 points)

4—Charlie Appleby (4.23 – loss of 8 points)

4—Richard Hannon (10/59 – loss of 13 points)

3—Andrew Balding (15/106 – Slight profit)

2—Ralph Beckett (9/43 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Clive Cox (2/17 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Simon Dow (No runners)

2—Charlie Hills (3.27 – loss of 18 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (4/30 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/11 – loss of five points)

2—Jeremy Noseda (loss of 3 points)

2—Archie Watson (No runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

21 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £26.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Catterick: £35.00 – 7 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Doncaster: £10,288.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Goodwood: £176.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £15.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 25

SANDOWN – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £311.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 10 (Silver Ghost), 4 (Boycie), 5 (Icebuster) & 12 (The Major)

Leg 2 (6.30): 5 (Sound And Silence), 2 (Frozen Angel) & 1 (Chagati)

Leg 3 (7.05): 5 (Vent de Force), 2 (Big Orange) & 4 (Higher Power)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Chain Of Daisies)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Zainhom) & 2 (Rodaini)

Leg 6 (8.40): 10 (Timeless Art), 9 (Makzeem) & 8 (Midhmaar)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 28 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the last eight winners (16/1-10/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are seven representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SILVER GHOST, BOYSIE and THE MAJOR.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, ICEBUSTER could claim another course victory.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites thus far have snared give gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the course winners in the opening race: 

1/5—Icebuster (good)

1/2—Kath’s Legacy (good to firm)

1/7—Jack Of Dimaonds (good)

 

6.30: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last ten renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason that the team is not represented this year, though I have left the stats in for my (our) records.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that although Charlie Appleby’s impressive unbeaten run with his early juveniles has ended, SOUND AND SILENCE justified favouritism at Newmarket on the first day at school and though the Exceed And Excel colt faces a tough opponent here in FROZEN ANGEL, I will stick with the unbeaten form line tonight.  Tom Dascombe (Frozen Angel) does not run many two-year-olds at the track which you can look at in two different ways.  All eight of his juveniles have been beaten here during the last five years but on the other hand, the trainer must think a great deal of his impressive Ascot winner to take on this difficult assignment.  CHAGATI is the potential big improver in the field, albeit his Bath victory leaves a lot to work on in respect of the opposition.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby CHAGATI is included in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Five of the last nineteen favourites have won whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

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7.05: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 32 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  Even now, just one four-year-old has been offered the green light, namely the 40/1 outsider Berghain.  Regular readers will know that staying events leave yours truly luke-warm at best, and this is another contest which failed to light the blue touch paper from my viewpoint.  If we have to bank on the likes of BIG ORANGE to justify favouritism in a Group 3 event then we are in trouble and that is the scenario that has been set before us on this occasion.  At 12/1, VENT DE FORCE make more appeal (especially) from an each way/Placepot perspective, particularly as Hughie Morrison has his horses in good nick just now, four of his last eleven runners having scored.  HIGHER POWER is named ahead of Quest For More in receipt of seven pounds from the long standing Roger Charlton raider.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Henry II’ contest: 

2/3—Vent De Force (good to firm & good to soft)

 

7.40: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 16 of the last 20 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 13 victories during the extended study period, which includes eleven of the last fifteen contests.  SO MI DAR was pulled out of a race at York last week and these conditions are far more favourable in what appears to be an easier contest.  As long as she does not appear too fresh in the preliminaries (she can pull hard through her races), all should be well en route to better things this summer.  Autocratic deserves another chance at this level, though slight preference is for five-year-old CHAIN OF DAISIES in terms of being the main threat to SO MI DAR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 17 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Sandown record of course winners in the ‘Brigadier Gerard’: 

1/1—Autocratic (good to firm)

1/1—Baydar (good to soft)

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

8.10: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eleven winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin) given Michael's ten successes down the years.  ZAINHOM has been offered the green light on this occasion, though this is a tough enough ask on just his fifth assignment.  That said, Michael's Street Cry colt was a good winner at York last year (albeit under softer conditions), whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is expected to score from RODAINI.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty years. Fourteen of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 24 gold medals (including nine of the last fifteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion should prove to be TIMELESS ART, MAKZZEM and MIDHMAAR in a fascinating toteplacepot finale.  Karl Burke’s northern raider TIMELESS ART (9/1 in places) is the value for money call from a win perspective, especially with five pound claimer Clifford Lee in the saddle, the young pilot having steered two of his last seven mounts to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last thirteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

2/7—Secret Art (good & soft)

2/2—Sir Roderic (Good & good to soft)

1/4—Laidback Romeo (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Richard Hannon (0/5)

3—Rod Millman (No runners)

2—Michael Bell (No runners)

2—Karl Burke (No runners)

2—Henry Candy (No runners)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Clive Cox (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Ed Dunlop (No runners)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/4)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)

2—James Tate (No runners)

2—Chris Wall (0/1)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £111.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £121.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Warwick: £121.90 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £37.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 11th

CHESTER – MAY 11 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £104.12 - 40 favourites - 13 won - 16 placed - 11 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Khairaat, 7 (Brorocco) & 1 (Berkshire)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Poet’s Word) & 1 (Deauville)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sharp Defence), 7 (Rebel De Lope) & 9 (Aventinus)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Tamleek), 2 (Cunco) & 1 (Count Octave)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Dahik) & 2 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 6 (4.35): 12 (Zamjar), 10 (Full Intention) & 15 (The Amber Fort)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eleven renewals of this event, though four-year-olds have claimed four of the last six, with the relevant two entries attempting to land a hat trick between them on behalf of the vintage.  KHAIRAAT and BROROCCO are the horses in question with Sir Michael Stoute (KHAIRAAT) looking for compensation for last year’s beaten favourite in the contest.  The only five-year-old in the line up is Parish Boy who looks to have plenty to do via the form which suggests that BERKSHIRE (withdrawn from a race at Newmarket at the weekend) could be the main threat to the four-year-olds on parade.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Mistiroc (good)

2/7—Sennockian Star (good to firm & good to soft)

1/2—Gabrial’s King (good)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): I opened last year’s analysis with these words; Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen contests whereby I am 'baffled of Bristol' writing this column, with vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence.  Things are much brighter this time around with vintage representatives of offer at 1/2 (before the form book is taken into consideration) with four relevant horses having been entered today.  It could be argued that DEAUVILLE only needs to repeat his effort in the ‘Gordon Richards’ at Sandown recently to go one better in a similar contest though that said, Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared POET’S WORD. Sir Michael Stoute has a line on the Gordon Richards form line having saddled the winner of that event.  Throw Royal Artillery into the ring as well and we have a conundrum that I have yet to fully assess from a win perspective. The first named pair will represent yours truly given that Royal Artillery is asked to make up five lengths on Deauville via the Sandown contest, though I doubt there will be that much daylight between the pair at the business end of the race this time around.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (10 winners).  12 of the last 18 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

Chester record of course winners in the second race:

1/8—Gabrial (good to firm)

 

3.00: Ten of the last fifteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with SHARP DEFENCE, REBEL DE LOPE and (possibly) AVENTINUS representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  The latter named Hugo Palmer raider has not been fortunate with the draw (10/11) which prevents me from backing the recent Lingfield winner from a win perspective, though a Placepot position might still be there for the taking.  The other pair are listed in marginal order of preference, with connections of all three runners fearing the John Gosden entry Via Egnatia more than most I’ll wager.  His trap one position gives John’s Newmarket winner a definite squeak, especially as the horse he trounced by seven lengths that day (Never Surrender) won here yesterday.  That said, I will adhere to my self-confessed ‘anorak tendency’ by nominating the sporting trio against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include six winners.  That said, the figures include both the 7/2 joint favourites who failed to trouble the judge twelve months ago.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Arc Royal (good)

 

3.35 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last ten renewals and the trainer obviously intends to snare the swag here being responsible for four of the eight declarations.  I invariably question the thoughts of the trainer in such circumstances because I have to believe that Aidan is not convinced that he has a definite winner within the quartet, having paid the expenses for the others to travel over from Ireland.  Given that point, value for money might lie elsewhere, with TAMLEEK, CUNCO and COUNT OCTAVE waving the flag for the ‘home guard’.  Let’s go for it!

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years, statistics which include six (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

 

4.05: Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, yet the trainer (unusually) is not represented on this occasion.  It could just be that Richard spied the Hamdan Al Maktoum raider DAHIK in the mix last weekend and thought better of taking on the Doncaster runner up.  The 11/8 quote in the trade press about Roger Varian’s Society Rock colt could look a shade fanciful come post time, with 10/11 on offer almost right across the board at the time of writing.  The differential between 11/8 and 10/11 might not look that wide, though the percentages equate to the same difference between a horse being backed in from 5/1 to 11/4.  If you are new to the racing game and want that differential explained, just send me a message via my Twitter page and I will be happy to oblige.  As for the potential danger to the projected favourite in this event, only DRAGONS TAIL makes any appeal in a race in which market leaders boast a fine record (see stats below).

Favourite factor: 17 of the 21 favourites during the last 18 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: 12 of the previous 17 winners had carried weights of 9-0 or less which led yours truly to offer Justice Angel as the first horse to consider last year before David Elsworth’s representative won at 11/2.  Hoping for a repeat performance here, I’ll name ZAMJAR (drawn 1 of 13 remaining runners in the field), FULL INTENTION (6) and THE AMBER FORT (3) against the field.  The reserve nomination is awarded to TURANGA LEELA despite having been drawn in stall 12.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

5-6-7 (11 ran-good)

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

 

Chester record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Leontas (good)

1.1—Sayesse (good to soft)

1/1—Turanga Leela (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chester card on Thursday – followed by their figures at the track on Wednesday:

9 runners – Tom Dascombe (0/5 yesterday)

6—David Evans (1/4 – Profit of 1 point)

5—Richard Fahey (0/5)

5—Aidan O’Brien (0/1)

4—Mark Johnston (0/4)

3—Andrew Balding (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

3—John Gosden (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Ian Williams (0/1)

2—Mick Channon (---)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/1)

2—David O’Meara (---)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/1)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (---)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £6.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £36.70 - 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Worcester: £112.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 11th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

1.50 Chester : Requinto Dawn @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 Took keen hold tracked leaders, ridden and weakened final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capla Dancer5/2 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old filly who was a winner on her only previous outing, when scoring at 66/1 over this trip and at this class under today's jockey, Joey Haynes, three weeks ago at relatively-nearby Ripon.

She flagged up in my preliminary studies on three separate data strands as I'll (hopefully) briefly explain now.

The first thing I had in mind was quick returning big priced winners, then there the more obvious trainer jockey combo and then finally the sire stats, so let's look at all three a little more closely.

1. Horses running at the same class and trip as a last time out win at odds of 25/1 to 66/1, 11 to 45 days ago are 29/189 (15.3% SR) for 73pts (+38.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2013.

2. The Karl Burke / Joey Haines trainer/jockey partnership currently has 63 winners from 452 attempts (13.9% SR) generating level stake profits at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation to BOG) of some 360.4pts (79.7% ROI).

Please bear in mind that this P/L figure and those that follow below are somewhat skewed by that big price win by Capla Dancer LTO, but that doesn't detract from the viability of the data, as from those 452 runners...

  • those running on turf are 47/330 (14.2%) for 225.5pts (+68.3%)
  • females are 30/183 (16.4%) for 386.5pts (+211.2%)
  • those racing over 5 to 6 furlongs are 20/143 (14%) for 242.54pts (+169.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/138 (23.9%) for 450.3pts (+326.3%)
  • in non-hcps : 27/132 (20.5%) for 387.1pts (+293.2%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 15/105 (14.3%) for 205.4pts (+195.6%)

3. She's by Red Jazz, a first season sire, but whose Class 5 turf runners are already 3 from 11 at this early stage of the campaign.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Capla Dancer5/2 BOG which was on offer in over a half dozen places at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but please take the 11/4 BOG offered by SkyBet if you're able. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.40 Wolverhampton : Tavener @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly finished 4223 in four starts last season in better races than this, including a 2.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap last time out. That was at Newmarket behind Island Vision who was subsequently placed third in a Listed contest.

A similar effort three classes lower should surely be enough, but don't just take my word for it, there are (as always!) some numbers to back up my thoughts!

She's trained by Richard Fahey, whose runners here at Catterick are 43/190 (22.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+23.6% ROI) since the start of the 2012 campaign, with the following data of particular relevance today...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 37/149 (24.8%) for 49.3pts (+33.1%)
  • those racing over 6 / 7 furlongs are 27/110 (24.5%) for 54.8pts (+49.8%)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 8/1 are 32/104 (30.8%) for 70.3pts (+67.6%)
  • those with 2 to 12 previous career runs are 28/89 (31.5%) for 44.9pts (+50.5%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 60.9pts (+74.3%)
  • females are 18/69 (26.1%) for 37.9pts (+55%)
  • at Class 5 : 18/68 (26.5%) for 16.2pts (+23.8%)
  • in maidens : 12/48 (25%) for 4.76pts (+9.9%)
  • and in female only races : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.96pts (+68.9%)

PLUS... backing all Richard Fahey's 2 to 5 yr olds on the Flat (turf) during the month of April has yielded 138 winners from 701 runners (19.7% SR) and 227.8pts (+32.5% ROI) of level stakes profits since the start of the 2009 season, of which...

  • Class 5 runners are 56/262 (21.4%) for 64.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 47/248 (19%) for 54.7pts (+22.1%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 56/222 (25.2%) for 94.9pts (+42.8%)
  • in maidens : 31/137 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+15.9%)
  • over the 7f trip : 21/93 (22.6%) for 52.8pts (+56.7%)
  • and in female only races : 13/52 (25%) for 58pts at an ROI of 111.5%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG with any one of the dozen firms quoting the same price at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.